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BDKJMU Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Playoff picture
(11-14-2017 06:48 AM)Potomac Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 11:03 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 01:47 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  As I see it, down to about 32 teams, with about 16 locks, with about 16 going for the remaining 8 spots..

Locks: (16)
-NDSU (9-1) (-13.5) @ ILSU (6-4)
-SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) @ SD (7-3)

-JMU (10-0)(-24)
-Elon (8-2)
-SBU (8-2) (-3.5) @ Maine (4-5)

-SUU (8-2) (-3.5) vs NAU (7-3)
-Weber State (8-2) (-24) vs Idaho St (4-6)

-Wofford (9-1) (AQ) @ S Carolina (7-3) (-20)
-Furman (7-3) (-1.5) @ Samford (6-3 vs Div I) winner.

-Central Arkansas (9-1) (Southland AQ) (-25.5) vs Abilene Christian (2-8).
-SHSU (8-1 vs Div 1) (-31.5) vs Houston Baptist (1-9).

-Jax St. (9-1) (OVC AQ) (-23.5) vs Tenn St (6-4).

-Monmouth (9-1) @ Kennesaw (9-1) (-7) winner (Big South AQ).

-CCSU (7-3) (NEC AQ) (-25) vs Robert Morris (2-8).

Patriot AQ
-Lehigh (4-6) (-15) if they beat 3-7 Lafayette. If not, Colgate (6-4), (-28) if they beat 1-9 G Town.

-San Diego (8-2) (Pioneer AQ) (-33) vs Marist (4-6)

Win and a lock, lose and still likely in (2)
-WIU (7-3) (-15) vs SIU (4-6) (WIU lost head to head to SD).

-SD (7-3) vs SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) If SD loses would be 7-4/4-4, losing last 3 & 4 of 5, but with I-A win, 1-3 vs playoff teams, 1 not bad loss to likely 6-5 ILSU, own head to head over WIU. If they don't get blown out by SDSU I think they're in.

Win and In, lose and out: (8)
-ILSU (6-4) vs NDSU (9-1) (-13.5)

-UNI (6-4) (-33) vs Ind St (0-10)

-UNH (7-3) (-3.5) @ Albany (3-7).

-UD (7-3) (-5.5) @ VU (4-6)

-NAU (7-3) @ SUU (8-2) (-3.5)

-Montana (7-3) @ Montana St (4-6) (pk)

-Nichols (8-2) @ SELA (5-5) (-3.5) (Nichols beat McNeese head to head).

-WCU (7-4) @ UNC (2-8) (-21.5)

Win and on bubble, lose and definitely out: (6)
-EWU (6-4) (-25) Portland St (0-10) (If 3 of the 8 above listed lose, which will happen (4 are underdogs & 1 is a pk), EWU is in.

-McNeese (7-2 vs Div I) (-24) @ Lamar (2-8) (didn't play a I-A, lost to both UCA & Nichols, dnp SHSU, not a single quality win). My guess is if 4 of the above 8 lose, McNeese might be the last team in.

-Austin Peay (7-4) (-7) vs EIU (6-4). AP 12 games, 4 losses. 3 I-A losses & loss to JSU, so if beat 6-4 EIU, in committee's eyes would be 8-1 but no wins vs playoff teams.

-Furman/Samford loser (would be 7-4, in Samford's case, 6-4 vs Div 1).

-Kennesaw/Monmouth loser would be 9-2 (8-2 in Kennesaw's case).

-Howard (7-3) (-6) @ Hampton (5-5) (10-0 NC A&T has clinched Celebration Bowl berth).
IF there are no upsets (according to 5dimes) then I think this would be the field:

JMU (11-0) (AQ)
SBU (9-2)
UD (8-3)
UNH (8-3)
Elon (8-3)

NDSU (10-1) (AQ)
SDSU (9-2)
WIU (8-3)
UNI (7-4)
SD (7-4)

SUU (9-2) (AQ)
Weber St (9-2)
Montana (8-3)
EWU (7-4)

UCA (10-1) (AQ)
SHSU (10-1)
McNeese St (9-2)

Wofford (9-2) (AQ)
Furman (8-3)

JSU (10-1) (AQ)

Kennesaw St (10-1) (AQ)

CCSU (8-3) (AQ)

Lehigh (5-6) (AQ)

San Diego (9-2) (AQ)

Out:
NAU (7-4)
Austin Peay (8-4)
Nichols St (8-3)
ILSU (6-5)
Samford (7-4/6-4 vs Div I)
Monmouth (9-2)
Howard (8-3) (Despite what Jay Walker says)..

But of course there's going to be some upsets on Sat, so we'll just have to wait and see..

Good post but the only one I semi-question is mcneese in before nicholls. Nicholls won the head to head vs mcneese, but yeah mcneese has more wins. Do they have a D2? Many SLC teams play D2 annually.

Well, according to 5dimes Nichols (8-2) @ SELA (5-5), SELA is -3.5, so I'm going by Nichols losing Sat.

Now if Nichols wins, they're in. Then who would get bumped?
-McNeese (8-2 vs Div I, 0-2 vs playoff (lost Nichols & UCA, dnp SHSU), not a single quality win)
-SD (7-4/4-4) 5th MVFC, would have lost final 3 and 4 of last 5, 1-3 vs playoff, got destroyed by NDSU.
-EWU (7-4/5-3) 4th Big Sky, 1-3 vs playoff, got destroyed by NDSU.

Earlier I would have said EWU or McNeese. Now I'd say SD would be out.
11-14-2017 01:18 PM
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Duke Dawg Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Playoff picture
(11-14-2017 01:18 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  
(11-14-2017 06:48 AM)Potomac Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 11:03 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 01:47 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  As I see it, down to about 32 teams, with about 16 locks, with about 16 going for the remaining 8 spots..

Locks: (16)
-NDSU (9-1) (-13.5) @ ILSU (6-4)
-SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) @ SD (7-3)

-JMU (10-0)(-24)
-Elon (8-2)
-SBU (8-2) (-3.5) @ Maine (4-5)

-SUU (8-2) (-3.5) vs NAU (7-3)
-Weber State (8-2) (-24) vs Idaho St (4-6)

-Wofford (9-1) (AQ) @ S Carolina (7-3) (-20)
-Furman (7-3) (-1.5) @ Samford (6-3 vs Div I) winner.

-Central Arkansas (9-1) (Southland AQ) (-25.5) vs Abilene Christian (2-8).
-SHSU (8-1 vs Div 1) (-31.5) vs Houston Baptist (1-9).

-Jax St. (9-1) (OVC AQ) (-23.5) vs Tenn St (6-4).

-Monmouth (9-1) @ Kennesaw (9-1) (-7) winner (Big South AQ).

-CCSU (7-3) (NEC AQ) (-25) vs Robert Morris (2-8).

Patriot AQ
-Lehigh (4-6) (-15) if they beat 3-7 Lafayette. If not, Colgate (6-4), (-28) if they beat 1-9 G Town.

-San Diego (8-2) (Pioneer AQ) (-33) vs Marist (4-6)

Win and a lock, lose and still likely in (2)
-WIU (7-3) (-15) vs SIU (4-6) (WIU lost head to head to SD).

-SD (7-3) vs SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) If SD loses would be 7-4/4-4, losing last 3 & 4 of 5, but with I-A win, 1-3 vs playoff teams, 1 not bad loss to likely 6-5 ILSU, own head to head over WIU. If they don't get blown out by SDSU I think they're in.

Win and In, lose and out: (8)
-ILSU (6-4) vs NDSU (9-1) (-13.5)

-UNI (6-4) (-33) vs Ind St (0-10)

-UNH (7-3) (-3.5) @ Albany (3-7).

-UD (7-3) (-5.5) @ VU (4-6)

-NAU (7-3) @ SUU (8-2) (-3.5)

-Montana (7-3) @ Montana St (4-6) (pk)

-Nichols (8-2) @ SELA (5-5) (-3.5) (Nichols beat McNeese head to head).

-WCU (7-4) @ UNC (2-8) (-21.5)

Win and on bubble, lose and definitely out: (6)
-EWU (6-4) (-25) Portland St (0-10) (If 3 of the 8 above listed lose, which will happen (4 are underdogs & 1 is a pk), EWU is in.

-McNeese (7-2 vs Div I) (-24) @ Lamar (2-8) (didn't play a I-A, lost to both UCA & Nichols, dnp SHSU, not a single quality win). My guess is if 4 of the above 8 lose, McNeese might be the last team in.

-Austin Peay (7-4) (-7) vs EIU (6-4). AP 12 games, 4 losses. 3 I-A losses & loss to JSU, so if beat 6-4 EIU, in committee's eyes would be 8-1 but no wins vs playoff teams.

-Furman/Samford loser (would be 7-4, in Samford's case, 6-4 vs Div 1).

-Kennesaw/Monmouth loser would be 9-2 (8-2 in Kennesaw's case).

-Howard (7-3) (-6) @ Hampton (5-5) (10-0 NC A&T has clinched Celebration Bowl berth).
IF there are no upsets (according to 5dimes) then I think this would be the field:

JMU (11-0) (AQ)
SBU (9-2)
UD (8-3)
UNH (8-3)
Elon (8-3)

NDSU (10-1) (AQ)
SDSU (9-2)
WIU (8-3)
UNI (7-4)
SD (7-4)

SUU (9-2) (AQ)
Weber St (9-2)
Montana (8-3)
EWU (7-4)

UCA (10-1) (AQ)
SHSU (10-1)
McNeese St (9-2)

Wofford (9-2) (AQ)
Furman (8-3)

JSU (10-1) (AQ)

Kennesaw St (10-1) (AQ)

CCSU (8-3) (AQ)

Lehigh (5-6) (AQ)

San Diego (9-2) (AQ)

Out:
NAU (7-4)
Austin Peay (8-4)
Nichols St (8-3)
ILSU (6-5)
Samford (7-4/6-4 vs Div I)
Monmouth (9-2)
Howard (8-3) (Despite what Jay Walker says)..

But of course there's going to be some upsets on Sat, so we'll just have to wait and see..

Good post but the only one I semi-question is mcneese in before nicholls. Nicholls won the head to head vs mcneese, but yeah mcneese has more wins. Do they have a D2? Many SLC teams play D2 annually.

Well, according to 5dimes Nichols (8-2) @ SELA (5-5), SELA is -3.5, so I'm going by Nichols losing Sat.

Now if Nichols wins, they're in. Then who would get bumped?
-McNeese (8-2 vs Div I, 0-2 vs playoff (lost Nichols & UCA, dnp SHSU), not a single quality win)
-SD (7-4/4-4) 5th MVFC, would have lost final 3 and 4 of last 5, 1-3 vs playoff, got destroyed by NDSU.
-EWU (7-4/5-3) 4th Big Sky, 1-3 vs playoff, got destroyed by NDSU.

Earlier I would have said EWU or McNeese. Now I'd say SD would be out.

when doing this, I think it's important to factor FBS game as well because almost any FBS school is a playoff level team.

If you do that, EWU is 1-4 and South Dakota is 2-3 (beat Bowling Green)
11-14-2017 01:28 PM
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Potomac Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Playoff picture
I think it's USD, EWU, Nicholls, McNeese in that order in terms of who is closest "on the bubble" of the four teams being discussed.
(This post was last modified: 11-14-2017 01:40 PM by Potomac.)
11-14-2017 01:40 PM
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BDKJMU Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Playoff picture
(11-14-2017 01:18 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  
(11-14-2017 06:48 AM)Potomac Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 11:03 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 01:47 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  As I see it, down to about 32 teams, with about 16 locks, with about 16 going for the remaining 8 spots..

Locks: (16)
-NDSU (9-1) (-13.5) @ ILSU (6-4)
-SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) @ SD (7-3)

-JMU (10-0)(-24)
-Elon (8-2)
-SBU (8-2) (-3.5) @ Maine (4-5)

-SUU (8-2) (-3.5) vs NAU (7-3)
-Weber State (8-2) (-24) vs Idaho St (4-6)

-Wofford (9-1) (AQ) @ S Carolina (7-3) (-20)
-Furman (7-3) (-1.5) @ Samford (6-3 vs Div I) winner.

-Central Arkansas (9-1) (Southland AQ) (-25.5) vs Abilene Christian (2-8).
-SHSU (8-1 vs Div 1) (-31.5) vs Houston Baptist (1-9).

-Jax St. (9-1) (OVC AQ) (-23.5) vs Tenn St (6-4).

-Monmouth (9-1) @ Kennesaw (9-1) (-7) winner (Big South AQ).

-CCSU (7-3) (NEC AQ) (-25) vs Robert Morris (2-8).

Patriot AQ
-Lehigh (4-6) (-15) if they beat 3-7 Lafayette. If not, Colgate (6-4), (-28) if they beat 1-9 G Town.

-San Diego (8-2) (Pioneer AQ) (-33) vs Marist (4-6)

Win and a lock, lose and still likely in (2)
-WIU (7-3) (-15) vs SIU (4-6) (WIU lost head to head to SD).

-SD (7-3) vs SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) If SD loses would be 7-4/4-4, losing last 3 & 4 of 5, but with I-A win, 1-3 vs playoff teams, 1 not bad loss to likely 6-5 ILSU, own head to head over WIU. If they don't get blown out by SDSU I think they're in.

Win and In, lose and out: (8)
-ILSU (6-4) vs NDSU (9-1) (-13.5)

-UNI (6-4) (-33) vs Ind St (0-10)

-UNH (7-3) (-3.5) @ Albany (3-7).

-UD (7-3) (-5.5) @ VU (4-6)

-NAU (7-3) @ SUU (8-2) (-3.5)

-Montana (7-3) @ Montana St (4-6) (pk)

-Nichols (8-2) @ SELA (5-5) (-3.5) (Nichols beat McNeese head to head).

-WCU (7-4) @ UNC (2-8) (-21.5)

Win and on bubble, lose and definitely out: (6)
-EWU (6-4) (-25) Portland St (0-10) (If 3 of the 8 above listed lose, which will happen (4 are underdogs & 1 is a pk), EWU is in.

-McNeese (7-2 vs Div I) (-24) @ Lamar (2-8) (didn't play a I-A, lost to both UCA & Nichols, dnp SHSU, not a single quality win). My guess is if 4 of the above 8 lose, McNeese might be the last team in.

-Austin Peay (7-4) (-7) vs EIU (6-4). AP 12 games, 4 losses. 3 I-A losses & loss to JSU, so if beat 6-4 EIU, in committee's eyes would be 8-1 but no wins vs playoff teams.

-Furman/Samford loser (would be 7-4, in Samford's case, 6-4 vs Div 1).

-Kennesaw/Monmouth loser would be 9-2 (8-2 in Kennesaw's case).

-Howard (7-3) (-6) @ Hampton (5-5) (10-0 NC A&T has clinched Celebration Bowl berth).
IF there are no upsets (according to 5dimes) then I think this would be the field:

JMU (11-0) (AQ)
SBU (9-2)
UD (8-3)
UNH (8-3)
Elon (8-3)

NDSU (10-1) (AQ)
SDSU (9-2)
WIU (8-3)
UNI (7-4)
SD (7-4)

SUU (9-2) (AQ)
Weber St (9-2)
Montana (8-3)
EWU (7-4)

UCA (10-1) (AQ)
SHSU (10-1)
McNeese St (9-2)

Wofford (9-2) (AQ)
Furman (8-3)

JSU (10-1) (AQ)

Kennesaw St (10-1) (AQ)

CCSU (8-3) (AQ)

Lehigh (5-6) (AQ)

San Diego (9-2) (AQ)

Out:
NAU (7-4)
Austin Peay (8-4)
Nichols St (8-3)
ILSU (6-5)
Samford (7-4/6-4 vs Div I)
Monmouth (9-2)
Howard (8-3) (Despite what Jay Walker says)..

But of course there's going to be some upsets on Sat, so we'll just have to wait and see..

Good post but the only one I semi-question is mcneese in before nicholls. Nicholls won the head to head vs mcneese, but yeah mcneese has more wins. Do they have a D2? Many SLC teams play D2 annually.

Well, according to 5dimes Nichols (8-2) @ SELA (5-5), SELA is -3.5, so I'm going by Nichols losing Sat.

Now if Nichols wins, they're in. Then who would get bumped?
-McNeese (8-2 vs Div I, 0-2 vs playoff (lost Nichols & UCA, dnp SHSU), not a single quality win)
-SD (7-4/4-4) 5th MVFC, would have lost final 3 and 4 of last 5, 1-3 vs playoff, got destroyed by NDSU.
-EWU (7-4/5-3) 4th Big Sky, 1-3 vs playoff, got destroyed by NDSU.

Earlier I would have said EWU or McNeese. Now I'd say SD would be out.
JSU blew out TST 36-6.
And Nichols just lost to SELA 21-17.
(This post was last modified: 11-16-2017 10:36 PM by BDKJMU.)
11-16-2017 10:34 PM
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EvanJ Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Playoff picture
The Top 24 FCS teams in the Sagarin have 7 from the Missouri Valley (I'm not saying they will get that many teams in), 5 from the Big Sky, 4 from the CAA, and 2 from the Southland. The Southland is eighth out of thirteen FCS conferences in the Sagarin. Stony Brook is 1 spot ahead of Eastern Washington, so Eastern Washington will have a better Sagarin if they win and Stony Brook loses. If Stony Brook loses, they have to hope they get treated as an 8-3 CAA team without noting that they didn't face James Madison or Elon.
11-17-2017 09:11 AM
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Jay M. Youix Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Playoff picture
(11-17-2017 09:11 AM)EvanJ Wrote:  The Top 24 FCS teams in the Sagarin have 7 from the Missouri Valley (I'm not saying they will get that many teams in), 5 from the Big Sky, 4 from the CAA, and 2 from the Southland. The Southland is eighth out of thirteen FCS conferences in the Sagarin. Stony Brook is 1 spot ahead of Eastern Washington, so Eastern Washington will have a better Sagarin if they win and Stony Brook loses. If Stony Brook loses, they have to hope they get treated as an 8-3 CAA team without noting that they didn't face James Madison or Elon.

Stony Brook is in, there is absolutely no way they're left at home.
11-17-2017 09:16 AM
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JMad03 Online
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Post: #27
RE: Playoff picture
(11-16-2017 10:34 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  
(11-14-2017 01:18 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  
(11-14-2017 06:48 AM)Potomac Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 11:03 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 01:47 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  As I see it, down to about 32 teams, with about 16 locks, with about 16 going for the remaining 8 spots..

Locks: (16)
-NDSU (9-1) (-13.5) @ ILSU (6-4)
-SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) @ SD (7-3)

-JMU (10-0)(-24)
-Elon (8-2)
-SBU (8-2) (-3.5) @ Maine (4-5)

-SUU (8-2) (-3.5) vs NAU (7-3)
-Weber State (8-2) (-24) vs Idaho St (4-6)

-Wofford (9-1) (AQ) @ S Carolina (7-3) (-20)
-Furman (7-3) (-1.5) @ Samford (6-3 vs Div I) winner.

-Central Arkansas (9-1) (Southland AQ) (-25.5) vs Abilene Christian (2-8).
-SHSU (8-1 vs Div 1) (-31.5) vs Houston Baptist (1-9).

-Jax St. (9-1) (OVC AQ) (-23.5) vs Tenn St (6-4).

-Monmouth (9-1) @ Kennesaw (9-1) (-7) winner (Big South AQ).

-CCSU (7-3) (NEC AQ) (-25) vs Robert Morris (2-8).

Patriot AQ
-Lehigh (4-6) (-15) if they beat 3-7 Lafayette. If not, Colgate (6-4), (-28) if they beat 1-9 G Town.

-San Diego (8-2) (Pioneer AQ) (-33) vs Marist (4-6)

Win and a lock, lose and still likely in (2)
-WIU (7-3) (-15) vs SIU (4-6) (WIU lost head to head to SD).

-SD (7-3) vs SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) If SD loses would be 7-4/4-4, losing last 3 & 4 of 5, but with I-A win, 1-3 vs playoff teams, 1 not bad loss to likely 6-5 ILSU, own head to head over WIU. If they don't get blown out by SDSU I think they're in.

Win and In, lose and out: (8)
-ILSU (6-4) vs NDSU (9-1) (-13.5)

-UNI (6-4) (-33) vs Ind St (0-10)

-UNH (7-3) (-3.5) @ Albany (3-7).

-UD (7-3) (-5.5) @ VU (4-6)

-NAU (7-3) @ SUU (8-2) (-3.5)

-Montana (7-3) @ Montana St (4-6) (pk)

-Nichols (8-2) @ SELA (5-5) (-3.5) (Nichols beat McNeese head to head).

-WCU (7-4) @ UNC (2-8) (-21.5)

Win and on bubble, lose and definitely out: (6)
-EWU (6-4) (-25) Portland St (0-10) (If 3 of the 8 above listed lose, which will happen (4 are underdogs & 1 is a pk), EWU is in.

-McNeese (7-2 vs Div I) (-24) @ Lamar (2-8) (didn't play a I-A, lost to both UCA & Nichols, dnp SHSU, not a single quality win). My guess is if 4 of the above 8 lose, McNeese might be the last team in.

-Austin Peay (7-4) (-7) vs EIU (6-4). AP 12 games, 4 losses. 3 I-A losses & loss to JSU, so if beat 6-4 EIU, in committee's eyes would be 8-1 but no wins vs playoff teams.

-Furman/Samford loser (would be 7-4, in Samford's case, 6-4 vs Div 1).

-Kennesaw/Monmouth loser would be 9-2 (8-2 in Kennesaw's case).

-Howard (7-3) (-6) @ Hampton (5-5) (10-0 NC A&T has clinched Celebration Bowl berth).
IF there are no upsets (according to 5dimes) then I think this would be the field:

JMU (11-0) (AQ)
SBU (9-2)
UD (8-3)
UNH (8-3)
Elon (8-3)

NDSU (10-1) (AQ)
SDSU (9-2)
WIU (8-3)
UNI (7-4)
SD (7-4)

SUU (9-2) (AQ)
Weber St (9-2)
Montana (8-3)
EWU (7-4)

UCA (10-1) (AQ)
SHSU (10-1)
McNeese St (9-2)

Wofford (9-2) (AQ)
Furman (8-3)

JSU (10-1) (AQ)

Kennesaw St (10-1) (AQ)

CCSU (8-3) (AQ)

Lehigh (5-6) (AQ)

San Diego (9-2) (AQ)

Out:
NAU (7-4)
Austin Peay (8-4)
Nichols St (8-3)
ILSU (6-5)
Samford (7-4/6-4 vs Div I)
Monmouth (9-2)
Howard (8-3) (Despite what Jay Walker says)..

But of course there's going to be some upsets on Sat, so we'll just have to wait and see..

Good post but the only one I semi-question is mcneese in before nicholls. Nicholls won the head to head vs mcneese, but yeah mcneese has more wins. Do they have a D2? Many SLC teams play D2 annually.

Well, according to 5dimes Nichols (8-2) @ SELA (5-5), SELA is -3.5, so I'm going by Nichols losing Sat.

Now if Nichols wins, they're in. Then who would get bumped?
-McNeese (8-2 vs Div I, 0-2 vs playoff (lost Nichols & UCA, dnp SHSU), not a single quality win)
-SD (7-4/4-4) 5th MVFC, would have lost final 3 and 4 of last 5, 1-3 vs playoff, got destroyed by NDSU.
-EWU (7-4/5-3) 4th Big Sky, 1-3 vs playoff, got destroyed by NDSU.

Earlier I would have said EWU or McNeese. Now I'd say SD would be out.
JSU blew out TST 36-6.
And Nichols just lost to SELA 21-17.

This game is just more proof how much of a joke the Southland truly is. Nichols didn't deserve to be in the playoffs and did the committee a huge favor by losing to a bad team. McNeese shouldn't be in consideration as their schedule is a complete joke.
Cent Ark and SHSU should be the only Southland teams in, but they won't get far as they are both paper tigers.
11-17-2017 09:42 AM
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BDKJMU Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Playoff picture
(11-17-2017 09:11 AM)EvanJ Wrote:  The Top 24 FCS teams in the Sagarin have 7 from the Missouri Valley (I'm not saying they will get that many teams in), 5 from the Big Sky, 4 from the CAA, and 2 from the Southland. The Southland is eighth out of thirteen FCS conferences in the Sagarin. Stony Brook is 1 spot ahead of Eastern Washington, so Eastern Washington will have a better Sagarin if they win and Stony Brook loses. If Stony Brook loses, they have to hope they get treated as an 8-3 CAA team without noting that they didn't face James Madison or Elon.
The Sagarin has already been shown to be semi worthless. The committee doesn't choose the field by the Sagarins. The MVFC could get anywhere from 4 to 6 in. It will likely be 5.

If the favorites all win on Sat then its simple, the MVFC gets likely 5, possibly 4.
NDSU 10-1
SDSU 9-2
WIU 8-3
UNI 7-4/6-2
SD 7-4/4-4, G5 win (Bowling Green), but finishing the season with 3 straight losses and 4 of 5, bubble.
ILSU 6-5/4-4, out

If ILSU upsets NDSU and SD loses to SDSU then I think SD would be out as the 6th MVFC team..
NDSU 9-2
SDSU 9-2
WIU 8-3
UNI 7-4/6-2
ILSU 7-4/5-3, win over NDSU..
SD 7-4/4-4, G5 win (Bowling Green), but finishing the season with 3 straight losses and 4 of 5, out.

The only scenario that would be a near lock for 6 MVFC (I believe the 1st time ever for 6 from 1 conference) would be along with WIU and UNI winning their games, ILSU upsetting NDSU and SD upsetting SDSU. Then you'd have:
NDSU 9-2
SDSU 8-3
WIU 8-3
SD 8-3
UNI 7-4/6-2
ILSU 7-4/5-3, win over NDSU..
(This post was last modified: 11-17-2017 01:10 PM by BDKJMU.)
11-17-2017 01:09 PM
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JMUNewbill Offline
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Post: #29
Playoff picture
Anyone else stoked for the "FSC" selection special tomorrow? Small time [Image: 2b2d83fb42ebeb16c052e2e0fdfedc15.jpg]
11-18-2017 10:02 AM
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madizoned-level2004 Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Playoff picture
(11-18-2017 10:02 AM)JMUNewbill Wrote:  Anyone else stoked for the "FSC" selection special tomorrow? Small time [Image: 2b2d83fb42ebeb16c052e2e0fdfedc15.jpg]

[Image: misses-fcs-playoffs-still-has-a-shot-at-...ayoffs.jpg]
(This post was last modified: 11-18-2017 03:52 PM by madizoned-level2004.)
11-18-2017 03:47 PM
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JMU_Degenerate Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Playoff picture
The more I look at it and think about it Stony Brook may have gone from being on the road next weekend (as an unseeded, outbid participant) to being seeded and having a bye week and hosting their first game because of a Hail Mary. I hope they are the 8 seed and come to Harrisonburg as this is a much, much better scenario than facing an underseeded MVFC team in round 3.
11-18-2017 05:58 PM
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FBS Dave Offline
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RE: Playoff picture
Sorry Delaware
11-18-2017 06:07 PM
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bcp_jmu Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Playoff picture
CAA will send 5 teams
11-18-2017 06:49 PM
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PurpleSoloCup84 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Playoff picture
(11-18-2017 05:58 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  The more I look at it and think about it Stony Brook may have gone from being on the road next weekend (as an unseeded, outbid participant) to being seeded and having a bye week and hosting their first game because of a Hail Mary. I hope they are the 8 seed and come to Harrisonburg as this is a much, much better scenario than facing an underseeded MVFC team in round 3.

So do you think Stony Brook came out the big winner this weekend? With a lot of teams losing, I admit I have no idea on some of the last teams in / last teams out.
11-18-2017 07:18 PM
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DevilDawg Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Playoff picture
Here’s a good Twitter feed to read up on how today’s results could impact the playoff picture.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NoBowls
11-18-2017 07:20 PM
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Knit35 Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Playoff picture
(11-18-2017 07:20 PM)DevilDawg Wrote:  Here’s a good Twitter feed to read up on how today’s results could impact the playoff picture.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NoBowls

Nothing earth shattering with this comment but it will be important that the seeds below us play out well. Fantastic to grab the #1 overall but favorable matchups and possibilities are equally as important.
11-18-2017 07:54 PM
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NYJMUPIKE Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Playoff picture
(11-18-2017 05:58 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  The more I look at it and think about it Stony Brook may have gone from being on the road next weekend (as an unseeded, outbid participant) to being seeded and having a bye week and hosting their first game because of a Hail Mary. I hope they are the 8 seed and come to Harrisonburg as this is a much, much better scenario than facing an underseeded MVFC team in round 3.

They usually bid pretty high to guarantee the first round home game.
Each year they've made the playoffs, they've outbid their opponent and hosted.
11-18-2017 08:01 PM
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Jmuwishyouhadadukedog Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Playoff picture
Crossposted from over on AGS but here is what I think the committee will do with seeds, not necessarily what I think they SHOULD do. Note a few of the at-larges I listed are assuming they win in their still ongoing games.

1. JMU (11-0) CAA
2. Jax State (10-1) OVC
3. NDSU (10-1) MVFC
4. Central Arkansas (10-1) Southland
5. Sam Houston (10-1) Southland
6. SDSU (9-2) MVFC
7. Wofford (9-2) Southern
8. Southern Utah (9-2) Big Sky

Personally, I'd swap Jax State and NDSU with each other and SHSU and SDSU with each other but I put what I think the committee will do. The only real big surprise I could see is swapping Southern Utah with Stony Brook though I don't think it will happen.

Remaining playoff field:

Autobids:

CCSU (8-3) NEC
Kennesaw State (10-1) Big South
Lehigh (5-6) Patriot
San Diego (9-2) Pioneer

At larges:

Stony Brook (9-2)- CAA
Weber State (9-2) Big Sky
Western Illinois (8-3) MVFC
Samford (8-3)- Southern
Northern Iowa (7-4) MVFC
South Dakota (7-4) MVFC
McNeese State assuming (9-3) Southland
Austin Peay assuming (8-4) OVC
Nicholls (8-3) (Southland)
Eastern Washington assuming they will be 7-4 Big Sky
New Hampshire (7-4) CAA
Monmouth (9-2) Big South( I don't agree they are one of the top 24 teams in the country, but if the past is any indication, the committee will have a hard time saying no to a 9-2 vs 7-4 teams)

Next 5 out:

Delaware 7-4 CAA
NAU (7-4) Big Sky
Montana (7-4) Big Sky
Furman (7-4) Southern
Sacramento State (7-4) Big Sky


I've probably forgotten someone but hey, I'm am amateur.
In my hypothetical scenario:

MVFC-5
CAA-4
Big Sky-3
Southland-3
Southern-2
Big South-2
OVC-2
Patriot-1
Pioneer-1
NEC-1
(This post was last modified: 11-18-2017 08:57 PM by Jmuwishyouhadadukedog.)
11-18-2017 08:41 PM
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BDKJMU Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Playoff picture
(11-18-2017 08:41 PM)Jmuwishyouhadadukedog Wrote:  Crossposted from over on AGS but here is what I think the committee will do with seeds, not necessarily what I think they SHOULD do. Note a few of the at-larges I listed are assuming they win in their still ongoing games.

1. JMU (11-0) CAA
2. Jax State (10-1) OVC
3. NDSU (10-1) MVFC
4. Central Arkansas (10-1) Southland
5. Sam Houston (10-1) Southland
6. SDSU (9-2) MVFC
7. Wofford (9-2) Southern
8. Southern Utah (9-2) Big Sky

Personally, I'd swap Jax State and NDSU with each other and SHSU and SDSU with each other but I put what I think the committee will do. The only real big surprise I could see is swapping Southern Utah with Stony Brook though I don't think it will happen.

Remaining playoff field:

Autobids:

CCSU (8-3) NEC
Kennesaw State (10-1) Big South
Lehigh (5-6) Patriot
San Diego (9-2) Pioneer

At larges:

Stony Brook (9-2)- CAA
Weber State (9-2) Big Sky
Western Illinois (8-3) MVFC
Samford (8-3)- Southern
Northern Iowa (7-4) MVFC
South Dakota (7-4) MVFC
McNeese State assuming (9-3) Southland
Austin Peay assuming (8-4) OVC
Nicholls (8-3) (Southland)
Eastern Washington assuming they will be 7-4 Big Sky
New Hampshire (7-4) CAA
Monmouth (9-2) Big South( I don't agree they are one of the top 24 teams in the country, but if the past is any indication, the committee will have a hard time saying no to a 9-2 vs 7-4 teams)

Next 5 out:

Delaware 7-4 CAA
NAU (7-4) Big Sky
Montana (7-4) Big Sky
Furman (7-4) Southern
Sacramento State (7-4) Big Sky


I've probably forgotten someone but hey, I'm am amateur.
In my hypothetical scenario:

MVFC-5
CAA-4
Big Sky-3
Southland-3
Southern-2
Big South-2
OVC-2
Patriot-1
Pioneer-1
NEC-1
Assuming McNeese wins tonight they would be 9-2, 8-2 vs Div 1.
11-18-2017 09:23 PM
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bcp_jmu Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Playoff picture
Id say they both jump the uca, shsu, jsu trio... very week conferences

There is still a chance that ndsu gets the 1 spot... they beat a number of better teams than we did - our ranked wins mostly ended up unranked

Of course i want the #1, but it really doesn't matter THAT much... 5 through 8 are getting smashed

Predictions...caa gets 5 in, plus:
Jmu /ndsu
Ndsu/jmu
Sdsu
Uca
Jsu
Shsu
Wofford
Stony
(This post was last modified: 11-18-2017 10:28 PM by bcp_jmu.)
11-18-2017 10:28 PM
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