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Delaware starts $60 million upgrade-start of FBS move with JMU?
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RutgersGuy Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Delaware starts $60 million upgrade-start of FBS move with JMU?
(11-11-2017 11:57 AM)NoDak Wrote:  
(11-11-2017 11:45 AM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(11-11-2017 11:24 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  NoDak: Albany would like to do whatever Stony Brook does but the Sea Wolves' program is quite a bit ahead of the Great Danes'.

With that said, if a group of 3 FCS schools jointly declare FBS independence, I think 2 more will craw out of the woodwork to make a conference of 8 even if that conference doesn't get playoff money until the next agreement.

So who could realistically jump up?

Delaware, UNH, JMU, Stony, Albany...who else? They could band up with Liberty and UMass but thats still just 7. Maybe convince Army to join up and you have 8.
Kennesaw St had as a goal FBS before they fielded a fb team.

Maybe try and convince some Sun Belt, CUSA schools like ODU or Charolette to jump?
11-11-2017 12:02 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Delaware starts $60 million upgrade-start of FBS move with JMU?
OK...It looks like there's a few people talking about a 'Eastern Seaboard' Conference. Lets talk about how this might happen, or not

First, lets look at UD and JMU. Lets just assume both are ready to jump. Now lets try to cobble together a conference

----

There are no FBS football only conferences. They aren't allowed. So you'd have to put together a conference that would have to wait for autobids in the various sports, including basketball. I think all the CUSA and Belt teams are going to have real problem with that.

Now, lets just assume that they don't need to create a new conference because the NCAA allows for a new conference to be created with autobids or that they allow a FBS only conference.

My guess is that even if they allowed an autobid to be enabled for a new conference from day one, then they'd still have issues convincing many teams to leave CUSA or the Belt to join this new conference. UMass walked away from the MAC before leaving the A-10. And they're desperate. And I'm not sure ODU would be interested either.

So lets assume the NCAA says...'FBS only conferences are now allowed'. Now what happens? Well it really doesn't help some of the teams. Do you think the Sun Belt or CUSA is just going to allow existing members to leave for football and keep their other sports? Doubtful.
----

But lets just play along and say that the NCAA will allow a FBS only conference and that the Belt and CUSA aren't going to retaliate against schools leaving for it. Even in that highly unlikely scenario, this is what you're left with.

UMass - would join immediately.

I'll play along and assume that JMU and UD would be interested in such a conference.

ODU and UNCC - would be leaving teams that are considered to be of a higher pedigree to join a conference with zero teams playing FBS as of 2010. I don't think that's going to happen.

If Liberty is unacceptable to the Sun Belt (a collection of Bible Belt based public schools) I can't imagine an Atlantic seaboard based conference wanting them. But they'd pretty much have to take them to make it work. And that's going to cause many of the other candidates some issues.

Coastal, App, Georgia State, and Georgia Southern - Georgia State would be returning to a league filled with teams that basically treated them like garbage. Georgia Southern would be moving away from its recruiting base. App would be shifting back to a SoCon type scenario. Coastal would be joining a bad baseball conference. And this new league would be highly unstable. I don't think any of them would bolt. Some of these teams have real rivalries developing with their Sun Belt peers.

Army - is not joining this new conference. Period.

----

I'd argue that none of the Belt or CUSA teams would be jumping. So you'd have UMass, UD, JMU, and then you'd need some other schools. You'd end up with NMSU and Liberty and then you'd still need to find several FCS teams ready to move up. Who you got? Remember you'd probably have LU and NMSU in this conference too.

So, UMass, UD, Liberty, NMSU, JMU, EKU, Jacksonville State, and maybe Stony Brook and another Mid Atlantic team.

----

I don't see that happening. Now lets look at the 'existing conferences allow for UD and JMU to join'. The MAC has tried, repeatedly, to move east. It hasn't worked out well. And conferences start to lose revenue per team as you go beyond 12 members. So I think the MAC is going to stand pat at this time. There IS a conference that could add 2 teams.....the Sun Belt. But JMU has already dissed them repeatedly and they appear happy at 10 teams. Also, the Western Belt teams are not happy about NMSU not getting an all sports invite. But it would work with divisions reasonably well. But I don't think that you can get 2/3rds of a vote to add both those teams. I think the play would be one Eastern school and NMSU. Not two.
(This post was last modified: 11-11-2017 02:24 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
11-11-2017 02:17 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Delaware starts $60 million upgrade-start of FBS move with JMU?
(11-11-2017 11:45 AM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(11-11-2017 11:24 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  NoDak: Albany would like to do whatever Stony Brook does but the Sea Wolves' program is quite a bit ahead of the Great Danes'.

With that said, if a group of 3 FCS schools jointly declare FBS independence, I think 2 more will craw out of the woodwork to make a conference of 8 even if that conference doesn't get playoff money until the next agreement.

So who could realistically jump up?

Delaware, UNH, JMU, Stony, Albany...who else? They could band up with Liberty and UMass but thats still just 7. Maybe convince Army to join up and you have 8.

Here is who I am thinking:

UMass
Liberty
NMSU
JMU
Delaware
Stony Brook

That's 6 and I think to get to 8 you look at Youngstown St, Jacksonville St, maybe schools like Eastern Kentucky, Missouri St, or an ambitious upstart like Kennesaw St or UTRGV.

Just for fun I'll toss out some or all of the Dakota 4 for NoDak's sake.

Im Not convinced UNH or Albany have the resources. Army will be a big no because they simply don't need these guys as they are just fine as they are.
11-11-2017 02:18 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Delaware starts $60 million upgrade-start of FBS move with JMU?
(11-11-2017 02:18 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(11-11-2017 11:45 AM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(11-11-2017 11:24 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  NoDak: Albany would like to do whatever Stony Brook does but the Sea Wolves' program is quite a bit ahead of the Great Danes'.

With that said, if a group of 3 FCS schools jointly declare FBS independence, I think 2 more will craw out of the woodwork to make a conference of 8 even if that conference doesn't get playoff money until the next agreement.

So who could realistically jump up?

Delaware, UNH, JMU, Stony, Albany...who else? They could band up with Liberty and UMass but thats still just 7. Maybe convince Army to join up and you have 8.

Here is who I am thinking:

UMass
Liberty
NMSU
JMU
Delaware
Stony Brook

That's 6 and I think to get to 8 you look at Youngstown St, Jacksonville St, maybe schools like Eastern Kentucky, Missouri St, or an ambitious upstart like Kennesaw St or UTRGV.

Just for fun I'll toss out some or all of the Dakota 4 for NoDak's sake.

Im Not convinced UNH or Albany have the resources. Army will be a big no because they simply don't need these guys as they are just fine as they are.

UMass, NMSU, JMU, UD, Stony Brook, Liberty, Jacksonville State, and Eastern Kentucky would be the conference.

But good luck figuring out how to get a new conference put together that will retain autobids, or getting the NCAA to allow for a FBS only conference AND finding a desirable place for these teams to park their non-football sports in while they play in this conference. NMSU, Liberty, and UMass wouldn't have issues. But what is JMU going to do? Play basketball in the Big South? You think the OVC is going to be happy with 2 teams leaving them for football? Now, its possible that the CAA gives up on retaliation against their football defectors. I'm not sure they'd do so.
11-11-2017 02:28 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Delaware starts $60 million upgrade-start of FBS move with JMU?
(11-11-2017 11:45 AM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(11-11-2017 11:24 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  NoDak: Albany would like to do whatever Stony Brook does but the Sea Wolves' program is quite a bit ahead of the Great Danes'.

With that said, if a group of 3 FCS schools jointly declare FBS independence, I think 2 more will craw out of the woodwork to make a conference of 8 even if that conference doesn't get playoff money until the next agreement.

So who could realistically jump up?

Delaware, UNH, JMU, Stony, Albany...who else? They could band up with Liberty and UMass but thats still just 7. Maybe convince Army to join up and you have 8.


Towson might make a go at it. Since it is part of Baltimore Metro area. They could have access to the Raven's football stadium until they could build up their stadium.

North Alabama was looking at the SBC around 2011/12 time period.

Chattanooga might decide to move to FBS. FBS is becoming water town with weaker schools since the stronger schools are moving to FBS. There is not much competition left. Several strong D2 schools could move up, but they seemed to refuse to. (cough, Grand Valley State, Cough, NW Missouri State.)

As it is, schools with no football can't afford to be left behind. That is why VCU, Dayton, Long Beach State, Northridge State, UC-Irvine, Northridge State, Wichita State, Little Rock, UTRGV, Milwaukee, and some others have been flirting to move up in the ranks about adding football.
11-11-2017 03:05 PM
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RutgersGuy Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Delaware starts $60 million upgrade-start of FBS move with JMU?
Well you'd have to convince them that in the long run having a few years without an auto-bid is worth it for a secure home for their FB.

I think UMass regrets leaving the MAC for the A-10 and FBS Indy status.

North: Buffalo, New Hampshire, Army, UMass, Stony Brook, Albany

South: JMU, ODU, Delaware, Liberty, Marshall, Eastern Kentucky
11-11-2017 03:09 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Delaware starts $60 million upgrade-start of FBS move with JMU?
Lamar, Sam Houston State and SFA have been eyeing FBS themselves.
Northern Iowa also wanted FBS. I do think you might get a pair of Northern Iowa and Missouri State go as a pair.
I read somewhere that East Tennessee State might want to go FBS again. They were independent one time in the early 1980s.
11-11-2017 03:12 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Delaware starts $60 million upgrade-start of FBS move with JMU?
(11-11-2017 02:17 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Also, the Western Belt teams are not happy about NMSU not getting an all sports invite.

Is that true? I don't see how having NMSU as a full member offers an advantage to the western Sun Belt teams. If anything, it's a disadvantage, since they already have to travel quite far within the conference. Plus, it's more competition for CFP money. But if they wanted NSMU full in, wouldn't they have voted against booting them out?
(This post was last modified: 11-11-2017 03:42 PM by Nerdlinger.)
11-11-2017 03:42 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Delaware starts $60 million upgrade-start of FBS move with JMU?
(11-11-2017 03:09 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  Well you'd have to convince them that in the long run having a few years without an auto-bid is worth it for a secure home for their FB.

I think UMass regrets leaving the MAC for the A-10 and FBS Indy status.

North: Buffalo, New Hampshire, Army, UMass, Stony Brook, Albany

South: JMU, ODU, Delaware, Liberty, Marshall, Eastern Kentucky

Even if UMass leaves for this new conference, it doesn't look like that would be appealing to some of the teams.

First, Marshall isn't leaving CUSA for that mess. They left the MAC for reasons of 'separation'. So I seriously doubt that they'd leave CUSA to play in a division with 1 school that was FBS prior to 2014. Also, Marshall's big recruiting area is Florida.

Secondly, why would Army join this? They left CUSA and have realistic aspirations for AAC inclusion. Not going to happen.

Old Dominion? This conference does reduce their travel costs, but that's about all this conference would provide them as far as benefits. Basketball would be worse too. And they'd be elevating not just one but three nearby rivals for recruiting. Not going to happen.

Buffalo? I don't see that happening either. While Buffalo probably wants to move somewhat East, I doubt they'd jump for that collection.

And just look at the FCS schools you've proposed.

UNH? They have 15,000 students. That's kind of small. And New England isn't a big football area. They also need a new stadium.

Albany? Less than 19,000 students. Not in a big football area. Small endowment. They have a stadium that is expandable, but they'd still have to pay to do it.

Stony Brook? Less than 16,000 undergrads. Not in a big football area. 10,000 seat stadium.

Eastern Kentucky? Wants to move up. 14,000 undergrads. Completely smothered by a flagship P5 school 27 miles away. Applied to the Sun Belt Conference and was turned down in favor of Coastal Carolina.

But for your analysis, lets assume they'd be able to swing it.

---

Now, you're left with a conference that includes 1 FBS independent (and recent moveup), 1 FCS team in the process of moving up, and 6 teams (4 of whom appear to be pretty marginal candidates for FBS) that haven't even started the process. You could also add NMSU and Jacksonville State to the teams that might be interested.

And this new conference would have to sort out bowl lineups, TV deals, and then there's the whole issue of getting an autobid for the Olympic sports.

---

This is so not happening.
(This post was last modified: 11-11-2017 04:05 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
11-11-2017 03:57 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Delaware starts $60 million upgrade-start of FBS move with JMU?
(11-11-2017 03:42 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(11-11-2017 02:17 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Also, the Western Belt teams are not happy about NMSU not getting an all sports invite.

Is that true? I don't see how having NMSU as a full member offers an advantage to the western Sun Belt teams. If anything, it's a disadvantage, since they already have to travel quite far within the conference. Plus, it's more competition for CFP money. But if they wanted NSMU full in, wouldn't they have voted against booting them out?

Basically, the entire Sun Belt western lineup voted for NMSU as an all sport member. Remember, you need 2/3rds to gain admission. And also note that the Sun Belt has 2 non-football members (UT-Arlington and Little Rock) which retain full voting rights in the matter. There are 12 full voting members of the Belt. NMSU had to convince 8 teams to stay in. They got some votes, just not 8.
11-11-2017 04:01 PM
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