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Orlando writer blasts the CFP committee. He's spot on w his analysis
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nobledictator1278 Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Orlando writer blasts the CFP committee. He's spot on w his analysis
What they should do that would be fair for P5 and G5 in this scenario is have rotating games every two years that changes and its based on where you finish in the conference.

Sooo for instance one year the SEC will play a Sun Belt team. SEC team plays at Sun Belt school and then switch it the following year. so that the sun belt school plays as the SEC home. This way you always know if you have a home game or a away game for scheduling purposes. The school you play is based on where you finish in the standings. So SEC #1 would play SB #1..... every 2 years you switch to a new conference between P5 and G5.

Any school can sell their rights to a home game

I know that the P5 would not like that idea because it is limiting, but it is more fair and I think it would be fun every year.
11-10-2017 04:00 PM
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SublimeKnight Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Orlando writer blasts the CFP committee. He's spot on w his analysis
(11-10-2017 03:52 PM)nobledictator1278 Wrote:  if UCF had of beat Bama and UGA...you would be in the play off discussion

Let's say UCF beat Bama game 1, instead of them beating FSU. What would the committee be saying about an alabama right now that lost to UCF and beat who? Fresno? Colorado State? Tight against A&M. They would not be in the top 4. They'd be around 10, like Auburn.

People would say. "Damn, if only UCF beat <insert new top4>, they'd have had a shot"

Our scheduling is fine. We can't beat this system with magical scheduling.
11-10-2017 04:04 PM
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Miami Pirate Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Orlando writer blasts the CFP committee. He's spot on w his analysis
Make it simple and fair. Get rid of some of those worthless bowls and go with a 16 team playoff. 10 conference champs and 6 at large teams. This scenario would make a bunch of money to distribute among the 16 teams. That's the only way I see where the so called committee cannot screw any non P-5 program. The disrespect UCF is getting is ridiculous.
11-10-2017 04:39 PM
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geosnooker2000 Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Orlando writer blasts the CFP committee. He's spot on w his analysis
(11-10-2017 04:39 PM)Miami Pirate Wrote:  Make it simple and fair. Get rid of some of those worthless bowls and go with a 16 team playoff. 10 conference champs and 6 at large teams. This scenario would make a bunch of money to distribute among the 16 teams. That's the only way I see where the so called committee cannot screw any non P-5 program. The disrespect UCF is getting is ridiculous.

Then we wouldn't be the FBS anymore. We would be the same as FCS, just a higher level. I like the distinction of playing bowls. We just need to get them to expand to an 8 team playoff. That's all the AAC needs. The G4 OTOH....
(This post was last modified: 11-11-2017 02:13 AM by geosnooker2000.)
11-11-2017 02:11 AM
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First Mate Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Orlando writer blasts the CFP committee. He's spot on w his analysis
(11-10-2017 04:39 PM)Miami Pirate Wrote:  Make it simple and fair. Get rid of some of those worthless bowls and go with a 16 team playoff. 10 conference champs and 6 at large teams. This scenario would make a bunch of money to distribute among the 16 teams. That's the only way I see where the so called committee cannot screw any non P-5 program. The disrespect UCF is getting is ridiculous.

I agree totally. 16 teams- 10 auto bids for D1 conf champs plus 6 wild cards gets all the best teams in and also gives every conference a chance.

Keep bowl games for the teams that don't make the playoff. Done. The current system is a joke.
(This post was last modified: 11-11-2017 07:29 AM by First Mate.)
11-11-2017 07:27 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Orlando writer blasts the CFP committee. He's spot on w his analysis
(11-10-2017 02:18 PM)Square Knight Wrote:  
(11-09-2017 11:00 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-09-2017 10:13 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  
(11-09-2017 08:47 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-09-2017 06:18 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Neither has Wisconsin. In fact, you have 2 loss teams in front of UCF, I assume because they have a stronger SOS. The reason they have a higher SOS is because they played at least 2 good teams which improved their SOS----but they lost to those teams. So---what? Is the implication that UCF is not capable of losing to those teams if they played them? Hell, UCF might actually beat those teams---we dont know. All we do know is that the teams in front of UCF lost to them. Its a fairly worthless data point and a poor argument in my opinion.

SOS isn't a small thing, it's pretty much everything. E.g. if your Houston played 12 games against FCS Prairie View, you'd be 12-0. If you played 12 games against the Philadelphia Eagles you'd be 0-12. Exact same team, completely different records strictly because of who you played.

In UCF's case, who knows, as you say, maybe if they played Alabama and Georgia and Clemson they would beat them all. We don't know.

But you can't give a team credit for what you don't know. What we know is that UCF is 8-0 against a roster of collectively very bad teams, an SOS of 92. That merits about being the #18 team in the country.

A high rank, btw, nothing to sneeze at.

The bolded is where you show your bias. Take Austin Peay out and THEN tell me what their SOS is.

IIRC, UCFs schedule was still around 80 before Austin Peay.

But that is kind of the point: while real playoff contenders are being tested by top opponents, UCF is playing Austin Pea and UConn.

Yea...
Alabama's games against Fresno State and Mercer are soooo tough.
Auburn plays Georgia Southern, Mercer, and La Monroe
Wisconsin plays Utah State, Florida Atlantic, Illinois
Ohio State has these incredibly difficult games...Indiana, Army, UNLV
Penn State gets to roll over Akron, Georgia State, Indiana, Rutgers
etc...etc.

All of those teams you mention have much tougher SOS ratings than UCF, except for Wisconsin, and even they have a significantly better SOS.

It's the totality of UCF's whole schedule that has been bad, not just AP.

And this week, while other top teams are playing do-or-die games against other ranked teams, UCF is playing .... #108 UConn.
11-11-2017 08:45 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Orlando writer blasts the CFP committee. He's spot on w his analysis
(11-10-2017 02:42 PM)CyberBull Wrote:  
(11-10-2017 02:18 PM)Square Knight Wrote:  
(11-09-2017 11:00 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-09-2017 10:13 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  
(11-09-2017 08:47 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  SOS isn't a small thing, it's pretty much everything. E.g. if your Houston played 12 games against FCS Prairie View, you'd be 12-0. If you played 12 games against the Philadelphia Eagles you'd be 0-12. Exact same team, completely different records strictly because of who you played.

In UCF's case, who knows, as you say, maybe if they played Alabama and Georgia and Clemson they would beat them all. We don't know.

But you can't give a team credit for what you don't know. What we know is that UCF is 8-0 against a roster of collectively very bad teams, an SOS of 92. That merits about being the #18 team in the country.

A high rank, btw, nothing to sneeze at.

The bolded is where you show your bias. Take Austin Peay out and THEN tell me what their SOS is.

IIRC, UCFs schedule was still around 80 before Austin Peay.

But that is kind of the point: while real playoff contenders are being tested by top opponents, UCF is playing Austin Pea and UConn.

Yea...
Alabama's games against Fresno State and Mercer are soooo tough.
Auburn plays Georgia Southern, Mercer, and La Monroe
Wisconsin plays Utah State, Florida Atlantic, Illinois
Ohio State has these incredibly difficult games...Indiana, Army, UNLV
Penn State gets to roll over Akron, Georgia State, Indiana, Rutgers
etc...etc.

....considering all those schools play really tough major conference schedules in the SEC & B1G, I think they get a pass an 'easy' OOC schedule.

That's a good point that often gets overlooked. It's the totality of the schedule C and OOC, that matters. I mean, if Auburn plays Alabama, is that somehow not supposed to count as a tough game because they are in the same conference? Makes no sense.

And in UCF's case, the only two mildly tough games they are playing - Memphis and USF - are in conference, so be careful what you wish for in terms of schedule evaluation criteria.
11-11-2017 08:47 AM
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First Mate Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Orlando writer blasts the CFP committee. He's spot on w his analysis
(11-11-2017 08:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-10-2017 02:42 PM)CyberBull Wrote:  
(11-10-2017 02:18 PM)Square Knight Wrote:  
(11-09-2017 11:00 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-09-2017 10:13 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  The bolded is where you show your bias. Take Austin Peay out and THEN tell me what their SOS is.

IIRC, UCFs schedule was still around 80 before Austin Peay.

But that is kind of the point: while real playoff contenders are being tested by top opponents, UCF is playing Austin Pea and UConn.

Yea...
Alabama's games against Fresno State and Mercer are soooo tough.
Auburn plays Georgia Southern, Mercer, and La Monroe
Wisconsin plays Utah State, Florida Atlantic, Illinois
Ohio State has these incredibly difficult games...Indiana, Army, UNLV
Penn State gets to roll over Akron, Georgia State, Indiana, Rutgers
etc...etc.

....considering all those schools play really tough major conference schedules in the SEC & B1G, I think they get a pass an 'easy' OOC schedule.

That's a good point that often gets overlooked. It's the totality of the schedule C and OOC, that matters. I mean, if Auburn plays Alabama, is that somehow not supposed to count as a tough game because they are in the same conference? Makes no sense.

And in UCF's case, the only two mildly tough games they are playing - Memphis and USF - are in conference, so be careful what you wish for in terms of schedule evaluation criteria.

But you can't help what conference you play in. So SOS is always gonna hurt teams not in the perceived best conferences. SOS is just another manuever by the powers to keep everybody else out of a playoff.
11-11-2017 08:52 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #69
RE: Orlando writer blasts the CFP committee. He's spot on w his analysis
(11-11-2017 08:52 AM)First Mate Wrote:  
(11-11-2017 08:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-10-2017 02:42 PM)CyberBull Wrote:  
(11-10-2017 02:18 PM)Square Knight Wrote:  
(11-09-2017 11:00 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  IIRC, UCFs schedule was still around 80 before Austin Peay.

But that is kind of the point: while real playoff contenders are being tested by top opponents, UCF is playing Austin Pea and UConn.

Yea...
Alabama's games against Fresno State and Mercer are soooo tough.
Auburn plays Georgia Southern, Mercer, and La Monroe
Wisconsin plays Utah State, Florida Atlantic, Illinois
Ohio State has these incredibly difficult games...Indiana, Army, UNLV
Penn State gets to roll over Akron, Georgia State, Indiana, Rutgers
etc...etc.

....considering all those schools play really tough major conference schedules in the SEC & B1G, I think they get a pass an 'easy' OOC schedule.

That's a good point that often gets overlooked. It's the totality of the schedule C and OOC, that matters. I mean, if Auburn plays Alabama, is that somehow not supposed to count as a tough game because they are in the same conference? Makes no sense.

And in UCF's case, the only two mildly tough games they are playing - Memphis and USF - are in conference, so be careful what you wish for in terms of schedule evaluation criteria.

But you can't help what conference you play in. So SOS is always gonna hurt teams not in the perceived best conferences. SOS is just another manuever by the powers to keep everybody else out of a playoff.

That's true, if the CFP is using subjective measures of SOS, e.g., the "eyeball test" and the like.

But computers use formulas that presumably aren't biased against any conferences, so hopefully the CFP uses these kinds of measures.
11-11-2017 08:58 AM
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SublimeKnight Offline
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Post: #70
RE: Orlando writer blasts the CFP committee. He's spot on w his analysis
(11-11-2017 08:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  That's true, if the CFP is using subjective measures of SOS, e.g., the "eyeball test" and the like.

But computers use formulas that presumably aren't biased against any conferences, so hopefully the CFP uses these kinds of measures.
They don't. If they did, Wisconsin would be a spot or two above UCF, not 10.
The SoS thing is just lip service. The AAC is eliminated from the playoff race before the season starts.
11-11-2017 09:15 AM
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Post: #71
RE: Orlando writer blasts the CFP committee. He's spot on w his analysis
(11-11-2017 08:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-11-2017 08:52 AM)First Mate Wrote:  
(11-11-2017 08:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-10-2017 02:42 PM)CyberBull Wrote:  
(11-10-2017 02:18 PM)Square Knight Wrote:  Yea...
Alabama's games against Fresno State and Mercer are soooo tough.
Auburn plays Georgia Southern, Mercer, and La Monroe
Wisconsin plays Utah State, Florida Atlantic, Illinois
Ohio State has these incredibly difficult games...Indiana, Army, UNLV
Penn State gets to roll over Akron, Georgia State, Indiana, Rutgers
etc...etc.

....considering all those schools play really tough major conference schedules in the SEC & B1G, I think they get a pass an 'easy' OOC schedule.

That's a good point that often gets overlooked. It's the totality of the schedule C and OOC, that matters. I mean, if Auburn plays Alabama, is that somehow not supposed to count as a tough game because they are in the same conference? Makes no sense.

And in UCF's case, the only two mildly tough games they are playing - Memphis and USF - are in conference, so be careful what you wish for in terms of schedule evaluation criteria.

But you can't help what conference you play in. So SOS is always gonna hurt teams not in the perceived best conferences. SOS is just another manuever by the powers to keep everybody else out of a playoff.

That's true, if the CFP is using subjective measures of SOS, e.g., the "eyeball test" and the like.

But computers use formulas that presumably aren't biased against any conferences, so hopefully the CFP uses these kinds of measures.


You just hate the aac, we all get it, but sos isn't really a strong indicator of anything in college football. The human versions use the eye test and the computer rankings don't have a large enough sample and aren't interconnected enough to be relevant.
11-11-2017 10:35 AM
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Post: #72
RE: Orlando writer blasts the CFP committee. He's spot on w his analysis
(11-09-2017 03:55 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  
(11-09-2017 03:08 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  It's a homer read, as CyberBull says, it reads more like a rant. Proof? He refers to SMU as a "good" team. SMU is not a good team. They are a decent team, but Sagarin has them ranked #64 right now. That's just not all that good.

He also says that UCF's schedule is almost exactly the same as Wisconsin's. But that's not true either. E.g, Sagarin has UCF's schedule at 92, Wisconsin's at 68. That's a big gap, not a small one.

Bottom line is that UCF just hasn't proved itself against top-flight competition. Being ranked #18 out of 120 teams isn't a bad thing, it means the CFP thinks you are better than more than 100 of those 120 teams. But the standard for playoffs is just way higher than that.

And how do you propose a G-5 prove itself against "top-flight competition"?

Boise is all ears.

TCU and Utah and Louisville did it well enough, apparently.
11-11-2017 10:40 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #73
RE: Orlando writer blasts the CFP committee. He's spot on w his analysis
(11-11-2017 10:35 AM)TU4ever Wrote:  
(11-11-2017 08:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-11-2017 08:52 AM)First Mate Wrote:  
(11-11-2017 08:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-10-2017 02:42 PM)CyberBull Wrote:  ....considering all those schools play really tough major conference schedules in the SEC & B1G, I think they get a pass an 'easy' OOC schedule.

That's a good point that often gets overlooked. It's the totality of the schedule C and OOC, that matters. I mean, if Auburn plays Alabama, is that somehow not supposed to count as a tough game because they are in the same conference? Makes no sense.

And in UCF's case, the only two mildly tough games they are playing - Memphis and USF - are in conference, so be careful what you wish for in terms of schedule evaluation criteria.

But you can't help what conference you play in. So SOS is always gonna hurt teams not in the perceived best conferences. SOS is just another manuever by the powers to keep everybody else out of a playoff.

That's true, if the CFP is using subjective measures of SOS, e.g., the "eyeball test" and the like.

But computers use formulas that presumably aren't biased against any conferences, so hopefully the CFP uses these kinds of measures.


You just hate the aac, we all get it, but sos isn't really a strong indicator of anything in college football. The human versions use the eye test and the computer rankings don't have a large enough sample and aren't interconnected enough to be relevant.

SOS has to be factored in, as it has a huge influence on results. Play Alabama 12 times and your record will likely be different than if you play Austin Peay 12 times.

Are SOS ratings perfect? No, but that doesn't mean we can ignore it.
(This post was last modified: 11-11-2017 10:44 AM by quo vadis.)
11-11-2017 10:43 AM
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Bear Offline
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Post: #74
RE: Orlando writer blasts the CFP committee. He's spot on w his analysis
I said it before, and I will say it again...

G5 teams WILL NEVER make it to the 4-team playoffs

never...
11-11-2017 10:54 AM
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SublimeKnight Offline
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Post: #75
RE: Orlando writer blasts the CFP committee. He's spot on w his analysis
(11-11-2017 10:54 AM)Bear Wrote:  I said it before, and I will say it again...

G5 teams WILL NEVER make it to the 4-team playoffs

never...

That's the truth. The end. If you say, "<insert G5> needs to schedule better", you are carry water for the P5 commissioners.
11-11-2017 11:05 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #76
RE: Orlando writer blasts the CFP committee. He's spot on w his analysis
(11-11-2017 10:54 AM)Bear Wrote:  I said it before, and I will say it again...

G5 teams WILL NEVER make it to the 4-team playoffs

never...

That is very likely to be true, but not because of a "bias" on the part of the CFP committee. Even if the CFP committee were completely unbiased, it is unlikely that over the 12-year life of the CFP that a G5 team would have a resume worthy of the top four.

Remember, we're talking about the top four out of 120 teams. You can be awfully good, awfully good, and still not be worthy of the top four. That's being better than 97% of the teams out there. That's a really high bar to climb.
(This post was last modified: 11-11-2017 11:15 AM by quo vadis.)
11-11-2017 11:13 AM
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Post: #77
RE: Orlando writer blasts the CFP committee. He's spot on w his analysis
(11-11-2017 10:40 AM)TripleA Wrote:  
(11-09-2017 03:55 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  
(11-09-2017 03:08 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  It's a homer read, as CyberBull says, it reads more like a rant. Proof? He refers to SMU as a "good" team. SMU is not a good team. They are a decent team, but Sagarin has them ranked #64 right now. That's just not all that good.

He also says that UCF's schedule is almost exactly the same as Wisconsin's. But that's not true either. E.g, Sagarin has UCF's schedule at 92, Wisconsin's at 68. That's a big gap, not a small one.

Bottom line is that UCF just hasn't proved itself against top-flight competition. Being ranked #18 out of 120 teams isn't a bad thing, it means the CFP thinks you are better than more than 100 of those 120 teams. But the standard for playoffs is just way higher than that.

And how do you propose a G-5 prove itself against "top-flight competition"?

Boise is all ears.

TCU and Utah and Louisville did it well enough, apparently.

I can't speak for TCU and Utah as much because I didn't follow them but I can speak a little about Louisville.

Louisville kept expanding their stadium, partially due to higher fan interest and a bigger following. Planning for stadium expansion began in 2006 with over 13k seats added in 2010. Almost half the funding was from the state with apparent taxpayer approval. I guess Louisville made their case to the public very well.

Is it any surprise that Louisville was serious about their program and that helped them mightily to get the invite to the ACC?

IMO, if the AAC can't get buy in and support from the the public AND gain a substantial following with high interest from locals, P6 goals will never come to fruition.

For example, look at the Cincy game last night. Sure it was cold, I get that. Sure Cincy is having a bad year, I get that too. The crowd was sparse and that's not good. But I never remember the biggest P5 team, PSU, having less than 90K show up to see a bad football teams, Rutgers for example, even on cold day games, even on years when PSU was bad. Much of PSU crowds travel up to 2 hours to get to the games.

The moral, gain high interest and good thing will follow.
(This post was last modified: 11-11-2017 11:37 AM by sfink16.)
11-11-2017 11:36 AM
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