(11-09-2017 07:14 PM)toddjnsn Wrote: We'd need NIU to beat CMU. It's in DeKalb, but CMU has a tendancy to give NIU fits out there. But Certainly very possible for NIU to win. Given that, and CMU beats @Kent + NIU beats BSU + Toledo beats @BGSU:
6-2 Toledo (lost to WMU, Ohio)
6-2 NIU (lost to WMU, Toledo)
6-2 CMU (lost to Toledo, NIU)
6-2 WMU (lost to CMU, Akron)
Here's the procedure:
(1) Record of tied teams vs. common opponents within the division: Toledo 1L, NIU 2L, CMU 2L, WMU 1L
(2) Head-to-Head Comparison: Toledo vs WMU = WMU
So yes, if NIU takes out CMU, we can still win it. I give it about a 5% chance to beat @Toledo *AND* @NIU with Goddard at the helm.
It's so convoluted in typical MAC fashion that this scenario is destined to happen!
(11-09-2017 07:14 PM)toddjnsn Wrote: We'd need NIU to beat CMU. It's in DeKalb, but CMU has a tendancy to give NIU fits out there. But Certainly very possible for NIU to win. Given that, and CMU beats @Kent + NIU beats BSU + Toledo beats @BGSU:
6-2 Toledo (lost to WMU, Ohio)
6-2 NIU (lost to WMU, Toledo) 6-2 CMU (lost to Toledo, NIU)
6-2 WMU (lost to CMU, Akron)
Here's the procedure:
(1) Record of tied teams vs. common opponents within the division: Toledo 1L, NIU 2L, CMU 2L, WMU 1L
(2) Head-to-Head Comparison: Toledo vs WMU = WMU
So yes, if NIU takes out CMU, we can still win it. I give it about a 5% chance to beat @Toledo *AND* @NIU with Goddard at the helm.
Correct me if I am wrong...didn't CMU already lose two? They lost to Toledo and Miami (Ohio). I realize that is only 1L in division, but wouldn't 3 overall losses drop them from contention?
That would make it WMU, NIU, Toledo all 6-2 with NIU out due to head to head losses v BOTH WMU and Toledo and Toledo out head to head v. WMU
(This post was last modified: 11-09-2017 08:33 PM by AFLAGWA.)
(11-09-2017 07:14 PM)toddjnsn Wrote: We'd need NIU to beat CMU. It's in DeKalb, but CMU has a tendancy to give NIU fits out there. But Certainly very possible for NIU to win. Given that, and CMU beats @Kent + NIU beats BSU + Toledo beats @BGSU:
6-2 Toledo (lost to WMU, Ohio)
6-2 NIU (lost to WMU, Toledo) 6-2 CMU (lost to Toledo, NIU)
6-2 WMU (lost to CMU, Akron)
Here's the procedure:
(1) Record of tied teams vs. common opponents within the division: Toledo 1L, NIU 2L, CMU 2L, WMU 1L
(2) Head-to-Head Comparison: Toledo vs WMU = WMU
So yes, if NIU takes out CMU, we can still win it. I give it about a 5% chance to beat @Toledo *AND* @NIU with Goddard at the helm.
Correct me if I am wrong...didn't CMU already lose two? They lost to Toledo and Miami (Ohio). I realize that is only 1L in division, but wouldn't 3 overall losses drop them from contention?
That would make it WMU, NIU, Toledo all 6-2 with NIU out due to head to head losses v BOTH WMU and Toledo and Toledo out head to head v. WMU
Yep, CMU already lost 2, so if they lose vs NIU they're out of the picture. They lose and we win the next two, we win the tie breaker with 2 loss Toledo and 2 loss NIU. Looks so easy on paper.
(This post was last modified: 11-10-2017 08:19 AM by Bronc33.)
(11-09-2017 07:14 PM)toddjnsn Wrote: We'd need NIU to beat CMU. It's in DeKalb, but CMU has a tendancy to give NIU fits out there. But Certainly very possible for NIU to win. Given that, and CMU beats @Kent + NIU beats BSU + Toledo beats @BGSU:
6-2 Toledo (lost to WMU, Ohio)
6-2 NIU (lost to WMU, Toledo) 6-2 CMU (lost to Toledo, NIU)
6-2 WMU (lost to CMU, Akron)
Here's the procedure:
(1) Record of tied teams vs. common opponents within the division: Toledo 1L, NIU 2L, CMU 2L, WMU 1L
(2) Head-to-Head Comparison: Toledo vs WMU = WMU
So yes, if NIU takes out CMU, we can still win it. I give it about a 5% chance to beat @Toledo *AND* @NIU with Goddard at the helm.
Correct me if I am wrong...didn't CMU already lose two? They lost to Toledo and Miami (Ohio). I realize that is only 1L in division, but wouldn't 3 overall losses drop them from contention?
That would make it WMU, NIU, Toledo all 6-2 with NIU out due to head to head losses v BOTH WMU and Toledo and Toledo out head to head v. WMU
Yep, CMU already lost 2, so if they lose vs NIU they're out of the picture. They lose and we win the next two, we win the tie breaker with 2 loss Toledo and 2 loss NIU. Looks so easy on paper.
Let's say that NIU DOESN'T beat CMU. We win out. NIU is out with 3 overall losses. WMU, CMU, Toledo all finish 6-2 with 1L in division and 1L out. We've gone round robin in the head. CMU>WMU, WMU>Toledo, Toledo>CMU...what is the next tie-breaker? Winning percentage of cross-over?
I'm sure this has been covered before...
Either way, that CMU/NIU game should eliminate someone...
(11-09-2017 07:14 PM)toddjnsn Wrote: We'd need NIU to beat CMU. It's in DeKalb, but CMU has a tendancy to give NIU fits out there. But Certainly very possible for NIU to win. Given that, and CMU beats @Kent + NIU beats BSU + Toledo beats @BGSU:
6-2 Toledo (lost to WMU, Ohio)
6-2 NIU (lost to WMU, Toledo) 6-2 CMU (lost to Toledo, NIU)
6-2 WMU (lost to CMU, Akron)
Here's the procedure:
(1) Record of tied teams vs. common opponents within the division: Toledo 1L, NIU 2L, CMU 2L, WMU 1L
(2) Head-to-Head Comparison: Toledo vs WMU = WMU
So yes, if NIU takes out CMU, we can still win it. I give it about a 5% chance to beat @Toledo *AND* @NIU with Goddard at the helm.
Correct me if I am wrong...didn't CMU already lose two? They lost to Toledo and Miami (Ohio). I realize that is only 1L in division, but wouldn't 3 overall losses drop them from contention?
That would make it WMU, NIU, Toledo all 6-2 with NIU out due to head to head losses v BOTH WMU and Toledo and Toledo out head to head v. WMU
Yep, CMU already lost 2, so if they lose vs NIU they're out of the picture. They lose and we win the next two, we win the tie breaker with 2 loss Toledo and 2 loss NIU. Looks so easy on paper.
Let's say that NIU DOESN'T beat CMU. We win out. NIU is out with 3 overall losses. WMU, CMU, Toledo all finish 6-2 with 1L in division and 1L out. We've gone round robin in the head. CMU>WMU, WMU>Toledo, Toledo>CMU...what is the next tie-breaker? Winning percentage of cross-over?
I'm sure this has been covered before...
Either way, that CMU/NIU game should eliminate someone...
Yes, winning percentage of crossover
This is the scenario that gives me nightmares. I think as of today, if this happened CMU would be going to Detroit.
Quote:This is the scenario that gives me nightmares. I think as of today, if this happened CMU would be going to Detroit.
Yep. That's why we need to be the biggest NIU fans after Wednesday's game against NIU. Hopefully Diesel comes out of his grave to push back the Chips in DeKalb. CMU has given NIU fits in DeKalb over the years.
We need to hope that our WR's can step up and make a few plays against NIU. Anything to keep them from stuffing the box consistently against the run. Our defense will likely play a bend-but-don't-break style, which is frustrating to watch but is probably necessary due to all the injuries. I don't see us finding a pass rush, so we have to let them beat themselves. If we can win the TOP, we will be in it at the end.
As for Toledo, Ohio dismantled them completely on the line of scrimmage. We'll see how they rebound against a weak Bowling Green team.
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Is it true that we...
