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stever20 Offline
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Post: #71
RE: Latest CFP Poll
In both the human polls Miami is #2. Clemson is 4 in AP/3 coaches. Oklahoma is 3/5. Wisconsin is 5/4. Auburn/Georgia/Ohio St/Notre Dame is 6-9 in both. Oklahoma St is 10 in AP/USC is 10 in coaches....
11-12-2017 02:29 PM
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TripleA Online
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Post: #72
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-08-2017 04:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 03:47 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 10:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 08:12 AM)ken d Wrote:  That whole "13th data point" stuff is a bunch of hooey. Would Notre Dame be considered more worthy if they had scheduled a game at Hawaii for a 13th data point?

I agree. I've always said that, e.g., if Wisconsin plays 13 games, with Austin Peay as a week two cupcake and #2 Ohio State in the B1G title game, why is the B1G title game the "13th point" any more than the Austin Peay game is?

Has never made sense.

Easy. B/c the first 2 years of the CFP, it became an issue when Big 12 teams, without a CCG, were getting shut out at the last minute, while other teams were playing that extra game, usually against a quality team (a division champ).

One of the CFP members (the chairman) used that phrase (13th data point) to explain how the Big 12 teams got jumped.

It is also why the Big 12 scheduled rival games and moved them back a week the next year, then later added a CCG, even without expanding.

And your Austin Peay analogy doesn't apply, b/c we're talking bout the last game of the season, which is critical for the final rankings.

Other P5s were playing CCGs and getting all the headlines, while the Big 12 sat idle.

I know the history of how the "13th point" term came in to usage. If you follow college football, you can't help but know. And FWIW, the Big 12 did get in to the playoffs in the second year of the CFP, so clearly the lack of a 13th data point didn't keep them out that year.

And yes, the Austin Peay analogy does work, because the last game of the season isn't any more the "13th game" in the sense of having played 13 games than any other game is. Obviously, the last game is critical because it's the last game that factors in to the final rankings. But it isn't "13" any more than the week two games is.

Yes quo, I realize you know everything ahead of time.

But despite the Big 12 making the CFP early, that "13th data point" comment is what spurred them to make changes.

And the difference is not that each game is one of 13, it's that one candidate has played an extra game (CCG) against a better opponent at the critical time of year, than the candidate who only played 12 games and sat out CCG week, or simply played a regular season game.

So yes, your analogy about Austin Peay is mathematically correct, but completely misses the point the CFP SC made about why that gave teams an advantage.
(This post was last modified: 11-12-2017 02:59 PM by TripleA.)
11-12-2017 02:58 PM
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BadgerMJ Offline
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Post: #73
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-12-2017 09:56 AM)stever20 Wrote:  My guess is
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Miami
4 Oklahoma
5 Wisconsin
6 Auburn
7 Georgia
8 Ohio St
9 Notre Dame
10 USC

Miami being undefeated with the win over ND beats Oklahoma.

Ohio St will be the 2nd best 2 loss team I think. TCU has 1 CFP win(maybe 2 this week)- vs Oklahoma St(and maybe West Virginia). Ohio St has 2 for sure in Penn St and Michigan St.

That's pretty good, but I think OU will be third ahead of "The U". True, Miami blew out ND, but OU handled a good TCU team as well so I think they'll get the benefit of the doubt.

This weekend did set tell us a lot though. The PAC and ND are pretty much out of contention. The XII is OU or bust at this point. The B1G is Wisconsin or bust as well.

As much as it pains me to say it, if Wisconsin loses the CCG or even to Michigan AND OU loses in their CCG or to WVU, we might be looking at a final four of

Bama
GA/Auburn
Clemson
Miami

04-drinky 03-puke
11-12-2017 05:18 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #74
RE: Latest CFP Poll
I think the undefeated with how they looked will beat out Oklahoma and Clemson.

Heck- I don't think it's a lock that Oklahoma even passes Clemson.
11-12-2017 05:26 PM
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gulfcoastgal Offline
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Post: #75
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-12-2017 02:58 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 04:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 03:47 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 10:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 08:12 AM)ken d Wrote:  That whole "13th data point" stuff is a bunch of hooey. Would Notre Dame be considered more worthy if they had scheduled a game at Hawaii for a 13th data point?

I agree. I've always said that, e.g., if Wisconsin plays 13 games, with Austin Peay as a week two cupcake and #2 Ohio State in the B1G title game, why is the B1G title game the "13th point" any more than the Austin Peay game is?

Has never made sense.

Easy. B/c the first 2 years of the CFP, it became an issue when Big 12 teams, without a CCG, were getting shut out at the last minute, while other teams were playing that extra game, usually against a quality team (a division champ).

One of the CFP members (the chairman) used that phrase (13th data point) to explain how the Big 12 teams got jumped.

It is also why the Big 12 scheduled rival games and moved them back a week the next year, then later added a CCG, even without expanding.

And your Austin Peay analogy doesn't apply, b/c we're talking bout the last game of the season, which is critical for the final rankings.

Other P5s were playing CCGs and getting all the headlines, while the Big 12 sat idle.

I know the history of how the "13th point" term came in to usage. If you follow college football, you can't help but know. And FWIW, the Big 12 did get in to the playoffs in the second year of the CFP, so clearly the lack of a 13th data point didn't keep them out that year.

And yes, the Austin Peay analogy does work, because the last game of the season isn't any more the "13th game" in the sense of having played 13 games than any other game is. Obviously, the last game is critical because it's the last game that factors in to the final rankings. But it isn't "13" any more than the week two games is.

Yes quo, I realize you know everything ahead of time.

But despite the Big 12 making the CFP early, that "13th data point" comment is what spurred them to make changes.

And the difference is not that each game is one of 13, it's that one candidate has played an extra game (CCG) against a better opponent at the critical time of year, than the candidate who only played 12 games and sat out CCG week, or simply played a regular season game.

So yes, your analogy about Austin Peay is mathematically correct, but completely misses the point the CFP SC made about why that gave teams an advantage.

Recency bias in full effect, put in motion during the first CFP season when they said rankings are issued based on schedules to date. The last data point becomes important when it is considered a "good" win (which includes most CCG champ games vs. some random one off).
11-12-2017 05:53 PM
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otown Offline
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Post: #76
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-12-2017 05:18 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-12-2017 09:56 AM)stever20 Wrote:  My guess is
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Miami
4 Oklahoma
5 Wisconsin
6 Auburn
7 Georgia
8 Ohio St
9 Notre Dame
10 USC

Miami being undefeated with the win over ND beats Oklahoma.

Ohio St will be the 2nd best 2 loss team I think. TCU has 1 CFP win(maybe 2 this week)- vs Oklahoma St(and maybe West Virginia). Ohio St has 2 for sure in Penn St and Michigan St.

That's pretty good, but I think OU will be third ahead of "The U". True, Miami blew out ND, but OU handled a good TCU team as well so I think they'll get the benefit of the doubt.

This weekend did set tell us a lot though. The PAC and ND are pretty much out of contention. The XII is OU or bust at this point. The B1G is Wisconsin or bust as well.

As much as it pains me to say it, if Wisconsin loses the CCG or even to Michigan AND OU loses in their CCG or to WVU, we might be looking at a final four of

Bama
GA/Auburn
Clemson
Miami

04-drinky 03-puke

After this weekend, i dont think the SEC or ACC runner up recovers from a CG loss.
11-12-2017 06:32 PM
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MissouriStateBears Offline
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Post: #77
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-08-2017 04:56 PM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  Auburn upsets Georgia
Miami over Notre Dame

This week's crazy picks.

01-ncaabbs
11-12-2017 08:53 PM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #78
RE: Latest CFP Poll
1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. Miami
4. OU
5. Wisconsin
6. Auburn
7. UGa

Miami should be rooting for UM and OSU to knock off Wisconsin. Then the three SEC teams will knock each other out.

If Bama loses close to Auburn or UGa and Miami loses close to Clemson and Wisconsin is upset, then it comes down to Bama 12-1 vs Miami 12-1. Tough call... I don't see Bama getting in if they lose to Auburn.
11-14-2017 09:47 PM
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bullet Offline
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Post: #79
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-12-2017 05:53 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  
(11-12-2017 02:58 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 04:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 03:47 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 10:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I agree. I've always said that, e.g., if Wisconsin plays 13 games, with Austin Peay as a week two cupcake and #2 Ohio State in the B1G title game, why is the B1G title game the "13th point" any more than the Austin Peay game is?

Has never made sense.

Easy. B/c the first 2 years of the CFP, it became an issue when Big 12 teams, without a CCG, were getting shut out at the last minute, while other teams were playing that extra game, usually against a quality team (a division champ).

One of the CFP members (the chairman) used that phrase (13th data point) to explain how the Big 12 teams got jumped.

It is also why the Big 12 scheduled rival games and moved them back a week the next year, then later added a CCG, even without expanding.

And your Austin Peay analogy doesn't apply, b/c we're talking bout the last game of the season, which is critical for the final rankings.

Other P5s were playing CCGs and getting all the headlines, while the Big 12 sat idle.

I know the history of how the "13th point" term came in to usage. If you follow college football, you can't help but know. And FWIW, the Big 12 did get in to the playoffs in the second year of the CFP, so clearly the lack of a 13th data point didn't keep them out that year.

And yes, the Austin Peay analogy does work, because the last game of the season isn't any more the "13th game" in the sense of having played 13 games than any other game is. Obviously, the last game is critical because it's the last game that factors in to the final rankings. But it isn't "13" any more than the week two games is.

Yes quo, I realize you know everything ahead of time.

But despite the Big 12 making the CFP early, that "13th data point" comment is what spurred them to make changes.

And the difference is not that each game is one of 13, it's that one candidate has played an extra game (CCG) against a better opponent at the critical time of year, than the candidate who only played 12 games and sat out CCG week, or simply played a regular season game.

So yes, your analogy about Austin Peay is mathematically correct, but completely misses the point the CFP SC made about why that gave teams an advantage.

Recency bias in full effect, put in motion during the first CFP season when they said rankings are issued based on schedules to date. The last data point becomes important when it is considered a "good" win (which includes most CCG champ games vs. some random one off).

In full effect today. They completely forgot about Ohio St. being destroyed by an unranked Iowa and moved them back to 8. Also forgot about Auburn losing to LSU, focusing on their solid win at home vs. UGA. UGA has beaten ND on the road and MSU at home and lost to Auburn on the road. Auburn has beaten UGA and MSU at home and lost to Clemson and LSU on the road.
11-14-2017 09:56 PM
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chargeradio Offline
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Post: #80
RE: Latest CFP Poll
Does UCF have a path to the playoff? Not likely, but not completely out of the question:

#1 Alabama wins out
#2 Clemson loses to Miami
#3 Miami wins out
#4 Oklahoma loses Big XII title game
#5 Wisconsin wins out
#6 Auburn loses to Alabama
#7 Georgia loses to Alabama
#8 Notre Dame loses to Navy or Stanford
#9 Ohio State loses to Wisconsin
#10 Penn State loses to Maryland or Nebraska
#11 USC loses Pac 12 title game
#12 TCU loses to Texas Tech or Baylor
#13 Oklahoma State loses to Kansas or Kansas State
#14 Washington State loses to Washington
#15 UCF wins out

The least likely of the above would be the losses by Notre DMe, TCU, and Oklahoma State. Even then UCF may not pass Oklahoma or Ohio State, who would have a “good loss” to a likely #3 Wisconsin.
11-14-2017 10:19 PM
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