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The Kershaw playoff narrative
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #11
RE: The Kershaw playoff narrative
(11-06-2017 02:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  it's funny looking at 2 guys- Mike Mussina and John Smoltz.....
2015- HOF voting…
Mussina had by BR 83.0 WAR and 44.5 WAR7. 63.8 JAWS 82.2 fWAR.
Smoltz had by BR 69.5 WAR and 38.8 WAR7. 54.2 JAWS. 79.6 fWAR.

Smoltz got into the HOF with 82.9% of the vote
Mussina didn’t get in- he got 24.6% of the vote and just last year got up to 51% of the vote.
why?
post season history:
Smoltz 15-4 2.67 ERA 3.18 FIP
Mussina 7-8 3.42 ERA 3.54 FIP

Smoltz and Glavine also got huge bumps from being part of that vaunted Braves trio that lasted longer than any pitching trio had any right to do. Fact that Glavine and Smoltz are in and Mussina, Brown and Schilling aren't, is criminal. I felt the same for Biggio and Bagwell
11-07-2017 11:35 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #12
RE: The Kershaw playoff narrative
really interesting with Kershaw-
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/clayton-...is-sleeve/

talking about how he doesn't throw his curve when he's behind in the count....

look at the numbers:
1-0 12/36 2 2b 4 hr
2-0 7/15 2 2b 2 hr
3-0 0/0 bb
2-1 6/27 1 2b 2 hr
3-1 0/5 5 bb
25/83 5 2b 8 hr
was also 12/55 2 2b 1 3b 2 hr full count (1.5% of the time thrown)
and also 27/90 4 2b 5 hr 1st pitch(4.9% of the time thrown)
so 15 of his homers were thrown in counts where he threw the curve less than 5% of the time. In all the other counts- he gave up only 8 hr. .281 avg against in those non curve ball counts. .174 avg against when he wasn’t in those counts.
oh, and 17/55 with a 1-1 count(only 13.9% curves thrown) with 2 2b and 3 hr.
So 81/283- .286 avg against when he throws his curve normally 15% or less.
55/358- .154 avg against when he throws his curve normally 15% or more.

In playoffs- he gave up 8 homers
4 on 1st pitch of count
1 on 1-0 count
1 3-2 count
1 2-2 count
1 1-1 count
So of 31 homers total this year- he gave up 21 of them on counts where he would throw the curve less than 5% of the time. 25 when it's less than 15% of the time.

You would really think the Dodgers/Kershaw would know this.
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2017 12:22 PM by stever20.)
11-07-2017 12:11 PM
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Brookes Owl Online
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Post: #13
RE: The Kershaw playoff narrative
(11-07-2017 12:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  really interesting with Kershaw-
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/clayton-...is-sleeve/

talking about how he doesn't throw his curve when he's behind in the count....

look at the numbers:
1-0 12/36 2 2b 4 hr
2-0 7/15 2 2b 2 hr
3-0 0/0 bb
2-1 6/27 1 2b 2 hr
3-1 0/5 5 bb
25/83 5 2b 8 hr
was also 12/55 2 2b 1 3b 2 hr full count (1.5% of the time thrown)
and also 27/90 4 2b 5 hr 1st pitch(4.9% of the time thrown)
so 15 of his homers were thrown in counts where he threw the curve less than 5% of the time. In all the other counts- he gave up only 8 hr. .281 avg against in those non curve ball counts. .174 avg against when he wasn’t in those counts.
oh, and 17/55 with a 1-1 count(only 13.9% curves thrown) with 2 2b and 3 hr.
So 81/283- .286 avg against when he throws his curve normally 15% or less.
55/358- .154 avg against when he throws his curve normally 15% or more.

In playoffs- he gave up 8 homers
4 on 1st pitch of count
1 on 1-0 count
1 3-2 count
1 2-2 count
1 1-1 count
So of 31 homers total this year- he gave up 21 of them on counts where he would throw the curve less than 5% of the time. 25 when it's less than 15% of the time.

You would really think the Dodgers/Kershaw would know this.

They absolutely know it. If the guy doesn't trust his command, he's limited.
11-07-2017 12:39 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #14
RE: The Kershaw playoff narrative
what I think is remarkable is his career numbers-
23 hr 1st pitch
13 hr 1-0 count
6 hr 2-0 count
0 hr 3-0 count
15 hr 1-1 count
13 hr 2-1 count
6 hr 3-1 count
17 hr 3-2 count
93 hr in those counts out of 128 hr

think about hit- 23/128 career homers have come off 1st pitch. That's almost 18%.
11-07-2017 12:43 PM
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Brookes Owl Online
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Post: #15
RE: The Kershaw playoff narrative
(11-07-2017 12:43 PM)stever20 Wrote:  what I think is remarkable is his career numbers-
23 hr 1st pitch
13 hr 1-0 count
6 hr 2-0 count
0 hr 3-0 count
15 hr 1-1 count
13 hr 2-1 count
6 hr 3-1 count
17 hr 3-2 count
93 hr in those counts out of 128 hr

think about hit- 23/128 career homers have come off 1st pitch. That's almost 18%.

First of all, 128 HRs allowed is an extremely small number. The % may be relatively high but the absolute number is still vanishingly small for a guy with 10 seasons and nearly 2000 IP. That said, it's not exactly a surprise that HRs are hit on the first pitch of a guy who is fairly well known for throwing first pitch strikes.
11-07-2017 01:01 PM
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