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11/5 Bowl projections
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usm99 Offline
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Post: #1
11/5 Bowl projections
SB Nation has us getting 10.

New Orleans - La Tech vs Arkansas St
Cure - USM vs UL Lafayette
New Mexico - UTSA vs Colorado St
Boca Raton - FAU vs USF
Bad Boy Mowers - FIU vs SMU
Bahamas - UAB vs Ohio
Armed Forces - UNT vs Army
Independence - MTSU vs Georgia Tech
Quick Lane - WKU vs Eastern Michigan
Belk - Marshall vs Louisville
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2017 09:48 PM by usm99.)
11-05-2017 09:28 PM
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EagleX Offline
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Post: #2
RE: 11/5 Bowl projections
we played LaLa last year.
11-05-2017 09:32 PM
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usm99 Offline
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RE: 11/5 Bowl projections
ESPN’s 2 pickers. #1 has 10 teams while #2 has 9 with La Tech as missing out

New Orleans
1- FIU vs Appy St
2- UAB vs UL Lafayette

Cure (both have same picks)
MTSU vs Georgia St

New Mexico (same picks)
FAU vs San Diego St

Boca Raton
1- WKU vs Temple
2- WKU vs Central Michigan

Frisco
2- UTSA vs Memphis

Bad Boy Mowers
1- Marshall vs Houston
2- USM vs USF

Bahamas
1- UAB vs Central Michigan
2- FIU vs Akron

Armed Forces (same picks)
UNT vs Army

Heart of Dallas
1- UTSA vs Utah St
2- Marshall vs Oregon

Quick Lane
1- La Tech vs Western Michigan

Independence
1- USM vs UNLV
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2017 09:45 PM by usm99.)
11-05-2017 09:39 PM
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NTGreen Offline
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Post: #4
RE: 11/5 Bowl projections
(11-05-2017 09:32 PM)EagleX Wrote:  we played LaLa last year.

We played Army twice last year, and play them again ooc this year....
11-05-2017 09:39 PM
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EagleX Offline
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Post: #5
RE: 11/5 Bowl projections
(11-05-2017 09:39 PM)NTGreen Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 09:32 PM)EagleX Wrote:  we played LaLa last year.

We played Army twice last year, and play them again ooc this year....

wow. I had forgotten. when they schedule your bowl against a team you just beat a month ago, not a **** is being given by the selection committee.
11-05-2017 09:43 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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Post: #6
RE: 11/5 Bowl projections
These people put absolutely zero effort into these picks. 01-wingedeagle

No way North Texas faces Army in the Armed Forces, or the HOD committee takes UTSA or Marshall over North Texas. I think last season proved the HOD loves North Texas. They know very well that North Texas will take well over 30,000 to an HOD that has the Mean Green facing a P5 team.
11-05-2017 09:48 PM
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goliath74 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: 11/5 Bowl projections
I think FAU vs USF is a very intriguing game. Especially for the Boca Raton Bowl. There is going to be a lot of South Florida talent on both sidelines. There will be excitement.
11-05-2017 09:53 PM
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TTT Offline
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Post: #8
RE: 11/5 Bowl projections
Hate to break it to some of y'all but "potential attendance" has little effect on who plays in what bowl...the TV execs get a huge say under the table. It's all about potential eyeballs on the TV screen and NOT the # of heads in the stadium.
11-05-2017 10:40 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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Post: #9
RE: 11/5 Bowl projections
(11-05-2017 10:40 PM)TTT Wrote:  Hate to break it to some of y'all but "potential attendance" has little effect on who plays in what bowl...the TV execs get a huge say under the table. It's all about potential eyeballs on the TV screen and NOT the # of heads in the stadium.

I heard the same speech last season....

Then the Heart of Dallas Committee selected my 5-7 North Texas team to face Army, while a 6 win UTSA team got sent to New Mexico. No, I don't believe your opinion is accurate. Recent history seems to prove otherwise. 07-coffee3
11-05-2017 10:51 PM
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EagleX Offline
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Post: #10
RE: 11/5 Bowl projections
(11-05-2017 10:51 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 10:40 PM)TTT Wrote:  Hate to break it to some of y'all but "potential attendance" has little effect on who plays in what bowl...the TV execs get a huge say under the table. It's all about potential eyeballs on the TV screen and NOT the # of heads in the stadium.

I heard the same speech last season....

Then the Heart of Dallas Committee selected my 5-7 North Texas team to face Army, while a 6 win UTSA team got sent to New Mexico. No, I don't believe your opinion is accurate. Recent history seems to prove otherwise. 07-coffee3

ok, fine. based on one year, they should just rename it the unt bowl. thanks for playing.
11-05-2017 10:53 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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Post: #11
RE: 11/5 Bowl projections
(11-05-2017 10:53 PM)EagleX Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 10:51 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 10:40 PM)TTT Wrote:  Hate to break it to some of y'all but "potential attendance" has little effect on who plays in what bowl...the TV execs get a huge say under the table. It's all about potential eyeballs on the TV screen and NOT the # of heads in the stadium.

I heard the same speech last season....

Then the Heart of Dallas Committee selected my 5-7 North Texas team to face Army, while a 6 win UTSA team got sent to New Mexico. No, I don't believe your opinion is accurate. Recent history seems to prove otherwise. 07-coffee3

ok, fine. based on one year, they should just rename it the unt bowl. thanks for playing.

Since joining C-USA, North Texas has been to two bowl games. Both times the Heart of Dallas has selected the Mean Green.

I know C-USA isn't tied to the HOD this season, but it is highly likely that one if not both teams from the BIG10 and BIG12 will be able to fill their spots. This could end up being a match-up against a PAC12 team.
11-05-2017 11:00 PM
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NorthTexan95 Offline
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Post: #12
RE: 11/5 Bowl projections
(11-05-2017 10:40 PM)TTT Wrote:  Hate to break it to some of y'all but "potential attendance" has little effect on who plays in what bowl...the TV execs get a huge say under the table. It's all about potential eyeballs on the TV screen and NOT the # of heads in the stadium.

This isn't true at all. For most bowls attendance is a huge part of the equation. It's why you're seeing CUSA teams for the most part being put in bowls near their fans.
11-06-2017 12:07 AM
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Cerebus Offline
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Post: #13
RE: 11/5 Bowl projections
Both sides are correct. Kinda.

ESPN owns almost all the bowls, and they are primarily interested in ratings. If there is any way to guarantee a huge rating they will make sure it happens.

However, let's be honest. None of us are going to draw a huge TV crowd this year, and they aren't going to try an match us up with any premier programs.

In that case the local bowl committee, who will want ticket sales, will have a pretty large say.
11-06-2017 08:57 AM
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FIUFan Offline
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Post: #14
RE: 11/5 Bowl projections
I think, for the most part, the best choice for the Bahamas Bowl would be for FIU to go (unless something crazy happens). Generally, we've all the alumni have passports, we're super close, everyone knows someone with a boat or a flight is super cheap out of MIA or FLL. Only issue is the game is Christmas Eve, so that would be a plus for some and a minus for others.

Anyways, great to have these issues to deal with.
11-06-2017 09:12 AM
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THUNDERStruck73 Offline
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Post: #15
RE: 11/5 Bowl projections
(11-06-2017 12:07 AM)NorthTexan95 Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 10:40 PM)TTT Wrote:  Hate to break it to some of y'all but "potential attendance" has little effect on who plays in what bowl...the TV execs get a huge say under the table. It's all about potential eyeballs on the TV screen and NOT the # of heads in the stadium.

This isn't true at all. For most bowls attendance is a huge part of the equation. It's why you're seeing CUSA teams for the most part being put in bowls near their fans.

Agree. Marshall has a huge alumni base in Florida. Plus, we travel probably better than any other team in CUSA (no data to back that up, just the eye test). Attendance matters. That's why we've only gone to Texas for a bowl one time. That being said, in our modern bowl era (not counting the Tangerine Bowl of 1947), in all 12 bowls the average attendance is 31, 659.... Not too shabby.
(This post was last modified: 11-06-2017 09:59 AM by THUNDERStruck73.)
11-06-2017 09:33 AM
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BlazerDave Offline
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RE: 11/5 Bowl projections
What is a Bowl and is it a good thing? 03-cloud9
11-06-2017 09:56 AM
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Magic95Fan Offline
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Post: #17
RE: 11/5 Bowl projections
I really hate that Army is contracted into the AFB. That would have been a perfect bowl for UNT. Im pretty sure that both schools and the AFB will say "heck no" about another rematch. HoD makes the most sense, but it isnt a given that CUSA will get the open spot. New Orleans Bowl would be great if it wasnt against the Belt. I guess New Mexico Bowl would be best for us if we dont make a deal for the HoD.
11-06-2017 09:57 AM
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MTowho Offline
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RE: 11/5 Bowl projections
I'll do a much more in depth look next week when things settle down even more, but right now I'm looking at 79 eligible teams for 78 slots. Obviously it changes week to week based on who is projected as making the playoff and New Year's Six slots, but I see the following bowls open, and the following conferences having extra teams.

Open Bowls
Frisco Bowl vs AAC
Independence (both slots)
Heart of Dallas (both slots)
Quick Lane vs Big 10
Gasparilla vs CUSA
Hawaii vs MWC

Extra Teams
Pac 12 x 1
MWC x 2
MAC x 2
CUSA x 4

The MAC would send one of its teams to the Quick Lane Bowl as they are primarily the backup there. CUSA would send one team to Independence. Best case scenario, CUSA uses its geography and plethora of teams to get the Frisco and HOD Bowl slots. Pac 12 would take the other HoD slot. MWC teams to Indy and Gasparilla. The final slot, Hawaii, would come down to a CUSA or MAC team. Maybe it isn't Hawaii, but I would imagine that the MWC teams would find slots before the final CUSA and MAC team.

Of course, this could play out a hundred different ways, but the only way to assure your team will be in is to get to 7 wins so CUSA will place your team over 6 win CUSA teams.

100 Miles of Hate will be huge as far as MT/WKU's bowl destination/chances this season, assuming MT gets by Charlotte this week.
(This post was last modified: 11-06-2017 10:05 AM by MTowho.)
11-06-2017 10:03 AM
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usm99 Offline
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Post: #19
RE: 11/5 Bowl projections
(11-06-2017 10:03 AM)MTowho Wrote:  I'll do a much more in depth look next week when things settle down even more, but right now I'm looking at 79 eligible teams for 78 slots. Obviously it changes week to week based on who is projected as making the playoff and New Year's Six slots, but I see the following bowls open, and the following conferences having extra teams.

Open Bowls
Frisco Bowl vs AAC
Independence (both slots)
Heart of Dallas (both slots)
Quick Lane vs Big 10
Gasparilla vs CUSA
Hawaii vs MWC

Extra Teams
Pac 12 x 1
MWC x 2
MAC x 2
CUSA x 4

The MAC would send one of its teams to the Quick Lane Bowl as they are primarily the backup there. CUSA would send one team to Independence. Best case scenario, CUSA uses its geography and plethora of teams to get the Frisco and HOD Bowl slots. Pac 12 would take the other HoD slot. MWC teams to Indy and Gasparilla. The final slot, Hawaii, would come down to a CUSA or MAC team. Maybe it isn't Hawaii, but I would imagine that the MWC teams would find slots before the final CUSA and MAC team.

Of course, this could play out a hundred different ways, but the only way to assure your team will be in is to get to 7 wins so CUSA will place your team over 6 win CUSA teams.

100 Miles of Hate will be huge as far as MT/WKU's bowl destination/chances this season, assuming MT gets by Charlotte this week.

Here's some random matchups I picked out for this week's slate of games:

Rutgers (4-5) at #7 Penn St (7-2) -- Rutgers ends season with Indiana and #24 Michigan State so a loss here would put them having to win out

Arkansas (4-5) at #19 LSU (6-3) -- Arkansas finishes with #16 Miss St and Mizzou so a loss here puts them having to win out

Duke (4-5) at Army (7-2) -- Duke has lost 5 straight and finishes with Georgia Tech (4-4) and Wake Forest (5-4). A loss here and they would have to win out

Florida (3-5) at South Carolina (6-2) -- UF only plays 11 games unless they add one on due to the cancellation earlier in the season from Irma. They finish with UAB and Florida St so a loss here could end their post season hopes

Georgia Tech (4-4) hosts #13 Va Tech (7-2) -- GT only plays 11 as well and they finish with Duke and #1 Georgia so a loss here could end their post season as well

Florida St (3-5) at #4 Clemson (8-1) -- FSU only plays 11 but they are working on making up their cancelled game with UL Monroe. If it doesnt happen a loss here would end their post season hopes

The SEC has 4 eligible teams (Ole Miss is ineligible) that are 4-5 so those outcomes could go a long way in CUSA and other G5 conferences to get extra berths:
Arkansas -- @LSU, Ms State, Missouri
Missouri - Tenn, @Vandy, @Arkansas
Tennessee - @Missouri, LSU, Vandy
Vandy - Kentucky, Missouri, @Tennessee

there's still a bit more but this is just a starter set of games that could benefit some of our bowl eligible teams
(This post was last modified: 11-06-2017 02:39 PM by usm99.)
11-06-2017 02:27 PM
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OwlFamily Offline
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Post: #20
RE: 11/5 Bowl projections
FAU vs USF in Boca bowl would be insane!

Probably be about 70 30 in favor of USF in the stands I would imagine. At best 60-40
11-06-2017 03:27 PM
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