(11-05-2017 12:20 PM)goliath74 Wrote:  

(11-05-2017 12:19 PM)THUNDERGround Wrote:  

(11-05-2017 12:17 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  

(11-05-2017 12:13 PM)THUNDERGround Wrote:  

(11-05-2017 12:00 PM)goliath74 Wrote:  If we lose, we still are tied with FIU.

But they would own the tiebreaker

He means this week on the road at La Tech. If we win this week then both teams will have one loss going into the Shula.

I get that...all I'm saying is that you would still have the inside track to the ccg

But the Boca game would still remain for all the marbles.

Right...for some reason I was thinking you played each other this week....my bad

if we finish with the same conference record, the winner of the Shula Bowl would break the tie.

(11-05-2017 12:21 PM)THUNDERGround Wrote:  

(11-05-2017 12:20 PM)goliath74 Wrote:  

(11-05-2017 12:19 PM)THUNDERGround Wrote:  

(11-05-2017 12:17 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  

(11-05-2017 12:13 PM)THUNDERGround Wrote:  But they would own the tiebreaker

He means this week on the road at La Tech. If we win this week then both teams will have one loss going into the Shula.

I get that...all I'm saying is that you would still have the inside track to the ccg

But the Boca game would still remain for all the marbles.

Right...for some reason I was thinking you played each other this week....my bad

sorry, late with my response.

(11-05-2017 12:22 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  if we finish with the same conference record, the winner of the Shula Bowl would break the tie.

Right..I was just a week ahead...

Tech is in the beyond help category. The best Tech can do would be to finish in a 2 to 4-way tie for 1st with North Texas and possibly UAB and/or USM at 5-3. Since Tech lost to all three of those teams, it would be eliminated in the first tiebreaker round in all scenarios.

FIU seems to be playing to the level of competition all year which isn't a good or bad thing as long as you come out with W"s more than losses. I FIU does a good job of slowing the run and can match our speed at most positions.

What i think is the difference is their QB is erratic at times and that plays into our DB's hands who are getting around 3 picks a game.

UTSA is also beyond help because it also cannot do better than finish in a tie for 1st at 5-3 with North Texas and possibly UAB and/or USM. Since North Texas beat UAB, USM, and UTSA, it would win the head-to-head tiebreaker.

If UAB had just pulled out that game @UNT we would be the West champs. Close, but no cigar. That special teams break down on the return with 27 seconds left in the game...still crazy we were even in that position to compete for the west to begin with.

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I was gonna say, i thought LA Tech and UTSA were both mathematically eliminated yesterday thanks to the CUSA Tiebreaker rules. UNT losing to an East team is what saved us. Im really hoping the Green can stay focused and not have a let down against Rice or UTEP. Cant get a big head.

It's highest conference winning %,
Head to head
Highest division %

(11-05-2017 08:10 AM)CoachMaclid Wrote:  Marshall has exactly 1 path left to a division title.... Every one of these 8 things MUST happen. If any one of these things don’t happen, we will be mathematically eliminated.

Marshall must beat WKU
Marshall must beat UTSA
Marshall must beat Southern Miss
FIU must be FAU
ODU must beat FIU
WKU must beat FIU
La Tech must beat FAU
Charlotte must beat FAU

I see two roadblocks to the one path.

(11-05-2017 08:10 AM)CoachMaclid Wrote:  Marshall has exactly 1 path left to a division title.... Every one of these 8 things MUST happen. If any one of these things don’t happen, we will be mathematically eliminated.

Marshall must beat WKU
Marshall must beat UTSA
Marshall must beat Southern Miss
FIU must be FAU
ODU must beat FIU
WKU must beat FIU
La Tech must beat FAU
Charlotte must beat FAU

So you’re saying there is a chance?!?!?!?

(11-05-2017 05:19 PM)MU ATO Wrote:  So you’re saying there is a chance?!?!?!?

So, to figure out that percentage, you take the percentage of each desired outcome and multiple them together. I just took the ESPN Matchup Predictor percentage ratings for each of those games...

Marshall vs WKU 78.8%
Marshall vs UTSA 47.7%
Marshall vs Southern Miss 74.2%
FIU vs FAU 15.3%
ODU vs FIU 29.2%
WKU vs FIU 47.8%
La Tech vs FAU 42.5%
Charlotte vs FAU 10.4%

Multiply it up and we get Marshall’s percentage chance to win the division...
0.0263%

Note: that is not 2%. It’s two hundredths of a percent.

To put that in perspective, if we can get 263 unique people to read this thread, then there would be an equal chance that one of those readers would get stuck by lightning within the next year as Marshall winning the division.

So, yes, there is a non-zero chance...