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FCS Football Playoff Selection Committee Rankings
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JMad03 Offline
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Post: #61
RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
NDSU is going to play a big role on those rankings. Playing 2 of those teams, either they lose and move down allowing those teams to move up or they win knocking them either out of the rankings (SDSU) or much lower (SD). Not to mention Ill St could crack into that list with a win.
Translation: there's no way in hell those rankings stay where they are come playoff time.
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2017 08:03 AM by JMad03.)
11-03-2017 08:02 AM
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JMUNation Offline
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Post: #62
RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
(11-03-2017 04:48 AM)Yesolitis Wrote:  The upset factor - any given saturday, yada yada yada

URI was very close to having 5 wins at this point in the season that included a FBS win. They are no easy out despite having only 2 wins. I think this game will be more uncomfortably close than most would like to see. I'd love a 80-point drubbing again, but I just don't see that happening.

About the rankings - if South Dakota wins out, they'll be at 2 or 3 with a win over NDSU. They have a few tough games and just lost a couple players to suspensions. I suspect they will drop and we see Central Arkansas at 4. In any event, I highly doubt USD remains at 4.

If we take care of business and beat Elon, they'll likely drop out of seed contention. Look for SDSU to claw their way back in and NAU to also sneek into the seeding if they can win out in the Big Sky.

Remember, FBS losses do not count in the committees consideration. They only count FBS wins. If Elon runs the table until they lose to JMU, they would be 9-1 against FCS competition at the end of the season. That should get any CAA team a top 8 seed. Unless Stony Brook moves up past them, Elon should still be a seeded team if their only loss is to the #1 seed. There should always be at least two CAA and two MVC teams in the top 8. The two conferences are just better than the rest and deserve the seeding when a team goes 9-1.
11-03-2017 08:38 AM
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JMU_Degenerate Offline
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Post: #63
RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
(11-03-2017 08:38 AM)JMUNation Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 04:48 AM)Yesolitis Wrote:  The upset factor - any given saturday, yada yada yada

URI was very close to having 5 wins at this point in the season that included a FBS win. They are no easy out despite having only 2 wins. I think this game will be more uncomfortably close than most would like to see. I'd love a 80-point drubbing again, but I just don't see that happening.

About the rankings - if South Dakota wins out, they'll be at 2 or 3 with a win over NDSU. They have a few tough games and just lost a couple players to suspensions. I suspect they will drop and we see Central Arkansas at 4. In any event, I highly doubt USD remains at 4.

If we take care of business and beat Elon, they'll likely drop out of seed contention. Look for SDSU to claw their way back in and NAU to also sneek into the seeding if they can win out in the Big Sky.

Remember, FBS losses do not count in the committees consideration. They only count FBS wins. If Elon runs the table until they lose to JMU, they would be 9-1 against FCS competition at the end of the season. That should get any CAA team a top 8 seed. Unless Stony Brook moves up past them, Elon should still be a seeded team if their only loss is to the #1 seed. There should always be at least two CAA and two MVC teams in the top 8. The two conferences are just better than the rest and deserve the seeding when a team goes 9-1.

(1) It is possible that the SRS does count FBS losses they just hurt 0.1 less than an FCS loss. JMU got a value of 1.35 (1.25 for road win +.10 bonus for FBS) for beating ECU on the road. It is possible that Elon got dinged a value of -0.65 (-.75 for road loss + .1 bonus for FBS) for losing at Toledo. I am not positive but that is certainly possible within the wording of the SRS procedures.
"An additional bonus/penalty of +/- 0.1 is added/deducted for games that FCS teams play against FBS/non-Division I opponents."

(2) Sagarin Conference Ratings dont agree with your statement about MVFC and CAA being "just better than the rest". The MVFC definitely is. JMU is in a second tier with a few others.
Tier 1
MVFC 61.12 (AQ)
Tier 2
Colonial 50.05 (AQ)
Big Sky 49.43 (AQ)
Southern 49.29 (AQ)
Tier 3
Ohio Valley 42.81 (AQ)
Big South 41.93 (AQ)
Ivy 41.54 (at large only)
Southland 38.95 (AQ)
Tier 4
Northeast 33.93 (AQ)
Patriot 32.87 (AQ)
MEAC 29.54 (at large only)
SWAC 28.62/22.74 (at large only)
Pioneer 20.84 (AQ)
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2017 10:46 AM by JMU_Degenerate.)
11-03-2017 10:37 AM
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2Buck Offline
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RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
(11-03-2017 10:37 AM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 08:38 AM)JMUNation Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 04:48 AM)Yesolitis Wrote:  The upset factor - any given saturday, yada yada yada

URI was very close to having 5 wins at this point in the season that included a FBS win. They are no easy out despite having only 2 wins. I think this game will be more uncomfortably close than most would like to see. I'd love a 80-point drubbing again, but I just don't see that happening.

About the rankings - if South Dakota wins out, they'll be at 2 or 3 with a win over NDSU. They have a few tough games and just lost a couple players to suspensions. I suspect they will drop and we see Central Arkansas at 4. In any event, I highly doubt USD remains at 4.

If we take care of business and beat Elon, they'll likely drop out of seed contention. Look for SDSU to claw their way back in and NAU to also sneek into the seeding if they can win out in the Big Sky.

Remember, FBS losses do not count in the committees consideration. They only count FBS wins. If Elon runs the table until they lose to JMU, they would be 9-1 against FCS competition at the end of the season. That should get any CAA team a top 8 seed. Unless Stony Brook moves up past them, Elon should still be a seeded team if their only loss is to the #1 seed. There should always be at least two CAA and two MVC teams in the top 8. The two conferences are just better than the rest and deserve the seeding when a team goes 9-1.

two things:
(1) It is possible that the SRS does count FBS losses they just hurt 0.1 less than an FCS loss.
"An additional bonus/penalty of +/- 0.1 is added/deducted for games that FCS teams play against FBS/non-Division I opponents."
(2) Sagarin Conference Ratings dont agree with your statement about MVFC and CAA being "just better than the rest". The MVFC is definitely is. JMU is in a second tier with a few others.
Tier 1
MVFC 61.12 (AQ)
Tier 2
Colonial 50.05 (AQ)
Big Sky 49.43 (AQ)
Southern 49.29 (AQ)
Tier 3
Ohio Valley 42.81 (AQ)
Big South 41.93 (AQ)
Ivy 41.54 (at large only)
Southland 38.95 (AQ)
Tier 4
Northeast 33.93 (AQ)
Patriot 32.87 (AQ)
MEAC 29.54 (at large only)
SWAC 28.62/22.74 (at large only)
Pioneer 20.84 (AQ)

The way I see it, the CAA had a few teams every season that were clearly better than the rest of the conference. The majority usually included a mix of Nova, Richmond, UNH, JMU, and Delaware. I can't recall any other season when at least 2, let alone 3 or more, of those teams weren't in the playoffs and Top 10 or close.

This year is just bizarro. Not only are all those teams except us just about outside the Top 20, the new CAA power representatives (Elon and Stony Brook) are so new to the scene that I don't folks know how/where to rank them. Does anyone really know for sure if they're legit, or have the traditional powers just fallen that far? It does help that Elon beat "tough" OOC teams like Furman and Chuck South but those conferences seem hosed this year as well.

Not sure how you compare that mess to MVFC. So I don't blame voters for giving them the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. To some the CAA may very well end up looking like the Southland or OVC this year, with one clear power and the rest a big pile of stank. Hope that's not the case but until these new powers get some wins in the playoffs we're not looking like a power conference at all.
11-03-2017 10:55 AM
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2Buck Offline
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RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
I'm bored at work so I put this together for reference.

[Image: BxMBJV6.jpg]
11-03-2017 11:23 AM
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Dukester Online
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Post: #66
RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
(11-03-2017 10:37 AM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 08:38 AM)JMUNation Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 04:48 AM)Yesolitis Wrote:  The upset factor - any given saturday, yada yada yada

URI was very close to having 5 wins at this point in the season that included a FBS win. They are no easy out despite having only 2 wins. I think this game will be more uncomfortably close than most would like to see. I'd love a 80-point drubbing again, but I just don't see that happening.

About the rankings - if South Dakota wins out, they'll be at 2 or 3 with a win over NDSU. They have a few tough games and just lost a couple players to suspensions. I suspect they will drop and we see Central Arkansas at 4. In any event, I highly doubt USD remains at 4.

If we take care of business and beat Elon, they'll likely drop out of seed contention. Look for SDSU to claw their way back in and NAU to also sneek into the seeding if they can win out in the Big Sky.

Remember, FBS losses do not count in the committees consideration. They only count FBS wins. If Elon runs the table until they lose to JMU, they would be 9-1 against FCS competition at the end of the season. That should get any CAA team a top 8 seed. Unless Stony Brook moves up past them, Elon should still be a seeded team if their only loss is to the #1 seed. There should always be at least two CAA and two MVC teams in the top 8. The two conferences are just better than the rest and deserve the seeding when a team goes 9-1.

(1) It is possible that the SRS does count FBS losses they just hurt 0.1 less than an FCS loss. JMU got a value of 1.35 (1.25 for road win +.10 bonus for FBS) for beating ECU on the road. It is possible that Elon got dinged a value of -0.65 (-.75 for road loss + .1 bonus for FBS) for losing at Toledo. I am not positive but that is certainly possible within the wording of the SRS procedures.
"An additional bonus/penalty of +/- 0.1 is added/deducted for games that FCS teams play against FBS/non-Division I opponents."

(2) Sagarin Conference Ratings dont agree with your statement about MVFC and CAA being "just better than the rest". The MVFC definitely is. JMU is in a second tier with a few others.
Tier 1
MVFC 61.12 (AQ)
Tier 2
Colonial 50.05 (AQ)
Big Sky 49.43 (AQ)
Southern 49.29 (AQ)
Tier 3
Ohio Valley 42.81 (AQ)
Big South 41.93 (AQ)
Ivy 41.54 (at large only)
Southland 38.95 (AQ)
Tier 4
Northeast 33.93 (AQ)
Patriot 32.87 (AQ)
MEAC 29.54 (at large only)
SWAC 28.62/22.74 (at large only)
Pioneer 20.84 (AQ)

I so get this.

But most believe it's computer bias. 03-lmfao
11-03-2017 11:34 AM
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Potomac Offline
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Post: #67
RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
(11-03-2017 11:23 AM)2Buck Wrote:  I'm bored at work so I put this together for reference.

[Image: BxMBJV6.jpg]

Rhode Island last appeared in the playoffs when the CAA was known as the Yankee Conference. All three newcomers (Albany, Stony Brook and Elon) haven't appeared in the playoffs since joining the CAA but it looks like two of those three will finally crack that seal this year.
The eight other members of the CAA have all appeared in the playoffs in the last seven years. Can the MVFC even tote that? 8 different members in the playoffs since 2010?
11-03-2017 11:44 AM
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2Buck Offline
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RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
(11-03-2017 11:44 AM)Potomac Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 11:23 AM)2Buck Wrote:  I'm bored at work so I put this together for reference.

[Image: BxMBJV6.jpg]

Rhode Island last appeared in the playoffs when the CAA was known as the Yankee Conference. All three newcomers (Albany, Stony Brook and Elon) haven't appeared in the playoffs since joining the CAA but it looks like two of those three will finally crack that seal this year.
The eight other members of the CAA have all appeared in the playoffs in the last seven years. Can the MVFC even tote that? 8 different members in the playoffs since 2010?

I don't think there's any conference that can claim to have the overall success the CAA has had since 2000, but NDSU seems to have led a perception shift since their run that may very well culminate in this year's playoffs. If we beat Elon as expected, and Stony Brook and the others all lose another game or more, right or wrong we could very well see the following:

Seeded Teams: CAA (1), MVFC (3)
Playoff Teams: CAA (3), MVFC (5)
11-03-2017 11:59 AM
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JMURocks Offline
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Post: #69
RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
(11-03-2017 10:37 AM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  (2) Sagarin Conference Ratings dont agree with your statement about MVFC and CAA being "just better than the rest". The MVFC definitely is. JMU is in a second tier with a few others.
Tier 1
MVFC 61.12 (AQ)
Tier 2
Colonial 50.05 (AQ)
Big Sky 49.43 (AQ)
Southern 49.29 (AQ)
Tier 3
Ohio Valley 42.81 (AQ)
Big South 41.93 (AQ)
Ivy 41.54 (at large only)
Southland 38.95 (AQ)
Tier 4
Northeast 33.93 (AQ)
Patriot 32.87 (AQ)
MEAC 29.54 (at large only)
SWAC 28.62/22.74 (at large only)
Pioneer 20.84 (AQ)

It all depends whose "computer rating" you believe.
Versus has a different answer for Conference strength based on their algorithm:

1. ACC : Rating 0.5243
2. Big Ten : Rating 0.5243
3. SEC : Rating 0.4893
4. Pac-12 : Rating 0.4725
5. AAC : Rating 0.3183
6. Big 12 : Rating 0.2290
7. MAC : Rating -0.1117
8. MWC : Rating -0.2267
9. FBS Indy : Rating -0.2625
10. CAA : Rating -0.3742
11. CUSA: Rating -0.4000
12. MVFC : Rating -0.4460
13. SoCon : Rating -0.8567
14. SunBelt : Rating -0.9650
15. Big Sky : Rating -1.0346
16. Ivy League : Rating -1.0346
17. Big South : Rating -1.1767
18. OVC : Rating -1.4856
19. NEC : Rating -1.5786
20. Southland : Rating -1.6200
21. Mid-America : Rating -1.9050 (D2)
22. MEAC : Rating -2.0400
23. Patriot : Rating -2.0671

I'm all for computer ratings, just have a hard time understanding why folks are so religious about Sagarin ... simply because they are in the newspaper?

Versus rank of FCS Conferences:
1 (10) CAA : Rating -0.3742
2 (12) MVFC : Rating -0.4460
3 (13) SoCon : Rating -0.8567
4 (15) Big Sky : Rating -1.0346
5 (16) Ivy League : Rating -1.0346
6 (17) Big South : Rating -1.1767
7 (18) OVC : Rating -1.4856
8 (19) NEC : Rating -1.5786
9 (20) Southland : Rating -1.6200
10 (22) MEAC : Rating -2.0400
11 (23) Patriot : Rating -2.0671

Again, no issue with computer rankings, but I do question that Sagarin is the infallible "word of god" when it comes to ranking teams and conferences. Versus says that this year the CAA is the 1st tier, and ahead of CUSA and Sunbelt.
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2017 12:24 PM by JMURocks.)
11-03-2017 12:10 PM
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BleedingPurple Offline
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RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
(11-03-2017 10:55 AM)2Buck Wrote:  The way I see it, the CAA had a few teams every season that were clearly better than the rest of the conference. The majority usually included a mix of Nova, Richmond, UNH, JMU, and Delaware. I can't recall any other season when at least 2, let alone 3 or more, of those teams weren't in the playoffs and Top 10 or close.

This year is just bizarro. Not only are all those teams except us just about outside the Top 20, the new CAA power representatives (Elon and Stony Brook) are so new to the scene that I don't folks know how/where to rank them. Does anyone really know for sure if they're legit, or have the traditional powers just fallen that far? It does help that Elon beat "tough" OOC teams like Furman and Chuck South but those conferences seem hosed this year as well.

Not sure how you compare that mess to MVFC. So I don't blame voters for giving them the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. To some the CAA may very well end up looking like the Southland or OVC this year, with one clear power and the rest a big pile of stank. Hope that's not the case but until these new powers get some wins in the playoffs we're not looking like a power conference at all.

While I do agree with your statement, I took a moment to look up 2013 when Towson went to the championship, and I forgot that Maine won the conference that season. So, occasionally others do crack into the top of the conference, just as some of the regulars at the top have an off year occasionally. It's been a very long time since the Dukes could viewed as "a probable win" on an opponent's schedule. You'd need to go all the way back to 2001 to give the "Bottom Dweller" award to us.
11-03-2017 12:47 PM
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EvanJ Offline
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Post: #71
RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
(11-03-2017 10:37 AM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 08:38 AM)JMUNation Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 04:48 AM)Yesolitis Wrote:  The upset factor - any given saturday, yada yada yada

URI was very close to having 5 wins at this point in the season that included a FBS win. They are no easy out despite having only 2 wins. I think this game will be more uncomfortably close than most would like to see. I'd love a 80-point drubbing again, but I just don't see that happening.

About the rankings - if South Dakota wins out, they'll be at 2 or 3 with a win over NDSU. They have a few tough games and just lost a couple players to suspensions. I suspect they will drop and we see Central Arkansas at 4. In any event, I highly doubt USD remains at 4.

If we take care of business and beat Elon, they'll likely drop out of seed contention. Look for SDSU to claw their way back in and NAU to also sneek into the seeding if they can win out in the Big Sky.

Remember, FBS losses do not count in the committees consideration. They only count FBS wins. If Elon runs the table until they lose to JMU, they would be 9-1 against FCS competition at the end of the season. That should get any CAA team a top 8 seed. Unless Stony Brook moves up past them, Elon should still be a seeded team if their only loss is to the #1 seed. There should always be at least two CAA and two MVC teams in the top 8. The two conferences are just better than the rest and deserve the seeding when a team goes 9-1.

(1) It is possible that the SRS does count FBS losses they just hurt 0.1 less than an FCS loss. JMU got a value of 1.35 (1.25 for road win +.10 bonus for FBS) for beating ECU on the road. It is possible that Elon got dinged a value of -0.65 (-.75 for road loss + .1 bonus for FBS) for losing at Toledo. I am not positive but that is certainly possible within the wording of the SRS procedures.
"An additional bonus/penalty of +/- 0.1 is added/deducted for games that FCS teams play against FBS/non-Division I opponents."

(2) Sagarin Conference Ratings dont agree with your statement about MVFC and CAA being "just better than the rest". The MVFC definitely is. JMU is in a second tier with a few others.
Tier 1
MVFC 61.12 (AQ)
Tier 2
Colonial 50.05 (AQ)
Big Sky 49.43 (AQ)
Southern 49.29 (AQ)
Tier 3
Ohio Valley 42.81 (AQ)
Big South 41.93 (AQ)
Ivy 41.54 (at large only)
Southland 38.95 (AQ)
Tier 4
Northeast 33.93 (AQ)
Patriot 32.87 (AQ)
MEAC 29.54 (at large only)
SWAC 28.62/22.74 (at large only)
Pioneer 20.84 (AQ)
The CAA is closer to the Big Sky and the Southern than to the MVFC, but the CAA has had much better playoff success than the Big Sky and the Southern, which you could use to argue the CAA should be grouped with the MVFC ahead of them. The last FCS Final appearance by a team currently in the Southern was Furman's loss in 2001. From 2002 to 2016 the CAA has five titles, which are all by teams still in the CAA. The CAA has four Final losses, with three by teams still in the CAA and one by now-FBS team Massachusetts. The Big Sky had Montana beat Furman in the 2001 Final and has 1 championship and 3 Final losses since then. The CAA had Delaware, you, Richmond, and Villanova win championship in seven years from 2003 through 2009. I wonder how many times a conference has had four different teams be champions in seven or fewer consecutive seasons of any sport. Out of the last 20 FCS champions who are still in FCS, the MVFC has 10, the CAA has 5, the Big Sky has 3, and the Ohio Valley and Southern have 1 each.
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2017 04:28 PM by EvanJ.)
11-03-2017 04:27 PM
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91Alum Offline
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RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
(11-03-2017 04:27 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 10:37 AM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 08:38 AM)JMUNation Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 04:48 AM)Yesolitis Wrote:  The upset factor - any given saturday, yada yada yada

URI was very close to having 5 wins at this point in the season that included a FBS win. They are no easy out despite having only 2 wins. I think this game will be more uncomfortably close than most would like to see. I'd love a 80-point drubbing again, but I just don't see that happening.

About the rankings - if South Dakota wins out, they'll be at 2 or 3 with a win over NDSU. They have a few tough games and just lost a couple players to suspensions. I suspect they will drop and we see Central Arkansas at 4. In any event, I highly doubt USD remains at 4.

If we take care of business and beat Elon, they'll likely drop out of seed contention. Look for SDSU to claw their way back in and NAU to also sneek into the seeding if they can win out in the Big Sky.

Remember, FBS losses do not count in the committees consideration. They only count FBS wins. If Elon runs the table until they lose to JMU, they would be 9-1 against FCS competition at the end of the season. That should get any CAA team a top 8 seed. Unless Stony Brook moves up past them, Elon should still be a seeded team if their only loss is to the #1 seed. There should always be at least two CAA and two MVC teams in the top 8. The two conferences are just better than the rest and deserve the seeding when a team goes 9-1.

(1) It is possible that the SRS does count FBS losses they just hurt 0.1 less than an FCS loss. JMU got a value of 1.35 (1.25 for road win +.10 bonus for FBS) for beating ECU on the road. It is possible that Elon got dinged a value of -0.65 (-.75 for road loss + .1 bonus for FBS) for losing at Toledo. I am not positive but that is certainly possible within the wording of the SRS procedures.
"An additional bonus/penalty of +/- 0.1 is added/deducted for games that FCS teams play against FBS/non-Division I opponents."

(2) Sagarin Conference Ratings dont agree with your statement about MVFC and CAA being "just better than the rest". The MVFC definitely is. JMU is in a second tier with a few others.
Tier 1
MVFC 61.12 (AQ)
Tier 2
Colonial 50.05 (AQ)
Big Sky 49.43 (AQ)
Southern 49.29 (AQ)
Tier 3
Ohio Valley 42.81 (AQ)
Big South 41.93 (AQ)
Ivy 41.54 (at large only)
Southland 38.95 (AQ)
Tier 4
Northeast 33.93 (AQ)
Patriot 32.87 (AQ)
MEAC 29.54 (at large only)
SWAC 28.62/22.74 (at large only)
Pioneer 20.84 (AQ)
The CAA is closer to the Big Sky and the Southern than to the MVFC, but the CAA has had much better playoff success than the Big Sky and the Southern, which you could use to argue the CAA should be grouped with the MVFC ahead of them. The last FCS Final appearance by a team currently in the Southern was Furman's loss in 2001. From 2002 to 2016 the CAA has five titles, which are all by teams still in the CAA. The CAA has four Final losses, with three by teams still in the CAA and one by now-FBS team Massachusetts. The Big Sky had Montana beat Furman in the 2001 Final and has 1 championship and 3 Final losses since then. The CAA had Delaware, you, Richmond, and Villanova win championship in seven years from 2003 through 2009. I wonder how many times a conference has had four different teams be champions in seven or fewer consecutive seasons of any sport. Out of the last 20 FCS champions who are still in FCS, the MVFC has 10, the CAA has 5, the Big Sky has 3, and the Ohio Valley and Southern have 1 each.

Not to open the same old can of worms, but this is why many of us have been saying the CAA is a dead end in the long run. There are a few decent teams in the top, but the bottom is so, so bad it drags everything else down. The bottom feeders who will not invest in their programs are killing us. MV doesn't have as many of those.
11-03-2017 05:05 PM
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RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
(11-03-2017 05:05 PM)91Alum Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 04:27 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 10:37 AM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 08:38 AM)JMUNation Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 04:48 AM)Yesolitis Wrote:  The upset factor - any given saturday, yada yada yada

URI was very close to having 5 wins at this point in the season that included a FBS win. They are no easy out despite having only 2 wins. I think this game will be more uncomfortably close than most would like to see. I'd love a 80-point drubbing again, but I just don't see that happening.

About the rankings - if South Dakota wins out, they'll be at 2 or 3 with a win over NDSU. They have a few tough games and just lost a couple players to suspensions. I suspect they will drop and we see Central Arkansas at 4. In any event, I highly doubt USD remains at 4.

If we take care of business and beat Elon, they'll likely drop out of seed contention. Look for SDSU to claw their way back in and NAU to also sneek into the seeding if they can win out in the Big Sky.

Remember, FBS losses do not count in the committees consideration. They only count FBS wins. If Elon runs the table until they lose to JMU, they would be 9-1 against FCS competition at the end of the season. That should get any CAA team a top 8 seed. Unless Stony Brook moves up past them, Elon should still be a seeded team if their only loss is to the #1 seed. There should always be at least two CAA and two MVC teams in the top 8. The two conferences are just better than the rest and deserve the seeding when a team goes 9-1.

(1) It is possible that the SRS does count FBS losses they just hurt 0.1 less than an FCS loss. JMU got a value of 1.35 (1.25 for road win +.10 bonus for FBS) for beating ECU on the road. It is possible that Elon got dinged a value of -0.65 (-.75 for road loss + .1 bonus for FBS) for losing at Toledo. I am not positive but that is certainly possible within the wording of the SRS procedures.
"An additional bonus/penalty of +/- 0.1 is added/deducted for games that FCS teams play against FBS/non-Division I opponents."

(2) Sagarin Conference Ratings dont agree with your statement about MVFC and CAA being "just better than the rest". The MVFC definitely is. JMU is in a second tier with a few others.
Tier 1
MVFC 61.12 (AQ)
Tier 2
Colonial 50.05 (AQ)
Big Sky 49.43 (AQ)
Southern 49.29 (AQ)
Tier 3
Ohio Valley 42.81 (AQ)
Big South 41.93 (AQ)
Ivy 41.54 (at large only)
Southland 38.95 (AQ)
Tier 4
Northeast 33.93 (AQ)
Patriot 32.87 (AQ)
MEAC 29.54 (at large only)
SWAC 28.62/22.74 (at large only)
Pioneer 20.84 (AQ)
The CAA is closer to the Big Sky and the Southern than to the MVFC, but the CAA has had much better playoff success than the Big Sky and the Southern, which you could use to argue the CAA should be grouped with the MVFC ahead of them. The last FCS Final appearance by a team currently in the Southern was Furman's loss in 2001. From 2002 to 2016 the CAA has five titles, which are all by teams still in the CAA. The CAA has four Final losses, with three by teams still in the CAA and one by now-FBS team Massachusetts. The Big Sky had Montana beat Furman in the 2001 Final and has 1 championship and 3 Final losses since then. The CAA had Delaware, you, Richmond, and Villanova win championship in seven years from 2003 through 2009. I wonder how many times a conference has had four different teams be champions in seven or fewer consecutive seasons of any sport. Out of the last 20 FCS champions who are still in FCS, the MVFC has 10, the CAA has 5, the Big Sky has 3, and the Ohio Valley and Southern have 1 each.

Not to open the same old can of worms, but this is why many of us have been saying the CAA is a dead end in the long run. There are a few decent teams in the top, but the bottom is so, so bad it drags everything else down. The bottom feeders who will not invest in their programs are killing us. MV doesn't have as many of those.
The only perennial bottom feeders the CAA has, who havent had success recently, are URI and Albany. And even Albany was briefly ranked earlier this season. And both of them have invested in their programs (Albany new stadium 2013, and URI to a lesser degree an upgrade about a decade ago). And everyone else has either built a new stadium (SBU 2002, RU 2010) or upgraded theirs recently (UNH, W&M) or they’ve made the playoffs recently (2013 Maine, TU (made the NC game)). Maine might have the worst facilities now but at least they’re competitive. VU and UD are basically medium size and large size dumps, but are historically powerful programs. And now in 1 season Elon has been turned around by Cignetti and will be in the playoffs for the 1st time since 09’.
11-03-2017 09:47 PM
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jmuroadwarrior Offline
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RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
(11-03-2017 05:05 PM)91Alum Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 04:27 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 10:37 AM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 08:38 AM)JMUNation Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 04:48 AM)Yesolitis Wrote:  The upset factor - any given saturday, yada yada yada

URI was very close to having 5 wins at this point in the season that included a FBS win. They are no easy out despite having only 2 wins. I think this game will be more uncomfortably close than most would like to see. I'd love a 80-point drubbing again, but I just don't see that happening.

About the rankings - if South Dakota wins out, they'll be at 2 or 3 with a win over NDSU. They have a few tough games and just lost a couple players to suspensions. I suspect they will drop and we see Central Arkansas at 4. In any event, I highly doubt USD remains at 4.

If we take care of business and beat Elon, they'll likely drop out of seed contention. Look for SDSU to claw their way back in and NAU to also sneek into the seeding if they can win out in the Big Sky.

Remember, FBS losses do not count in the committees consideration. They only count FBS wins. If Elon runs the table until they lose to JMU, they would be 9-1 against FCS competition at the end of the season. That should get any CAA team a top 8 seed. Unless Stony Brook moves up past them, Elon should still be a seeded team if their only loss is to the #1 seed. There should always be at least two CAA and two MVC teams in the top 8. The two conferences are just better than the rest and deserve the seeding when a team goes 9-1.

(1) It is possible that the SRS does count FBS losses they just hurt 0.1 less than an FCS loss. JMU got a value of 1.35 (1.25 for road win +.10 bonus for FBS) for beating ECU on the road. It is possible that Elon got dinged a value of -0.65 (-.75 for road loss + .1 bonus for FBS) for losing at Toledo. I am not positive but that is certainly possible within the wording of the SRS procedures.
"An additional bonus/penalty of +/- 0.1 is added/deducted for games that FCS teams play against FBS/non-Division I opponents."

(2) Sagarin Conference Ratings dont agree with your statement about MVFC and CAA being "just better than the rest". The MVFC definitely is. JMU is in a second tier with a few others.
Tier 1
MVFC 61.12 (AQ)
Tier 2
Colonial 50.05 (AQ)
Big Sky 49.43 (AQ)
Southern 49.29 (AQ)
Tier 3
Ohio Valley 42.81 (AQ)
Big South 41.93 (AQ)
Ivy 41.54 (at large only)
Southland 38.95 (AQ)
Tier 4
Northeast 33.93 (AQ)
Patriot 32.87 (AQ)
MEAC 29.54 (at large only)
SWAC 28.62/22.74 (at large only)
Pioneer 20.84 (AQ)
The CAA is closer to the Big Sky and the Southern than to the MVFC, but the CAA has had much better playoff success than the Big Sky and the Southern, which you could use to argue the CAA should be grouped with the MVFC ahead of them. The last FCS Final appearance by a team currently in the Southern was Furman's loss in 2001. From 2002 to 2016 the CAA has five titles, which are all by teams still in the CAA. The CAA has four Final losses, with three by teams still in the CAA and one by now-FBS team Massachusetts. The Big Sky had Montana beat Furman in the 2001 Final and has 1 championship and 3 Final losses since then. The CAA had Delaware, you, Richmond, and Villanova win championship in seven years from 2003 through 2009. I wonder how many times a conference has had four different teams be champions in seven or fewer consecutive seasons of any sport. Out of the last 20 FCS champions who are still in FCS, the MVFC has 10, the CAA has 5, the Big Sky has 3, and the Ohio Valley and Southern have 1 each.

Not to open the same old can of worms, but this is why many of us have been saying the CAA is a dead end in the long run. There are a few decent teams in the top, but the bottom is so, so bad it drags everything else down. The bottom feeders who will not invest in their programs are killing us. MV doesn't have as many of those.

I think CAA bottom feeders are the best.
11-04-2017 06:34 AM
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1998JMU Offline
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Post: #75
RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
(11-04-2017 06:34 AM)jmuroadwarrior Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 05:05 PM)91Alum Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 04:27 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 10:37 AM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 08:38 AM)JMUNation Wrote:  Remember, FBS losses do not count in the committees consideration. They only count FBS wins. If Elon runs the table until they lose to JMU, they would be 9-1 against FCS competition at the end of the season. That should get any CAA team a top 8 seed. Unless Stony Brook moves up past them, Elon should still be a seeded team if their only loss is to the #1 seed. There should always be at least two CAA and two MVC teams in the top 8. The two conferences are just better than the rest and deserve the seeding when a team goes 9-1.

(1) It is possible that the SRS does count FBS losses they just hurt 0.1 less than an FCS loss. JMU got a value of 1.35 (1.25 for road win +.10 bonus for FBS) for beating ECU on the road. It is possible that Elon got dinged a value of -0.65 (-.75 for road loss + .1 bonus for FBS) for losing at Toledo. I am not positive but that is certainly possible within the wording of the SRS procedures.
"An additional bonus/penalty of +/- 0.1 is added/deducted for games that FCS teams play against FBS/non-Division I opponents."

(2) Sagarin Conference Ratings dont agree with your statement about MVFC and CAA being "just better than the rest". The MVFC definitely is. JMU is in a second tier with a few others.
Tier 1
MVFC 61.12 (AQ)
Tier 2
Colonial 50.05 (AQ)
Big Sky 49.43 (AQ)
Southern 49.29 (AQ)
Tier 3
Ohio Valley 42.81 (AQ)
Big South 41.93 (AQ)
Ivy 41.54 (at large only)
Southland 38.95 (AQ)
Tier 4
Northeast 33.93 (AQ)
Patriot 32.87 (AQ)
MEAC 29.54 (at large only)
SWAC 28.62/22.74 (at large only)
Pioneer 20.84 (AQ)
The CAA is closer to the Big Sky and the Southern than to the MVFC, but the CAA has had much better playoff success than the Big Sky and the Southern, which you could use to argue the CAA should be grouped with the MVFC ahead of them. The last FCS Final appearance by a team currently in the Southern was Furman's loss in 2001. From 2002 to 2016 the CAA has five titles, which are all by teams still in the CAA. The CAA has four Final losses, with three by teams still in the CAA and one by now-FBS team Massachusetts. The Big Sky had Montana beat Furman in the 2001 Final and has 1 championship and 3 Final losses since then. The CAA had Delaware, you, Richmond, and Villanova win championship in seven years from 2003 through 2009. I wonder how many times a conference has had four different teams be champions in seven or fewer consecutive seasons of any sport. Out of the last 20 FCS champions who are still in FCS, the MVFC has 10, the CAA has 5, the Big Sky has 3, and the Ohio Valley and Southern have 1 each.

Not to open the same old can of worms, but this is why many of us have been saying the CAA is a dead end in the long run. There are a few decent teams in the top, but the bottom is so, so bad it drags everything else down. The bottom feeders who will not invest in their programs are killing us. MV doesn't have as many of those.

I think CAA bottom feeders are the best.

...as the saying goes when you hit the rock bottom the only option left is to go up!
11-04-2017 07:33 AM
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BDKJMU Offline
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Post: #76
RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
Last week's rankings, updated records:
1 James Madison (9-0)-Won.
2 North Dakota State (8-1)- Lost #8 SDSU 33-21.
3 Jacksonville State (8-1)- Won 59-23 over now 2-7 Murray St.
4 Central Arkansas (8-1)- Won 42-14 over now 1-8 Lamar.
5 South Dakota (7-2)- Lost 34-29 to now 5-4 UNI.
6 Sam Houston State (8-1)- Won 57-20 over now 1-8 Incarnate Word.
7 Elon (8-1)- Won in OT over now 3-6 TU.
8 Wofford (8-1)- Won in OT over now 2-8 UTC.
9 Northern Arizona (6-3)- Lost now 6-3 Montana.
10 South Dakota State (7-2)- Beat #2 NDSU 33-21.
11-06-2017 11:50 AM
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JMURocks Offline
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Post: #77
RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
(11-03-2017 04:27 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 10:37 AM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 08:38 AM)JMUNation Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 04:48 AM)Yesolitis Wrote:  The upset factor - any given saturday, yada yada yada

URI was very close to having 5 wins at this point in the season that included a FBS win. They are no easy out despite having only 2 wins. I think this game will be more uncomfortably close than most would like to see. I'd love a 80-point drubbing again, but I just don't see that happening.

About the rankings - if South Dakota wins out, they'll be at 2 or 3 with a win over NDSU. They have a few tough games and just lost a couple players to suspensions. I suspect they will drop and we see Central Arkansas at 4. In any event, I highly doubt USD remains at 4.

If we take care of business and beat Elon, they'll likely drop out of seed contention. Look for SDSU to claw their way back in and NAU to also sneek into the seeding if they can win out in the Big Sky.

Remember, FBS losses do not count in the committees consideration. They only count FBS wins. If Elon runs the table until they lose to JMU, they would be 9-1 against FCS competition at the end of the season. That should get any CAA team a top 8 seed. Unless Stony Brook moves up past them, Elon should still be a seeded team if their only loss is to the #1 seed. There should always be at least two CAA and two MVC teams in the top 8. The two conferences are just better than the rest and deserve the seeding when a team goes 9-1.

(1) It is possible that the SRS does count FBS losses they just hurt 0.1 less than an FCS loss. JMU got a value of 1.35 (1.25 for road win +.10 bonus for FBS) for beating ECU on the road. It is possible that Elon got dinged a value of -0.65 (-.75 for road loss + .1 bonus for FBS) for losing at Toledo. I am not positive but that is certainly possible within the wording of the SRS procedures.
"An additional bonus/penalty of +/- 0.1 is added/deducted for games that FCS teams play against FBS/non-Division I opponents."

(2) Sagarin Conference Ratings dont agree with your statement about MVFC and CAA being "just better than the rest". The MVFC definitely is. JMU is in a second tier with a few others.
Tier 1
MVFC 61.12 (AQ)
Tier 2
Colonial 50.05 (AQ)
Big Sky 49.43 (AQ)
Southern 49.29 (AQ)
Tier 3
Ohio Valley 42.81 (AQ)
Big South 41.93 (AQ)
Ivy 41.54 (at large only)
Southland 38.95 (AQ)
Tier 4
Northeast 33.93 (AQ)
Patriot 32.87 (AQ)
MEAC 29.54 (at large only)
SWAC 28.62/22.74 (at large only)
Pioneer 20.84 (AQ)
The CAA is closer to the Big Sky and the Southern than to the MVFC, but the CAA has had much better playoff success than the Big Sky and the Southern, which you could use to argue the CAA should be grouped with the MVFC ahead of them. The last FCS Final appearance by a team currently in the Southern was Furman's loss in 2001. From 2002 to 2016 the CAA has five titles, which are all by teams still in the CAA. The CAA has four Final losses, with three by teams still in the CAA and one by now-FBS team Massachusetts. The Big Sky had Montana beat Furman in the 2001 Final and has 1 championship and 3 Final losses since then. The CAA had Delaware, you, Richmond, and Villanova win championship in seven years from 2003 through 2009. I wonder how many times a conference has had four different teams be champions in seven or fewer consecutive seasons of any sport. Out of the last 20 FCS champions who are still in FCS, the MVFC has 10, the CAA has 5, the Big Sky has 3, and the Ohio Valley and Southern have 1 each.

There's another way to look at this though ...

Out of the last 30 years, only TWO MVFC teams have won a championship, YSU in the 90's and the Bison more recently.

In the meantime, the CAA had FIVE different teams win a national championship. If the Bison hadn't won so many times, this would be a very different discussion.

--
Also - 7 of the last 10 years a CAA team played in the Championship game, compared to 5 of the last 10 for MVFC (again only NDSU made it).
--
This suggests to me the MVFC tends to have a single dominant team, while the CAA tends to have more strong teams in contention.
(This post was last modified: 11-06-2017 05:59 PM by JMURocks.)
11-06-2017 05:44 PM
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Bisonlurker Offline
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Post: #78
RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
(11-06-2017 05:44 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 04:27 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 10:37 AM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 08:38 AM)JMUNation Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 04:48 AM)Yesolitis Wrote:  The upset factor - any given saturday, yada yada yada

URI was very close to having 5 wins at this point in the season that included a FBS win. They are no easy out despite having only 2 wins. I think this game will be more uncomfortably close than most would like to see. I'd love a 80-point drubbing again, but I just don't see that happening.

About the rankings - if South Dakota wins out, they'll be at 2 or 3 with a win over NDSU. They have a few tough games and just lost a couple players to suspensions. I suspect they will drop and we see Central Arkansas at 4. In any event, I highly doubt USD remains at 4.

If we take care of business and beat Elon, they'll likely drop out of seed contention. Look for SDSU to claw their way back in and NAU to also sneek into the seeding if they can win out in the Big Sky.

Remember, FBS losses do not count in the committees consideration. They only count FBS wins. If Elon runs the table until they lose to JMU, they would be 9-1 against FCS competition at the end of the season. That should get any CAA team a top 8 seed. Unless Stony Brook moves up past them, Elon should still be a seeded team if their only loss is to the #1 seed. There should always be at least two CAA and two MVC teams in the top 8. The two conferences are just better than the rest and deserve the seeding when a team goes 9-1.

(1) It is possible that the SRS does count FBS losses they just hurt 0.1 less than an FCS loss. JMU got a value of 1.35 (1.25 for road win +.10 bonus for FBS) for beating ECU on the road. It is possible that Elon got dinged a value of -0.65 (-.75 for road loss + .1 bonus for FBS) for losing at Toledo. I am not positive but that is certainly possible within the wording of the SRS procedures.
"An additional bonus/penalty of +/- 0.1 is added/deducted for games that FCS teams play against FBS/non-Division I opponents."

(2) Sagarin Conference Ratings dont agree with your statement about MVFC and CAA being "just better than the rest". The MVFC definitely is. JMU is in a second tier with a few others.
Tier 1
MVFC 61.12 (AQ)
Tier 2
Colonial 50.05 (AQ)
Big Sky 49.43 (AQ)
Southern 49.29 (AQ)
Tier 3
Ohio Valley 42.81 (AQ)
Big South 41.93 (AQ)
Ivy 41.54 (at large only)
Southland 38.95 (AQ)
Tier 4
Northeast 33.93 (AQ)
Patriot 32.87 (AQ)
MEAC 29.54 (at large only)
SWAC 28.62/22.74 (at large only)
Pioneer 20.84 (AQ)
The CAA is closer to the Big Sky and the Southern than to the MVFC, but the CAA has had much better playoff success than the Big Sky and the Southern, which you could use to argue the CAA should be grouped with the MVFC ahead of them. The last FCS Final appearance by a team currently in the Southern was Furman's loss in 2001. From 2002 to 2016 the CAA has five titles, which are all by teams still in the CAA. The CAA has four Final losses, with three by teams still in the CAA and one by now-FBS team Massachusetts. The Big Sky had Montana beat Furman in the 2001 Final and has 1 championship and 3 Final losses since then. The CAA had Delaware, you, Richmond, and Villanova win championship in seven years from 2003 through 2009. I wonder how many times a conference has had four different teams be champions in seven or fewer consecutive seasons of any sport. Out of the last 20 FCS champions who are still in FCS, the MVFC has 10, the CAA has 5, the Big Sky has 3, and the Ohio Valley and Southern have 1 each.

There's another way to look at this though ...

Out of the last 30 years, only TWO MVFC teams have won a championship, YSU in the 90's and the Bison more recently.

In the meantime, the CAA had FIVE different teams win a national championship. If the Bison hadn't won so many times, this would be a very different discussion.

--
Also - 7 of the last 10 years a CAA team played in the Championship game, compared to 5 of the last 10 for MVFC (again only NDSU made it).
--
This suggests to me the MVFC tends to have a single dominant team, while the CAA tends to have more strong teams in contention.

Don't forget Youngstown last year so 6 of 10 years and NDSU beat Illinois St. a couple years back in Frisco but get what you are saying. It is tough to compare historically tho because MVFC has recently added USD, SDSU & NDSU.
Right now I would definitely put you guys up with the MVFC in overall strength of teams.
11-06-2017 06:16 PM
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JMUNation Offline
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Post: #79
RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
Sagarin ratings etc. mean little to me. The eye test means everything. Watching both leagues play, I see them as equal.
11-06-2017 10:37 PM
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RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
(11-06-2017 10:37 PM)JMUNation Wrote:  Sagarin ratings etc. mean little to me. The eye test means everything. Watching both leagues play, I see them as equal.

Problem is everyone has different eyesite.

Sagarins back how our conference did ooc.

If you look how the CAA faired in OOC you'll see why we are a distant second.

I think the sagarins show how dominant JMU is, including over our own conference. The rating makes sense. The ratings of the conferences are just as real.
11-10-2017 01:12 PM
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