I'm not expecting this to happen, and I think the odds are fairly long, but we might as well through it out there as thought provoking discussion.

If JMU were to lose one of the next three games:

Is a top 2 seed possible? Probable? How about top 4?

If JMU were to lose two of the next three games:

Is a top 4 seed possible? Probable? How about top 8?

I happen to think that a loss to anyone but Elon, and a top 4 seed is a lock and its maybe 40/60 for a top 2 seed.

Two losses and top 4 is out, but top 8 is a lock unless an unimaginable loss to URI occurs.

Thoughts?

I assume...
Win out and a top 2 seed (HFA throughout) is a lock
Lose 1 and JMU gets a bye and is probably in the 4-6 seed range (maybe host 2 games, maybe not).
Lose 2 and host a game Thanksgiving weekend (JMU would be close to being seeded and would be something like the 9-12 seed if their was such a thing)
Lose 3 and host a game Thanksgiving weekend

(one key component, a loss to Elon and they probably win the CAA)

Bad MOJO.
we are gonna win them all so stop thinking like that!

I would think 1 loss would make Top 2 possible still and pretty certain top 4, but not sure how the committee is going to treat the 1 loss teams to differentiate. FBS win and defending champs you would think not hurt cause even if probably isn't in the "criteria'.

Would be very unlikely JMU loses a regular season game, hope it doesn't happen for home field to frisco purposes.

(10-30-2017 03:48 PM)UofRfan Wrote:  I would think 1 loss would make Top 2 possible still and pretty certain top 4, but not sure how the committee is going to treat the 1 loss teams to differentiate. FBS win and defending champs you would think not hurt cause even if probably isn't in the "criteria'.

Would be very unlikely JMU loses a regular season game, hope it doesn't happen for home field to frisco purposes.

Jacksonville State's only loss last year was to LSU (undefeated in FCS) and they couldnt get onto the 1/2 seed line. I cannot imagine a 1-loss (late in season) JMU team being a top 2 seed based on the past seeding of the FCS Committee. Maybe a 3, more likely in the 4-6 range. Especially if their loss is to Elon and Elon wins the CAA outright.

(10-30-2017 03:47 PM)Flyrod Wrote:  Bad MOJO.
we are gonna win them all so stop thinking like that!

LOL I hear you. But we are fans and this is a message board. Right?

(10-30-2017 03:59 PM)PhillyDuke Wrote:  

(10-30-2017 03:47 PM)Flyrod Wrote:  Bad MOJO.
we are gonna win them all so stop thinking like that!

LOL I hear you. But we are fans and this is a message board. Right?

Yea I was just giving ya crap!
all good,,,

yeah... lose 1 and we are a 2 seed ... lose 2, and probably 4 seed

but all hypothetical since we win out (knock wood)

The sooner you have a loss in the season the better, so that you can work your way back up after the initial fall (assuming you win moving forward). Year after year there are teams that lose early and then end up ahead of a team that loses later, even though they lost to that very team (Ohio State/Oklahoma for example). Coaches poll dropped TCU below the Okla State team they beat earlier in the season. Georgia could end up being another example, they could lose and get passed by Notre Dame.

Can’t lose to URI nor Elon. If JMU lost to UR due to numerous turnovers in deplorable weather conditions etc etc then... 20 wins in a row. Beating an FBS. Losing one conference game in a fluky way after dominating everyone for 9 games this season then winning the CAA title game in convincing fashion at Elon, might still get JMU a top 2 seed. I think definitely a top 4 seed.

Top 4 seed would most likely happen, but I doubt we'd get a top 2 seed unless the loss is very close to Elon.

It really depends on what happens to the others in the top 5. NDSU has a much tougher schedule playing SDSU, South Dakota and Ill St. They could easily lose one of those games. If we were also to lose, I don't think we'd get knocked out of the top 4. If we were the only one, then we could get moved down quite a bit.
Lose to URI and the result would be catastrophic.
Thankfully we have a coaching staff that will not overlook any of our opponents.

At this stage of the season with all that is at stake, it is doubtful any team would come out flat against an opponent. Those things usually happen earlier in the season.

Historical perspective of JMU
AT 10-1:
2008 :10-1/8-0, #1 seed
2016 10-1/8-0 #4 seed

At 9-2:
2004 9-2/7-1: Playoffs only seeded top 4. W&M at 9-2/7-1 won the head to head, AQ, #4 seed. If had seeded 1-8 that year JMU I think certainly would have been a top 8 seed.
2006 9-2/7-1: Playoffs only seeded top 4. Likely would have been the #5 seed if seeded 1-8. At #4 seed YSU in the 1st round (then round of 16) was essentially #5 vs #4.
2015: 9-2/6-2: #5 seed. (FWIW RU was #7 seed at 8-3/6-2).

(10-30-2017 03:43 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  I assume...
Win out and a top 2 seed (HFA throughout) is a lock
Lose 1 and JMU gets a bye and is probably in the 4-6 seed range (maybe host 2 games, maybe not).
Lose 2 and host a game Thanksgiving weekend (JMU would be close to being seeded and would be something like the 9-12 seed if their was such a thing)
Lose 3 and host a game Thanksgiving weekend

(one key component, a loss to Elon and they probably win the CAA)

JMU goes 10-1/7-1 is still a top 4 seed. 9-2/6-2 (as long as don't lose to URI) is still a top 8 seed. Heck, in 2015 lost 2 of last 4 games to finish 9-2/6-2 and were still the #5 seed (although shouldn't have been).

I think we only stay a #2 seed if we lose a close game to Richmond.

Lauletta has lots of national cred and their offense has been putting up huge numbers. I still think JMU's D can handle them, though.

(10-30-2017 10:55 PM)DukeDogNation Wrote:  I think we only stay a #2 seed if we lose a close game to Richmond.

Lauletta has lots of national cred and their offense has been putting up huge numbers. I still think JMU's D can handle them, though.

Yep. Briscoe had about as much national cred as you can get, but look what we did to him/them. Oh wait. Silly me. He was injured and it had nothing to do with our smothering defense.

(10-31-2017 05:34 AM)Wear Purple Wrote:  

(10-30-2017 10:55 PM)DukeDogNation Wrote:  I think we only stay a #2 seed if we lose a close game to Richmond.

Lauletta has lots of national cred and their offense has been putting up huge numbers. I still think JMU's D can handle them, though.

Yep. Briscoe had about as much national cred as you can get, but look what we did to him/them. Oh wait. Silly me. He was injured and it had nothing to do with our smothering defense.

Yeah absolutely nothing at all. While I really don't want to deal with their fan base again, I'd love to put them in their place with a healthy Briscoe. Maybe they'll make it a close one and lose 65-10.

(10-30-2017 03:38 PM)PhillyDuke Wrote:  I'm not expecting this to happen, and I think the odds are fairly long, but we might as well through it out there as thought provoking discussion.

If JMU were to lose one of the next three games:

Is a top 2 seed possible? Probable? How about top 4?

If JMU were to lose two of the next three games:

Is a top 4 seed possible? Probable? How about top 8?

I happen to think that a loss to anyone but Elon, and a top 4 seed is a lock and its maybe 40/60 for a top 2 seed.

Two losses and top 4 is out, but top 8 is a lock unless an unimaginable loss to URI occurs.

Thoughts?

don't need to even discuss this, we are not going to lose a game. Best coaches and best team!

(10-31-2017 07:48 AM)JMad03 Wrote:  

(10-31-2017 05:34 AM)Wear Purple Wrote:  

(10-30-2017 10:55 PM)DukeDogNation Wrote:  I think we only stay a #2 seed if we lose a close game to Richmond.

Lauletta has lots of national cred and their offense has been putting up huge numbers. I still think JMU's D can handle them, though.

Yep. Briscoe had about as much national cred as you can get, but look what we did to him/them. Oh wait. Silly me. He was injured and it had nothing to do with our smothering defense.

Yeah absolutely nothing at all. While I really don't want to deal with their fan base again, I'd love to put them in their place with a healthy Briscoe. Maybe they'll make it a close one and lose 65-10.

They'll just come up with another excuse. Maybe Keeler didn't get enough sleep the night before because he forgot to pack his Summer's Eve.