To keep things in perspective:

2014 initial and final rankings, with final ranking of the initial top four and the initial ranking of final top four in parentheses. Also, an "*" indicates an initial top 4 team that played in an NY6 bowl either playoff or non-playoff.

1) Mississippi State* (7) .................................. Alabama (6)
2) FSU* (2) .................................................... Oregon (5)
3) Auburn (19) ............................................... FSU (2)
4) Ole Miss* (9) ............................................ Ohio State (16)

2015:

1) Clemson*(1) ............................................. Clemson (1)
2) LSU (20) .................................................. Alabama (4)
3) Ohio State* (7) ..........................................Michigan State (7)
4) Alabama*(2) ............................................. Oklahoma (15)


2016:

1) Alabama*(1) ............................................. Alabama (1)
2) Clemson*(2) ............................................. Clemson (2)
3) Michigan*(7) ............................................. Ohio State (6)
4) TAMU (NR) ............................................... Washington (5)


Comments (and yes, I know we're dealing with small numbers/sample sizes, but it's just for fun):

1) Being in the initial top 4 by no means means you will make the playoffs! There's significant turnover: Of the 12 teams in the initial top four, more than half of them, seven, failed to make the playoffs.

Moral: Expect at least two of the current top 4 to not make the playoffs.

2) But, there is some 'stickiness' as well, as 5 of the initial top 4 have advanced, and in no year has at least one of the initial four failed to advance.

Moral: Expect at least one, and probably two, of the current four teams to make the playoffs.

3) All three years (and now four), there have been at least two SEC teams in the initial top 4. But so far, no more than 1 has made it to the playoffs.

Moral: Alabama or Georgia, but not both, will make the playoffs.

4) You don't have to be near the top four to make the playoffs: Ohio State in 2014 and Oklahoma in 2015 both were initially ranked far from the top four, but worked their way in to the playoffs.

Moral: Don't be surprised if a team currently ranked around #15 makes the playoffs. Right now, that could be a team like Virginia Tech, who would have to beat Miami and Clemson to win the ACC title at 12-1.

5) But, it sure does help to be ranked high initially! No team has made the playoffs that was initially ranked lower than #16, and even within the top 16, Ohio State 2014 and Oklahoma 2015 stand out as outliers: fully 10 of the 12 playoffs teams were ranked in the top *7* of the initial rankings. The average initial ranking of a playoff team is 5.8!

Moral: Look to the initial top 8 or 9 teams for your eventual playoff teams. That's where they will likely come from.

6) Initial top 4 teams can collapse. In every year so far, an initial top 4 team has finished ranked 19th or worse in the final rankings, with TAMU finishing unranked. Not surprisingly, all three have been SEC teams.

Moral: Just because a team is in the top 4 doesn't mean it will make an NY6 bowl. In 2014 Auburn ended up in the Outback Bowl, while in 2015 and 2016, LSU and TAMU played in the Advocare 100 Bowl.

7) However, 75% of all initial top 4 teams have played in NY6 bowls, either playoff or non-playoff. In 2014, Ole Miss and Mississippi State fell out of the playoffs but played in the Peach and Orange bowls; in 2015 Ohio State played in the Fiesta Bowl, and in 2016 Michigan played in the Orange Bowl.

Moral: Who will be the team in the 2017 initial four who ends up missing the playoffs, but still has a good enough resume to make an NY6 bowl? I'd put my money on Notre Dame, due to the remaining games on their schedule.

Only 2 of the top 4 teams thru 1st 3 years started outside the top 7.

and using the 16 thing- these big teams are out already....
#17 USC
#19 LSU
#21 Stanford
#24 Michgian St

(11-01-2017 11:37 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Only 2 of the top 4 teams thru 1st 3 years started outside the top 7.

and using the 16 thing- these big teams are out already....
#17 USC
#19 LSU
#21 Stanford
#24 Michgian St

Yep, the average *initial* ranking of an eventual playoff team is 5.8, and that includes the Oklahoma and Ohio State outliers. The vast majority of playoff teams were in very close striking distance in the first rankings.

This is a brilliant post, quo vadis. Great work.
Succinct and informative and enlightening.

It just cracks me up to see the "talking heads" make all of these "hot take" comments about how "Notre Dame is in" or "The Pac-12 has no chance"...when your stats make it very clear that we are in for a lot of change to the top 4.

It's hard for the top 4 to handle the pressure of "staying at the top"...especially if they are a "non-elite" team (see LSU, Auburn, TAMU...the big-droppers). Only seriously elite teams have been able to handle it...Alabama and Clemson ('15 and '16) and FSU (with Jameis in ('14).

So...who is TRULY elite in this group...'Bama and Clemson again? UGA? ND? My money is on Alabama only.

(11-03-2017 07:06 AM)micahandme Wrote:  This is a brilliant post, quo vadis. Great work.
Succinct and informative and enlightening.

Thanks man!

If the committee would just wait another week or so (with 3 weeks to go including CCG's) I doubt you would have anybody out side the top 8-9 teams. Ohio State would have moved up to #8 and Oklahoma to #7 by that point.

(11-06-2017 02:34 PM)ken d Wrote:  If the committee would just wait another week or so (with 3 weeks to go including CCG's) I doubt you would have anybody out side the top 8-9 teams. Ohio State would have moved up to #8 and Oklahoma to #7 by that point.

what's the harm? The teams are going to be the teams no matter when you start.