From an Overall Perspective…

This was not a huge week for shake-ups – amongst the top teams, only Samford losing to Chatty was a real upset. Mostly, the week was just about finishing off the weaker teams who were just barely hanging on mathematically to a possible playoff spot. No conference AQ’s have been clinched yet, but there is a slight chance we could start having those beginning next week. (Although, with no teams really running away with their conference at this point, I wouldn’t bet money on it.)

From a JMU Perspective...

JMU continues to roll with a 21-0 win over UNH. While the offense has been putting up decent numbers, it is really the stifling defense that is powering this team. UNH came into the game having scored no fewer than 22 points in a game this season, but walked away with nothing. Whenever UNH made it into JMU’s territory, the Dukes’ defense stepped up even more – leading to turnovers and missed field goals.

JMU now has 3 games left in their march towards a #1 Seed. URI is next week. This is a team that is a little more dangerous than they have been in the past. Once again, they will not make the playoffs, but you can bet they will be hoping to spoil JMU’s perfect season.

All three remaining opponents have unbalanced offensive attacks – URI and Richmond are heavy towards the pass, while Elon is more geared to the run. This does mean that the Dukes have to be strong against both styles, but at least they know which type of game they’re going to face from week-to-week.

By the Numbers (106 total teams)...

Teams Alive for any Playoff spot:
10/22 – 90
10/29 – 75

Teams Alive for an At-Large spot:
10/22 – 73
10/29 – 65

Teams that have reached 6 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/22 – 11
10/29 – 19


Here's the overall playoff eligibility list. The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can't reach 6 wins. Teams that are in RED cannot reach 6 wins and therefore must win their conference AQ. When a team reaches 6 wins, I will list them in GREEN. When a team clinches an AQ spot, I will list them in BLUE.

CAA (10 Teams Alive)
JMU – 8 wins
Elon – 7 wins
Stony Brook – 6 wins
UNH (2)
Delaware (2)
Richmond (1) – cannot win AQ
Villanova (1) – cannot win AQ
Maine (1) – cannot win AQ
Albany (0) – cannot win AQ
Towson (0) – cannot win AQ

Big Sky (8 Teams Alive)
Northern Arizona – 6 wins
Southern Utah – 6 wins
Montana (2)
EWU (2)
Weber State (2)
Sacramento State (1)
Montana State (1)
UC Davis (1) – cannot win AQ

Big South (5 Teams Alive)
Monmouth – 7 wins
Kennesaw State – 6 wins
Charleston Southern (0)
Presbyterian
Gardner-Webb

MEAC (5 Teams Alive – No AQ)
NC A&T – 7 wins
NC Central (2)
Hampton (1)
Bethune-Cookman (1)
Norfolk State (0)

MVC (8 Teams Alive)
NDSU – 8 wins
South Dakota – 7 wins
Illinois State – 6 wins
SDSU – 6 wins
W. Illinois (2)
No. Iowa (1)
So. Illinois (1)
Youngstown State (0) – cannot win AQ

NEC (5 Teams Alive)
Duquesne – 6 wins
Cent. Conn. State (1)
StFU (1)
Sacred Heart (0)
Bryant

OVC (7 Teams Alive)
Jacksonville State – 7 wins
Austin Peay (2)
E. Illinois (1)
Tenn. State (1) – cannot win AQ
EKU (0)
Tenn.-Martin (0)
SE Missouri State

Patriot League (7 Teams Alive)
Bucknell (1)
Colgate (1)
Lehigh
Fordham
Georgetown
Holy Cross
Lafayette

Pioneer League (8 Teams Alive)
San Diego (2)
Drake (1)
Campbell (0)
Jacksonville (0)
Valparaiso (0)
Marist (0)
Dayton (0)
Butler

SoCon (6 Teams Alive)
Wofford – 7 wins
Western Carolina – 6 wins
Furman (2)
Samford (1)
Mercer (1)
Citadel (1)

Southland (6 Teams Alive)
Central Ark. – 7 wins
Sam Houston State – 7 wins
Nichols State – 6 wins
McNeese State (2)
SE Louisiana (1)
Stephen F. Austin (0)

Must Win Out to reach 6 wins:
Albany
Towson
Charleston Southern
Norfolk State
Youngstown State
Sacred Heart
EKU
Tenn.-Martin
Campbell
Jacksonville
Valparaiso
Marist
Dayton
Stephen F. Austin


Completely Eliminated from the Playoffs (Teams in RED were eliminated this week)
Savannah State (too dumb for postseason)
Florida A&M (too dumb for postseason)
Howard (too dumb for postseason)
Morgan State (too dumb for postseason)
Liberty (transitioning to I-A)
URI
W&M
Idaho State
Northern Colorado
North Dakota
Portland State
Cal Poly
SC State
Delaware State
Missouri State
Indiana State
Wagner
Robert Morris
Tenn. Tech
Murray State
Morehead State
Stetson
Davidson
Chatty
VMI
ETSU
Lamar
Houston Baptist
Abilene Christian
Incarnate Word
NW State


Going for Perfection (no losses of any type)
JMU
NC A&T
NDSU

Race to the Bottom (an 0-fer season)
Portland State
Cal Poly
Indiana State
VMI
Texas Southern


Conference Analysis

CAA – Some good upsets this week as all of the CAA teams played in-conference games. Three teams (Stony Brook, UNH, and Delaware) had a chance to become playoff-eligible, but only Stony was able to do it by burning the Ticks. UNH obviously lost to JMU, but Delaware was then upset by Towson to keep them stuck at 5 wins. Importantly, with JMU and Elon both winning, most teams have now been eliminated from winning the AQ. It looks like it will come down to the last week with the Elon-JMU game for the championship. Meanwhile, Richmond and Villanova are in big trouble. They have both lost two in a row and play each other next week. For all intents and purposes, their playoffs begin now. W&M has now been officially eliminated from the playoffs.

Big Sky – This week saw a big change in the Big Sky as six teams were eliminated from the AQ race – with five of those teams being eliminated completely from the playoffs. We also saw two teams (NAU and SUU) reach 6 wins. NAU is in control of the AQ as they continue a stretch of games against AQ contenders. Last week, they were able to smack down Sacramento State. In the final three weeks, they play three more playoff contenders in Montana, Montana State, and SUU. They have an impressive, 21-point win over Illinois State, so if they win just one more game, they should guarantee themselves at least an At-Large bid. Meanwhile, the rest of the conference will continue to be pared down as the contenders knock each other out.

Big South – All eligible teams are still alive for the playoffs for one more week, but that should change next week. Kennesaw and Monmouth are still perfect in the conference, so the AQ might come down to the final week when they play each other. Kennesaw has an interesting out-of-conference match-up next week again Montana State. A win would help them greatly if they end up losing the AQ and need to rely on an At-Large bid. Monmouth has been racking up wins – but their only opponent to have a winning record is Hampton, so they might have to win the AQ to make it to the playoffs.

MEAC – NC A&T is the only team worth caring about from the MEAC and they had a Bye week this past weekend, so there is nothing new to report. They should win their next two games, so it will be the final game against NC Central which should determine what happens to them after the regular season.

MVC – The MVC now has 4 teams that have reached the 6-win mark with Western Illinois hoping to join that group next weekend. In fact, I’m starting to see a scenario in which we have at least 6 eligible teams in the MVC – all of them legitimate contenders. I can’t see the Committee letting 6 teams in from one conference, so there will be some interesting battles for that last spot. One team to watch: Northern Iowa. They are currently 4-4, so they still have some work to do, but they do have a win over SDSU. If they can beat a good South Dakota team next week, they will have a clear path to finishing with a solid 7-4 record. (Their final 2 games are against weak teams.) If they lose next week, they will likely be out. At the back of the pack is Youngstown – who is very close to being eliminated completely. Their final 3 games are against weak teams, but considering they just lost a game 35-0, finishing with a 6-5 record is not a guarantee – and even if it were, their resume will likely not be strong enough.

NEC – Duquesne won again to reach 6 wins and a clear path for the AQ. They play an out-of-conference game with Liberty next week, so that game means nothing. However, on 11/11 they will play Central Connecticut State – if Duquesne wins, they win the AQ. If they lose, we will have to pay attention to other games. This conference should not get an At-Large, so winning the AQ will be everything.

OVC – With the exception of Jacksonville State, it was not a good week for the top OVC teams. Eastern Illinois, Austin Peay, and Tennessee State all came in with good overall win totals – but they all lost this weekend. Granted, Tennessee State’s record is seriously inflated due to their out-of-conference schedule, and Austin Peay played a second I-A game, but the conference as a whole is not looking very good. Every team aside from Jacksonville State has at least 4 losses already. (Jacksonville State could even clinch the AQ next week.) The OVC seems to be the opposite of the MVC this year – if the MVC does get five teams into the playoffs this year, it will likely come at the expense of the OVC. There is a strong chance that this will be a one-bid conference this year.

Patriot – No one has been completely eliminated yet, but they’re close. Five of the seven teams in the conference have already been eliminated from the At-Large race. Only Bucknell and Colgate can get to 6 wins – and both of them already have 4 losses. No one is running away with the AQ, but at least other conferences do not have to worry about the Patriot League stealing an At-Large bid. This will be a one-bid conference.

Pioneer – San Diego keeps winning by comfortable margins to make them the clear favorite in the Pioneer. They are now 5-0 in the conference – with the smallest margin of victory being 16 points. Their game next week against Drake is their most important game of the year. If they can win, it will be very difficult for them to lose the AQ. If they lose, things get thrown up into the air. Drake and Campbell will be hoping San Diego stumbles, although Campbell losing to Jacksonville hurts them a lot.

SoCon – Last week, there were four teams that had one conference loss...now there are only two. Wofford and Furman are now left alone in first place after Western Carolina and Samford both lost. Wofford has beaten Furman, so they now control their own destiny. Wofford’s final two games are against some of the weakest teams in the conference, but considering all of their wins have been decided by 7 points or less, no game is a gimme. The biggest loser this week is Samford. Their loss to a bad Chatty team puts them in a tough spot. They can now only get to 7 DI wins at most, so any losses will loom large – especially since they play Furman in the final week. (And remember when looking at the “still alive” list, while Furman and Samford play each other in the final week, the other four contenders play P5 teams, so look to for five of the six teams on the list to add a loss that week.)

Southland – The AQ for the Southland should be set. Central Arkansas is now 6-0 in the conference and their final games are against 3 of the worst teams in the conference. Even if they do lose one game, their only threat would be if Nichols wins all three of their final games – which will not be easy. I’ll wait one more week to really go through the other contenders, but these are the teams to watch next week to see who will compete for an At-Large: Nichols, Sam Houston, SE Louisiana, and McNeese. Needless to say, any losses by either one of those teams will be painful for them.

Thanks as always for these. Very informative.

Columbia lost to Yale this weekend. They're no longer undefeated.

Great stuff as usual.

A couple of upcoming scheduling notes...

Soft Houston State has a great shot now at finishing 10-1. Their final 3 games are against teams who are a combined 4-20 overall and 3-15 in the Southland.

On the flip side, North Dakota State's schedule now gets very interesting. Their final 3 are...

N-4 at South Dakota State (6-2/3-2), 3pm ESPN-3
N-11 home vs South Dakota (7-1/4-1), 3:30pm ESPN-3
N-18 at Illinois State (6-2/4-1), 1pm ESPN-3

Wear Purple

Interesting end of the season for NDSU. However don't think I would bet against them based on who they are!!

Soft Houston may wind up 10-1 but I am sure their season will crash and burn just like last year when the post season starts.

Brian

(10-30-2017 10:31 AM)Wear Purple Wrote:  Soft Houston State has a great shot now at finishing 10-1. Their final 3 games are against teams who are a combined 4-20 overall and 3-15 in the Southland.

i'll admit that when I watched Soft Houston against Richmond, I got slightly nervous. Briscoe looked pretty incredible. then I watched a few more of their games (and saw how atrocious Richmond is on defense) and am now very at ease with them. I don't know that it's possible to play better than we did against them last time (other than the interception), but they have almost no chance of beating us. I hope we play them again. tired of all the Soft Houston excuses from last time, anyway.

(10-30-2017 10:31 AM)Wear Purple Wrote:  On the flip side, North Dakota State's schedule now gets very interesting. Their final 3 are...

N-4 at South Dakota State (6-2/3-2), 3pm ESPN-3
N-11 home vs South Dakota (7-1/4-1), 3:30pm ESPN-3
N-18 at Illinois State (6-2/4-1), 1pm ESPN-3

I think the only team that could potentially beat them is Illinois State. I don't trust the other two to stop NDSU on the ground. USD has good rushing defense stats, but Illinois State ran all over them. I think they could only win a shootout against the Bison. regardless, one loss will still get them the #2 seed so we'll need them to lose in the playoffs. I'm not scared to play them again, I just want Frisco tickets and doubt I'll be able to get them if we're playing them.

Outside of the CAA and MVFC, the most impressive and dangerous team I've seen this season (and one that few seem to be talking about) is Jacksonville State. A lot of speed. Very good running back, very good linebackers, and good cover guys.

Looks like NDSU has lost starting RB Lance Dunn with a torn labrum, so that would definitely impact their offense going forward.

(10-30-2017 02:31 PM)JMUSteeler Wrote:  Looks like NDSU has lost starting RB Lance Dunn with a torn labrum, so that would definitely impact their offense going forward.

He was averaging a ridiculous 7.9 ypc. The other back is averaging 5.1 ypc. Their season yardage total was about tit for tat. It looks like they were evenly carrying the rushing load. They don't have another rusher in the top 200 outside of their QB.

Keep on the radar that the FCS Committee will release their first set of committee rankings this Thursday 11/2 at halftime of the ESPNU game. They will release another set of rankings next Thursday 11/9 as well.

(10-30-2017 10:20 AM)Potomac Wrote:  Columbia lost to Yale this weekend. They're no longer undefeated.

Thank you (and to Harrisonburger)! Correction has been made.