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NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
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Post: #131
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(11-18-2017 04:37 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  
(11-04-2017 10:34 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  If the following occurs:

9-1 Memphis beats 3-8 ECU in Memphis on 11/25

Then the American title game will be a "Play In" game for the NY6 bowl.

Futher, the UCF/USF game on 11/24 will be a "semifinal" game for a NY6 bid.

Updated.

Combined, UCF, USF and Memphis are 1-1 against each other, and 27-1 against the rest of college football.

No other conference in college football can say their top 3 teams only have 1 loss against teams outside that top troika.

10-0 UCF plays 9-1 USF on ABC next Friday to determine the American East.

Memphis has clinched the American West, and will finish 10-1 assuming they beat hapless ECU in the Tigers' home finale.

The committee currently ranks UCF and Memphis as the top two rated teams outside the P5. If either one of them goes 2-0 from here to finish the regular season, then Boise/MWC champ will not pass the American champ and the AAC will get the NY6 bid.

And if USF beats two ranked teams back to back in UCF and Memphis to win the American and finish 11-1, they will surpass Boise/MWC champ.

Committee likes Boise and isn't enthused about USF. No guarantee if UCF loses.
Yesterday 12:30 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #132
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(Yesterday 12:30 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(11-18-2017 04:37 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  
(11-04-2017 10:34 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  If the following occurs:

9-1 Memphis beats 3-8 ECU in Memphis on 11/25

Then the American title game will be a "Play In" game for the NY6 bowl.

Futher, the UCF/USF game on 11/24 will be a "semifinal" game for a NY6 bid.

Updated.

Combined, UCF, USF and Memphis are 1-1 against each other, and 27-1 against the rest of college football.

No other conference in college football can say their top 3 teams only have 1 loss against teams outside that top troika.

10-0 UCF plays 9-1 USF on ABC next Friday to determine the American East.

Memphis has clinched the American West, and will finish 10-1 assuming they beat hapless ECU in the Tigers' home finale.

The committee currently ranks UCF and Memphis as the top two rated teams outside the P5. If either one of them goes 2-0 from here to finish the regular season, then Boise/MWC champ will not pass the American champ and the AAC will get the NY6 bid.

And if USF beats two ranked teams back to back in UCF and Memphis to win the American and finish 11-1, they will surpass Boise/MWC champ.

Committee likes Boise and isn't enthused about USF. No guarantee if UCF loses.

We have no clue where USF is. VERY possible they were #26. If they are in this week- it's game over. Because wins over top 15 UCF and top 20 Memphis will blow the doors off of what would then be an 8-5 Fresno St team(that Boise will have to beat twice).
Yesterday 12:41 PM
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orangefan Offline
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Post: #133
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(Yesterday 12:30 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(11-18-2017 04:37 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  
(11-04-2017 10:34 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  If the following occurs:

9-1 Memphis beats 3-8 ECU in Memphis on 11/25

Then the American title game will be a "Play In" game for the NY6 bowl.

Futher, the UCF/USF game on 11/24 will be a "semifinal" game for a NY6 bid.

Updated.

Combined, UCF, USF and Memphis are 1-1 against each other, and 27-1 against the rest of college football.

No other conference in college football can say their top 3 teams only have 1 loss against teams outside that top troika.

10-0 UCF plays 9-1 USF on ABC next Friday to determine the American East.

Memphis has clinched the American West, and will finish 10-1 assuming they beat hapless ECU in the Tigers' home finale.

The committee currently ranks UCF and Memphis as the top two rated teams outside the P5. If either one of them goes 2-0 from here to finish the regular season, then Boise/MWC champ will not pass the American champ and the AAC will get the NY6 bid.

And if USF beats two ranked teams back to back in UCF and Memphis to win the American and finish 11-1, they will surpass Boise/MWC champ.

Committee likes Boise and isn't enthused about USF. No guarantee if UCF loses.

If USF defeats UCF and Memphis it will have two quality wins added to its resume. The committee looks at who you've already played, not who you're going to play, so those wins would improve the committee's evaluation of USF quite a bit.
Yesterday 12:42 PM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #134
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
The only real hope for the AAC haters rests on ECU beating Memphis, so pretty much no hope.
Yesterday 01:26 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #135
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
Its worth noting that the CFP committee got another data point for defining the relative strength of the AAC. Turns out #3 Notre Dame playing at home is a whopping 7 points better than Navy who is just 4-3 in AAC play (6-4 overall). Not that I expect the anti G5 biased crooked CFP to recognize it. Maybe...a real long shot here...UCF moves up one...but probably not due to the "eye test" and whatever this weeks made up "metric of the week" they can use to discount any G5 accomplishment.
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 01:45 PM by Attackcoog.)
Yesterday 01:41 PM
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CougarRed Offline
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Post: #136
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(Yesterday 12:30 PM)bullet Wrote:  Committee likes Boise and isn't enthused about USF. No guarantee if UCF loses.

I ran a simulation on Colley Matrix. Colley currently ranks Boise 19 and USF 29. It has UCF and Memphis ahead of Boise. So a decent proxy for the playoff committee.

Assuming Memphis beats ECU, Boise beats Fresno, USF beats UCF, Boise beats Fresno again, and USF beats Memphis . . .

Boise finishes at 14 and USF finishes at 15.

However, since:

1. The American is so much better than the MWC this year
2. USF has 1 loss compared to Boise having 2 losses
3. The Coaches already rank USF ahead of Boise

There is no chance the committee would choose Boise.
Yesterday 02:14 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #137
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(Yesterday 12:30 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(11-18-2017 04:37 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  
(11-04-2017 10:34 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  If the following occurs:

9-1 Memphis beats 3-8 ECU in Memphis on 11/25

Then the American title game will be a "Play In" game for the NY6 bowl.

Futher, the UCF/USF game on 11/24 will be a "semifinal" game for a NY6 bid.

Updated.

Combined, UCF, USF and Memphis are 1-1 against each other, and 27-1 against the rest of college football.

No other conference in college football can say their top 3 teams only have 1 loss against teams outside that top troika.

10-0 UCF plays 9-1 USF on ABC next Friday to determine the American East.

Memphis has clinched the American West, and will finish 10-1 assuming they beat hapless ECU in the Tigers' home finale.

The committee currently ranks UCF and Memphis as the top two rated teams outside the P5. If either one of them goes 2-0 from here to finish the regular season, then Boise/MWC champ will not pass the American champ and the AAC will get the NY6 bid.

And if USF beats two ranked teams back to back in UCF and Memphis to win the American and finish 11-1, they will surpass Boise/MWC champ.

Committee likes Boise and isn't enthused about USF. No guarantee if UCF loses.

They like them better right now. After 2 back to back wins over top 25 teams, they will like USF far better than Boise.
Yesterday 02:35 PM
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HawaiiMongoose Offline
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Post: #138
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
I can't imagine a realistic set of circumstances that would result in an outcome other than the AAC champ landing the Access Bowl berth.

The fact is that the AAC has had a great season and so I expect them to get rewarded for it. I also hope the AAC has another great season next year, and that the MWC matches them or does even better. I want to see more G5 wins against P5 programs, period.
Yesterday 02:59 PM
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