(11-09-2017 02:21 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(11-09-2017 01:40 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-09-2017 11:18 AM)YNot Wrote:  

(11-07-2017 02:00 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(11-07-2017 01:15 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  They'd barely play those schools in an 8 team division.

Presuming BYU stays independent and the AAC added Colorado St, Air Force, Boise St (fb), and San Diego St (fb) - the West division would likely be: San Diego St, Boise St, Colorado St, Air Force, Navy, Tulsa, SMU, Houston. That means Boise St would play Tulane, Memphis, Central Florida, South Florida, East Carolina, Cincinnati, Temple, and Connecticut once every four years.

I'd like to point out that BYU had a series with UConn in '14-'15. Boise St. and UConn have a '14/'18 series. Within the last 3-4 years, BYU has also played series with UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, and ECU. BYU has *future* series scheduled with USF and ECU; Boise St. has a future series with Cincinnati.

This suggest that BYU and Boise St. actually do want to play some of the AAC East schools.

I won't challenge a BYU fan about what BYU wants, but I'd say that generally speaking, being willing to do a home-and-home with a school doesn't necessarily mean you want them in your conference, playing them every year.

E.g., Miami played USF five straight years, from 2009-2013, but as a Bulls fan i never fancied that this meant they wanted us in the ACC. It was what it was, an OOC game series.

I do not think BYU wants to play UConn or USF every year. But, as pointed out in this thread, BYU would only play those schools occasionally. And, BYU clearly wants occasional games in every region of the country and has shown that it is willing to play AAC opponents on a home-and-home basis.

This point refutes the argument that BYU and Boise St. don't really want games v. Temple, Memphis, USF, Tulsa, and UConn...not to prove that BYU and Boise St. would want to play all of those schools every year.

Really, i threw in the "playing them every year" line as an afterthought, didn't attach much significance to it at all, as it didn't matter to my point, which was i never thought that because Miami was willing to play us OOC for 5 straight years that this meant they wanted us in the ACC, whether the ACC schedule would have them playing us every year or every four years or whatever.

But you seemed to latch on to that. Sounds like you'd like to see BYU in an expanded AAC? Does the rest of the BYU community want that?

West coast schools will not allow an east coast school in their division. The only thing I can think of is the best 24 teams with 4 divisions as pods with 6 schools in each.

west coast AAC:
Boise State
BYU
San Diego State
Fresno State
Air Force
Eastern Washington

Central:
Houston
SMU
Tulane
Tulsa
Wichita State
North Dakota State
Navy

Southeast:
UCF
USF
East Carolina
Southern Mississippi
Memphis
UAB or Old Dominion

Northeast:
Army
Cincinnati
Toledo
UConn.
Temple
UMass.


I could throw in Northern Illinois and Missouri State as 2 schools that could work out as well.
Rice, UTSA, Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State, Marshall, Arkansas State and Georgia Southern could be expansion teams in case the Big 12 raids the AAc.

(11-09-2017 02:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think the big question with BYU is what happens with their deal with ESPN. I could easily see ESPN pushing them into the AAC.

Yep. As the guy from Boston College famously said about the ACC expansion that destroyed the Big East, “ESPN told us what to do.”

(11-09-2017 07:11 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  West coast schools will not allow an east coast school in their division. The only thing I can think of is the best 24 teams with 4 divisions as pods with 6 schools in each.

west coast AAC:
Boise State
BYU
San Diego State
Fresno State
Air Force
Eastern Washington

Central:
Houston
SMU
Tulane
Tulsa
Wichita State
North Dakota State
Navy

Southeast:
UCF
USF
East Carolina
Southern Mississippi
Memphis
UAB or Old Dominion

Northeast:
Army
Cincinnati
Toledo
UConn.
Temple
UMass.


I could throw in Northern Illinois and Missouri State as 2 schools that could work out as well.
Rice, UTSA, Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State, Marshall, Arkansas State and Georgia Southern could be expansion teams in case the Big 12 raids the AAc.

Will never happen like that, way too big and cumbersome plus too many mouths to feed. I think 14, maybe 16is the max any conference will go.


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(11-09-2017 09:19 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  

(11-09-2017 07:11 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  West coast schools will not allow an east coast school in their division. The only thing I can think of is the best 24 teams with 4 divisions as pods with 6 schools in each.

west coast AAC:
Boise State
BYU
San Diego State
Fresno State
Air Force
Eastern Washington

Central:
Houston
SMU
Tulane
Tulsa
Wichita State
North Dakota State
Navy

Southeast:
UCF
USF
East Carolina
Southern Mississippi
Memphis
UAB or Old Dominion

Northeast:
Army
Cincinnati
Toledo
UConn.
Temple
UMass.


I could throw in Northern Illinois and Missouri State as 2 schools that could work out as well.
Rice, UTSA, Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State, Marshall, Arkansas State and Georgia Southern could be expansion teams in case the Big 12 raids the AAc.

Will never happen like that, way too big and cumbersome plus too many mouths to feed. I think 14, maybe 16is the max any conference will go.


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Well, you think about it, it would eliminate the other four G5 conferences from the picture.

1BYU
2Air Force
3Houston
4SMU
5Tulane
6Tulsa
7aWichita State olympics
7bNavy Football
8UCF
9USF
10East Carolina
11Memphis
12Army
13Cincinnati
14UConn.
15Temple
16. Spare (Colorado/Aztecs/USM/big12leftovr/NIU)

(11-10-2017 10:20 AM)Starfox207 Wrote:  1BYU
2Air Force
3Houston
4SMU
5Tulane
6Tulsa
7aWichita State olympics
7bNavy Football
8UCF
9USF
10East Carolina
11Memphis
12Army
13Cincinnati
14UConn.
15Temple
16NIU

FTFY

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(11-09-2017 04:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-09-2017 02:21 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(11-09-2017 01:40 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-09-2017 11:18 AM)YNot Wrote:  

(11-07-2017 02:00 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Presuming BYU stays independent and the AAC added Colorado St, Air Force, Boise St (fb), and San Diego St (fb) - the West division would likely be: San Diego St, Boise St, Colorado St, Air Force, Navy, Tulsa, SMU, Houston. That means Boise St would play Tulane, Memphis, Central Florida, South Florida, East Carolina, Cincinnati, Temple, and Connecticut once every four years.

I'd like to point out that BYU had a series with UConn in '14-'15. Boise St. and UConn have a '14/'18 series. Within the last 3-4 years, BYU has also played series with UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, and ECU. BYU has *future* series scheduled with USF and ECU; Boise St. has a future series with Cincinnati.

This suggest that BYU and Boise St. actually do want to play some of the AAC East schools.

I won't challenge a BYU fan about what BYU wants, but I'd say that generally speaking, being willing to do a home-and-home with a school doesn't necessarily mean you want them in your conference, playing them every year.

E.g., Miami played USF five straight years, from 2009-2013, but as a Bulls fan i never fancied that this meant they wanted us in the ACC. It was what it was, an OOC game series.

I do not think BYU wants to play UConn or USF every year. But, as pointed out in this thread, BYU would only play those schools occasionally. And, BYU clearly wants occasional games in every region of the country and has shown that it is willing to play AAC opponents on a home-and-home basis.

This point refutes the argument that BYU and Boise St. don't really want games v. Temple, Memphis, USF, Tulsa, and UConn...not to prove that BYU and Boise St. would want to play all of those schools every year.

Really, i threw in the "playing them every year" line as an afterthought, didn't attach much significance to it at all, as it didn't matter to my point, which was i never thought that because Miami was willing to play us OOC for 5 straight years that this meant they wanted us in the ACC, whether the ACC schedule would have them playing us every year or every four years or whatever.

But you seemed to latch on to that. Sounds like you'd like to see BYU in an expanded AAC? Does the rest of the BYU community want that?

We know that Boise and SDSU wanted to be part of the AAC, as long as the money is there and the Olympic sports issue can be worked out. We also know that BYU and Air Force at least considered the football only concept - but both declined. For BYU, despite the decline to become part of the AAC, what followed was a "quasi-affiliation" (as termed by the AAC commissioner and BYU AD), which included several home-and-home series with AAC schools and the Miami Beach Bowl affiliation.

I would still like to see BYU in an expanded AAC for all sports, if the right mix of western teams come along; including Boise, SDSU, and Gonzaga. I have promoted this since at least 2014.

The BYU community is warming up to the concept. Many fans are getting restless and pining for conference membership. A minority call for BYU back to the MWC, but the vast majority is against that. A substantial number of fans would at least seriously consider a move to the AAC as long as it included other western schools as well.

But, for now there is too much invested into independence to make an immediate jump to a non-P5 conference feasible within the next 2 or 3 years. Most future game contracts have an out if BYU joins a P5 conference, but not if BYU were to join a non-P5 conference - which could mean substantial contractual payouts to break those game contracts. (Although, I think BYU could focus on quality OOC games and then reschedule some of the existing contracts to future seasons such that the number of contractual payouts would be minimal, if any).

I really do think the AAC could lure BYU to the conference for all sports (for 2020 or 2021 season), if they focus on the upgrade for BYU basketball. SDSU was one of BYU's primary basketball rivals in the MWC. If BYU saw an option that included SDSU and Boise and at least one other western Olympic sports member, the opportunity to play in a power basketball conference (which the AAC would be - probably already is) would be too great to pass up. To get Gonzaga involved in the AAC western expansion for Olympic sports would seal the deal.

(11-04-2017 10:34 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  If the following occurs:

9-1 Memphis beats 3-8 ECU in Memphis on 11/25

Then the American title game will be a "Play In" game for the NY6 bowl.

Futher, the UCF/USF game on 11/24 will be a "semifinal" game for a NY6 bid.

Updated.

Combined, UCF, USF and Memphis are 1-1 against each other, and 27-1 against the rest of college football.

No other conference in college football can say their top 3 teams only have 1 loss against teams outside that top troika.

10-0 UCF plays 9-1 USF on ABC next Friday to determine the American East.

Memphis has clinched the American West, and will finish 10-1 assuming they beat hapless ECU in the Tigers' home finale.

The committee currently ranks UCF and Memphis as the top two rated teams outside the P5. If either one of them goes 2-0 from here to finish the regular season, then Boise/MWC champ will not pass the American champ and the AAC will get the NY6 bid.

And if USF beats two ranked teams back to back in UCF and Memphis to win the American and finish 11-1, they will surpass Boise/MWC champ.

And the gravy is that Fresno is leading in the 4th- putting them as Western division champs- taking out San Diego St as any option for the MWC. So for Boise they would have to beat Fresno in back to back weeks and making Fresno a 5 loss team. not good for the MWC. It's 99% over right now.

(11-18-2017 04:37 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(11-04-2017 10:34 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  If the following occurs:

9-1 Memphis beats 3-8 ECU in Memphis on 11/25

Then the American title game will be a "Play In" game for the NY6 bowl.

Futher, the UCF/USF game on 11/24 will be a "semifinal" game for a NY6 bid.

Updated.

Combined, UCF, USF and Memphis are 1-1 against each other, and 27-1 against the rest of college football.

No other conference in college football can say their top 3 teams only have 1 loss against teams outside that top troika.

10-0 UCF plays 9-1 USF on ABC next Friday to determine the American East.

Memphis has clinched the American West, and will finish 10-1 assuming they beat hapless ECU in the Tigers' home finale.

The committee currently ranks UCF and Memphis as the top two rated teams outside the P5. If either one of them goes 2-0 from here to finish the regular season, then Boise/MWC champ will not pass the American champ and the AAC will get the NY6 bid.

And if USF beats two ranked teams back to back in UCF and Memphis to win the American and finish 11-1, they will surpass Boise/MWC champ.

Committee likes Boise and isn't enthused about USF. No guarantee if UCF loses.

(11-19-2017 12:30 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-18-2017 04:37 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(11-04-2017 10:34 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  If the following occurs:

9-1 Memphis beats 3-8 ECU in Memphis on 11/25

Then the American title game will be a "Play In" game for the NY6 bowl.

Futher, the UCF/USF game on 11/24 will be a "semifinal" game for a NY6 bid.

Updated.

Combined, UCF, USF and Memphis are 1-1 against each other, and 27-1 against the rest of college football.

No other conference in college football can say their top 3 teams only have 1 loss against teams outside that top troika.

10-0 UCF plays 9-1 USF on ABC next Friday to determine the American East.

Memphis has clinched the American West, and will finish 10-1 assuming they beat hapless ECU in the Tigers' home finale.

The committee currently ranks UCF and Memphis as the top two rated teams outside the P5. If either one of them goes 2-0 from here to finish the regular season, then Boise/MWC champ will not pass the American champ and the AAC will get the NY6 bid.

And if USF beats two ranked teams back to back in UCF and Memphis to win the American and finish 11-1, they will surpass Boise/MWC champ.

Committee likes Boise and isn't enthused about USF. No guarantee if UCF loses.

We have no clue where USF is. VERY possible they were #26. If they are in this week- it's game over. Because wins over top 15 UCF and top 20 Memphis will blow the doors off of what would then be an 8-5 Fresno St team(that Boise will have to beat twice).

(11-19-2017 12:30 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-18-2017 04:37 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(11-04-2017 10:34 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  If the following occurs:

9-1 Memphis beats 3-8 ECU in Memphis on 11/25

Then the American title game will be a "Play In" game for the NY6 bowl.

Futher, the UCF/USF game on 11/24 will be a "semifinal" game for a NY6 bid.

Updated.

Combined, UCF, USF and Memphis are 1-1 against each other, and 27-1 against the rest of college football.

No other conference in college football can say their top 3 teams only have 1 loss against teams outside that top troika.

10-0 UCF plays 9-1 USF on ABC next Friday to determine the American East.

Memphis has clinched the American West, and will finish 10-1 assuming they beat hapless ECU in the Tigers' home finale.

The committee currently ranks UCF and Memphis as the top two rated teams outside the P5. If either one of them goes 2-0 from here to finish the regular season, then Boise/MWC champ will not pass the American champ and the AAC will get the NY6 bid.

And if USF beats two ranked teams back to back in UCF and Memphis to win the American and finish 11-1, they will surpass Boise/MWC champ.

Committee likes Boise and isn't enthused about USF. No guarantee if UCF loses.

If USF defeats UCF and Memphis it will have two quality wins added to its resume. The committee looks at who you've already played, not who you're going to play, so those wins would improve the committee's evaluation of USF quite a bit.

The only real hope for the AAC haters rests on ECU beating Memphis, so pretty much no hope.

Its worth noting that the CFP committee got another data point for defining the relative strength of the AAC. Turns out #3 Notre Dame playing at home is a whopping 7 points better than Navy who is just 4-3 in AAC play (6-4 overall). Not that I expect the anti G5 biased crooked CFP to recognize it. Maybe...a real long shot here...UCF moves up one...but probably not due to the "eye test" and whatever this weeks made up "metric of the week" they can use to discount any G5 accomplishment.

(11-19-2017 12:30 PM)bullet Wrote:  Committee likes Boise and isn't enthused about USF. No guarantee if UCF loses.

I ran a simulation on Colley Matrix. Colley currently ranks Boise 19 and USF 29. It has UCF and Memphis ahead of Boise. So a decent proxy for the playoff committee.

Assuming Memphis beats ECU, Boise beats Fresno, USF beats UCF, Boise beats Fresno again, and USF beats Memphis . . .

Boise finishes at 14 and USF finishes at 15.

However, since:

1. The American is so much better than the MWC this year
2. USF has 1 loss compared to Boise having 2 losses
3. The Coaches already rank USF ahead of Boise

There is no chance the committee would choose Boise.

(11-19-2017 12:30 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-18-2017 04:37 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(11-04-2017 10:34 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  If the following occurs:

9-1 Memphis beats 3-8 ECU in Memphis on 11/25

Then the American title game will be a "Play In" game for the NY6 bowl.

Futher, the UCF/USF game on 11/24 will be a "semifinal" game for a NY6 bid.

Updated.

Combined, UCF, USF and Memphis are 1-1 against each other, and 27-1 against the rest of college football.

No other conference in college football can say their top 3 teams only have 1 loss against teams outside that top troika.

10-0 UCF plays 9-1 USF on ABC next Friday to determine the American East.

Memphis has clinched the American West, and will finish 10-1 assuming they beat hapless ECU in the Tigers' home finale.

The committee currently ranks UCF and Memphis as the top two rated teams outside the P5. If either one of them goes 2-0 from here to finish the regular season, then Boise/MWC champ will not pass the American champ and the AAC will get the NY6 bid.

And if USF beats two ranked teams back to back in UCF and Memphis to win the American and finish 11-1, they will surpass Boise/MWC champ.

Committee likes Boise and isn't enthused about USF. No guarantee if UCF loses.

They like them better right now. After 2 back to back wins over top 25 teams, they will like USF far better than Boise.

I can't imagine a realistic set of circumstances that would result in an outcome other than the AAC champ landing the Access Bowl berth.

The fact is that the AAC has had a great season and so I expect them to get rewarded for it. I also hope the AAC has another great season next year, and that the MWC matches them or does even better. I want to see more G5 wins against P5 programs, period.

I think at this time Boise is a long shot, but Boise is a well known national brand and the AAC schools lag behind in this area. Boise draws ratings, and that counts for something. But for this to come into play UCF must lose a game.


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well, unless there are 2 major upsets- the AAC has the spot clinched.

ECU/Memphis- 95.7% chance Memphis wins
Memphis/UCF- 26.1% chance Memphis wins

so right now a 1.12% chance that the scenario would happen. oh and Boise has to win out- which is only a 47.3% chance. So a 0.53% chance right now that the AAC doesn't get the spot.