(10-24-2017 10:06 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: (10-24-2017 09:54 AM)Antarius Wrote: (10-24-2017 09:27 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: If it has no purpose, would we be better off just lining up and running the play, a la Jess Neely before he was a ghost?
Same question was posed to the fake FG attempt. Wouldn't we just be better off lining up and running a play?
I had similar thoughts. Would we have been better off at 20-10? We would still need two scores. 20-14 makes it a one score game.
I remember a few years back when one of the complaints about Bailiff was that he always took the "safe' play. Well, in this game he didn't, and maybe the results show why many coaches take the safe play.
But wait....
KICKING the FG would have been the 'safe' play.
He took a risk.
The question was, did he take a 'smart' risk. As a poker player (I am not one) you understand the difference between going all-in on the flop with only two players and pair of aces versus king jack non-suited. One is a calculated risk with a
relatively high probability of success and the other is throwing caution to the wind and hoping to get lucky.
Running a real play would have been a calculated risk. Maybe its inc, in which case you missed the FG. Maybe they intercept it and you just pinned them, or they get it 'here'. Maybe you complete it.
4th and <2 early in the game on their side of the field, we punted. I would have faked that punt.
1) if you run the real offense they stack the line and dare you to throw, which we probably wouldn't do. Can we make 2 yards against goal-line defense?
2) they probably aren't expecting a fake that early and 2 yards is 'doable'. Not only does it have a relatively high upside, but it also sets the table for the rest of the game where they can't set up returns because they're playing 'safe'.
3) the highest probability after a punt is their ball at the 20. Giving them the ball at the 45 is 'worse', but making the first down and keeping the drive alive when offense has struggled is vastly better. It was a good punt as I recall and that is fine, but it put them at the 9... but not so deep that they can't run plays or get off a punt if necessary.