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Is a Big Ten raid on the Pac 12 feasible?
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Is a Big Ten raid on the Pac 12 feasible?
(11-09-2017 04:04 PM)XLance Wrote:  http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/05/18/co...ectacular/

The PAC not the Big 12 seems to be in the most trouble.


2016 (actual)

SEC: $40.5 million
Big Ten: $34.8 million
Pac-12: $28.7 million
Big 12: $28.45 million
(The ACC has not reported FY16.)

2017 (projected)

SEC: $44 million
Big Ten: $38 million
Big 12: $34 million (per commissioner Bob Bowlsby)
Pac-12: $29.5 million

2018 (projected)

SEC: $45+ million
Big Ten: $45 million (new Tier 1 deal)
Big 12: $37.5 million
Pac-12: $32.5 million

This is why Oklahoma will go to the B1G or SEC. ... At that point the B12 is toast.

The mechanics of it are obvious, if it's the SEC then OK State goes with them, and KU is off to the B1G with or without OU. The rump of the B12 wont command the same level of teir-1 and teir-2 TV contracts. So Texas will go too.

There is no bail for the Pac-12 schools, and they would be throwing away equity and rivalries. All the scenarios of the P12 picking off B12 is predicated on OU going to the SEC or B1G. That happens first. Then look at the relative strengths.
11-10-2017 05:18 AM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Is a Big Ten raid on the Pac 12 feasible?
(11-10-2017 05:18 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  This is why Oklahoma will go to the B1G or SEC. ... At that point the B12 is toast.

The mechanics of it are obvious, if it's the SEC then OK State goes with them, and KU is off to the B1G with or without OU. The rump of the B12 wont command the same level of teir-1 and teir-2 TV contracts. So Texas will go too.

There is no bail for the Pac-12 schools, and they would be throwing away equity and rivalries. All the scenarios of the P12 picking off B12 is predicated on OU going to the SEC or B1G. That happens first. Then look at the relative strengths.

Sounds like the Pac-12's ONLY play is to be proactive and invite OU - with or without Texas (but leave them a seat). Maybe if the invite OU and Kansas they can come back for Texas and one other (Iowa State?)
11-14-2017 09:38 AM
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BadgerMJ Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Is a Big Ten raid on the Pac 12 feasible?
(11-14-2017 09:38 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(11-10-2017 05:18 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  This is why Oklahoma will go to the B1G or SEC. ... At that point the B12 is toast.

The mechanics of it are obvious, if it's the SEC then OK State goes with them, and KU is off to the B1G with or without OU. The rump of the B12 wont command the same level of teir-1 and teir-2 TV contracts. So Texas will go too.

There is no bail for the Pac-12 schools, and they would be throwing away equity and rivalries. All the scenarios of the P12 picking off B12 is predicated on OU going to the SEC or B1G. That happens first. Then look at the relative strengths.

Sounds like the Pac-12's ONLY play is to be proactive and invite OU - with or without Texas (but leave them a seat). Maybe if the invite OU and Kansas they can come back for Texas and one other (Iowa State?)

While that might be their only option, I can't help but think why would OU, KS, or TX leave the XII to join a league that would pay them less than they're currently making? Especially when you take into consideration that the SEC & B1G (and maybe even the ACC with TX) will be courting them.

Depending on how the next round of TV/Media contracts go, their only option might be to form some sort of alliance with the either the XII or the B1G. Adding the XII to their network plus scheduling or share programming and scheduling with the B1G.
11-14-2017 10:57 AM
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clpp01 Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Is a Big Ten raid on the Pac 12 feasible?
(11-14-2017 10:57 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  While that might be their only option, I can't help but think why would OU, KS, or TX leave the XII to join a league that would pay them less than they're currently making? Especially when you take into consideration that the SEC & B1G (and maybe even the ACC with TX) will be courting them.

Depending on how the next round of TV/Media contracts go, their only option might be to form some sort of alliance with the either the XII or the B1G. Adding the XII to their network plus scheduling or share programming and scheduling with the B1G.

A Pac-16 with Texas, Oklahoma & Kansas would make more then what either of the Big12 or Pac-12 are generating.

If we were working under the assumption that they did go to the Pac and not the B1G or SEC, IMO the most likely reason that it happened that way would be because the Pac12 was willing to accept Texas & OU coming in as a group of schools allowing their "little brothers" to come with them where as the B1G/SEC would only want them individually.
11-14-2017 07:30 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Is a Big Ten raid on the Pac 12 feasible?
(11-14-2017 10:57 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-14-2017 09:38 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(11-10-2017 05:18 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  This is why Oklahoma will go to the B1G or SEC. ... At that point the B12 is toast.

The mechanics of it are obvious, if it's the SEC then OK State goes with them, and KU is off to the B1G with or without OU. The rump of the B12 wont command the same level of teir-1 and teir-2 TV contracts. So Texas will go too.

There is no bail for the Pac-12 schools, and they would be throwing away equity and rivalries. All the scenarios of the P12 picking off B12 is predicated on OU going to the SEC or B1G. That happens first. Then look at the relative strengths.

Sounds like the Pac-12's ONLY play is to be proactive and invite OU - with or without Texas (but leave them a seat). Maybe if the invite OU and Kansas they can come back for Texas and one other (Iowa State?)

While that might be their only option, I can't help but think why would OU, KS, or TX leave the XII to join a league that would pay them less than they're currently making? Especially when you take into consideration that the SEC & B1G (and maybe even the ACC with TX) will be courting them.

Depending on how the next round of TV/Media contracts go, their only option might be to form some sort of alliance with the either the XII or the B1G. Adding the XII to their network plus scheduling or share programming and scheduling with the B1G.

It's likely the the Big 12 won't be paying much of anything after 2025.
Realistically, it's the networks that control the Big 12's destiny. If the networks want to keep the Big 12 together they can offer a somewhat competitive TV package, it they don't, they won't.
11-15-2017 08:39 AM
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BadgerMJ Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Is a Big Ten raid on the Pac 12 feasible?
(11-15-2017 08:39 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(11-14-2017 10:57 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-14-2017 09:38 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(11-10-2017 05:18 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  This is why Oklahoma will go to the B1G or SEC. ... At that point the B12 is toast.

The mechanics of it are obvious, if it's the SEC then OK State goes with them, and KU is off to the B1G with or without OU. The rump of the B12 wont command the same level of teir-1 and teir-2 TV contracts. So Texas will go too.

There is no bail for the Pac-12 schools, and they would be throwing away equity and rivalries. All the scenarios of the P12 picking off B12 is predicated on OU going to the SEC or B1G. That happens first. Then look at the relative strengths.

Sounds like the Pac-12's ONLY play is to be proactive and invite OU - with or without Texas (but leave them a seat). Maybe if the invite OU and Kansas they can come back for Texas and one other (Iowa State?)

While that might be their only option, I can't help but think why would OU, KS, or TX leave the XII to join a league that would pay them less than they're currently making? Especially when you take into consideration that the SEC & B1G (and maybe even the ACC with TX) will be courting them.

Depending on how the next round of TV/Media contracts go, their only option might be to form some sort of alliance with the either the XII or the B1G. Adding the XII to their network plus scheduling or share programming and scheduling with the B1G.

It's likely the the Big 12 won't be paying much of anything after 2025.
Realistically, it's the networks that control the Big 12's destiny. If the networks want to keep the Big 12 together they can offer a somewhat competitive TV package, it they don't, they won't.

I tend to agree with you.

Another thing to consider is that I don't see either ESPN or Fox starting a XII conference network. If anything, they'll "encourage" the schools they consider assets to realign with the conferences that currently have their own networks.

That's why I don't see the XII being long for this world. It would be cheaper for the networks to pay one of the other conference more to add those asset schools than it would to pay the XII and start their own network.
11-15-2017 08:48 AM
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