Lost in the shuffle as far as A-State was the fact that their front four on defense was suppose to the strongest position on the team, even stronger than the receivers.

For a variety of reasons--some legit and some just excuses for not being ready, that did not happen early on, and it had a profound negative effect on their defense.

The good news for A-State is they have found their Mojo.

What that means for the SBC teams left on their schedule is beating them just became a lot more difficult.

(10-22-2017 03:36 PM)trojanbrutha Wrote:  

(10-22-2017 01:15 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(10-22-2017 12:09 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(10-22-2017 11:54 AM)USAJag2011 Wrote:  

(10-22-2017 10:04 AM)riburn3 Wrote:  Against Troy and App St....and when they played Troy they didn’t get the beat down Georgia State just got.

My sources tell me Troy is beatable.

App hasn't looked great either.

I highly doubt Troy goes anything worse than 4-0 in their next games. USA had three advantages that no one else has: 1) rivalry game 2) USA has a knack for beating teams that are much better than they are 3) USA got us after our biggest win in program history.

I don't think South goes on a big run. They got their big win of the season and will not play that well the rest of the way.

Arkansas State will likely be favored over Troy but I don't think we see a repeat of last year.

Of course it won't be a straight repeat. We won't run the ball down your throat the last 2 quarters because we don't have the running game to get away with that this year.

And, I'll gladly thank y'all for that. I will say that this is the one on my calendar as must see tv...but there is a lot of football to be played. Until then...

Sent from my HTCD100LVWPP using Tapatalk

We are however, a tremendously better passing team than the team that came into Troy last year.

That game is going to come down whether or not are DL is healthy enough to put pressure on Silvers.

(10-22-2017 03:39 PM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  Lost in the shuffle as far as A-State was the fact that their front four on defense was suppose to the strongest position on the team, even stronger than the receivers.

For a variety of reasons__some legit and some just excuses for not being ready, that did not happen early on, and it had a profound negative effect on their defense.

The good news for A-State is they have found their Mojo.

What that means for the SBC teams left on their schedule is beating them just became a lot more difficult.

I will say this. Confidence is a big factor in college football. While I think it's too early to say what ARKST's offense is, they will bring a ton of confidence into our December matchup.

I had originally touted ARKST's offense and given a lot of credit to Hansen, and it's probably at least somewhat accurate, but I should pump the brakes on the praise train for the time being. After further research, it doesn't appear they've faced any defense better than SMU's and they are ranked 93rd in scoring defense.

Their three breakout games vs SBC opponents all rank in the bottom 8 in scoring defense. 123, 125, and 126. Troy is currently 15th in Vic Koenning's 3rd year. Nebraska's defense sits at 94th, SMU at 93, and Pine Bluff is a Savannah State level team.

They will get another defensive layup at NMSU, but will have their first real test against South Alabama (63rd in scoring defense) and then Troy at the end of the year. We will likely be in the Top 10 defensively by that time. The ARKST passing game is being helped by some really, really awful defenses. Troy has a very good secondary and a Top 10 rushing defense nationally. If Troy can shut down the run, we have the defensive backs to take them out of the game. Arkansas State is probably better than Troy right now, but I'm feeling a lot better about a possible upset.

I expect A-State will be as good on defense as they are on offense from here on, which means among the best in all of FBS.

Should have actually have been as good or better from the get go, because of the youth and inexperience of their OL. The totally unexpected issues with the front four on defense threw a monkey wrench into the works.

When this team finally starts clicking, and the scuttlebutt for a couple of weeks is they are getting close, they are going to impress people, on both sides of the ball.

Also worth noting that those that got the false impression they are not going to be a strong running team are also in for a rude awakening.

(10-22-2017 03:53 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(10-22-2017 03:39 PM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  Lost in the shuffle as far as A-State was the fact that their front four on defense was suppose to the strongest position on the team, even stronger than the receivers.

For a variety of reasons__some legit and some just excuses for not being ready, that did not happen early on, and it had a profound negative effect on their defense.

The good news for A-State is they have found their Mojo.

What that means for the SBC teams left on their schedule is beating them just became a lot more difficult.

I will say this. Confidence is a big factor in college football. While I think it's too early to say what ARKST's offense is, they will bring a ton of confidence into our December matchup.

I had originally touted ARKST's offense and given a lot of credit to Hansen, and it's probably at least somewhat accurate, but I should pump the brakes on the praise train for the time being. After further research, it doesn't appear they've faced any defense better than SMU's and they are ranked 93rd in scoring defense.

Their three breakout games vs SBC opponents all rank in the bottom 8 in scoring defense. 123, 125, and 126. Troy is currently 15th in Vic Koenning's 3rd year. Nebraska's defense sits at 94th, SMU at 93, and Pine Bluff is a Savannah State level team.

They will get another defensive layup at NMSU, but will have their first real test against South Alabama (63rd in scoring defense) and then Troy at the end of the year. We will likely be in the Top 10 defensively by that time. The ARKST passing game is being helped by some really, really awful defenses. Troy has a very good secondary and a Top 10 rushing defense nationally. If Troy can shut down the run, we have the defensive backs to take them out of the game. Arkansas State is probably better than Troy right now, but I'm feeling a lot better about a possible upset.

Of course, one could also argue that Troy has not faced an offense as strong as AState's either. NMSU might be the best offense you've seen to this point, and they also put up nearly 30 points on you guys. They just didn't have the defense to stop you.

We'll learn a lot about Arkansas State the next 2 games (@ NMSU, @ USA) Not sure we'll learn much more about Troy until December 2nd given the remaining schedule.

I'm sticking with my prediction that A-State will lose at least one SBC game-- my thinking was a road game, but the longer it takes the harder it will get.

While I said if GaSo did not get them probably no one would, that was just based on their tendency to be half-baked early on.

I do not see them losing a home game, and getting them late in the season and at their place is why I don't see them losing to Troy. Well that and the fact they really are the more talented team overall.

Depth is always a factor as the season progresses,especially on defense, and that is when having the best roster of talent (and they do) to cobble a 2-deep out of is a huge advantage. Their coaches think they are close to having a 3-deep at most spots on defense they can win with which is hard to do at any level.

Next Saturday worries me.

(10-22-2017 07:18 PM)sdcritter Wrote:  Next Saturday worries me.

Both South and NMSU worry me. NMSU's ability to put up points scares me, and the fact that South will have the best defense we've seen to this point causes problems as well.

Travel to Las Cruces is also a concern. If I remember correctly, we started very slow there two years ago.

Well there are no tangible reasons for my A-State losing to a SBC team prediction, but I'm sticking with it.

That out of the way, if you look at the tangibles one thing stands out-- NMSU is really not a very good team, so this game should not be close.

(10-22-2017 09:22 PM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  Well there are no tangible reasons for my A-State losing to a SBC team prediction, but I'm sticking with it.

That out of the way, if you look at the tangibles one thing stands out-- NMSU is really not a very good team, so this game should not be close.

We will see.

(10-22-2017 10:07 PM)NotANewbie Wrote:  

(10-22-2017 09:22 PM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  Well there are no tangible reasons for my A-State losing to a SBC team prediction, but I'm sticking with it.

That out of the way, if you look at the tangibles one thing stands out-- NMSU is really not a very good team, so this game should not be close.

We will see.

Well NMSU is not a bad team either, so I don't mean to imply they cannot beat them, especially at your place.

I'm just stepping out on the old "talent" limb again and saying the A-State coaches have finally cobbled a very good team out of the most talented roster of players in the SBC.

IMO they are now better than the two teams that beat them, but they lost to some pretty bad teams under Anderson, and NMSU is not a bad team at all.

I realize how frustrating it is trying to discuss their team, considering their habitually poor performance early in the season.

(10-22-2017 01:01 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(10-22-2017 12:54 PM)USAJag2011 Wrote:  

(10-22-2017 12:43 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(10-22-2017 12:20 PM)USAJag2011 Wrote:  

(10-22-2017 12:09 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  I highly doubt Troy goes anything worse than 4-0 in their next games. USA had three advantages that no one else has: 1) rivalry game 2) USA has a knack for beating teams that are much better than they are 3) USA got us after our biggest win in program history.

I don't think South goes on a big run. They got their big win of the season and will not play that well the rest of the way.

Arkansas State will likely be favored over Troy but I don't think we see a repeat of last year.

It’s not our “big win”, we’ve won 3 of the last 4, it’s just another win.

1. It was a rivalry game for Troy as well right?
2. Yes, we beat teams better than us. This you are correct about. I hear Troy did that the week before.
3. Your own coach said many times during your week and a half off that this was the most important game on the schedule, you guys didn’t overlook us because of the win. There were pep rallies to get pumped for this game. If your coach can’t grt your guys ready for this game, then we’ll......he has some issues.

Now for Troy’s advantages:
1. It was at home
2. Our excitement was at an all-time low
3. You were supposed to be the better team
4. You had extra time to let that win sink in and move on

My comment had nothing to do with Troy not being good, just that NMSU could have won. The point was that a 1-2 NMSU shouldn’t be ahead of better performing teams.

You've won two of the last four. The Idaho game is still a loss.

We can go back and forth all day, but we know how this show usually ends. USA gets up for their super bowl for Troy, gets the "W", and doesn't look like that team the rest of the season. Your fan excitement was at an all time low, but your team came in with their hair on fire, and Troy's field presence pregame and during the game was the complete opposite. It's one thing to not overlook a team, and another to not be focused We're building a track record of coming out flat after big wins.

Yes, I can blame that on Neal Brown as well. South always looks like they're amped up on energy drinks when they play us, and we don't ever come close to matching that intensity. And that's what I mean. It's very specific to our rivalry. It's cupcake city from here on out until we play Arkansas State in the finale and I don't see any of those four beating us. When we destroy Idaho we can come back to this thread.

You guys played a great game, but I wouldn't glean too much from that game.

I was referring to the USA/Troy game, we’ve won 3 of the last 4.

And those are still excuses not advantages.

The advantages USA had were:

1. More time than others to prepare for your defense
2. Our run defense was really good until last night
3. We were more prepared, not just energetic

Again, I never hinted that Troy would lose any of those not games, that is a moot point. My point was that NMSU shouldn’t be ahead of a few other teams. I just said Troy was beatable, and they are.

As for the excuses not advantages comment - there are no excuses for losing to USA, but they are excuses/factors/advantages, what have you, that won't be present the rest of the way, and that was my main point.

Troy is beatable, but the next guys won't get us coming off LSU. You're right, we weren't prepared, and there were several factors listed that played into the how the game played out that we could have and should have overcome, but we didn't. You can call them excuses if you'd like. We have clear heads going forward and the state of our team is much better, and for that reason we will be much tougher to beat.

As for NMSU, I originally had them 6th, and would put them tied for 4th with USA after seeing how well they've played. This weeks game vs ARKST will tell us a lot, but unfortunately that ARKST offense is on a roll and I don't see them pulling it out.

It took less than two weeks for time to draw its merciful veil.
The game against Troy, with a finally fully recovered Dallas Davis, was the first time USA has been close to full strength all year.
USA was obviously the better team. As strong as the Troy defense is, and I respect it very much, the USA defense did more to stifle Troy's offense than Troy's defense did to USA's. At least until the last quarter and half when USA more interested in running clock than getting yards and scoring points.

(10-21-2017 07:47 PM)USAJag2011 Wrote:  

(10-21-2017 07:45 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  How is NMSU behind ULM and GSU? Crazy!

Because they're 1-2....

I thought I would do a little speculation on where we are with respect to our conference mates by the end of the season. Using the FPI predictions this is what it looks like (the FPI Pred column is their prediction for remaining games).

Following is my thoughts on who might wind up in which bowl. The order is based on current conference standing.


School..................Current...FPI Pred....Final Pred.......Bowl
Appalachian State...5-2..........5-0............10-2..............Cure
Arkansas State.......4-2..........5-0............9-2................New Orleans . . . . FatFingerFumbleFixed
South Alabama.......3-4..........2-3............5-7
Troy.......................5-2..........4-1............9-3...............Dollar General
Georgia State..........3-3.........4-1............7-4................Camelia
Louisiana Monroe....3-4..........1-4............4-8
Louisiana...............3-4..........1-4............4-8
New Mexico State....3-4.........4-1............7-5................Arizona
Idaho.....................2-5.........1-4............3-9
Georgia Southern....0-6.........0-6............0-12
Texas State............1-6..........0-5...........1-11
Coastal Carolina......1-6..........2-3............3-9

There is a lot of football to be played, so we will see how accurate these turn out to be.

(10-23-2017 08:49 PM)NotANewbie Wrote:  

(10-21-2017 07:47 PM)USAJag2011 Wrote:  

(10-21-2017 07:45 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  How is NMSU behind ULM and GSU? Crazy!

Because they're 1-2....

I thought I would do a little speculation on where we are with respect to our conference mates by the end of the season. Using the FPI predictions this is what it looks like

Following is my thoughts on who might wind up in which bowl. The order is based on current conference standing.


School..................Current...FPI Pred......Final Pred.......Bowl
Appalachian State...5-2..........5-0............10-2..............Cure
Arkansas State.......3-2..........5-0............9-2................New Orleans
South Alabama.......3-4..........2-3............5-7
Troy.......................5-2..........4-1............9-3...............Dollar General
Georgia State..........3-3.........4-1............7-4................Camelia
Louisiana Monroe....3-4..........1-4............4-8
Louisiana...............3-4..........1-4............4-8
New Mexico State....3-4.........4-1............7-5................Arizona
Idaho.....................2-5.........1-4............3-9
Georgia Southern....0-6.........0-6............0-12
Texas State............1-6..........0-5...........1-11
Coastal Carolina......1-6..........2-3............3-9

There is a lot of football to be played, so we will see how accurate these turn out to be.

I could certainly live with that.

(10-23-2017 08:51 PM)troutbummike Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:49 PM)NotANewbie Wrote:  

(10-21-2017 07:47 PM)USAJag2011 Wrote:  

(10-21-2017 07:45 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  How is NMSU behind ULM and GSU? Crazy!

Because they're 1-2....

I thought I would do a little speculation on where we are with respect to our conference mates by the end of the season. Using the FPI predictions this is what it looks like

Following is my thoughts on who might wind up in which bowl. The order is based on current conference standing.




School..................Current...FPI Pred......Final Pred.......Bowl
Appalachian State...5-2..........5-0............10-2..............Cure
Arkansas State.......3-2..........5-0............9-2................New Orleans
South Alabama.......3-4..........2-3............5-7
Troy.......................5-2..........4-1............9-3...............Dollar General
Georgia State..........3-3.........4-1............7-4................Camelia
Louisiana Monroe....3-4..........1-4............4-8
Louisiana...............3-4..........1-4............4-8
New Mexico State....3-4.........4-1............7-5................Arizona
Idaho.....................2-5.........1-4............3-9
Georgia Southern....0-6.........0-6............0-12
Texas State............1-6..........0-5...........1-11
Coastal Carolina......1-6..........2-3............3-9

There is a lot of football to be played, so we will see how accurate these turn out to be.

I could certainly live with that.

A-State is better than 3-2, please check your math.

(10-23-2017 09:03 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:51 PM)troutbummike Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:49 PM)NotANewbie Wrote:  

(10-21-2017 07:47 PM)USAJag2011 Wrote:  

(10-21-2017 07:45 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  How is NMSU behind ULM and GSU? Crazy!

Because they're 1-2....

I thought I would do a little speculation on where we are with respect to our conference mates by the end of the season. Using the FPI predictions this is what it looks like

Following is my thoughts on who might wind up in which bowl. The order is based on current conference standing.




School..................Current...FPI Pred......Final Pred.......Bowl
Appalachian State...5-2..........5-0............10-2..............Cure
Arkansas State.......4-2..........5-0............9-2................New Orleans
South Alabama.......3-4..........2-3............5-7
Troy.......................5-2..........4-1............9-3...............Dollar General
Georgia State..........3-3.........4-1............7-4................Camelia
Louisiana Monroe....3-4..........1-4............4-8
Louisiana...............3-4..........1-4............4-8
New Mexico State....3-4.........4-1............7-5................Arizona
Idaho.....................2-5.........1-4............3-9
Georgia Southern....0-6.........0-6............0-12
Texas State............1-6..........0-5...........1-11
Coastal Carolina......1-6..........2-3............3-9

There is a lot of football to be played, so we will see how accurate these turn out to be.

I could certainly live with that.

A-State is better than 3-2, please check your math.

Sorry - fat fingers. The final was and is right and I fixed it here.

(10-21-2017 07:59 PM)GSUALUM17 Wrote:  

(10-21-2017 07:41 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  1) Ark State (3-0)
2) Troy (2-1)
3) App (4-0)
4) South Alabama (2-1)

---GAP---

5) Georgia State (2-1)
6) ULM (3-2)
6) NMSU (1-2)
6) ULL (2-2)
9) Idaho (1-2)
9) CCU (0-4)
11) TXST (0-3)
12) GS (0-2)

See I don't think the gap between USA and GSU is THAT wide. BOOK IT when we have our Thursday night game next week.

After my initial disgust, I looked over the team stats.
1st down- Troy 20 GSU 16
yards- Troy 450 GSU 300
turnover- Troy 1 GSU 1
Time of Possession- Troy 27mins GSU 33mins

This seems to prove that GSU played didn't finish drives in the redzone. Troy absolutely won the game dominantly, no arguments there. My respect to the Troy team. Troy players were absolute beasts. But if we didn't leave points on the field, it should've been 34-21 ish score...not 34-10.

Troy played a complete, disciplined, perfect football. GSU played uninspiring, flat, sloppy football. I don't think we played the best of our abilities (they believed in their 3-0 hype and played like asses). I think USA game will be different. Panthers will be hungry and chippy

see? what gap?

Troy fans invented the gap between South and Georgia State to explain their loss to South this year. Reality is some teams just have bad games, or really good games.

(10-26-2017 10:04 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Troy fans invented the gap between South and Georgia State to explain their loss to South this year. Reality is some teams just have bad games, or really good games.

I agree. Troy played poorly against USA. GSU played poorly against Troy. These things happen

Troy lost to USA, therefor, 3RD! Georgia State may be in line with Troy for the Week 9 Power Rankings.