Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
Questions about gambling.
Author Message
Dasville Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 7,796
Joined: Jan 2013
Reputation: 246
I Root For: UofL
Location:
Post: #1
Questions about gambling.
Do those who run the gaming industry gamble?
What game in the casino has the best odds for the player?
Is more money made on a sure thing or on the #3 horse for the bettor?
Once you are a skilled gambler, do you play the long shots or dance in the gray area?
10-20-2017 02:25 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


Frank the Tank Online
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 18,951
Joined: Jun 2008
Reputation: 1850
I Root For: Illinois/DePaul
Location: Chicago
Post: #2
RE: Questions about gambling.
I can't really answer Question #1 about gamblers within the gambling industry. It would be interesting to see a study on whether that's the case.

For Question #2, assuming that there aren't wacky house rules, craps (and specifically the come bet) have the best odds in casino and then blackjack (provided that you follow the odds-maximizing chart without deviation). Of course, as with any game, you only have the "best odds" if you play them in the correct manner that allow you to have those best odds (e.g. there are definitely very bad bets odds-wise on the craps table and you screw yourself over time in blackjack when you hit when you're supposed to stand and vice versa). Slots make the most money for casinos by far, which is why they're pushed very heavily.

For Question #3, it all depends. It's less about the "sure thing" and more about how much money is coming on each side of the bet. Generally speaking, casinos try to balance out the bets on each sporting event so they're not over-exposed. The times where you see Vegas either win a lot of money or lose a lot of money is when the casinos decide to stop adjusting a line but the public continues to bet heavily one-sided on one team. (This often happens with "public teams" that are particularly popular, such as the Cowboys or Patriots.) Every once in awhile, the casinos decide that the public is stupid and take a chance (and the casino is usually correct). Note that skilled gamblers don't bet like the general public does at all.

Further to the last point, for Question #4, if you're a skilled gambler with respect to sports, you're out to win 51%-49% against the house over the course of a year as opposed to winning a huge payout on one particular day. So, you don't take long shots just for the take of long shots. Instead, it's a statistical analysis about whether an underdog ought to be getting .5 point more on the point spread based on its performance in certain matchups or conditions. Skilled gamblers will pounce on those opportunities where they see a .5 point discrepancy in the line versus what their own statistical data shows them. (If they see a 1 point or more discrepancy, then skilled gamblers look at that as a goldmine.) They also like predictable teams (AKA "bet on" teams), meaning teams that don't have wide variances in scoring from game-to-game. (For instance, skilled gamblers loved betting on the old Bo Ryan Wisconsin basketball teams because they were so consistent. The flashy enigma teams are actually the ones that they avoid.) Most importantly, skilled gamblers know when NOT to bet. They only bet on the specific games where their data shows an advantage regarding the line and then stay away from the other games. They're the types that won't bet on the Super Bowl or National Championship Game when the lines aren't favorable, but then wager five or six figures on a Wednesday night Pepperdine - St. Mary's basketball game because their data shows an advantage. Being a skilled sports gambler is literally like running a hedge fund - you inherently take risks, but you hedge your bets so that you lock in your profits over a long period of time (not just for one day). It's not an accident that literally every trader that I know is HUGE into sports gambling.
(This post was last modified: 10-20-2017 03:52 PM by Frank the Tank.)
10-20-2017 03:44 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Dasville Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 7,796
Joined: Jan 2013
Reputation: 246
I Root For: UofL
Location:
Post: #3
RE: Questions about gambling.
That’s a hell of a detailed answer and more than I expected! Thank you for being Frank.
04-cheers
10-20-2017 04:14 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
lew240z Offline
Special Teams
*

Posts: 699
Joined: Apr 2012
Reputation: 23
I Root For: Wyoming
Location: Saint Louis, MO
Post: #4
RE: Questions about gambling.
The game with the best odds for gambler is live poker where the house charges the players a fee to provide the cards, table and dealer.
10-21-2017 12:07 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Kittonhead Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 10,000
Joined: Jun 2013
Reputation: 122
I Root For: Beat Matisse
Location:
Post: #5
RE: Questions about gambling.
Do it.
10-21-2017 12:39 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


ColKurtz Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 439
Joined: Aug 2016
Reputation: 73
I Root For: Virginia Tech
Location: Raleigh
Post: #6
RE: Questions about gambling.
Poker has the best odds, assuming you are a good player. Higher stakes are more profitable because the rake is relatively less. For house games, single-deck blackjack, without any crazy rules, has lowest house edge. Multiple deck blackjack and the come line in craps are pretty close for 2nd/3rd. Baccarat has low house odds, as well, but there are few low-stakes baccarat tables.

Horses are gambling in the purest sense. There's no "edge" to betting the win, show, or place.

There are no "skilled" gamblers outside of poker. You're going to lose in the long run unless you're a master blackjack card-counter and have a team backing you up when the deck is hot.
10-21-2017 12:51 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
ohio1317 Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 5,681
Joined: Mar 2008
Reputation: 358
I Root For: Ohio State
Location:
Post: #7
RE: Questions about gambling.
I actually work at a casino. I can tell you there are both extremes who work here. Some who will never gamble and some who love to (some even applied to work there so that they could not continue to gamble here).

I can also tell you, there is not one game where you are playing strictly against the house (horses and sports are in part vs. other people as there bets impact the line/odds as is poker obviously) that people will ever make money over the long term. Despite what people sometimes think about the shuffling machine or ways the casino might cheat (yet, still continue to sit there after stating?), it's 100% strictly in the odds. The casino has zero reason to cheat as the games have a house edge built in that steadily is going to bring them money while there would be huge fines and people would stop coming if that ever got out they cheated (which it would).

No idea on how odds play out with a sure thing vs. longer shot. I suspect some of both. In the end I think it's about whether the odds listed are unvaluing a side/horse/player/whatever. If a horse is going to win a race 8 times out of 10, it could be undervalued even with very low odds, but tough to tell that unless you are very good.
10-21-2017 07:16 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Wolfman Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,465
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 181
I Root For: The Cartel
Location: Raleigh, NC
Post: #8
RE: Questions about gambling.
Casinos will hedge their bets. If it is A vs B and they see too much betting on A, they will shift the terms to attract more bets on B. For example, A may be initially be favored by 7. If too many people bet on A they may shift that to 10, to try a get more money on B. If you follow it closely, bet at the right time (and bet correctly) you can improve your odds.
10-21-2017 09:10 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
TodgeRodge Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,938
Joined: Jun 2010
Reputation: 264
I Root For: Todge
Location: Westlake
Post: #9
RE: Questions about gambling.
1. THESE DAYS those that "run" the casino industry as in those with an actual financial stake probably gamble at a slightly lower % than the general population which means they do not gamble a great deal

there are defiantly examples of those that do like Kerry Packer (although it is his son that is the casino owner, but Kerry had gambling interest as well)

but generally for those that are higher up in casinos or in ownership they are "gambling" every day with their business plus what fun is it to win or lose money to yourself from yourself

for those in higher management generally they will not be gambling much because it is not going to be allowed at their properties because of the issues that presents and I doubt most of them enjoy spending their free time in a casino after spending all day/all night in a casino plus there is the issue of doing business with a competitor and also the fact that lower level employees might have switched properties and the potential for "insider dealing" with that as well so a known casino exec is going to be watched much closer than others......it will simply not be fun for them

now lower level casino employees often at lower level properties probably gamble well above the average population that will decline in frequency as the quality of the property goes up

2. the games with the best odds would be 9-5 JoB which is 9-5 Jacks or Better (the game that the Vegas shooter liked to play)

you need the correct pay table for that game and you need to play the proper strategy as well which will sometimes mean you play differently than you would in live poker because you are trying to get the BEST winning hand possible each time not just a "winning hand"......some of those games can be break even or near break even or sometimes even slightly better than break even if they have something else associated with them

the next would be Black Jack using 100% proper strategy AND being able to count cards and being at a single deck (almost non existent) or a double deck (rare) game or a 6 deck game WITHOUT auto shuffle

playing that properly and counting cards properly AND with a large enough bank roll you can at some points get to where the odds are in your favor....BUT that can take infinitely long

after that a roulette wheel with a single 0 (vs 0 and 00) and betting red or black

after that baccarat and that will depend on the % you pay for each banker bet the lower the % you pay on a banker bet the better the odds get to being even

after that it is Craps betting pass no pass AND making use of the "backer" odds with the higher the amount you can "back" with the better AND paying attention to the odds of making each "point" number

it is all downhill from there

3. there really are no "sure things", but in general you will probably do the best betting on horses that are favored and betting to win, place and show

but like anything the "odds" are not about what horse (or sports team) the casino or race book EXPECTS to win they can care less who wins the odds are designed to get the amount of money bet on each horse or each team as even as possible so that the casino or race book breaks even on the actual beta and they make money on the "juice" or "vig"

it makes no sense for a casino or race book to actually GAMBLE on who or what wins when they can simply even the money on each side and collect their 10% from the losers

you would have to be a fool to actually GAMBLE when you can simply make 5% on the total dollars bet (10% on half the money bet IE 10% of the losers bets)....trying to do anything else is a great way to go broke especially when there is still so much corruption in sports and gambling

4. someone stated above that you are trying to bet to end the year 51% winning an 49% losing well if you did that you would go broke because of the 10% juice

if you bet $1,100 on 100 games that is $110,000 and you would be betting to win $100,000 because you bet WITH THE JUICE IE if you want to win $1,000 well you have to bet $1,000 PLUS 10% THE JUICE which would be an additional $100 dollars so you are betting $1,100 to win $1,000

if you bet 100 games and you games to win $1,000 then you will BET $110,000 to win $100,000 over those 100 games

if you go 51% to 49% well you will lose 49% X $1,100 = $53,900 that you lose and if you win 51% X 1,000 or $51,000 so you would lose $2,900 on that betting outcome over 100 games

if you went 52% to 48% you are losing $52,800 and winning $52,000 or a total loss of $$800

so you have to go at least 54% to 47% losing $51,700 and winning $53,000 or a net win of $1.300

4. at some point if you want to make any actual real money you will need to win some more exotic bests like a parlay or moneyline or the like

the reality is the casino does not care if YOU as an individual win 100% of your best with them because their goal is to make sure that someone else had an equal amount of money placed on the opposite side of your bet so they can pay your win with the losers bet and keep the losers juice

so really you are not "picking against the casinos odds experts" as much as you are picking against all those that are making best and trying to be on the right side of that general sentiment each time

that is what makes it so hard is because you are not competing against a "few odds makers" you are competing against the overall general public at large and the overall sentiment that large groups of people are going to be "manipulated" (for lack of a better term) to place even money on each side of the bet as an overall population
10-21-2017 12:25 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2024 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2024 MyBB Group.