Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
NY6 payday.
Author Message
TU4ever Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,941
Joined: Feb 2017
Reputation: 169
I Root For: Tulsa
Location:
Post: #61
RE: NY6 payday.
(10-17-2017 03:02 PM)fanhood Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 02:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 01:23 PM)fanhood Wrote:  Damn, USF's schedule is going to crush them if they ever get evaluated.

Our SOS does suck, but thanks to SDSU losing last week, as of now it doesn't matter: If we win out, we will be the only undefeated G5 school, and will surely get the NY6 bid no matter what any other G5 team does.

Now, if say we lose a game, like to Tulane this week, but then go on to win the AAC title, then yes, if we are being compared to a 1-loss SDSU team, our SOS could sink us.

But as of now, it's not a problem. 07-coffee3

Very true. You continue to be a realistic, and educated fan. Not to mention, the woman in your avatar photo, continues to look spectacular.


Hmmm, funny how you and quohood back each other up with the same points and then pat each other on the back. Pretty sure my shot in the dark exposed your dual idenity. Bruce wayne/batman quo/fanhood.
10-17-2017 04:14 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
AusTxPony Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,714
Joined: Apr 2005
Reputation: 67
I Root For: SMU
Location:
Post: #62
RE: NY6 payday.
I think SDSU is still a danger. AAC may come down to CCG and if the lower ranked wins, bye bye. Like to see the Aztecs lose another to be safe. Or Stanford crashing. Don't see anyone else topping the AAC Champ.
(This post was last modified: 10-17-2017 04:20 PM by AusTxPony.)
10-17-2017 04:18 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 50,012
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 2372
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: New Orleans
Post: #63
RE: NY6 payday.
(10-17-2017 04:14 PM)TU4ever Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 03:02 PM)fanhood Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 02:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 01:23 PM)fanhood Wrote:  Damn, USF's schedule is going to crush them if they ever get evaluated.

Our SOS does suck, but thanks to SDSU losing last week, as of now it doesn't matter: If we win out, we will be the only undefeated G5 school, and will surely get the NY6 bid no matter what any other G5 team does.

Now, if say we lose a game, like to Tulane this week, but then go on to win the AAC title, then yes, if we are being compared to a 1-loss SDSU team, our SOS could sink us.

But as of now, it's not a problem. 07-coffee3

Very true. You continue to be a realistic, and educated fan. Not to mention, the woman in your avatar photo, continues to look spectacular.


Hmmm, funny how you and quohood back each other up with the same points and then pat each other on the back. Pretty sure my shot in the dark exposed your dual idenity. Bruce wayne/batman quo/fanhood.

You're as wrong about this as you are about football-related things. 03-lmfao
10-17-2017 04:27 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 50,012
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 2372
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: New Orleans
Post: #64
RE: NY6 payday.
(10-17-2017 04:18 PM)AusTxPony Wrote:  I think SDSU is still a danger. AAC may come down to CCG and if the lower ranked wins, bye bye. Like to see the Aztecs lose another to be safe. Or Stanford crashing. Don't see anyone else topping the AAC Champ.

You're wise to believe this. Yes, as long as UCF or USF are undefeated, they control their NY6 destiny. But should the AAC champ have a loss, then once-beaten SDSU would again be a threat, especially if Stanford keeps surging.
(This post was last modified: 10-17-2017 04:29 PM by quo vadis.)
10-17-2017 04:29 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
fanhood Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,593
Joined: Dec 2015
Reputation: 71
I Root For: San Diego State
Location:
Post: #65
RE: NY6 payday.
(10-17-2017 04:10 PM)TU4ever Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 02:11 PM)fanhood Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 01:54 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 01:23 PM)fanhood Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 12:00 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  If Navy beat all of those teams they would be ranked like 15th. Thats a massey composite 9th ND, 11th UCF, and 3 loss Army. Good luck to anyone who can do that.
Massey Composite says:
11 UCF (best win 30)
23 USF (best win 98)
24 SDSU (best win 16)
28 Boise State (best win 24)
30 Memphis (best win 36)
36 Navy (best win 77)
39 Toledo (best win 84)
50 SMU (best win 87)
52 Houston (best win 48)
57 CSU (best win 93)
58 Marshall (best win 99)
59 Fresno State (best win 88)
60 WMU (best win 89)
61 NIU (best win 73)
65 App State (best win 101)

Damn, USF's schedule is going to crush them if they ever get evaluated.

You guys are missing the point. USF, UCF, and Memphis are ahead of any other G5 team as of today. All 3 are ranked. They each have to play and beat multiple top 25 teams in order to win the AAC. Thier SOS over the last half of the season means whoever wins the AAC literally cannot be caught by any other G5 champ. The AAC champ (whoever it ends up being) will be piling up Top 25 wins while the rest of the G5 champs will be playing unranked teams. Game over.

You realize the rankings that matter have not come out yet, right? So your statement is false, since nobody knows what the rankings will be.

You could be right, but you don't know right now.

Also, it is not a foot race, and nobody is going to "get caught," so your use of the term "literally" is not accurate.


Yes i am sure that sdsu will be ranked ahead of the ucf, usf, and memphis when the rankings come out 03-lmfao you realize the same type of people voting in the cfp rankings vote in the coaches poll?

His odds of beinisright are way higher than sdsu being ranked or stanford winning out.

Did you just bring english rules into a sports board discussion 03-lmfao

You're pathetic and your little imaginary world seems to be collapsing 07-coffee3

Josie, I told you to eat your cereal honey. We are not going to the pumpkin patch until you listen to mommy and daddy.
10-17-2017 04:30 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
geosnooker2000 Offline
I got Cleopatra in the basement
*

Posts: 25,267
Joined: Aug 2006
Reputation: 1358
I Root For: Brandon
Location: Somerville, TN
Post: #66
RE: NY6 payday.
I thought re: the title of this thread that this would be a discussion of what the payout would be to the AAC for the Access spot.
10-17-2017 04:42 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
TU4ever Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,941
Joined: Feb 2017
Reputation: 169
I Root For: Tulsa
Location:
Post: #67
RE: NY6 payday.
(10-17-2017 04:30 PM)fanhood Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 04:10 PM)TU4ever Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 02:11 PM)fanhood Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 01:54 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 01:23 PM)fanhood Wrote:  Damn, USF's schedule is going to crush them if they ever get evaluated.

You guys are missing the point. USF, UCF, and Memphis are ahead of any other G5 team as of today. All 3 are ranked. They each have to play and beat multiple top 25 teams in order to win the AAC. Thier SOS over the last half of the season means whoever wins the AAC literally cannot be caught by any other G5 champ. The AAC champ (whoever it ends up being) will be piling up Top 25 wins while the rest of the G5 champs will be playing unranked teams. Game over.

You realize the rankings that matter have not come out yet, right? So your statement is false, since nobody knows what the rankings will be.

You could be right, but you don't know right now.

Also, it is not a foot race, and nobody is going to "get caught," so your use of the term "literally" is not accurate.


Yes i am sure that sdsu will be ranked ahead of the ucf, usf, and memphis when the rankings come out 03-lmfao you realize the same type of people voting in the cfp rankings vote in the coaches poll?

His odds of beinisright are way higher than sdsu being ranked or stanford winning out.

Did you just bring english rules into a sports board discussion 03-lmfao

You're pathetic and your little imaginary world seems to be collapsing 07-coffee3

Josie, I told you to eat your cereal honey. We are not going to the pumpkin patch until you listen to mommy and daddy.


Again pathetic and living in an imaginary world, luckily most insane people are harmless mutterers, because that is some you missed your medicine ****.
10-17-2017 04:48 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
TU4ever Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,941
Joined: Feb 2017
Reputation: 169
I Root For: Tulsa
Location:
Post: #68
RE: NY6 payday.
(10-17-2017 04:27 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 04:14 PM)TU4ever Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 03:02 PM)fanhood Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 02:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 01:23 PM)fanhood Wrote:  Damn, USF's schedule is going to crush them if they ever get evaluated.

Our SOS does suck, but thanks to SDSU losing last week, as of now it doesn't matter: If we win out, we will be the only undefeated G5 school, and will surely get the NY6 bid no matter what any other G5 team does.

Now, if say we lose a game, like to Tulane this week, but then go on to win the AAC title, then yes, if we are being compared to a 1-loss SDSU team, our SOS could sink us.

But as of now, it's not a problem. 07-coffee3

Very true. You continue to be a realistic, and educated fan. Not to mention, the woman in your avatar photo, continues to look spectacular.


Hmmm, funny how you and quohood back each other up with the same points and then pat each other on the back. Pretty sure my shot in the dark exposed your dual idenity. Bruce wayne/batman quo/fanhood.

You're as wrong about this as you are about football-related things. 03-lmfao

Unhunh, and two posts below this is fanhood going right along with you. . .
10-17-2017 04:50 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Attackcoog Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 44,737
Joined: Oct 2011
Reputation: 2860
I Root For: Houston
Location:
Post: #69
RE: NY6 payday.
(10-17-2017 02:11 PM)fanhood Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 01:54 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 01:23 PM)fanhood Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 12:00 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 11:26 AM)fanhood Wrote:  Good breakdown. I would add that SDSU has a win over an NIU team that may be a conference champ.

My opinion, Navy is in the best position as a one loss team, as they would have a late season win over ND, play Army in a marquee game, and would have wins over UCF, and Houston. SDSU and UCF would be close behind, followed by Memphis. USF would be in a tough situation if they were compared to SDSU or even Toledo as a one loss team.
If Navy beat all of those teams they would be ranked like 15th. Thats a massey composite 9th ND, 11th UCF, and 3 loss Army. Good luck to anyone who can do that.
Massey Composite says:
11 UCF (best win 30)
23 USF (best win 98)
24 SDSU (best win 16)
28 Boise State (best win 24)
30 Memphis (best win 36)
36 Navy (best win 77)
39 Toledo (best win 84)
50 SMU (best win 87)
52 Houston (best win 48)
57 CSU (best win 93)
58 Marshall (best win 99)
59 Fresno State (best win 88)
60 WMU (best win 89)
61 NIU (best win 73)
65 App State (best win 101)

Damn, USF's schedule is going to crush them if they ever get evaluated.

You guys are missing the point. USF, UCF, and Memphis are ahead of any other G5 team as of today. All 3 are ranked. They each have to play and beat multiple top 25 teams in order to win the AAC. Thier SOS over the last half of the season means whoever wins the AAC literally cannot be caught by any other G5 champ. The AAC champ (whoever it ends up being) will be piling up Top 25 wins while the rest of the G5 champs will be playing unranked teams. Game over.

You realize the rankings that matter have not come out yet, right? So your statement is false, since nobody knows what the rankings will be.

You could be right, but you don't know right now.

Also, it is not a foot race, and nobody is going to "get caught," so your use of the term "literally" is not accurate.

We have the data we have. No other G5 school is even ranked. Three AAC schools are. The CFP committee rankings arent going to differ enough to take a completely unranked team and place it ahead of 3 currently ranked teams---one of which is sitting in the lower teens. The only G5's that have a decent opportunity for quality wins are in the AAC. Like I said, the G5 access bowl conference is no longer in question---only the team is.
(This post was last modified: 10-17-2017 05:53 PM by Attackcoog.)
10-17-2017 05:52 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 50,012
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 2372
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: New Orleans
Post: #70
RE: NY6 payday.
(10-17-2017 05:52 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  We have the data we have. No other G5 school is even ranked. Three AAC schools are. The CFP committee rankings arent going to differ enough to take a completely unranked team and place it ahead of 3 currently ranked teams---one of which is sitting in the lower teens. The only G5's that have a decent opportunity for quality wins are in the AAC. Like I said, the G5 access bowl conference is no longer in question---only the team is.

I hope we don't ever have to see, but I think it quite likely that should say Memphis win the AAC and SDSU win the MWC both with a single loss, and if Stanford were to win the PAC, then SDSU would get the CFP bid over Memphis.

The committee has never shown a propensity to stick rigidly to rankings one week to the next, as new information comes in, it has been willing to move teams around. Stanford winning the PAC would be a game-changer, if the AAC champ also has a loss.
(This post was last modified: 10-17-2017 06:17 PM by quo vadis.)
10-17-2017 06:16 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
UofMstateU Online
Legend
*

Posts: 39,084
Joined: Dec 2009
Reputation: 3551
I Root For: Memphis
Location:
Post: #71
RE: NY6 payday.
(10-17-2017 06:16 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 05:52 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  We have the data we have. No other G5 school is even ranked. Three AAC schools are. The CFP committee rankings arent going to differ enough to take a completely unranked team and place it ahead of 3 currently ranked teams---one of which is sitting in the lower teens. The only G5's that have a decent opportunity for quality wins are in the AAC. Like I said, the G5 access bowl conference is no longer in question---only the team is.

I hope we don't ever have to see, but I think it quite likely that should say Memphis win the AAC and SDSU win the MWC both with a single loss, and if Stanford were to win the PAC, then SDSU would get the CFP bid over Memphis.

The committee has never shown a propensity to stick rigidly to rankings one week to the next, as new information comes in, it has been willing to move teams around. Stanford winning the PAC would be a game-changer, if the AAC champ also has a loss.

Who will SDSU be playing again in the CCG? A ranked team? Bwahahahaha.

A single team does not an SOS make. Memphis' will be better, period. That will give them an edge over any crappy SOS team with a single good win. (A win that as of now is marginal, and in for weeks could be laughable.)

If SDSU loses on Saturday, its all over for them. Period. Completely locked out.
10-17-2017 06:38 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
UofToledoFans Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 13,638
Joined: Aug 2010
Reputation: 127
I Root For: Toledo and G5
Location:
Post: #72
RE: NY6 payday.
(10-17-2017 06:38 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 06:16 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 05:52 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  We have the data we have. No other G5 school is even ranked. Three AAC schools are. The CFP committee rankings arent going to differ enough to take a completely unranked team and place it ahead of 3 currently ranked teams---one of which is sitting in the lower teens. The only G5's that have a decent opportunity for quality wins are in the AAC. Like I said, the G5 access bowl conference is no longer in question---only the team is.

I hope we don't ever have to see, but I think it quite likely that should say Memphis win the AAC and SDSU win the MWC both with a single loss, and if Stanford were to win the PAC, then SDSU would get the CFP bid over Memphis.

The committee has never shown a propensity to stick rigidly to rankings one week to the next, as new information comes in, it has been willing to move teams around. Stanford winning the PAC would be a game-changer, if the AAC champ also has a loss.

Who will SDSU be playing again in the CCG? A ranked team? Bwahahahaha.

A single team does not an SOS make. Memphis' will be better, period. That will give them an edge over any crappy SOS team with a single good win. (A win that as of now is marginal, and in for weeks could be laughable.)

If SDSU loses on Saturday, its all over for them. Period. Completely locked out.
With the upcoming schedules and liklihood to win future games i see the probabilities as this:

30% UCF
28% USF
20% Memphis
18% SDSU
9% Navy
1%Toledo/Marshall/Houston/Boise State
10-17-2017 08:03 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
geosnooker2000 Offline
I got Cleopatra in the basement
*

Posts: 25,267
Joined: Aug 2006
Reputation: 1358
I Root For: Brandon
Location: Somerville, TN
Post: #73
RE: NY6 payday.
(10-17-2017 06:38 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 06:16 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 05:52 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  We have the data we have. No other G5 school is even ranked. Three AAC schools are. The CFP committee rankings arent going to differ enough to take a completely unranked team and place it ahead of 3 currently ranked teams---one of which is sitting in the lower teens. The only G5's that have a decent opportunity for quality wins are in the AAC. Like I said, the G5 access bowl conference is no longer in question---only the team is.

I hope we don't ever have to see, but I think it quite likely that should say Memphis win the AAC and SDSU win the MWC both with a single loss, and if Stanford were to win the PAC, then SDSU would get the CFP bid over Memphis.

The committee has never shown a propensity to stick rigidly to rankings one week to the next, as new information comes in, it has been willing to move teams around. Stanford winning the PAC would be a game-changer, if the AAC champ also has a loss.

Who will SDSU be playing again in the CCG? A ranked team? Bwahahahaha.

A single team does not an SOS make. Memphis' will be better, period. That will give them an edge over any crappy SOS team with a single good win. (A win that as of now is marginal, and in for weeks could be laughable.)

If SDSU loses on Saturday, its all over for them. Period. Completely locked out.

Exactly, and to offer proof, just look at what they (poll voters) did to Clemson after loosing to an unranked Syracuse. They dropped them only 6 positions. That's how much they discount the importance of only one game within the context of whole season. They care much more about the resume'. How many quality (read ranked* ** opponents) have you faced vs. your overall record. We (Memphis) have now faced 3 ranked teams, and will likely face a 4th if we are good/lucky enough to reach the CCG.

I'm not saying this is the most realistic accounting of what has transpired - I'm saying I believe this is how the committee will view things.

*I know UCLA is not ranked now, but I believe the committee will look at that as a ranked win, or at least credit for a win over a "P5" opponent

** I realize that UCF was NOT ranked when we faced them, but then again, they were after (and partly because of) beating us.
10-17-2017 10:23 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
TripleA Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 58,461
Joined: Jun 2008
Reputation: 3153
I Root For: Memphis Tigers
Location: The woods of Bammer

Memphis Hall of Fame
Post: #74
RE: NY6 payday.
(10-17-2017 11:55 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 10:49 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 08:40 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 02:31 PM)msu65 Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 01:39 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Again ... if Stanford keeps winning and ends up with a high rank, that will trump all the Memphis wins within the AAC. Don't fool yourself about that.

Heck, who do you think you are playing from here on out?

Houston? They are 4-2, you beat them, they are 4-3.
SMU? Also 4-2, will also be 4-3.
Tulane? They are 3-3, after we beat them, 3-4, after you do, 3-5.

Then you play 2-5 Tulsa and 1-6 ECU. You think that's going to help your SOS to impress the CFP?

You don't have any good games left on your schedule, save for a possible AAC title game.

USF and UCF no longer need to worry about SDSU - if we win out, we're in the NY6. But Memphis still does.

Have you taken a look at that "craptastic" schedule SD state has remaining. Two 1-6 teams and, I believe one team with a winning record remain. If we run the table we will have a win over a highly ranked USF or UCF and one loss in a much tougher conference. San Diego State's SOS will not be the equal of Memphis and Memphis is currently higher ranked. Also Memphis only loss will be to a much better team than Boise.

Yes, SDSU has a craptastic remaining schedule, and I'm well aware of that. Unfortunately, Memphis's remaining schedule isn't much to look at either. It's the difference between a "soft" schedule and a "very soft" schedule, which isn't much of a difference.

If I were a Memphis fan thinking of the NY6, I'd definitely want Stanford to suffer another loss and not play for the PAC title. 07-coffee3

I agree, if UCF and USF stumble, the fates of the 1 loss teams ride a whole lot on the P5 teams beaten.

SDSU - Needs Stanford do well. ASU making it to 6-6 would be a huge lift for them.

Memphis - Fate rides on UCLA. (Has all decent teams remaining and two ranked). In addition, they may have a third FBS win against a Bowl Eligible NIU

UCF - Needs MD to perform better. MD just to get to bowl Eligible has to beat either
PSU, Mich, MSU or Wisc) If they do, could bode well for UCF. Similar to SDSU, FIU may be bowl Elgible.

Navy - If Memphis loses twice, their fate rides on ND and a strong Army team.

USF - Need more be said about SOS and OOC. They have to go undefeated. It would not surprise if UCF was ahead of them in the first CFP if both are undefeated.

Marshall - My darkhorse, they have the same issue with SOS but at least in their OOC was four FBS teams. A loss to a possibly CFP Ranked NCSU. I still think they would need AAC and MWC to have two loss G5 champs to even be in consideration.

None of that really matters at this point. Three AAC teams are already in front of any other potential G5 conference champ. From here---top 25 wins will carry the day. Whoever wins the AAC will have to get multiple "top 25" victories over the back half of the season in order to win the AAC championship. That will keep them elevated well above the rest of the other G5 competitors with ease. There is really no way for any other G5 champ to get there at this point. The advantage of having 3 top 25 teams (plus one just outside the top 25) cant be overcome by any other G5 conference schedule. Its over. The question isnt "if" an AAC team will get the access bowl---the question is really "which" AAC team will get the access bowl.

Too bad a bunch of these numbnutz don't understand that. The only hope would be the 3 top AAC teams all have a couple losses each, at least. With the remaining schedules, that seems unlikely.
(This post was last modified: 10-17-2017 10:45 PM by TripleA.)
10-17-2017 10:39 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
TripleA Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 58,461
Joined: Jun 2008
Reputation: 3153
I Root For: Memphis Tigers
Location: The woods of Bammer

Memphis Hall of Fame
Post: #75
RE: NY6 payday.
(10-17-2017 08:03 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 06:38 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 06:16 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 05:52 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  We have the data we have. No other G5 school is even ranked. Three AAC schools are. The CFP committee rankings arent going to differ enough to take a completely unranked team and place it ahead of 3 currently ranked teams---one of which is sitting in the lower teens. The only G5's that have a decent opportunity for quality wins are in the AAC. Like I said, the G5 access bowl conference is no longer in question---only the team is.

I hope we don't ever have to see, but I think it quite likely that should say Memphis win the AAC and SDSU win the MWC both with a single loss, and if Stanford were to win the PAC, then SDSU would get the CFP bid over Memphis.

The committee has never shown a propensity to stick rigidly to rankings one week to the next, as new information comes in, it has been willing to move teams around. Stanford winning the PAC would be a game-changer, if the AAC champ also has a loss.

Who will SDSU be playing again in the CCG? A ranked team? Bwahahahaha.

A single team does not an SOS make. Memphis' will be better, period. That will give them an edge over any crappy SOS team with a single good win. (A win that as of now is marginal, and in for weeks could be laughable.)

If SDSU loses on Saturday, its all over for them. Period. Completely locked out.
With the upcoming schedules and liklihood to win future games i see the probabilities as this:

30% UCF
28% USF
20% Memphis
18% SDSU
9% Navy
1%Toledo/Marshall/Houston/Boise State

Nice probabilities. They total 106%.
10-17-2017 10:42 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
UofMstateU Online
Legend
*

Posts: 39,084
Joined: Dec 2009
Reputation: 3551
I Root For: Memphis
Location:
Post: #76
RE: NY6 payday.
(10-17-2017 10:42 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 08:03 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 06:38 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 06:16 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 05:52 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  We have the data we have. No other G5 school is even ranked. Three AAC schools are. The CFP committee rankings arent going to differ enough to take a completely unranked team and place it ahead of 3 currently ranked teams---one of which is sitting in the lower teens. The only G5's that have a decent opportunity for quality wins are in the AAC. Like I said, the G5 access bowl conference is no longer in question---only the team is.

I hope we don't ever have to see, but I think it quite likely that should say Memphis win the AAC and SDSU win the MWC both with a single loss, and if Stanford were to win the PAC, then SDSU would get the CFP bid over Memphis.

The committee has never shown a propensity to stick rigidly to rankings one week to the next, as new information comes in, it has been willing to move teams around. Stanford winning the PAC would be a game-changer, if the AAC champ also has a loss.

Who will SDSU be playing again in the CCG? A ranked team? Bwahahahaha.

A single team does not an SOS make. Memphis' will be better, period. That will give them an edge over any crappy SOS team with a single good win. (A win that as of now is marginal, and in for weeks could be laughable.)

If SDSU loses on Saturday, its all over for them. Period. Completely locked out.
With the upcoming schedules and liklihood to win future games i see the probabilities as this:

30% UCF
28% USF
20% Memphis
18% SDSU
9% Navy
1%Toledo/Marshall/Houston/Boise State

Nice probabilities. They total 106%.

Also, Memphis is by far the favorite. Their remaining schedule is much easier. (USF/UCF have yet to play each other and can lock each other out. )

Its probably closer to:

35% Memphis
25% UCF
25% USF
5% Navy
5% SDSU
5% Someone else
10-17-2017 11:32 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
firmbizzle Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 20,447
Joined: Jul 2008
Reputation: 442
I Root For: UF, UCF
Location:
Post: #77
RE: NY6 payday.
(10-17-2017 11:32 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 10:42 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 08:03 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 06:38 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 06:16 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I hope we don't ever have to see, but I think it quite likely that should say Memphis win the AAC and SDSU win the MWC both with a single loss, and if Stanford were to win the PAC, then SDSU would get the CFP bid over Memphis.

The committee has never shown a propensity to stick rigidly to rankings one week to the next, as new information comes in, it has been willing to move teams around. Stanford winning the PAC would be a game-changer, if the AAC champ also has a loss.

Who will SDSU be playing again in the CCG? A ranked team? Bwahahahaha.

A single team does not an SOS make. Memphis' will be better, period. That will give them an edge over any crappy SOS team with a single good win. (A win that as of now is marginal, and in for weeks could be laughable.)

If SDSU loses on Saturday, its all over for them. Period. Completely locked out.
With the upcoming schedules and liklihood to win future games i see the probabilities as this:

30% UCF
28% USF
20% Memphis
18% SDSU
9% Navy
1%Toledo/Marshall/Houston/Boise State

Nice probabilities. They total 106%.

Also, Memphis is by far the favorite. Their remaining schedule is much easier. (USF/UCF have yet to play each other and can lock each other out. )

Its probably closer to:

35% Memphis
25% UCF
25% USF
5% Navy
5% SDSU
5% Someone else

Then who does Memphis play in the CCG and where do they play it?07-coffee3
10-18-2017 07:08 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Atlanta Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 13,337
Joined: Nov 2009
Reputation: 935
I Root For: Memphis Tigers
Location: Metro Atlanta
Post: #78
RE: NY6 payday.
(10-18-2017 07:08 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 11:32 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 10:42 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 08:03 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 06:38 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Who will SDSU be playing again in the CCG? A ranked team? Bwahahahaha.

A single team does not an SOS make. Memphis' will be better, period. That will give them an edge over any crappy SOS team with a single good win. (A win that as of now is marginal, and in for weeks could be laughable.)

If SDSU loses on Saturday, its all over for them. Period. Completely locked out.
With the upcoming schedules and liklihood to win future games i see the probabilities as this:

30% UCF
28% USF
20% Memphis
18% SDSU
9% Navy
1%Toledo/Marshall/Houston/Boise State

Nice probabilities. They total 106%.

Also, Memphis is by far the favorite. Their remaining schedule is much easier. (USF/UCF have yet to play each other and can lock each other out. )

Its probably closer to:

35% Memphis
25% UCF
25% USF
5% Navy
5% SDSU
5% Someone else

Then who does Memphis play in the CCG and where do they play it?07-coffee3

Obviously, if there's a way for Memphis to win out & play the CCG at home it's the best scenario for Memphis. But it's not likely with UCF already having the Memphis win, giving them the CCG if they win the east undefeated & if USF beats UCF later this season then USF likely comes to the CCG with the best record, giving them the CCG at home. But never say never. UCF will have a real test at Navy this weekend. And Memphis has several tests left starting at UH tomorrow. Aside from playing UCF, USF has by far the easiest route - making the UCF-USF game very big. May the best team win it all - and win the NY6 bowl too.
(This post was last modified: 10-18-2017 07:24 AM by Atlanta.)
10-18-2017 07:23 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 50,012
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 2372
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: New Orleans
Post: #79
RE: NY6 payday.
(10-17-2017 10:23 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 06:38 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 06:16 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 05:52 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  We have the data we have. No other G5 school is even ranked. Three AAC schools are. The CFP committee rankings arent going to differ enough to take a completely unranked team and place it ahead of 3 currently ranked teams---one of which is sitting in the lower teens. The only G5's that have a decent opportunity for quality wins are in the AAC. Like I said, the G5 access bowl conference is no longer in question---only the team is.

I hope we don't ever have to see, but I think it quite likely that should say Memphis win the AAC and SDSU win the MWC both with a single loss, and if Stanford were to win the PAC, then SDSU would get the CFP bid over Memphis.

The committee has never shown a propensity to stick rigidly to rankings one week to the next, as new information comes in, it has been willing to move teams around. Stanford winning the PAC would be a game-changer, if the AAC champ also has a loss.

Who will SDSU be playing again in the CCG? A ranked team? Bwahahahaha.

A single team does not an SOS make. Memphis' will be better, period. That will give them an edge over any crappy SOS team with a single good win. (A win that as of now is marginal, and in for weeks could be laughable.)

If SDSU loses on Saturday, its all over for them. Period. Completely locked out.

Exactly, and to offer proof, just look at what they (poll voters) did to Clemson after loosing to an unranked Syracuse. They dropped them only 6 positions. That's how much they discount the importance of only one game within the context of whole season. They care much more about the resume'. How many quality (read ranked* ** opponents) have you faced vs. your overall record. We (Memphis) have now faced 3 ranked teams, and will likely face a 4th if we are good/lucky enough to reach the CCG.

I'm not saying this is the most realistic accounting of what has transpired - I'm saying I believe this is how t

To state the obvious: for crissakes, Memphis isn't Clemson. Clemson is the defending national champ, played for the national championship the year before, and are two-time defending ACC champs. They have built up a huge reservoir of good will with pollsters. And yes, they are P5, and voters are biased in favor of P5. Memphis is ... Memphis.

If you want proof of the difference, consider that Memphis and Clemson are both 5-1, and Clemson has a much worse loss, and yet Clemson is #8 in both polls while Memphis is #25 by the skin of its teeth in one poll and unranked in the other.

FWIW, the CFP isn't going regard a win over a 3-3 UCLA team as a win vs a "ranked" team. You will only get credit for that as a ranked win if UCLA ends up ranked. Right now, they aren't. On the other hand, because UCF is ranked, you do have 'credit' for losing to a ranked team, meaning that's a 'good' loss, as losses go.

IMO you are vastly overrating the "stickiness" of AAC rankings. Rankings tend to be sticky, meaning a team doesn't drop far with a loss, when it has quality wins. But, UCF and USF are ranked not because they have beaten anyone, neither has, but because they are undefeated, and everyone respects "undefeated" at a certain level, even if against bad competition. But as soon as an unbeaten team with a bad SOS loses, they drop like a stone. If Memphis beats #11 UCF in the AAC title game, they won't get credit for beating #11, because as soon as UCF loses to Memphis, they will drop to #21, and the win won't look so good any more. You just found that out with Navy: Navy was undefeated and ranked, and as soon as you beat them, voila, not ranked anymore.

In contrast, if Stanford keeps winning, that will be a huge win for SDSU. So it will behoove Memphis if Stanford loses. Root against Stanford, seriously. 07-coffee3
(This post was last modified: 10-18-2017 08:09 AM by quo vadis.)
10-18-2017 08:06 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Atlanta Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 13,337
Joined: Nov 2009
Reputation: 935
I Root For: Memphis Tigers
Location: Metro Atlanta
Post: #80
RE: NY6 payday.
(10-18-2017 08:06 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 10:23 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 06:38 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 06:16 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 05:52 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  We have the data we have. No other G5 school is even ranked. Three AAC schools are. The CFP committee rankings arent going to differ enough to take a completely unranked team and place it ahead of 3 currently ranked teams---one of which is sitting in the lower teens. The only G5's that have a decent opportunity for quality wins are in the AAC. Like I said, the G5 access bowl conference is no longer in question---only the team is.

I hope we don't ever have to see, but I think it quite likely that should say Memphis win the AAC and SDSU win the MWC both with a single loss, and if Stanford were to win the PAC, then SDSU would get the CFP bid over Memphis.

The committee has never shown a propensity to stick rigidly to rankings one week to the next, as new information comes in, it has been willing to move teams around. Stanford winning the PAC would be a game-changer, if the AAC champ also has a loss.

Who will SDSU be playing again in the CCG? A ranked team? Bwahahahaha.

A single team does not an SOS make. Memphis' will be better, period. That will give them an edge over any crappy SOS team with a single good win. (A win that as of now is marginal, and in for weeks could be laughable.)

If SDSU loses on Saturday, its all over for them. Period. Completely locked out.

Exactly, and to offer proof, just look at what they (poll voters) did to Clemson after loosing to an unranked Syracuse. They dropped them only 6 positions. That's how much they discount the importance of only one game within the context of whole season. They care much more about the resume'. How many quality (read ranked* ** opponents) have you faced vs. your overall record. We (Memphis) have now faced 3 ranked teams, and will likely face a 4th if we are good/lucky enough to reach the CCG.

I'm not saying this is the most realistic accounting of what has transpired - I'm saying I believe this is how t

To state the obvious: for crissakes, Memphis isn't Clemson. Clemson is the defending national champ, played for the national championship the year before, and are two-time defending ACC champs. They have built up a huge reservoir of good will with pollsters. And yes, they are P5, and voters are biased in favor of P5. Memphis is ... Memphis.

If you want proof of the difference, consider that Memphis and Clemson are both 5-1, and Clemson has a much worse loss, and yet Clemson is #8 in both polls while Memphis is #25 by the skin of its teeth in one poll and unranked in the other.

FWIW, the CFP isn't going regard a win over a 3-3 UCLA team as a win vs a "ranked" team. You will only get credit for that as a ranked win if UCLA ends up ranked. Right now, they aren't. On the other hand, because UCF is ranked, you do have 'credit' for losing to a ranked team, meaning that's a 'good' loss, as losses go.

IMO you are vastly overrating the "stickiness" of AAC rankings. Rankings tend to be sticky, meaning a team doesn't drop far with a loss, when it has quality wins. But, UCF and USF are ranked not because they have beaten anyone, neither has, but because they are undefeated, and everyone respects "undefeated" at a certain level, even if against bad competition. But as soon as an unbeaten team with a bad SOS loses, they drop like a stone. If Memphis beats #11 UCF in the AAC title game, they won't get credit for beating #11, because as soon as UCF loses to Memphis, they will drop to #21, and the win won't look so good any more. You just found that out with Navy: Navy was undefeated and ranked, and as soon as you beat them, voila, not ranked anymore.

In contrast, if Stanford keeps winning, that will be a huge win for SDSU. So it will behoove Memphis if Stanford loses. Root against Stanford, seriously. 07-coffee3

It's kind of obvious that a Stanford loss helps not only Memphis but whoever the AAC leader happens to be - doesn't take 5 paragraphs to know that. But what you seem to deny is that the AAC champion, whoever it is under the mostly likely options now has a clear advantage over SDSU who plays no one the rest of the way. And BTW, using your logic, it's not that SDSU gets credit for a good Stanford win but rather they get penalized for a bad loss to Boise.....with no way to recover given their schedule.
10-18-2017 08:38 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2024 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2024 MyBB Group.