the thing now with the AAC is they have 3 teams that will be very hard for even SDSU to beat(and SDSU would have the only chance and only there vs Memphis)- that have over a 50% chance of winning out combined. UCF right now has a 29.6% chance of winning out. USF has a 16.4% chance of winning out(only reason why numbers look like that is USF/UCF game is @ UCF this year). Memphis has 7.8 chance of winning out. If any of those 3 win out, the only one that has any chance in any fashion to top them is SDSU(who themselves has only a 28.5% chance of winning out).

(10-20-2017 08:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing now with the AAC is they have 3 teams that will be very hard for even SDSU to beat(and SDSU would have the only chance and only there vs Memphis)- that have over a 50% chance of winning out combined. UCF right now has a 29.6% chance of winning out. USF has a 16.4% chance of winning out(only reason why numbers look like that is USF/UCF game is @ UCF this year). Memphis has 7.8 chance of winning out. If any of those 3 win out, the only one that has any chance in any fashion to top them is SDSU(who themselves has only a 28.5% chance of winning out).

If either USF or UCF wins out, SDSU has 0% chance to top them no matter what SDSU does, USF/UCF are 100% guaranteed the NY6 spot.

If SDSU and Memphis win out, or if Navy wins out and wins the AAC, or if UCF or USF lose a game but then still win the AAC, then it will come down to intangibles related to SOS, best win, worst loss, etc. In that case, if Stanford has a great year, that will help SDSU get the bid. If Stanford fades out, then the AAC champ will almost surely get it.

(10-20-2017 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2017 08:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing now with the AAC is they have 3 teams that will be very hard for even SDSU to beat(and SDSU would have the only chance and only there vs Memphis)- that have over a 50% chance of winning out combined. UCF right now has a 29.6% chance of winning out. USF has a 16.4% chance of winning out(only reason why numbers look like that is USF/UCF game is @ UCF this year). Memphis has 7.8 chance of winning out. If any of those 3 win out, the only one that has any chance in any fashion to top them is SDSU(who themselves has only a 28.5% chance of winning out).

If either USF or UCF wins out, SDSU has 0% chance to top them no matter what SDSU does, USF/UCF are 100% guaranteed the NY6 spot.

If SDSU and Memphis win out, or if Navy wins out and wins the AAC, or if UCF or USF lose a game but then still win the AAC, then it will come down to intangibles related to SOS, best win, worst loss, etc. In that case, if Stanford has a great year, that will help SDSU get the bid. If Stanford fades out, then the AAC champ will almost surely get it.

If Navy wins out(with a Memphis loss), they'd have it over SDSU due to the win over Notre Dame.

The AAC is sitting very pretty right now. SDSU is literally the only possible problem right now.

(10-20-2017 08:56 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-20-2017 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2017 08:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing now with the AAC is they have 3 teams that will be very hard for even SDSU to beat(and SDSU would have the only chance and only there vs Memphis)- that have over a 50% chance of winning out combined. UCF right now has a 29.6% chance of winning out. USF has a 16.4% chance of winning out(only reason why numbers look like that is USF/UCF game is @ UCF this year). Memphis has 7.8 chance of winning out. If any of those 3 win out, the only one that has any chance in any fashion to top them is SDSU(who themselves has only a 28.5% chance of winning out).

If either USF or UCF wins out, SDSU has 0% chance to top them no matter what SDSU does, USF/UCF are 100% guaranteed the NY6 spot.

If SDSU and Memphis win out, or if Navy wins out and wins the AAC, or if UCF or USF lose a game but then still win the AAC, then it will come down to intangibles related to SOS, best win, worst loss, etc. In that case, if Stanford has a great year, that will help SDSU get the bid. If Stanford fades out, then the AAC champ will almost surely get it.

If Navy wins out(with a Memphis loss), they'd have it over SDSU due to the win over Notre Dame.

That could be, but Notre Dame would have to be high-ranked at the time. If ND goes on a slide and loses to USC, NC State, Stanford, then Navy beating them will be no big deal.

Heck, if ND and Stanford keep winning, and if SDSU and Navy keep winning, the NY6 bid might be decided by Stanford vs Notre Dame on the last game of the season.

Navy is unique among the AAC contenders in that it is still possible for them to have a high-quality win over a P5 team.

(10-20-2017 11:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2017 08:56 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-20-2017 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2017 08:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing now with the AAC is they have 3 teams that will be very hard for even SDSU to beat(and SDSU would have the only chance and only there vs Memphis)- that have over a 50% chance of winning out combined. UCF right now has a 29.6% chance of winning out. USF has a 16.4% chance of winning out(only reason why numbers look like that is USF/UCF game is @ UCF this year). Memphis has 7.8 chance of winning out. If any of those 3 win out, the only one that has any chance in any fashion to top them is SDSU(who themselves has only a 28.5% chance of winning out).

If either USF or UCF wins out, SDSU has 0% chance to top them no matter what SDSU does, USF/UCF are 100% guaranteed the NY6 spot.

If SDSU and Memphis win out, or if Navy wins out and wins the AAC, or if UCF or USF lose a game but then still win the AAC, then it will come down to intangibles related to SOS, best win, worst loss, etc. In that case, if Stanford has a great year, that will help SDSU get the bid. If Stanford fades out, then the AAC champ will almost surely get it.

If Navy wins out(with a Memphis loss), they'd have it over SDSU due to the win over Notre Dame.

That could be, but Notre Dame would have to be high-ranked at the time. If ND goes on a slide and loses to USC, NC State, Stanford, then Navy beating them will be no big deal.

Heck, if ND and Stanford keep winning, and if SDSU and Navy keep winning, the NY6 bid might be decided by Stanford vs Notre Dame on the last game of the season.

Navy is unique among the AAC contenders in that it is still possible for them to have a high-quality win over a P5 team.

Your top win isn't the only determinent though. SDSU's problem is that's all they have. Navy would have as well a win over UCF/USF which is something that SDSU can not touch.

(10-20-2017 11:33 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-20-2017 11:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2017 08:56 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-20-2017 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2017 08:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing now with the AAC is they have 3 teams that will be very hard for even SDSU to beat(and SDSU would have the only chance and only there vs Memphis)- that have over a 50% chance of winning out combined. UCF right now has a 29.6% chance of winning out. USF has a 16.4% chance of winning out(only reason why numbers look like that is USF/UCF game is @ UCF this year). Memphis has 7.8 chance of winning out. If any of those 3 win out, the only one that has any chance in any fashion to top them is SDSU(who themselves has only a 28.5% chance of winning out).

If either USF or UCF wins out, SDSU has 0% chance to top them no matter what SDSU does, USF/UCF are 100% guaranteed the NY6 spot.

If SDSU and Memphis win out, or if Navy wins out and wins the AAC, or if UCF or USF lose a game but then still win the AAC, then it will come down to intangibles related to SOS, best win, worst loss, etc. In that case, if Stanford has a great year, that will help SDSU get the bid. If Stanford fades out, then the AAC champ will almost surely get it.

If Navy wins out(with a Memphis loss), they'd have it over SDSU due to the win over Notre Dame.

That could be, but Notre Dame would have to be high-ranked at the time. If ND goes on a slide and loses to USC, NC State, Stanford, then Navy beating them will be no big deal.

Heck, if ND and Stanford keep winning, and if SDSU and Navy keep winning, the NY6 bid might be decided by Stanford vs Notre Dame on the last game of the season.

Navy is unique among the AAC contenders in that it is still possible for them to have a high-quality win over a P5 team.

Your top win isn't the only determinent though. SDSU's problem is that's all they have. Navy would have as well a win over UCF/USF which is something that SDSU can not touch.

I don't think SDSU woul need to touch it. If Stanford goes on to beat Notre Dame and win the PAC title, a win by SDSU over the PAC Champ would easily overwhelm any wins Navy has within the AAC, there wouldn't be any comparison there.

Particularly because the AAC as a whole doesn't have any significant P5 wins. AAC resumes right now are solely built on wins versus bad P5, G5, and other AAC teams.

Odds are FAR greater that Stanford finishes 7-5 than they are they go 12-1. Sorry but that's the fact of the matter.

(10-20-2017 12:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Odds are FAR greater that Stanford finishes 7-5 than they are they go 12-1. Sorry but that's the fact of the matter.

When I point out the obvious - that if Stanford wins out and ends up PAC champs, that will easily trump any achievement any AAC champ can have and will mean that only an AAC team with a better record than SDSU, meaning an unbeaten USF or UCF, will beat out SDSU for the NY6 slot - why is it that someone stubbornly resorts to saying that the chances that Stanford does win out are slim?

It's true, and irrelevant: We're talking about IF Stanford does win out. Not the odds of them actually winning out, which are, indeed, slim.

(10-18-2017 06:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-18-2017 02:34 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Here is Jerry Palm's latest prediction of the CFP committee first poll. I think it is pretty spot on and what the CFP has done traditionally.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...se-to-out/

Only G5 ranked is UCF at 23. USF and SDSU were dropped out of his previous rankings. I had USF spotted for 24 and SDSU for 25. We still have two weeks before the first poll, so it will change again. Especially if Navy beats UCF

If this is how the first CFP poll looks, it's a cold shower for those touting the AAC.

It won’t be. USF was the only one dropped after a win. USF added yet another win this week. Even Palm will have them back in this week. Every MW competitor has two loses at this point. Hard to see an way this doesn’t end with some AAC team in the access bowl.

(10-20-2017 11:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2017 08:56 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-20-2017 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2017 08:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing now with the AAC is they have 3 teams that will be very hard for even SDSU to beat(and SDSU would have the only chance and only there vs Memphis)- that have over a 50% chance of winning out combined. UCF right now has a 29.6% chance of winning out. USF has a 16.4% chance of winning out(only reason why numbers look like that is USF/UCF game is @ UCF this year). Memphis has 7.8 chance of winning out. If any of those 3 win out, the only one that has any chance in any fashion to top them is SDSU(who themselves has only a 28.5% chance of winning out).

If either USF or UCF wins out, SDSU has 0% chance to top them no matter what SDSU does, USF/UCF are 100% guaranteed the NY6 spot.

If SDSU and Memphis win out, or if Navy wins out and wins the AAC, or if UCF or USF lose a game but then still win the AAC, then it will come down to intangibles related to SOS, best win, worst loss, etc. In that case, if Stanford has a great year, that will help SDSU get the bid. If Stanford fades out, then the AAC champ will almost surely get it.

If Navy wins out(with a Memphis loss), they'd have it over SDSU due to the win over Notre Dame.

That could be, but Notre Dame would have to be high-ranked at the time. If ND goes on a slide and loses to USC, NC State, Stanford, then Navy beating them will be no big deal.

Heck, if ND and Stanford keep winning, and if SDSU and Navy keep winning, the NY6 bid might be decided by Stanford vs Notre Dame on the last game of the season.

Navy is unique among the AAC contenders in that it is still possible for them to have a high-quality win over a P5 team.

None of that isn’t going to matter this year. There is going to be a team with zero or one loss still standing and that’s going to be the default pick. Navy blue s going to irrelevant unless they can win the the West Division—which is looking unlikely at this point,

It's close to over quite frankly. I mean USF and UCF both have 1 even remotely losable game before their clash end of season- meaning 1 of them guaranteed will be 10-1 worst case in the CCG. Memphis has 1 tough game left(SMU) and even if they lose that- they get in the CCG with 1 SMU loss(and SMU gets Navy and UCF late in the season).

Yes, with SDSU losing again, it's a near certainty that the AAC champ will get the NY6 bid.

(10-22-2017 08:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Yes, with SDSU losing again, it's a near certainty that the AAC champ will get the NY6 bid.

Agree, it would take a serious meltdown to change that.

When does the committee put out their top 25. I'll be curious to know how much SOS is going to be a factor for the AAC schools.
USF hasn't played a team with a .500 record until Tulane.

Unless the AAC totally meltdowns, the prize is theirs. Only team that has a prayer left currently is one loss Marshall. It probably would likely have to be a 2 and maybe a three loss AAC champ for them to have a shot. I just don't see that happening with UCF, Memphis and USF, still that is why the play the games.

(10-22-2017 09:23 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  When does the committee put out their top 25. I'll be curious to know how much SOS is going to be a factor for the AAC schools.
USF hasn't played a team with a .500 record until Tulane.

the problem though is that USF has only 1 more losable game before playing UCF. That's with Houston. So they would worst case be 9-1 heading into the UCF game. 11-1 for them they are a lock vs any MWC team(all of them have 2 losses right now).

Right now there's a 56.6% chance that 1 of UCF, USF, and Memphis win out. And while I don't know the exact number- the odds are probably very strong that UCF or USF could lose 1 of these next few games- but beat the other- and be a 1 loss AAC champion.

If Memphis wins out thru the CCG- it's almost impossible to see a scenario where the AAC doesn't get the spot. And their chances per game- 78.9%, 66.7%(@ Tulsa), 72%, 95%.