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Top G5 Champ To Be in Either Peach or Fiesta
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stever20 Online
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Post: #91
RE: Top G5 Champ To Be in Either Peach or Fiesta
(10-17-2017 10:20 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 07:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 07:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 11:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 10:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I agree with your reasoning but not necessarily the conclusion. If Memphis wins out, including beating an undefeated USF or UCF, they will get the NY6 bid - unless SDSU wins out and Stanford is highly-ranked at the end of the season. Memphis's problem will be they have no quality OOC wins, and SDSU > Stanford will trump beating USF or UCF, who themselves have no quality OOC wins.

Sorry but Stanford wouldn't trump in any fashion beating an undefeated team in the CCG. It would be viewed by all as a defacto play-in game for the G5 slot.

If Stanford wins out, they will be the PAC champion. Having beaten them will easily trump beating an unbeaten G5 team with no significant P5 skins on its wall, so i think you're wrong about this, but maybe we'll get to see. 07-coffee3

we'll know pretty soon as if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be almost impossible for SDSU to catch up. Memphis would have their best win yet to come, while at best SDSU would have a win over a 2 loss team left.

Of course, I expect UCF/USF to win it- so it'll be a moot point. No chance in the world that either of those get passed up for SDSU. Absolutely none.

Stever, i believe you are overlooking one important fact. SDSU does not have to pass up anybody. The first CFP commmittee rankings have not been made.

It is important to remember the committee members rankings will not be dictated by the current poll rankings. They will think for themselves.

that's why I said that if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be really hard for SDSU to pass them back up. SDSU has left the #116 SOS. They have 4 of the worst 32 teams left after this weekend. And Boise probably won't be ranked in the ratings- so no help there for the CCG.
10-17-2017 02:36 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #92
RE: Top G5 Champ To Be in Either Peach or Fiesta
(10-17-2017 02:13 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  S20,
Really surprising, normally you are pretty reasonable but it looks like you have been drinking AAC kool-aid. When the CFP was designed, they stated it took the entire season into account which is different from how the AP and Coaches poll was done. Much like the NCAA does. AAC East is as bad as the MWC west. It very likely there will be only two teams with a winning record in the AAC east. Again, I am not disagreeing that USF/UCF don't have the inside track to the G5 championship but rankings today mean nothing. Until the first CFP poll comes out, no one is ranked. My guess is you will see UCF, USF and SDSU in the 20-25 range. Memphis may or may not be in there on the first CFP Poll. I feel pretty confident is saying this, if UCF loses to Navy, they probably will not be in the first CFP poll. I don't have a vote in the CFP but my order would be

UCF
USF
SDSU
Memphis
------------
Navy and Marshall on the outside looking in at the moment.

looking at Sagarin-
AAC East 63.79
MWC West 59.82

AAC East is far closer to the MWC Mountain than they are the MWC West.
10-17-2017 02:41 PM
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SMUmustangs Offline
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Post: #93
RE: Top G5 Champ To Be in Either Peach or Fiesta
(10-17-2017 02:36 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 10:20 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 07:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 07:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 11:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Sorry but Stanford wouldn't trump in any fashion beating an undefeated team in the CCG. It would be viewed by all as a defacto play-in game for the G5 slot.

If Stanford wins out, they will be the PAC champion. Having beaten them will easily trump beating an unbeaten G5 team with no significant P5 skins on its wall, so i think you're wrong about this, but maybe we'll get to see. 07-coffee3

we'll know pretty soon as if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be almost impossible for SDSU to catch up. Memphis would have their best win yet to come, while at best SDSU would have a win over a 2 loss team left.

Of course, I expect UCF/USF to win it- so it'll be a moot point. No chance in the world that either of those get passed up for SDSU. Absolutely none.

Stever, i believe you are overlooking one important fact. SDSU does not have to pass up anybody. The first CFP commmittee rankings have not been made.

It is important to remember the committee members rankings will not be dictated by the current poll rankings. They will think for themselves.

that's why I said that if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be really hard for SDSU to pass them back up. SDSU has left the #116 SOS. They have 4 of the worst 32 teams left after this weekend. And Boise probably won't be ranked in the ratings- so no help there for the CCG.

My post was referring to your last statement "that no chance in the world that either (UCF or USF) get passed up for SDSU."
10-17-2017 03:14 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #94
RE: Top G5 Champ To Be in Either Peach or Fiesta
(10-17-2017 03:14 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 02:36 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 10:20 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 07:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 07:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  If Stanford wins out, they will be the PAC champion. Having beaten them will easily trump beating an unbeaten G5 team with no significant P5 skins on its wall, so i think you're wrong about this, but maybe we'll get to see. 07-coffee3

we'll know pretty soon as if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be almost impossible for SDSU to catch up. Memphis would have their best win yet to come, while at best SDSU would have a win over a 2 loss team left.

Of course, I expect UCF/USF to win it- so it'll be a moot point. No chance in the world that either of those get passed up for SDSU. Absolutely none.

Stever, i believe you are overlooking one important fact. SDSU does not have to pass up anybody. The first CFP commmittee rankings have not been made.

It is important to remember the committee members rankings will not be dictated by the current poll rankings. They will think for themselves.

that's why I said that if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be really hard for SDSU to pass them back up. SDSU has left the #116 SOS. They have 4 of the worst 32 teams left after this weekend. And Boise probably won't be ranked in the ratings- so no help there for the CCG.

My post was referring to your last statement "that no chance in the world that either (UCF or USF) get passed up for SDSU."

There is no chance. If UCF or USF win out, they are the G5 rep. That's a guarantee.
10-17-2017 03:19 PM
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SMUmustangs Offline
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Post: #95
RE: Top G5 Champ To Be in Either Peach or Fiesta
(10-17-2017 03:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 03:14 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 02:36 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 10:20 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 07:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  we'll know pretty soon as if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be almost impossible for SDSU to catch up. Memphis would have their best win yet to come, while at best SDSU would have a win over a 2 loss team left.

Of course, I expect UCF/USF to win it- so it'll be a moot point. No chance in the world that either of those get passed up for SDSU. Absolutely none.

Stever, i believe you are overlooking one important fact. SDSU does not have to pass up anybody. The first CFP commmittee rankings have not been made.

It is important to remember the committee members rankings will not be dictated by the current poll rankings. They will think for themselves.

that's why I said that if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be really hard for SDSU to pass them back up. SDSU has left the #116 SOS. They have 4 of the worst 32 teams left after this weekend. And Boise probably won't be ranked in the ratings- so no help there for the CCG.

My post was referring to your last statement "that no chance in the world that either (UCF or USF) get passed up for SDSU."

There is no chance. If UCF or USF win out, they are the G5 rep. That's a guarantee.

But can you guarantee they will win out? And I still say they do not have to pass up anybody until we see the results of the next few games and the first committee rankings.
(This post was last modified: 10-17-2017 07:51 PM by SMUmustangs.)
10-17-2017 03:46 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #96
RE: Top G5 Champ To Be in Either Peach or Fiesta
(10-17-2017 02:31 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 01:46 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 10:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 10:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 08:52 AM)stever20 Wrote:  what matters to a team though far more late in the season is what game you are adding. If Memphis is adding an undefeated ranked USF/UCF team while SDSU is adding a 2 loss unranked Boise team- Memphis won't get passed up by SDSU.
passed up by SDSU.

Not necessarily what 'game' you are adding, but what achievement you are adding. Like if UCF beats Memphis in the AAC title game, the win over Memphis isn't as important as the fact that they are now the AAC Champion. That's the bigger achievement among the two.

Stanford wins the PAC, and now what you are adding to SDSU's resume is ... a win over the PAC Champion.

No, like if Memphis beats UCF(or USF) in the AAC title game, Memphis will be adding a win over a previously undefeated top 15 team. That means FAR more than SDSU adding a title for an opponent. While SDSU would get a little bit more credit for the Stanford win, Memphis would be gaining full credit for a new top 15 win. A full top 15 win means far more.

And Stanford is FAR more likely btw to finish the season 7-5 than they are to be Pac 12 champions.

SDSU would be wise to be huge Houston fans on Thursday night this week. It's Memphis final test this year before the CCG. SDSU does not want 11-0 UCF/USF vs 11-1 Memphis at all. I think they would tell you that themselves.

I think you are misinterpreting what the CFP is likely to find important. Beating a Top 15 G5 school just doesn't carry the same weight as beating a Top 15 P5 team. We know that, because the former will drop farther than the latter. There isn't the same perceived weightiness, that's why when G5 enter the rankings, it takes longer for them to rise, and quicker for them to fall, especially when all their accomplishments are versus other G5 teams.

In contrast, having beaten a P5 champ will be viewed far more weightily by the committee. I mean, you really can't top that if you are a G5.

It's just extremely unlikely that when the CFP meets the final time to make its decisions that "Memphis beat previously #11, now #17 USF" will trump "SDSU beat #7 PAC 12 Champ Stanford". That won't be close.

That said, of course, SDSU would like things to be as favorable as possible, so sure, they want the team that faces an unbeaten UCF or USF in the AAC title game to have as many losses as possible so that if they win, they won't be seen as favorably. But we're talking about a specific 'what if' situation.
The thing is, going into that final week- SDSU would have had almost all of the impact of their Stanford win realized. Memphis would have had absolutely NONE of their win over USF/UCF realized yet. So if Memphis was ahead of SDSU before the CCG week, Memphis beating USF/UCF would matter far more than the combination of SDSU beating Boise, and prior SDSU opponent Stanford getting the P12 championship. The committee will have already considered the Stanford win in the weeks leading up to the final game. They won't have considered the USF/UCF win for Memphis because it wouldn't have happened yet.

But, the one thing about SDSU's win over Stanford that will not have been realized yet is ... Stanford becoming the PAC Champion. And I bet that's likely to be very important.

Remember, the NY6 bid is ultimately about allowing one G5 team to pit itself against an elite P5 team in a major bowl. So the CFP is trying to determine which G5 champ is most worthy of that. A G5 champ that has actually beaten a P5 champ is therefore likely to have a major edge over a team, like Memphis in your example, with no significant accomplishments vis-a-vis the P5 whatsoever, whose entire resume value is based on beating other G5.

That's one reason why Navy is important: It will help Memphis if Navy goes on to beat a high-ranked Notre Dame team, because then they can say "well, we beat Navy, who beat Notre Dame". That would be one way to link Memphis, even indirectly, to a big win over a P5 team. Beating USF or UCF alone won't do it, as they have no P5 accomplishments either.
(This post was last modified: 10-17-2017 04:22 PM by quo vadis.)
10-17-2017 04:19 PM
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Post: #97
RE: Top G5 Champ To Be in Either Peach or Fiesta
Here is Jerry Palm's latest prediction of the CFP committee first poll. I think it is pretty spot on and what the CFP has done traditionally.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...se-to-out/

Only G5 ranked is UCF at 23. USF and SDSU were dropped out of his previous rankings. I had USF spotted for 24 and SDSU for 25. We still have two weeks before the first poll, so it will change again. Especially if Navy beats UCF
10-18-2017 02:34 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #98
RE: Top G5 Champ To Be in Either Peach or Fiesta
(10-18-2017 02:34 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Here is Jerry Palm's latest prediction of the CFP committee first poll. I think it is pretty spot on and what the CFP has done traditionally.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...se-to-out/

Only G5 ranked is UCF at 23. USF and SDSU were dropped out of his previous rankings. I had USF spotted for 24 and SDSU for 25. We still have two weeks before the first poll, so it will change again. Especially if Navy beats UCF

If this is how the first CFP poll looks, it's a cold shower for those touting the AAC. 07-coffee3
10-18-2017 06:34 PM
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sierrajip Offline
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Post: #99
RE: Top G5 Champ To Be in Either Peach or Fiesta
Not to the Fiesta, please.
Today 01:09 AM
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