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stever20 Offline
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Post: #31
RE: MLB 2018 Hot Stove Thread
(11-02-2017 12:56 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Same old Angels: Five years and $106 million for a 30-year-old outfielder.

thing is he wasn't going to opt out of the deal- so by doing it like this they got a bit of flexibility.

1 thing that's bad for the Angels is their interleague schedule is so much tougher next year. Instead of getting the NL east, they get the NL west next year. 14 games vs LA, Colorado, and Arizona. Avg opponent next year interleague- 87-75(it's actually closer to 87.5). Last year- it was 83-79. Huge difference there.
11-04-2017 01:20 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #32
RE: MLB 2018 Hot Stove Thread
this year I think may be one of the worst FA classes i ever can remember...

When Yu Darvish is the top FA- it's not a good class at all. Love guys like Dave Cameron calling him one of the top pitchers. When he's NEVER been a top 10 guy in any season. Sorry but if you've never been a top 10 guy, you aren't one of the top pitchers..
11-13-2017 02:26 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #33
RE: MLB 2018 Hot Stove Thread
Agree re Darvish, and while I think the Dodgers will likely make him an offer, it's unlikely to be near the years and/or amount that others will be willing to pay.

Meanwhile, bringing something over from the season thread...
(11-03-2017 11:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Dodgers still have a lot of dead weight in '18. Adrian Gonzalez with 22.36 million. Brandon McCarthy who was radioactive in the World Series- 11.5 million. Scott Kazmir 17.67 million.

according to BR they're at 202 million right now. So that number is already over the luxury tax. So they will have go pay I guess 20% more than anything they sign. So a guy for 10 million is now 12 million. (might be more as not sure where they are on the number of times offender. IF it's 3 times it's 50%). That's going to get prohibitive.

Not sure what's in that BR $202MM, but Dodgers are at about $155MM right now, with another likely $40MM in arbitration and free agent signings for guys they're likely to retain. A little less than $200MM but, for the sake of argument, close enough. Dodgers are a multiple time offender and you can't get off that list until you get below the luxury tax threshold for a year. They're not going to go over $237MM because that's when your draft pick slides back 10 spots, so I think that's the limit. They might be able to slide one big FA in there but, as noted, I'm not sure there's much in that high end FA market. Several of the better candidates (Arrieta, Cain) were given QOs and there's no way the Dodgers will give up draft picks to sign a FA, so those guys are out. The other big-ish name is JD Martinez and he wants $200MM. No way Dodgers go for that. At this point I'm going to double down on my post (in the other thread) that Dodgers will target key trades and supplement with strategic, low key FAs. They'll be all over Otani, but they can only give him a bonus of $300K and the Rangers and Yankees can both go over $3MM. I think it's a pretty slim chance they get him unless they sign Darvish, but that's kind of a slim chance as well, so... seems unlikely Otani will be in LA.
(This post was last modified: 11-13-2017 05:54 PM by Brookes Owl.)
11-13-2017 05:52 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: MLB 2018 Hot Stove Thread
(11-13-2017 05:52 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Agree re Darvish, and while I think the Dodgers will likely make him an offer, it's unlikely to be near the years and/or amount that others will be willing to pay.

Meanwhile, bringing something over from the season thread...
(11-03-2017 11:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Dodgers still have a lot of dead weight in '18. Adrian Gonzalez with 22.36 million. Brandon McCarthy who was radioactive in the World Series- 11.5 million. Scott Kazmir 17.67 million.

according to BR they're at 202 million right now. So that number is already over the luxury tax. So they will have go pay I guess 20% more than anything they sign. So a guy for 10 million is now 12 million. (might be more as not sure where they are on the number of times offender. IF it's 3 times it's 50%). That's going to get prohibitive.

Not sure what's in that BR $202MM, but Dodgers are at about $155MM right now, with another likely $40MM in arbitration and free agent signings for guys they're likely to retain. A little less than $200MM but, for the sake of argument, close enough. Dodgers are a multiple time offender and you can't get off that list until you get below the luxury tax threshold for a year. They're not going to go over $237MM because that's when your draft pick slides back 10 spots, so I think that's the limit. They might be able to slide one big FA in there but, as noted, I'm not sure there's much in that high end FA market. Several of the better candidates (Arrieta, Cain) were given QOs and there's no way the Dodgers will give up draft picks to sign a FA, so those guys are out. The other big-ish name is JD Martinez and he wants $200MM. No way Dodgers go for that. At this point I'm going to double down on my post (in the other thread) that Dodgers will target key trades and supplement with strategic, low key FAs. They'll be all over Otani, but they can only give him a bonus of $300K and the Rangers and Yankees can both go over $3MM. I think it's a pretty slim chance they get him unless they sign Darvish, but that's kind of a slim chance as well, so... seems unlikely Otani will be in LA.

The 202 includes everything- the arbitration estimates, buyouts, etc.

They have the Dodgers now at 161.76 in guaranteed contracts
Kershaw 35.6
Gonzalez 22.36
Jansen 10.8
Turner 12
McCarthy 11.5
Kazmir 17.67
Hill 16.67
Puig 9.21
Ryu 7.83
Maeda 3.12
Arrubarrena 6.5
Forsythe 8.5

then another 23.47 in buyouts etc.

Then another 26.3 in arbitration estimates. And 3.03 in player costs to get up to just a 25 man roster.

All told it's now 214.5 million.
11-13-2017 06:13 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #35
RE: MLB 2018 Hot Stove Thread
swoosh, how are you feeling about that Stanton deal? As a Dodger fan, I think I like it. Stanton as a Dodger would be great but I don't think it is realistic with the competitive balance tax. Watching the Giants take on all (or nearly) his salary, giving up Panik and prospects (from an already kind of depleted farm system) makes me think: 1) they'll improve but not to top 3 in the division, and 2) they'll be payrolled out of the (huge) 2018 free agent market.

Go get 'im!
11-30-2017 11:21 PM
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nbcards Offline
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Post: #36
RE: MLB 2018 Hot Stove Thread
Marlins agree to framework deal for Stanton to Giants and Cards. Sounds like the ball is in Stanton's court now.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/m...iants.html
12-03-2017 04:38 PM
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Lush Offline
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Post: #37
RE: MLB 2018 Hot Stove Thread
12-07-2017 11:45 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #38
RE: MLB 2018 Hot Stove Thread
Stanton going to the Yankees...

Makes you wonder with the Nats if they have a really good shot to keep Harper now.
12-09-2017 11:42 AM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #39
RE: MLB 2018 Hot Stove Thread
Barring injury, Stanton should easily join the list of players who have hit 200+ HR for teams in both leagues.

There are no active players on that list. Carlos Beltran joined the list last year before his retirement -- he hit his 200th and final home run as an AL player on August 16th.

I was surprised when I looked it up to see that Pujols has not yet hit 200 HR for the Angels. He might not make it in 2018 (he needs 31 to reach 200 with the Angels) if Ohtani gets a lot of the Angels' DH plate appearances.

Those of us who are getting older will remember when Frank Robinson was the only player on the 200-200 list.
12-09-2017 12:56 PM
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Lush Offline
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Post: #40
RE: MLB 2018 Hot Stove Thread
(12-09-2017 12:56 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Barring injury, Stanton should easily join the list of players who have hit 200+ HR for teams in both leagues.

There are no active players on that list. Carlos Beltran joined the list last year before his retirement -- he hit his 200th and final home run as an AL player on August 16th.

I was surprised when I looked it up to see that Pujols has not yet hit 200 HR for the Angels. He might not make it in 2018 (he needs 31 to reach 200 with the Angels) if Ohtani gets a lot of the Angels' DH plate appearances.

Those of us who are getting older will remember when Frank Robinson was the only player on the 200-200 list.

and mvp's
12-09-2017 03:03 PM
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