https://meangreennation.com/2017-southern-miss-preview/

(I finally remembered my pw for this thing. Did you notice that you never get an email to reset your pw? Feels like we are on a ghost ship)

Nice job. Not too homerish, and a lot of your facts are correct. The winner, however, will score in the high twenties.

A lot of "last year this and last year that". Last year will look nothing like this year. This USM team has very little resemblance to the one that played in Denton last year.
Also the danger of comparing blowout scores is flawed. Hopson will not run up a score on anyone. He's just not that guy.

(09-29-2017 08:33 AM)SoMs Eagle Wrote:  A lot of "last year this and last year that". Last year will look nothing like this year. This USM team has very little resemblance to the one that played in Denton last year.
Also the danger of comparing blowout scores is flawed. Hopson will not run up a score on anyone. He's just not that guy.

That’s fair, but I consider that using last year as a data point is useful in how the USM staff approached defending/attacking NT. North Texas was able to run in 2016 when that was about all we could do successfully.

The Eagles have a lot of the same secondary and the defensive scheme is the same so it isn’t completely wasteful to take a peek at last year for perspective.

UTSA scored much easier on Southern than did Southern Miss. NT scored much easier on Lamar, too. Those aren’t great predictors but they give me a little insight.

(09-29-2017 08:57 AM)MGNation Wrote:  

(09-29-2017 08:33 AM)SoMs Eagle Wrote:  A lot of "last year this and last year that". Last year will look nothing like this year. This USM team has very little resemblance to the one that played in Denton last year.
Also the danger of comparing blowout scores is flawed. Hopson will not run up a score on anyone. He's just not that guy.

That’s fair, but I consider that using last year as a data point is useful in how the USM staff approached defending/attacking NT. North Texas was able to run in 2016 when that was about all we could do successfully.

The Eagles have a lot of the same secondary and the defensive scheme is the same so it isn’t completely wasteful to take a peek at last year for perspective.

UTSA scored much easier on Southern than did Southern Miss. NT scored much easier on Lamar, too. Those aren’t great predictors but they give me a little insight.

They can be misleading in the fact we have a D-line that is 20-30 lbs per man heavier than last year. We have different LB's that have more speed and athleticism. We have 8 Sr.'s in our Defensive Backfield. This is year 2 of Hopson's system at USM and players are buying in. You guys see the same thing with your coaches offensive scheme. Last year when we played you we had a true freshman QB in his first game in college that threw 3 Int.'s and fumbled once, and we still almost won. USM out gained you, more first downs, more time of possession. I think UNT is a much improved offensive team but I thing D wins this game.

(09-29-2017 08:57 AM)MGNation Wrote:  

(09-29-2017 08:33 AM)SoMs Eagle Wrote:  A lot of "last year this and last year that". Last year will look nothing like this year. This USM team has very little resemblance to the one that played in Denton last year.
Also the danger of comparing blowout scores is flawed. Hopson will not run up a score on anyone. He's just not that guy.

That’s fair, but I consider that using last year as a data point is useful in how the USM staff approached defending/attacking NT. North Texas was able to run in 2016 when that was about all we could do successfully.

The Eagles have a lot of the same secondary and the defensive scheme is the same so it isn’t completely wasteful to take a peek at last year for perspective.

UTSA scored much easier on Southern than did Southern Miss. NT scored much easier on Lamar, too. Those aren’t great predictors but they give me a little insight.

We'll go back to last year if you want. Compare USMs Dline that played last year with the one that will play this year. The difference in size and depth is staggering. QB efficiency is a quantum leap in difference. RB depth is a plus this year where as nonexistent last. We won't be one dimensional this year. We 'shouldn't' turn the ball over with santa clause efficiency. As for 'ease of scoring', who cares.

Those are good points which is why I just used last year as a datapoint and not the entire basis for comparison. I did say “last year NT feasted on turnovers”.

I mentioned the big DLine for USM. I mentioned that experienced secondary. I even picked USM to win.

I still think So Miss has played some weaker competition and that this offense should be the most explosive they’ve faced thus far. Also, I don’t know that Iowa’s defense is worse than USM’s in talent. They slowed NT but Mason Fine wasn’t as accurate as he has been against SMU and UAB throwing deep.

It should be fun. The best chance NT has is of forcing bad throws from Griggs — that deep ball is questionable — and hoping for enough imcompletions. AJ Erdely threw for a career high against us so I’m not overly hopeful.

(09-29-2017 09:15 AM)SoMs Eagle Wrote:  

(09-29-2017 08:57 AM)MGNation Wrote:  

(09-29-2017 08:33 AM)SoMs Eagle Wrote:  A lot of "last year this and last year that". Last year will look nothing like this year. This USM team has very little resemblance to the one that played in Denton last year.
Also the danger of comparing blowout scores is flawed. Hopson will not run up a score on anyone. He's just not that guy.

That’s fair, but I consider that using last year as a data point is useful in how the USM staff approached defending/attacking NT. North Texas was able to run in 2016 when that was about all we could do successfully.

The Eagles have a lot of the same secondary and the defensive scheme is the same so it isn’t completely wasteful to take a peek at last year for perspective.

UTSA scored much easier on Southern than did Southern Miss. NT scored much easier on Lamar, too. Those aren’t great predictors but they give me a little insight.

We'll go back to last year if you want. Compare USMs Dline that played last year with the one that will play this year. The difference in size and depth is staggering. QB efficiency is a quantum leap in difference. RB depth is a plus this year where as nonexistent last. We won't be one dimensional this year. We 'shouldn't' turn the ball over with santa clause efficiency. As for 'ease of scoring', who cares.

I sure hope our North Texas team doesn't read "homer" posts like this one. They may want to forfeit the game to USM.

A lot of people seem to forget that neither Wilson nor Fine played last year against Southern Miss.

I'm not gonna say UNT wins, but the consistency at QB and RB this year is significantly better. If we can shore up our defensive mistakes it'll be a good game.

(09-29-2017 02:37 AM)MGNation Wrote:  https://meangreennation.com/2017-southern-miss-preview/

(I finally remembered my pw for this thing. Did you notice that you never get an email to reset your pw? Feels like we are on a ghost ship)

Enjoyed reading, thanks for sharing. Personally thought you were objective outlining strengths and weakness for both teams. Anyone taking issue should write a blog and try to stay as neutral. Well done sir.

Early games are difficult to measure a team. As I've said many times, some play cream puffs and some play up. Just look at what Bama did to that #1 Vanderbilt defense. This game should be interesting. At conclusion we'll have better knowledge how each will perform going into conference play.

No doubt it should be a good game, and the usual things will decide who wins or loses. We had 125 yards in penalties, 7 dropped passes, 1 interception, 4 dropped interceptions two weeks ago. We need to clean this up if we are to win against North Texas.

(09-29-2017 09:50 AM)MGNation92 Wrote:  A lot of people seem to forget that neither Wilson nor Fine played last year against Southern Miss.

I'm not gonna say UNT wins, but the consistency at QB and RB this year is significantly better. If we can shore up our defensive mistakes it'll be a good game.

I would also like to insert Kelvin Smith into the mix. Kelvin had a good game against UAB.

(09-29-2017 10:04 AM)Green Menace Wrote:  

(09-29-2017 09:50 AM)MGNation92 Wrote:  A lot of people seem to forget that neither Wilson nor Fine played last year against Southern Miss.

I'm not gonna say UNT wins, but the consistency at QB and RB this year is significantly better. If we can shore up our defensive mistakes it'll be a good game.

I would also like to insert Kelvin Smith into the mix. Kelvin had a good game against UAB.

Absolutely. Smith should get the ball a lot more. I loved what he did against UAB

(09-29-2017 09:50 AM)MGNation92 Wrote:  A lot of people seem to forget that neither Wilson nor Fine played last year against Southern Miss.

I'm not gonna say UNT wins, but the consistency at QB and RB this year is significantly better. If we can shore up our defensive mistakes it'll be a good game.

Alot of people also forget that UNT was down like 50-14 to SMU, who isn't exactly a defensive juggernaut, before that "potent" offense scored some garbage time TDs.

USM by 14+, imo..

(09-29-2017 10:40 AM)correcamino Wrote:  Alot of people also forget that UNT was down like 50-14 to SMU, who isn't exactly a defensive juggernaut, before that "potent" offense scored some garbage time TDs.

USM by 14+, imo..

That's an oversimplification. The offense was moving the ball but couldn't convert short yardage. Yeah the TDs late were garbage time stuff, but that's not indicative of the overall potency of the offense. I mean, if we want to talk garbage time TDs, go back and look at UTSA v TxST 4th Qtr.

I addressed this topic here https://meangreennation.com/mgn-film-room-smu/

Also a bit here - https://meangreennation.com/offensive-im...-in-sl-y2/

Relevant portion:

Quote:And lest you think it was all during the SMU blowout — he tossed for 296 and 3 TDs with 2 INTs while down 15+, which is in total about a third of his production but also has 433 yards, 2 TDS and 0 picks when +/-7 or tied.

It's a good write-up. Southern Miss' offensive weakness is the OL. It's big and has talent, but hasn't jelled. Hopefully this week? If it gives Griggs time, he has the skills and the WRs (best ever group at Southern Miss?) to shred your Secondary. Our D makes big plays but also gives up big plays (not as often this year), due to it being very dependent on everyone keeping their assignment. I think our DBs will give your QB and WRs a stout challenge. If you can score quick and often that will get us out of our game and could lead to the upset.

And, in case you didn't notice, some Southern Miss fans can't be pleased unless you pick your team to lose in a bloodbath and concede that we are better in every facet of the game :) I personally think we will win big, but understand why many think it'll be close or even a NT win.

(09-29-2017 01:04 PM)Luckyshot Wrote:  It's a good write-up. Southern Miss' offensive weakness is the OL. It's big and has talent, but hasn't jelled. Hopefully this week? If it gives Griggs time, he has the skills and the WRs (best ever group at Southern Miss?) to shred your Secondary. Our D makes big plays but also gives up big plays (not as often this year), due to it being very dependent on everyone keeping their assignment. I think our DBs will give your QB and WRs a stout challenge. If you can score quick and often that will get us out of our game and could lead to the upset.

And, in case you didn't notice, some Southern Miss fans can't be pleased unless you pick your team to lose in a bloodbath and concede that we are better in every facet of the game :) I personally think we will win big, but understand why many think it'll be close or even a NT win.

Doesn't matter what they pick....we gonna win baby!

"the fact we have a D-line that is 20-30 lbs per man heavier than last year".

And slower, perhaps?? If they are slower, our running backs will have field day.

(09-29-2017 03:31 PM)Green Menace Wrote:  "the fact we have a D-line that is 20-30 lbs per man heavier than last year".

And slower, perhaps?? If they are slower, our running backs will have field day.

Yea, good luck with that run game

(09-29-2017 04:27 PM)TheChosenOne Wrote:  

(09-29-2017 03:31 PM)Green Menace Wrote:  "the fact we have a D-line that is 20-30 lbs per man heavier than last year".

And slower, perhaps?? If they are slower, our running backs will have field day.

Yea, good luck with that run game

You attending the game? O.K. Pay close attention to our running backs.