In my opinion, this is the biggest story to ever hit college athletics. I suspect the fallout will be far-reaching. I do not have any inside info, but this is how I see it play out.
We all suspect that recruiting in college football is largely corrupt. Everyone has heard tales about money exchanging hands (see Cam Newton and many others). However, in the past, the FBI was not involved. It's been the NCAA's show. The NCAA has been widely inconsistent in how to enforces rules and doles out punishments for major violators (SMU gets hammered, UNC walks). The NCAA takes a lot of criticism, and rightfully so, but people need to understand that the NCAA
is the schools it is governing. At least on some level, there are schools that are pretty influential within the NCAA. The big money makers seem to get off easier (a lot of the time) than the smaller players. Hence the old joke about how Kentucky (or any blue blood) is cheating, so Cleveland State is about to get hammered.
One way to rationalize how recent NCAA penalties, or lack of penalties, is that "management protects management." Miami, Syracuse and the like play by a different set of rules than a small conference school. For all the talk about integrity you see on the NCAA's website, there isn't much integrity in the lack of consistency with enforcement.
Enforcement is a huge issue for the NCAA since it has no enforcement mechanism. Its investigators cannot compel anyone to do anything. No subpoena power leaves it pretty neutered. That's certainly by design. Every NCAA case requires a ton of cooperation from member institutions. We've seen that the best way to beat an NCAA investigation is to not cooperate and lawyer up immediately. If you read Louisville message boards, their fans are mad that they even cooperated with the NCAA in their recent transgressions because they still lost their banner. That's a unique case because UL athletics had been put on notice and they still acted crazy. At least pretend that you aren't still cheating. UL essentially forced the NCAA's hand.
The FBI investigation is fascinating. They don't have the same deficiencies as an organization as the NCAA. Search warrants, wires taps, investigative grand juries...the threat of prosecution. It's the big leagues.
There are a lot of misconceptions about what the FBI is trying to accomplish. I've seen tons of chatter on this board and others. The FBI isn't trying to clean up college athletics. It's conducting a fraud investigation that is intersecting heavily into the world of college athletics. The fact that Andy Miller, a notable sports agent, has not been indicted should be very concerning to anyone coach or school that's ever interacted with him. He's likely cooperating as the media has suggested. Federal investigations generally move up the food chain, not down. So who does Miller have dirt on? Shoe executives? Other agents? We'll find out.
The big thing we as fans should be excited for is the criminal discovery that is produced from the upcoming trials. Thats when we'll see what the feds have as evidence, and essentially, who bought which recruits to what programs. I'd keep an eye on the trial dates, which are often continued (postponed) to a later date.
Another thing is how much does the FBI cooperate with the NCAA once judicial dispositions are reached for the defendants? Those two issues are huge.
The question I have is...if the NCAA gets access to the wiretaps and payment logs, what does it do with them? If the FBI provides evidence of blatant and egregious rules violations committed by the top blue bloods, how will the NCAA act? Does it have the will and even capacity to severely punish half of the top 50 in college basketball? Would concerns about important member institutions leaving the NCAA prevent the big fallout many of us hope for? There were pundits discussing the possibility of Notre Dame taking its ball and going home to form a new association after the recent ruling that came down against them.
I'm curious to see what the consequences will be. Also, if I'm Mick, I'm hoping to land some talented recruits/transfers once university administrators react to the evidence the FBI produces. We've already seen UL go full nuclear on Petino. Even if the NCAA is somewhat impotent, college presidents don't always like it when their basketball coaches embarass the brand.
As long as UC isn't implicated, it'll be fun.
I'd imagine the only funny recruit we've had under Mick was Lance Stephenson.