(09-27-2017 12:57 PM)fanhood Wrote: (09-27-2017 10:55 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote: (09-27-2017 10:27 AM)fanhood Wrote: (09-26-2017 03:09 PM)k5james Wrote: (09-25-2017 10:58 AM)Cubanbull Wrote: LOL Thanks for finding it. I remember someone from that school posting that last week. Guess it didnt worked out as planned.
Looks like I was off by a week or two. Are you really celebrating the fact SDSU didn't pass USF after four weeks?
USF/AAC FAN should be worried. SDSU had a 4 point win on CBSSN vs AFA while USF had a 36 point win vs Temple on ESPN and SDSU still closed the gap on USF. SDSU closed the gap by 30 votes in the AP and just under 100 votes in the Coaches.
If SDSU keeps winning it's not a matter of if they pass USF but when.
Wow. It is funny, how funny those posters find this. It should be concerning to them how close the gap is, after we had a four point win on the road. Meanwhile USF won by a ton at Home.
SDSU will get in in front of USF if both are undefeated. It is as simple as that. The AAC fans would have a better argument with Memphis or Navy. But using their own logic of "once ahead you stay ahead" they would look hypocritical making that argument so they don't make them.
An undefeated Memphis or Navy vs an undefeated SDSU would be very close. I am not sure about UCF. I have not really looked at their schedule yet.
Remaining Strength of Schedule (from ESPN FPI):
USF 77
SDSU 112
From Massey, SoS played to date -> SoS full schedule:
USF 90-82
SDSU 33-87
That's not a recipe for overtaking.
You are right, though, recipe for overtaking SDSU looks like Navy's profile - SoS Remaining 64 vs your 112, such that Navy moves from 108 SoS to 68, nearly 20 spots higher
We agree on Navy (possibly Memphis as well).
Regarding the USF stuff, nobody outside of this board cares. They just see USF without quality wins, and SDSU with quality wins.
Okay, I was trying to keep it tight and focused, but we'll go back to big picture: In ESPN FPI's SoS remaining, every AAC team is ahead of SDSU. Every. One.
According to Massey, full SoS, SDSU is actually ahead of Connecticut. 11 AAC teams, including all the contenders have a stronger schedule than SDSU (stronger than Toledo and UTSA, too).
You are right that the CFP committee appears to look not so much at a single SoS calculation or where that ranks -- they look at quality wins as defining the body of work. As of now, that Stanford victory is a better quality win than anything any AAC contender has in their pocket. But that is far from a done deal....
Massey Composite Rankings as of week 4:
13 Notre Dame
17 USF
19 SDSU
26 Stanford
28 UCF
36 Navy
40 Houston
42 Memphis
50 UCLA
51 SMU
53 Maryland
57 Arizona State
61 Boise State
63 CSU
67 AF
71 N. Illinois
73 Arizona
If Stanford stumbles at all, numerous AAC wins will look just as strong.
Even without Stanford stumbling, as of today, USF over UCF would be a comparable quality win to Stanford. Anyone out of the west beating a 12-0 USF in ccg would get a quality win better than Stanford. Navy running the table would have ND and USF. Memphis running the table would have UCF, Navy, and USF.
Your Arizona State win compares badly to any number of AAC wins, or to the Terps for UCF or to UCLA for Memphis.
You could come up with different ways for there to be ALL 2- and 3-loss teams in the AAC, but there are also many paths to an AAC CCG matchup of 0- or 1-loss teams that will stay ahead of or leap SDSU.
Because of the weak remaining schedule SDSU is far, far, far from being in driver's seat for the NY6 bowl bid, even if Stanford stays strong.