Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
B1G is P5 Conference Comparison Champion!
Author Message
Hokie Mark Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 14,079
Joined: Sep 2011
Reputation: 533
I Root For: VT, ACC teams
Location: Charlotte, NC
Post: #21
RE: P5 Conference Comparison, Week 10 (11/12/17) ... SEC #1 for 10th straight week!
(11-12-2017 07:46 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Updated for 11/11 results.

You ask "my rankings continue to differ significantly from Sagarin and Massey Composite, both of which have the SEC at no better than #3. What am i missing?"

I think the answer is in the weighting - you are weighing super wins just a little too much. Try 1.8X and 1.3X instead (just a suggestion).
11-12-2017 08:18 AM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 25,781
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 548
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #22
RE: P5 Conference Comparison, Week 10 (11/12/17) ... SEC #1 for 10th straight week!
(11-12-2017 08:18 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(11-12-2017 07:46 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Updated for 11/11 results.

You ask "my rankings continue to differ significantly from Sagarin and Massey Composite, both of which have the SEC at no better than #3. What am i missing?"

I think the answer is in the weighting - you are weighing super wins just a little too much. Try 1.8X and 1.3X instead (just a suggestion).

Thanks for the suggestion. I could try that. BTW, my system is also under-valuing the ACC, since both Massey and Sagarin have the ACC at either #1 or #2, while I have the ACC at #4.

Then again, last year, my system had the ACC at #1 in the final tally *before* the bowl games, and at that time both Sagarin and Massey had the SEC #1 and the ACC at around #3. They didn't detect that the ACC was really the best until after the ACC had its great bowl season, but my system anticipated that. So maybe mine isn't the system in need of correcting, LOL.
(This post was last modified: 11-12-2017 09:58 AM by quo vadis.)
11-12-2017 09:56 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 25,781
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 548
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #23
RE: P5 Conference Comparison, Week 11 (11/19/17) ... SEC #1 for 11th straight week!
Updated for 11/18 results
11-19-2017 07:16 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 25,781
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 548
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #24
RE: P5 Conference Comparison, Week 11 (11/26/17) ... PAC is new #1!
Updates for 11/26 results.
11-27-2017 11:42 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
ken d Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 8,218
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation: 312
I Root For: college sports
Location: Raleigh
Post: #25
RE: P5 Conference Comparison, Week 12 (11/26/17) ... PAC is new #1!
(11-12-2017 09:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-12-2017 08:18 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(11-12-2017 07:46 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Updated for 11/11 results.

You ask "my rankings continue to differ significantly from Sagarin and Massey Composite, both of which have the SEC at no better than #3. What am i missing?"

I think the answer is in the weighting - you are weighing super wins just a little too much. Try 1.8X and 1.3X instead (just a suggestion).

Thanks for the suggestion. I could try that. BTW, my system is also under-valuing the ACC, since both Massey and Sagarin have the ACC at either #1 or #2, while I have the ACC at #4.

Then again, last year, my system had the ACC at #1 in the final tally *before* the bowl games, and at that time both Sagarin and Massey had the SEC #1 and the ACC at around #3. They didn't detect that the ACC was really the best until after the ACC had its great bowl season, but my system anticipated that. So maybe mine isn't the system in need of correcting, LOL.

The problem with all polls and rating systems is that they are always wrong - all of them. Every week, the AP publishes its ranking, and then more games are played. In effect, every week they are saying "we had it wrong last week, but these new rankings are better". It's only when there are no more games left to be played to prove us "wrong" once again that we etch them in stone.

But we have to at least pretend to believe the next to last ranking, because otherwise we have to acknowledge that maybe some other team should have been in the playoff after all. And we can't have that, can we? 04-cheers
11-27-2017 01:33 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 25,781
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 548
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #26
RE: B1G is P5 Conference Comparison Champion!
Updated for bowl results!
01-04-2018 10:04 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
goodknightfl Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 16,563
Joined: Feb 2004
Reputation: 225
I Root For:
Location:
Post: #27
RE: B1G is P5 Conference Comparison Champion!
(09-24-2017 08:23 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Bowl games cause a big shakeup in the final rankings. The biggest news is that the B1G, in third place before the bowls, vaults to the #1 position and the overall title thanks to a stellar 7-1 bowl record that featured two "super wins" by Wisconsin and Ohio State, and two more "quality wins" by Penn State and Michigan State. That gave the B1G an effective 10-1 bowl record, surging their overall rate from 46% to 62%.

In contrast, the PAC tumbles from #1 all the way to #4 thanks to a dismal 1-8 bowl season, which dropped their rating from 56% to 42%.

The third big mover was the Big 12, which had an excellent 6-2 bowl record, including "quality wins" over ranked teams by Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and TCU. The Big 12 goes from 38% to 52%, from 5th place to 3rd place.

Also, the ACC finishes in last place, thanks to a poor bowl season that saw their percentage fall from 46% to 41%, fourth place to fifth.

Finally, the SEC has a bizarro bowl season. By straight wins and losses, they will finish a poor 5-6. But the five wins include three "super wins" over top 10 opponents, so their win rate actually rises marginally, from 52% to 54%, still second place.

I have included the overall win rate first, then the regular season rate after.

That's a wrap for the 2017 season! Congratulations B1G!


Notes: The ACC gets no credit for FSU and Duke bowl wins, as they came against unranked G5 opponents. The SEC gets a "super win" and a "loss" for the result of the Georgia/Alabama title game.


Code:
CONFERENCE               WINS                     LOSSES                OVERALL RECORD    
  
1) B1G                I,P,MS*,O@,N,P*,W@       M                         20 - 12.5 (.615/.465)

2) SEC                M,S,G@,A@,A@             A,L,M,K,T,G              19 - 16 (.543/.523)

3) Big 12            TT,T,K,C*,OS*,I*               W,O                 14.5 - 13.5  (.518/.378)

4) PAC                 U                        O,U,Z,S,WS,W,S,A           12 - 16.5 (.421/.564)

5) ACC                N,W                        B,T,V,M,L,C             15 - 21.5 (.411/.456)

@ 2 win credit for "super win" (see Method)

* 1.5 win credit for "quality win"

# 1.5 loss credit for "bad loss"

& 2 loss credit for "awful loss"


METHOD

1) Only OOC games count.

2) Notre Dame is always regarded as a P5 opponent, including for ACC teams. BYU and Army are regarded as G5 opponents.

3) All references to "rankings" are to at the time the game was played.

4) How losses are assessed:

a) A conference is docked 1 loss for losing to any P5 opponent.

b) A conference is docked 1 loss for losing to any FCS or G5 opponent that is ranked in the Coaches or AP poll, including "others receiving votes".

c) A conference is docked 1.5 losses for losing to any unranked G5 opponent. This is a penalty for a "bad loss".

d) A conference is docked 2 losses for losing to any unranked FCS opponent, a penalty for an "awful loss".


5) How wins are earned:

a) A conference is credited with 1 win for any win against any unranked P5 opponent.

b) A conference gets credit for 1 win against an FCS or G5 opponent if the FCS or G5 opponent is ranked in the "others receiving votes" of the AP or Coaches polls.

c) A conference earns 1.5 wins for beating any team ranked between 11-25 in the AP or Coaches top 25. This is a bonus for a "quality win".

d) A conference earns 2 wins if the win is against any team ranked in the top 10 in either poll. This is a bonus for a "super" win.

6) Wins against unranked FCS or G5 earn no credit.

7) For bowl season, the following modifications apply:

- Rankings of bowl game opponents are based on CFP rankings only, save for rules that refer to "others receiving votes" above. For bowl games pitting P5 vs G5, all win and loss credit is earned according to rules 4b-c and 5c-d and 6 above, with CFP substituted for AP/Coaches. So for example, beating a CFP unranked G5 team still earns no credit for the P5 conference, but losing to an unranked G5 in a bowl game does mean it suffers the "bad" loss penalty. But, if the G5 bowl opponent is ranked in the "others receiving votes" of either the AP or Coaches poll, the P5 conference would get credit for 1 win (if they win the bowl game) or just 1 loss (if they lose the bowl game).

Yep they are the best of the ALL losers conf.
01-04-2018 10:47 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2018 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2018 MyBB Group.