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B1G is P5 Conference Comparison Champion!
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quo vadis Offline
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B1G is P5 Conference Comparison Champion!
Bowl games cause a big shakeup in the final rankings. The biggest news is that the B1G, in third place before the bowls, vaults to the #1 position and the overall title thanks to a stellar 7-1 bowl record that featured two "super wins" by Wisconsin and Ohio State, and two more "quality wins" by Penn State and Michigan State. That gave the B1G an effective 10-1 bowl record, surging their overall rate from 46% to 62%.

In contrast, the PAC tumbles from #1 all the way to #4 thanks to a dismal 1-8 bowl season, which dropped their rating from 56% to 42%.

The third big mover was the Big 12, which had an excellent 6-2 bowl record, including "quality wins" over ranked teams by Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and TCU. The Big 12 goes from 38% to 52%, from 5th place to 3rd place.

Also, the ACC finishes in last place, thanks to a poor bowl season that saw their percentage fall from 46% to 41%, fourth place to fifth.

Finally, the SEC has a bizarro bowl season. By straight wins and losses, they will finish a poor 5-6. But the five wins include three "super wins" over top 10 opponents, so their win rate actually rises marginally, from 52% to 54%, still second place.

I have included the overall win rate first, then the regular season rate after.

That's a wrap for the 2017 season! Congratulations B1G!


Notes: The ACC gets no credit for FSU and Duke bowl wins, as they came against unranked G5 opponents. The SEC gets a "super win" and a "loss" for the result of the Georgia/Alabama title game.


Code:
CONFERENCE               WINS                     LOSSES                OVERALL RECORD    
  
1) B1G                I,P,MS*,O@,N,P*,W@       M                         20 - 12.5 (.615/.465)

2) SEC                M,S,G@,A@,A@             A,L,M,K,T,G              19 - 16 (.543/.523)

3) Big 12            TT,T,K,C*,OS*,I*               W,O                 14.5 - 13.5  (.518/.378)

4) PAC                 U                        O,U,Z,S,WS,W,S,A           12 - 16.5 (.421/.564)

5) ACC                N,W                        B,T,V,M,L,C             15 - 21.5 (.411/.456)

@ 2 win credit for "super win" (see Method)

* 1.5 win credit for "quality win"

# 1.5 loss credit for "bad loss"

& 2 loss credit for "awful loss"


METHOD

1) Only OOC games count.

2) Notre Dame is always regarded as a P5 opponent, including for ACC teams. BYU and Army are regarded as G5 opponents.

3) All references to "rankings" are to at the time the game was played.

4) How losses are assessed:

a) A conference is docked 1 loss for losing to any P5 opponent.

b) A conference is docked 1 loss for losing to any FCS or G5 opponent that is ranked in the Coaches or AP poll, including "others receiving votes".

c) A conference is docked 1.5 losses for losing to any unranked G5 opponent. This is a penalty for a "bad loss".

d) A conference is docked 2 losses for losing to any unranked FCS opponent, a penalty for an "awful loss".


5) How wins are earned:

a) A conference is credited with 1 win for any win against any unranked P5 opponent.

b) A conference gets credit for 1 win against an FCS or G5 opponent if the FCS or G5 opponent is ranked in the "others receiving votes" of the AP or Coaches polls.

c) A conference earns 1.5 wins for beating any team ranked between 11-25 in the AP or Coaches top 25. This is a bonus for a "quality win".

d) A conference earns 2 wins if the win is against any team ranked in the top 10 in either poll. This is a bonus for a "super" win.

6) Wins against unranked FCS or G5 earn no credit.

7) For bowl season, the following modifications apply:

- Rankings of bowl game opponents are based on CFP rankings only, save for rules that refer to "others receiving votes" above. For bowl games pitting P5 vs G5, all win and loss credit is earned according to rules 4b-c and 5c-d and 6 above, with CFP substituted for AP/Coaches. So for example, beating a CFP unranked G5 team still earns no credit for the P5 conference, but losing to an unranked G5 in a bowl game does mean it suffers the "bad" loss penalty. But, if the G5 bowl opponent is ranked in the "others receiving votes" of either the AP or Coaches poll, the P5 conference would get credit for 1 win (if they win the bowl game) or just 1 loss (if they lose the bowl game).
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2018 10:03 AM by quo vadis.)
09-24-2017 08:23 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #2
RE: P5 Conference Comparison, Week 5 (10/1/17) ... SEC #1 for 4th straight week!
Updated for 9/30 results.
10-01-2017 08:07 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: P5 Conference Comparison, Week 6 (10/8/17) ... SEC #1 for 5th straight week!
Results updated for 10/7 games.
10-08-2017 07:51 AM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #4
RE: P5 Conference Comparison, Week 6 (10/8/17) ... SEC #1 for 5th straight week!
On a straight up basis, the Big Ten goes 8-6 in P5 nonconf games:

Indiana won at Virginia
Maryland won at Texas
Michigan won vs Florida (Cowboys Stadium)
Penn St won vs Pitt
Iowa won at Iowa St
Minnesota won at Oregon St
Purdue won at Missouri
Wisconsin won at BYU (counts in my book)

Michigan St lost vs Notre Dame
Ohio St lost vs Oklahoma
Rutgers lost vs Washington
Nebraska lost at Oregon
NW lost at Duke
Purdue lost vs Louisville (Colts Stadium)

(none played by Illinois)


That's what's matters to me. Not a bad P5NC slate for the ol boys.
10-08-2017 09:00 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: P5 Conference Comparison, Week 6 (10/8/17) ... SEC #1 for 5th straight week!
(10-08-2017 09:00 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  On a straight up basis, the Big Ten goes 8-6 in P5 nonconf games:

*****

That's what's matters to me. Not a bad P5NC slate for the ol boys.

Usually, my system produces results very close to the Massey Composite, but not right now. My P5CC has the SEC #1 and the B1G #3. Massey has the B1G #1 and the SEC #4.

I noticed that in those computers, LSU's loss to Troy had a huge impact on the SEC's ranking. Before that loss, the SEC was #1 in both Sagarin and the Massey Composite. After LSU lost to Troy, the SEC fell to 4th in Massey and 5th in Sagarin!

In my system, that loss definitely hurt the SEC, as it should have, but not enough even to knock it from #1, much less all the way down to 4th or 5th. I guess we'll see how it shakes out in the end. 07-coffee3
(This post was last modified: 10-10-2017 10:56 AM by quo vadis.)
10-10-2017 10:54 AM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #6
RE: P5 Conference Comparison, Week 6 (10/8/17) ... SEC #1 for 5th straight week!
Congratulations?
10-11-2017 04:54 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #7
RE: P5 Conference Comparison, Week 8 (10/22/17) ... SEC #1 for 7th straight week!
Updated for 10/21 results.
10-22-2017 08:48 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: P5 Conference Comparison, Week 9 (10/29/17) ... SEC #1 for 8th straight week!
Updated for 10/28 results.
10-29-2017 06:32 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: P5 Conference Comparison, Week 9 (11/5/17) ... SEC #1 for 9th straight week!
Updated for 11/4 results. [/align]
11-05-2017 11:30 AM
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Carolina_Low_Country Offline
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RE: P5 Conference Comparison, Week 9 (11/5/17) ... SEC #1 for 9th straight week!
It would be interesting to see what would happened if you plugged in the American conference this year.
11-06-2017 03:47 PM
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