Purely hypothetical thought piece.

Assume that the market for televised sports has collapsed and conferences are receiving effectively zero in net revenue from television, however miraculously each FBS school has developed its own new non-media income stream to replace the lost earnings.

Each school is in exactly the same budget position it was in before the TV collapse.

Further assume that exit fees are now zero but the bias in post-season opportunity in favor of conference membership still exists.

WHAT DOES EACH CONFERENCE LOOK LIKE IN THIS ECONOMIC MODEL?

Given your assumptions, I'm not sure there would be much change at all. That assumes that the biggest bias - the one that favors not expelling members once they are on board - remains intact.

You still have to have a situation where a school that wants to be in a different conference would be accepted by that conference. One possibility I could see would be West Virginia to the AAC, since money is no longer an object for them. They might prefer to be in a conference where travel isn't as great an issue. But, even here, if you look at distances from Morgantown to the rest of the ACC members, that's not as big a deal as it might seem.

What this could trigger, though, might be a breakup of the ACC, with both the East and West divisions adding more regional schools to create two separate conferences. If that happened, the attrition other G5 conferences would suffer would lead to more but smaller conferences.

As an example, the AAC West might evolve into an 8 team league:
Houston, Memphis, Tulsa, SMU, Tulane, Southern Miss, Rice and Louisiana Tech.

The AAC East might look like:
West Virginia, Cincinnati, Temple, UConn, East Carolina, Old Dominion, USF and UCF. This conference might also have Navy as a football only member.

Prestige might still be a big factor. WVU may opt to remain in the Big 12 simply for that reason alone. Also SOS is important too, and the Big 12 as-is beats any faction of the American.

arkstfan - in the AAC West scenario I suggested, is that something Arkansas State would be interested in, and would the other schools want to have them? They would seem to be a great geographic fit. I'm not aware of what the politics might be, though.

(09-21-2017 12:59 PM)ken d Wrote:  arkstfan - in the AAC West scenario I suggested, is that something Arkansas State would be interested in, and would the other schools want to have them? They would seem to be a great geographic fit. I'm not aware of what the politics might be, though.

Arkansas State is on it's second home/home deal with SMU, about to start a second home/home with Tulsa. Recently signed Memphis to a four game home/home and it is AState's most played series and Memphis' second most played series.

USM drew well last time we had a home and home so renewing the US 49 game would be well received.

Red Wolves would ink that deal in a heartbeat.

(09-21-2017 10:51 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Prestige might still be a big factor. WVU may opt to remain in the Big 12 simply for that reason alone. Also SOS is important too, and the Big 12 as-is beats any faction of the American.

Absolutely. There is no realistic scenario that ever finds WVU playing in the AAC, much less in the AAC instead of the Big XII.

I always have to laugh when someone tries to put WVU in the AAC. It'll never happen. NEVER.

It would mostly be the same as it is now. As long as certain schools refuse to be associated with others we'll end up with something that looks a lot like our 2017 reality.

LA Tech wants nothing to do with ULM
UAB wants nothing to do with Troy
The ACC wants nothing to do with ECU
The SEC wants nothing to do with Memphis
etc
etc
etc

(09-21-2017 02:33 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(09-21-2017 10:51 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Prestige might still be a big factor. WVU may opt to remain in the Big 12 simply for that reason alone. Also SOS is important too, and the Big 12 as-is beats any faction of the American.

Absolutely. There is no realistic scenario that ever finds WVU playing in the AAC, much less in the AAC instead of the Big XII.

I always have to laugh when someone tries to put WVU in the AAC. It'll never happen. NEVER.

There are a number of different, completely realistic, realignment scenarios where OU, KU, UT, +1 leave the B12. If that's the case the best teams from the B12 and AAC will merge. They might keep the B12 conference name, but at that point it may as well be AAC2.0.

(09-21-2017 10:03 AM)ken d Wrote:  Given your assumptions, I'm not sure there would be much change at all. That assumes that the biggest bias - the one that favors not expelling members once they are on board - remains intact.

You still have to have a situation where a school that wants to be in a different conference would be accepted by that conference. One possibility I could see would be West Virginia to the AAC, since money is no longer an object for them. They might prefer to be in a conference where travel isn't as great an issue. But, even here, if you look at distances from Morgantown to the rest of the ACC members, that's not as big a deal as it might seem.

What this could trigger, though, might be a breakup of the ACC, with both the East and West divisions adding more regional schools to create two separate conferences. If that happened, the attrition other G5 conferences would suffer would lead to more but smaller conferences.

As an example, the AAC West might evolve into an 8 team league:
Houston, Memphis, Tulsa, SMU, Tulane, Southern Miss, Rice and Louisiana Tech.

The AAC East might look like:
West Virginia, Cincinnati, Temple, UConn, East Carolina, Old Dominion, USF and UCF. This conference might also have Navy as a football only member.

I think you could have stopped at the first sentence. Money is essentially frozen and self contained. Conference membership prestige still drives the CFP access and bowl ties. There certainly would be no reason for any P5 to G5 movement. There is little reason for G5 to P5 movement. Perhaps a P5 here or there would pick up a G5 prgram if it would give them some sort competetive advantage in the CFP race---but beyond that---there is little to motivate conferences change. I doubt many current P5 programs would move because they are already in conferences with fairly coherent geography.

The only place I can see movement would be maybe between the Sunbelt and CUSA. Cutting travel costs would be the incentive and the movement would be considered generally lateral. The AAC and MW would likely see themselves as a step up (slight advantages in bowls and SOS for CFP purposes)---so no movement there (and no movement between the the AAC and MW as there would be no income increase to offset increased travel costs under the hypothetical). I guess if a P5 was quietly unhappy in thier present conference, they could move to whatever P5 they think is more advantageous---assuming the destination conference is inclined to take them.

I just dont see much movement at all.

(09-21-2017 04:28 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-21-2017 10:03 AM)ken d Wrote:  Given your assumptions, I'm not sure there would be much change at all. That assumes that the biggest bias - the one that favors not expelling members once they are on board - remains intact.

You still have to have a situation where a school that wants to be in a different conference would be accepted by that conference. One possibility I could see would be West Virginia to the AAC, since money is no longer an object for them. They might prefer to be in a conference where travel isn't as great an issue. But, even here, if you look at distances from Morgantown to the rest of the ACC members, that's not as big a deal as it might seem.

What this could trigger, though, might be a breakup of the ACC, with both the East and West divisions adding more regional schools to create two separate conferences. If that happened, the attrition other G5 conferences would suffer would lead to more but smaller conferences.

As an example, the AAC West might evolve into an 8 team league:
Houston, Memphis, Tulsa, SMU, Tulane, Southern Miss, Rice and Louisiana Tech.

The AAC East might look like:
West Virginia, Cincinnati, Temple, UConn, East Carolina, Old Dominion, USF and UCF. This conference might also have Navy as a football only member.

I think you could have stopped at the first sentence. Money is essentially frozen and self contained. Conference membership prestige still drives the CFP access and bowl ties. There certainly would be no reason for any P5 to G5 movement. There is little reason for G5 to P5 movement. Perhaps a P5 here or there would pick up a G5 prgram if it would give them some sort competetive advantage in the CFP race---but beyond that---there is little to motivate conferences change. I doubt many current P5 programs would move because they are already in conferences with fairly coherent geography.

The only place I can see movement would be maybe between the Sunbelt and CUSA. Cutting travel costs would be the incentive and the movement would be considered generally lateral. The AAC and MW would likely see themselves as a step up (slight advantages in bowls and SOS for CFP purposes)---so no movement there (and no movement between the the AAC and MW as there would be no income increase to offset increased travel costs under the hypothetical). I guess if a P5 was quietly unhappy in thier present conference, they could move to whatever P5 they think is more advantageous---assuming the destination conference is inclined to take them.

I just dont see much movement at all.

Exactly, keeping overhead down would be the main priority. And if each school had to pursue it's own revenue streams the need to move for more money is gone. So the Big 10 and SEC would likely stay the same. The Big 12 might actually grow. The PAC stays the same and Colorado might move back to the Big 12 as might Nebraska and Missouri.

If there was one conference that could be impacted it would be the ACC. The long East Coast profile might give birth to the resurrection of the Old Big East with minor modifications. If that happened then the football first Southern schools of the ACC might rather be with the larger venues of the SEC and Kentucky might rather be with the basketball first schools of the ACC.

So I would agree with you and Ken D that most would remain the same and if there were changes they would be motivated by the outliers wanting to play more regionally.

I do think the ACC would be more vulnerable under that set of circumstances than any other P conference.

PAC 2 might be the one that suffers the most. They are really spread out apart, and the money for tv is not that great as it is compared to the others. They could be the first super-conference and could add schools to help schools out. Boise State would be there to help Washington State and Oregon State. UNR could also be there as well. San Diego State and Fresno State along with UNLV and Hawaii could help the California schools out some more. New Mexico, BYU, Utah State, Colorado State, Air Force, Montana and Wyoming could help Colorado and Utah out. I am not saying they all could get into the PAC 12, but PAC 12 could break into 2 conferences.

(09-21-2017 05:05 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  PAC 2 might be the one that suffers the most. They are really spread out apart, and the money for tv is not that great as it is compared to the others. They could be the first super-conference and could add schools to help schools out. Boise State would be there to help Washington State and Oregon State. UNR could also be there as well. San Diego State and Fresno State along with UNLV and Hawaii could help the California schools out some more. New Mexico, BYU, Utah State, Colorado State, Air Force, Montana and Wyoming could help Colorado and Utah out. I am not saying they all could get into the PAC 12, but PAC 12 could break into 2 conferences.

David, read the OP. The hypothetical is that the TV money is gone. If that's the case then crowds are how you earn your money and travel costs need to be kept at a minimum. So the PAC would probably stay pretty much the same even though their travel would probably be more the larger schools would still be the same.

I think SEC absolutely would be content with their situation.
MAC would be content.
Pac-12 probably content.
Not sure whether the old heads around the B1G would be so happy with Maryland and Rutgers with TV money out of the equation.
MWC I don't think would have any particular grievance other than maybe rethinking not taking UTEP.
Sun Belt didn't have any money so TV money never influenced their decisions. Sun Belt moves were all "who fits that is available now".

(09-21-2017 05:09 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-21-2017 05:05 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  PAC 2 might be the one that suffers the most. They are really spread out apart, and the money for tv is not that great as it is compared to the others. They could be the first super-conference and could add schools to help schools out. Boise State would be there to help Washington State and Oregon State. UNR could also be there as well. San Diego State and Fresno State along with UNLV and Hawaii could help the California schools out some more. New Mexico, BYU, Utah State, Colorado State, Air Force, Montana and Wyoming could help Colorado and Utah out. I am not saying they all could get into the PAC 12, but PAC 12 could break into 2 conferences.

David, read the OP. The hypothetical is that the TV money is gone. If that's the case then crowds are how you earn your money and travel costs need to be kept at a minimum. So the PAC would probably stay pretty much the same even though their travel would probably be more the larger schools would still be the same.

You just said it the way I am pointing out. Look at Washington and Oregon schools? They would benefit more with schools like Boise State and UNR for travel costs for all sports. Boise State fans do travel, and could help Washington State, Washington, Oregon and Oregon State stands filled. That is what I am pointing out for the PAC 12 because of the costs of the sports, and the travel costs piles unto the conference. Several schools have had issues of losing money than making it.

(09-21-2017 04:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  If there was one conference that could be impacted it would be the ACC. The long East Coast profile might give birth to the resurrection of the Old Big East with minor modifications. If that happened then the football first Southern schools of the ACC might rather be with the larger venues of the SEC and Kentucky might rather be with the basketball first schools of the ACC.

I'm good with this either way.
CJ

(09-21-2017 06:23 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(09-21-2017 04:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  If there was one conference that could be impacted it would be the ACC. The long East Coast profile might give birth to the resurrection of the Old Big East with minor modifications. If that happened then the football first Southern schools of the ACC might rather be with the larger venues of the SEC and Kentucky might rather be with the basketball first schools of the ACC.

I'm good with this either way.
CJ

Well, if that happened, I could see the northern schools of the ACC + Temple + UConn + Cincinnati merging together.

So BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Temple, UConn, Cincinnati, UL. Would WVU leave the B12 for that grouping? Possibly. Without Rutgers and Penn State it's still a small group. Hard to see that group inviting ECU as basketball quality would take a hit.

The ACC: UVA, VT, NC, NCState, Duke, WF, Ga Tech, FSU, Miami, Clemson, Notre Dame. Or Notre Dame goes with the northern group.

Interesting, shame it wouldn't happen. Rutgers, PSU and Maryland wouldn't leave the Big 10, though, and it's questionable if UL leaves the ACC.

The rest of the American? ECU, USF, UCF, Memphis, Houston, Tulsa, Tulane, SMU.

Looks like the Metro to me without Louisville and FSU

Under this hypothetical, I think the ACC, B1G, PAC, and SEC each expand to 16 with no losses. (Maybe, just maybe, Missouri moves, but probably not.) The Big 12 gets somewhat picked over for the nine spots in the other conferences. The Big 12 then gets the best of the best G5 schools to expand back to 12. With that said, I'll let someone else come up with who lands where.

I will also assume that if there is no TV money this also includes the championship sources of TV revenue (CFP, NCAA Tourney).

Super conferences then are completely invalidated. B1G and SEC have enough prestige to them they stay intact. PAC also stays as is with such a gap academically between it and the MWC.

The ACC however could use a split and a few additions. Go back to round robin basketball play.

I: UL, UC, WVU, Pitt, Syracuse, BC, UConn, UVA, VT, ND (oly)
II: UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, NCST, Clemson, GT, Miami, Florida St.

We get back to a six conference power system by doing this with a new NE based conference that looks like the Big East.

B12 grabs Houston to replace WVU to become more regional.

AAC replaces 3 losses with Dayton, VCU, WKU to keep the hybrid strong in basketball.

Losing WKU would be a good thing for CUSA so they can slide UAB to the east division. Pick up AState as a replacement.

SBC can then stick at 9 football schools and hybridize some more with UMKC as an addition.

Conclusion: Aside from an ACC split there isn't too much that wouldn't happen under a normal expansion scenario (e.g. B12 goes to 12).

(09-21-2017 05:56 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(09-21-2017 05:09 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-21-2017 05:05 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  PAC 2 might be the one that suffers the most. They are really spread out apart, and the money for tv is not that great as it is compared to the others. They could be the first super-conference and could add schools to help schools out. Boise State would be there to help Washington State and Oregon State. UNR could also be there as well. San Diego State and Fresno State along with UNLV and Hawaii could help the California schools out some more. New Mexico, BYU, Utah State, Colorado State, Air Force, Montana and Wyoming could help Colorado and Utah out. I am not saying they all could get into the PAC 12, but PAC 12 could break into 2 conferences.

David, read the OP. The hypothetical is that the TV money is gone. If that's the case then crowds are how you earn your money and travel costs need to be kept at a minimum. So the PAC would probably stay pretty much the same even though their travel would probably be more the larger schools would still be the same.

You just said it the way I am pointing out. Look at Washington and Oregon schools? They would benefit more with schools like Boise State and UNR for travel costs for all sports. Boise State fans do travel, and could help Washington State, Washington, Oregon and Oregon State stands filled. That is what I am pointing out for the PAC 12 because of the costs of the sports, and the travel costs piles unto the conference. Several schools have had issues of losing money than making it.

Oregon/Washington schools would care more about maintaining their connections to their California alums and recruiting pipelines then they would about having another geographical friendly school joining them in conference.

A derp fan-fiction post getting this much traction. Can't tell if that's why I like this site or hate it.