Getting some love in relief against the Red So on ESPN. They also mentioned he played at UNCW. Three up, three down in the eighth.

(09-13-2017 09:20 PM)SEA33HAWK Wrote:  Getting some love in relief against the Red So on ESPN. They also mentioned he played at UNCW. Three up, three down in the eighth.

Is Hatcher our best MLB product to date? He's turned into quite a solid relief man.

(09-14-2017 07:45 AM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  

(09-13-2017 09:20 PM)SEA33HAWK Wrote:  Getting some love in relief against the Red So on ESPN. They also mentioned he played at UNCW. Three up, three down in the eighth.

Is Hatcher our best MLB product to date? He's turned into quite a solid relief man.

He's still 2nd behind Carl Willis (1984-1995, 4 teams), whose # 42 is currently the only jersey ever retired by UNCW Baseball. Willis logged more appearances (267 to 207) and innings (390 to 219.2) than Hatcher has to date, and had a lower ERA (4.25 to 4.63).

Willis also won a World Series with the Twins in 1991, where he made 7 playoff appearances (4 in the World Series) and had a 2.92 ERA with 5 K's in his 12.1 innings of work during that playoff run.

In addition, Willis is the current pitching coach for the Red Sox (he's been an MLB pitching coach since 2003) and is very well respected in that role. 4 pitchers won Cy Youngs under his watch (C.C. Sabathia in 2007, Cliff Lee in 2008, Felix Hernandez in 2010, and Rick Porcello in 2016).

Because he throws in the mid-90s, topping out at 96-97, Hatcher does have a much stronger K/9 than Willis did (9.3 to 5.1), and his ability to get punch-outs is one big reason he continues to find work in the bigs as a back-end of the bullpen guy. He also was the first player since the 1930's to debut in the MLB as a catcher, then later come back as a pitcher. A very impressive feat.

We've had 7 other Seahawks reach the bigs, but none have logged a full season, making Willis and Hatcher the clear top guys. Below is the remaining list:

* Bill Haywood, RHP (1968, Senators): 0-0, 4.70 ERA, 23.0 IP, 10 K's, 12 BB's

* Billy Harris, 2B/3B (1968-69, Indians and Royals): .218, 3 RBI, 2 SB, 11 R, 101 AB's

* Brian Smith, RHP (2000, Pirates): 0-0, 10.38 ERA, 4.1 IP, 3 K's, 2 BB's

* Jason Roach, RHP (2003, Mets): 0-2, 12.00 ERA, 2 starts, 9.0 IP, 2 K's, 4 BB's

* John Raynor, OF (2010, Pirates): .200 (2-10), 1 R

* Cody Stanley, C (2015, Cardinals): .400 (4-10), 3 RBI, 2 R

* Seth Frankoff, RHP (2017, Cubs): 0-1, 9.00 ERA, 2.0 IP, 2 K's, 0 BB's


Cody Stanley, of course, had the dubious distinction of receiving multiple suspensions for PED use, and I believe is still in the process of finding out whether he'll officially be given a lifetime ban after his 3rd positive test in 2016. Currently, only former Met pitcher Jenrry Mejia has officially received a lifetime ban by the MLB to date for a 3rd positive test.

I remember watching Jason Roach's 2nd start, since I grew up in NJ as a Mets fan and got all their games locally. I was very excited to see him pitch, and he didn't do TOO badly in his outing against the Braves (6.0 innings, 5 ER on 8 hits, 2 K's, 2 BB's), but of course he never got another chance. It's amazing how fleeting these things can be.

Then you had Brad Holt, another guy drafted by the Mets but this time with a 1st round (compensatory) pick. But he only made it to the AAA level (Buffalo), it took him 4 years to get there after being converted to a reliever, and he didn't perform well at all in his brief stint at that level (10.13 ERA in 6 appearances). In 2014 he made 4 bullpen appearances for the Long Island Ducks in the Independent League, and then that was it for him. You just never know what will happen. So many kids get drafted by MLB teams but so very few ever make it, and even high draft picks are guaranteed nothing.

Hopefully Frankoff gets more chances in the near future.

Great summary!

Crazy about Holt, in my years of following i thought he was a can't miss guy.

(09-14-2017 09:57 AM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  Crazy about Holt, in my years of following i thought he was a can't miss guy.

I remember during his Sophomore year pointing out he needed to develop a better secondary pitch, as he was struggling bigtime that year and I wanted to see him get to the next level after a great Freshman campaign. When he wasn't locating his fastball, he had some bad days. Chris Hatcher himself came on the board to rip me for saying that, lol. Even though I was only saying what I said because I wanted to see Holt reach the apex of his potential, not to be negative, I dropped it at the time.

As it turned out, Jason Howell DID help him develop a slider in his Junior campaign, and it was a big reason he got taken in the 1st round.

However, when it came to getting to the next level, the talk was he wasn't always the easiest guy to coach. When you're blessed with the ability to throw a baseball 97 MPH, it makes sense that you think you can blow it past anyone, and I don't blame him for that mentality at all. And I did think getting moved to the bullpen at the minor league level gave him to best crack at getting to the bigs.

But to get to the next level, it takes something extra that I guess he didn't quite have. No shame in that, as very, very few people have it! And in short.....there is no such thing as a "can't miss guy" in baseball, especially for pitchers!

(09-14-2017 10:52 AM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  

(09-14-2017 09:57 AM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  Crazy about Holt, in my years of following i thought he was a can't miss guy.

I remember during his Sophomore year pointing out he needed to develop a better secondary pitch, as he was struggling bigtime that year and I wanted to see him get to the next level after a great Freshman campaign. When he wasn't locating his fastball, he had some bad days. Chris Hatcher himself came on the board to rip me for saying that, lol. Even though I was only saying what I said because I wanted to see Holt reach the apex of his potential, not to be negative, I dropped it at the time.

As it turned out, Jason Howell DID help him develop a slider in his Junior campaign, and it was a big reason he got taken in the 1st round.

However, when it came to getting to the next level, the talk was he wasn't always the easiest guy to coach. When you're blessed with the ability to throw a baseball 97 MPH, it makes sense that you think you can blow it past anyone, and I don't blame him for that mentality at all. And I did think getting moved to the bullpen at the minor league level gave him to best crack at getting to the bigs.

But to get to the next level, it takes something extra that I guess he didn't quite have. No shame in that, as very, very few people have it! And in short.....there is no such thing as a "can't miss guy" in baseball, especially for pitchers!

U
Usually guys with that good of a fastball can make it work, because even a crappy secondary pitch is still a change of pace.

(09-14-2017 12:48 PM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  Usually guys with that good of a fastball can make it work, because even a crappy secondary pitch is still a change of pace.

Sometimes, yes. But your margin for error is much smaller. Some big league guys can get away with a plus fastball and below average secondary pitch. But you still need to be willing to develop that 2nd pitch as much as possible to give yourself the best chance to succeed.

(09-14-2017 01:18 PM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  

(09-14-2017 12:48 PM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  Usually guys with that good of a fastball can make it work, because even a crappy secondary pitch is still a change of pace.

Sometimes, yes. But your margin for error is much smaller. Some big league guys can get away with a plus fastball and below average secondary pitch. But you still need to be willing to develop that 2nd pitch as much as possible to give yourself the best chance to succeed.

I don't disagree. While i agree there isn't a such thing as Can't miss, wasn't he selected in the first round? First round pitchers have a higher success rate than not.

So what's crazy is I didn't realize Willis was a UNCW guy. I lived in Cleveland the years Sabbathia and Lee won the Cy Young in Cleveland. I lived in an apt building downtown a couple doors down from the hitting coach. He'd see my UNCW shirts every now and then in passing and say "Go Seahawks" and I just figured he was familiar with UNCW through the game somehow. Didn't realize he was working with the best Seahawk baseball product.

Small world.

(09-14-2017 06:54 PM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  I don't disagree. While i agree there isn't a such thing as Can't miss, wasn't he selected in the first round? First round pitchers have a higher success rate than not.

Well, yeah, the higher you're drafted the better your chances. And part of that is the team that takes a guy in the 1st will invest a lot of time and resources in order to maximize his potential.

But it's baseball, and drafts are 40 rounds. There's a high bust rate even amongst 1st rounders, especially when it comes to pitchers. Just look at the pitchers taken in the top 50 picks in drafts between 2009-2011 (chosen because 2012-present are too recent to make judgment calls):

2009

"Hits" (7): Stephen Strasburg (1st), Mike Leake (8th), Drew Storen (10th), Shelby Miller (19th), James Paxton (37th), Garrett Richards (42nd), Brad Boxberger (43rd)

"Misses" (21): Matt Hobgood (5th), Zack Wheeler (6th), Mike Minor (7th), Jacob Turner (9th), Tyler Matzek (11th), Aaron Crow (12th), Matt Purke (14th), Alex White (15th), Chad James (18th), Chad Jenkins (20th), Kyle Gibson (22nd), Eric Arnett (26th), Rex Brothers (34th), Aaron Miller (36th), Tyler Skaggs (40th), Tanner Scheppers (44th), Michael Belfiore (45th), Matthew Bashore (46th), Kyle Heckathorn (47th), Tyler Kehrer (48th), Vic Black (49th)


2010

Hits (9): Jameson Taillon (2nd overall), Drew Pomeranz (5th), Matt Harvey (7th), Chris Sale (13th), Mike Foltynewicz (19th), Cam Bedrosian (29th), Aaron Sanchez (34th), Noah Syndergaard (38th), Taijuan Walker (43rd)

Misses (15): Barret Loux (6th), Karsten Whitson (9th), Derek McGuire (11th), Dylan Covey (14th), Hayden Simpson (16th), Alex Wimmers (21st), Jesse Biddle (27th), Zach Lee (28th), Anthony Ranaudo (39th), Asher Wojciechowski (41st), Luke Jackson (45th), Seth Blair (46th), Peter Tago (47th), Chance Ruffin (48th), Tyrell Jenkins (50th)


2011

Hits (8): Gerrit Cole (1st), Trevor Bauer (3rd), Dylan Bundy (4th), Jose Fernandez (14th), Sonny Gray (18th), Tyler Anderson (20th), Joe Ross (25th), Michael Fulmer (44th)

Misses (17): Danny Hultzen (2nd), Archie Bradley (7th), Taylor Jungmann (12th), Jed Bradley (15th), Chris Reed (16th), Matt Barnes (19th), Alex Meyer (23rd), Taylor Guerrieri (24th), Robert Stephenson (27th), Sean Gilmartin (28th), Kevin Matthews (33rd), Henry Owens (36th), Jeff Ames (42nd), Andrew Chafin (43rd), Joe Musgrove (46th), Michael Kelly (48th), Kyle Crick (49th)


So by my count, that's 24 hits and 53 misses, or a 68.8 % "Miss Rate". And I imagine if you looked back to 2008 and prior, that "Miss Rate" would be fairly consistent.

Amongst the 24 "hits", I would only count maybe 5-6 guys I'd qualify as "studs".

And amongst those many misses there were plenty of guys who, like Holt, never even made it to the bigs.

You have quite a few guys on there that have become serviceable MLB pitchers and therefore really are not misses, Matt Barnes, Chafin, Musgrove, Skaggs. Hell, Skaggs is coming off a 3 hit S/O vs one of the best teams in baseball. That's just off names i recognize. I think your definition of "miss" is flawed. While they are all not Kershaw, they have all had decent MLB careers in the bigs.

(09-15-2017 07:24 AM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  You have quite a few guys on there that have become serviceable MLB pitchers and therefore really are not misses, Matt Barnes, Chafin, Musgrove, Skaggs. Hell, Skaggs is coming off a 3 hit S/O vs one of the best teams in baseball. That's just off names i recognize. I think your definition of "miss" is flawed. While they are all not Kershaw, they have all had decent MLB careers in the bigs.

When you say "can't miss" guys, those aren't names that come to mind.

Even if you throw those guys in the "hit" pile, it would still be about a 55-60 % "miss rate". That's not terrific odds in the 1st round. And Holt wasn't an early 1st rounder, he was in the Compensatory portion, pick # 33 overall.

I'm just saying it's not THAT surprising to see guys never make it even in the 1st. The numbers bear that out, by and large. It's unfortunate but not a total shock.

Hoops, if you want to define "Miss" as a guy who never threw a single pitch in the Majors, here's that list of guys who never made it:

2009 (7): Matt Hobgood (5th), Chad James (18th), Eric Arnett (26th), Aaron Miller (36th), Matthew Bashore (46th), Kyle Heckathorn (47th), Tyler Kehrer (48th)

2010 (6): Barret Loux (6th), Karsten Whitson (9th), Hayden Simpson (16th), Jesse Biddle (27th), Seth Blair (46th), Peter Tago (47th)

2011 (5): Danny Hultzen (2nd), Taylor Guerrieri (24th), Kevin Matthews (33rd), Jeff Ames (42nd), Michael Kelly (48th)

So that would be 18 of the 77 pitchers taken, or 23.3 %. 4 of them were top 10 picks.

That's still fairly high given that these organizations are going to do everything in their power to make sure these guys succeed and get a chance. They obviously want return on their investment, given that even late 1st rounders like Holt can command 7-figure signing bonuses.

(09-15-2017 09:05 AM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  Hoops, if you want to define "Miss" as a guy who never threw a single pitch in the Majors, here's that list of guys who never made it:

2009 (7): Matt Hobgood (5th), Chad James (18th), Eric Arnett (26th), Aaron Miller (36th), Matthew Bashore (46th), Kyle Heckathorn (47th), Tyler Kehrer (48th)

2010 (6): Barret Loux (6th), Karsten Whitson (9th), Hayden Simpson (16th), Jesse Biddle (27th), Seth Blair (46th), Peter Tago (47th)

2011 (5): Danny Hultzen (2nd), Taylor Guerrieri (24th), Kevin Matthews (33rd), Jeff Ames (42nd), Michael Kelly (48th)

So that would be 18 of the 77 pitchers taken, or 23.3 %. 4 of them were top 10 picks.

That's still fairly high given that these organizations are going to do everything in their power to make sure these guys succeed and get a chance. They obviously want return on their investment, given that even late 1st rounders like Holt can command 7-figure signing bonuses.

That's more around the % i would expect. All this aside, i still stick by my original statement, in my 17 years around the program, IMO he was our best prospect, and it surprised me he didn't pan out. Especially in a Mets organization known for developing pitchers.

(09-15-2017 11:42 AM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  That's more around the % i would expect. All this aside, i still stick by my original statement, in mt 17 years around the program, IMO he was out best prospect, and it surprised me he didn't pan out. Especially in a Mets organization known for developing pitchers.

For sure. He was taken 4 rounds earlier than any other prospect we've ever had. Expectations were high and it was disappointing he didn't pan out.

But do recall, when Holt was taken, that was an Omar Minaya pick for the Mets, and the early part of his development occurred during a time when pitching development was not nearly as strong.

Sandy Alderson and co., whose scouts and minor league coaches DID draft/develop quality pitchers, didn't arrive until 2010, 2 years after Holt was taken.