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Seahawk Nation 08 Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Chris Hatcher
(09-14-2017 06:54 PM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  I don't disagree. While i agree there isn't a such thing as Can't miss, wasn't he selected in the first round? First round pitchers have a higher success rate than not.

Well, yeah, the higher you're drafted the better your chances. And part of that is the team that takes a guy in the 1st will invest a lot of time and resources in order to maximize his potential.

But it's baseball, and drafts are 40 rounds. There's a high bust rate even amongst 1st rounders, especially when it comes to pitchers. Just look at the pitchers taken in the top 50 picks in drafts between 2009-2011 (chosen because 2012-present are too recent to make judgment calls):

2009

"Hits" (7): Stephen Strasburg (1st), Mike Leake (8th), Drew Storen (10th), Shelby Miller (19th), James Paxton (37th), Garrett Richards (42nd), Brad Boxberger (43rd)

"Misses" (21): Matt Hobgood (5th), Zack Wheeler (6th), Mike Minor (7th), Jacob Turner (9th), Tyler Matzek (11th), Aaron Crow (12th), Matt Purke (14th), Alex White (15th), Chad James (18th), Chad Jenkins (20th), Kyle Gibson (22nd), Eric Arnett (26th), Rex Brothers (34th), Aaron Miller (36th), Tyler Skaggs (40th), Tanner Scheppers (44th), Michael Belfiore (45th), Matthew Bashore (46th), Kyle Heckathorn (47th), Tyler Kehrer (48th), Vic Black (49th)


2010

Hits (9): Jameson Taillon (2nd overall), Drew Pomeranz (5th), Matt Harvey (7th), Chris Sale (13th), Mike Foltynewicz (19th), Cam Bedrosian (29th), Aaron Sanchez (34th), Noah Syndergaard (38th), Taijuan Walker (43rd)

Misses (15): Barret Loux (6th), Karsten Whitson (9th), Derek McGuire (11th), Dylan Covey (14th), Hayden Simpson (16th), Alex Wimmers (21st), Jesse Biddle (27th), Zach Lee (28th), Anthony Ranaudo (39th), Asher Wojciechowski (41st), Luke Jackson (45th), Seth Blair (46th), Peter Tago (47th), Chance Ruffin (48th), Tyrell Jenkins (50th)


2011

Hits (8): Gerrit Cole (1st), Trevor Bauer (3rd), Dylan Bundy (4th), Jose Fernandez (14th), Sonny Gray (18th), Tyler Anderson (20th), Joe Ross (25th), Michael Fulmer (44th)

Misses (17): Danny Hultzen (2nd), Archie Bradley (7th), Taylor Jungmann (12th), Jed Bradley (15th), Chris Reed (16th), Matt Barnes (19th), Alex Meyer (23rd), Taylor Guerrieri (24th), Robert Stephenson (27th), Sean Gilmartin (28th), Kevin Matthews (33rd), Henry Owens (36th), Jeff Ames (42nd), Andrew Chafin (43rd), Joe Musgrove (46th), Michael Kelly (48th), Kyle Crick (49th)


So by my count, that's 24 hits and 53 misses, or a 68.8 % "Miss Rate". And I imagine if you looked back to 2008 and prior, that "Miss Rate" would be fairly consistent.

Amongst the 24 "hits", I would only count maybe 5-6 guys I'd qualify as "studs".

And amongst those many misses there were plenty of guys who, like Holt, never even made it to the bigs.
(This post was last modified: 09-15-2017 12:32 AM by Seahawk Nation 08.)
09-15-2017 12:24 AM
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Seahawkhoops Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Chris Hatcher
You have quite a few guys on there that have become serviceable MLB pitchers and therefore really are not misses, Matt Barnes, Chafin, Musgrove, Skaggs. Hell, Skaggs is coming off a 3 hit S/O vs one of the best teams in baseball. That's just off names i recognize. I think your definition of "miss" is flawed. While they are all not Kershaw, they have all had decent MLB careers in the bigs.
(This post was last modified: 09-15-2017 07:26 AM by Seahawkhoops.)
09-15-2017 07:24 AM
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Post: #13
RE: Chris Hatcher
(09-15-2017 07:24 AM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  You have quite a few guys on there that have become serviceable MLB pitchers and therefore really are not misses, Matt Barnes, Chafin, Musgrove, Skaggs. Hell, Skaggs is coming off a 3 hit S/O vs one of the best teams in baseball. That's just off names i recognize. I think your definition of "miss" is flawed. While they are all not Kershaw, they have all had decent MLB careers in the bigs.

When you say "can't miss" guys, those aren't names that come to mind.

Even if you throw those guys in the "hit" pile, it would still be about a 55-60 % "miss rate". That's not terrific odds in the 1st round. And Holt wasn't an early 1st rounder, he was in the Compensatory portion, pick # 33 overall.

I'm just saying it's not THAT surprising to see guys never make it even in the 1st. The numbers bear that out, by and large. It's unfortunate but not a total shock.
(This post was last modified: 09-15-2017 08:48 AM by Seahawk Nation 08.)
09-15-2017 08:47 AM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Chris Hatcher
Hoops, if you want to define "Miss" as a guy who never threw a single pitch in the Majors, here's that list of guys who never made it:

2009 (7): Matt Hobgood (5th), Chad James (18th), Eric Arnett (26th), Aaron Miller (36th), Matthew Bashore (46th), Kyle Heckathorn (47th), Tyler Kehrer (48th)

2010 (6): Barret Loux (6th), Karsten Whitson (9th), Hayden Simpson (16th), Jesse Biddle (27th), Seth Blair (46th), Peter Tago (47th)

2011 (5): Danny Hultzen (2nd), Taylor Guerrieri (24th), Kevin Matthews (33rd), Jeff Ames (42nd), Michael Kelly (48th)

So that would be 18 of the 77 pitchers taken, or 23.3 %. 4 of them were top 10 picks.

That's still fairly high given that these organizations are going to do everything in their power to make sure these guys succeed and get a chance. They obviously want return on their investment, given that even late 1st rounders like Holt can command 7-figure signing bonuses.
(This post was last modified: 09-15-2017 09:06 AM by Seahawk Nation 08.)
09-15-2017 09:05 AM
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Post: #15
RE: Chris Hatcher
(09-15-2017 09:05 AM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  Hoops, if you want to define "Miss" as a guy who never threw a single pitch in the Majors, here's that list of guys who never made it:

2009 (7): Matt Hobgood (5th), Chad James (18th), Eric Arnett (26th), Aaron Miller (36th), Matthew Bashore (46th), Kyle Heckathorn (47th), Tyler Kehrer (48th)

2010 (6): Barret Loux (6th), Karsten Whitson (9th), Hayden Simpson (16th), Jesse Biddle (27th), Seth Blair (46th), Peter Tago (47th)

2011 (5): Danny Hultzen (2nd), Taylor Guerrieri (24th), Kevin Matthews (33rd), Jeff Ames (42nd), Michael Kelly (48th)

So that would be 18 of the 77 pitchers taken, or 23.3 %. 4 of them were top 10 picks.

That's still fairly high given that these organizations are going to do everything in their power to make sure these guys succeed and get a chance. They obviously want return on their investment, given that even late 1st rounders like Holt can command 7-figure signing bonuses.
That's more around the % i would expect. All this aside, i still stick by my original statement, in my 17 years around the program, IMO he was our best prospect, and it surprised me he didn't pan out. Especially in a Mets organization known for developing pitchers.
(This post was last modified: 09-15-2017 02:04 PM by Seahawkhoops.)
09-15-2017 11:42 AM
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Post: #16
RE: Chris Hatcher
(09-15-2017 11:42 AM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  That's more around the % i would expect. All this aside, i still stick by my original statement, in mt 17 years around the program, IMO he was out best prospect, and it surprised me he didn't pan out. Especially in a Mets organization known for developing pitchers.

For sure. He was taken 4 rounds earlier than any other prospect we've ever had. Expectations were high and it was disappointing he didn't pan out.

But do recall, when Holt was taken, that was an Omar Minaya pick for the Mets, and the early part of his development occurred during a time when pitching development was not nearly as strong.

Sandy Alderson and co., whose scouts and minor league coaches DID draft/develop quality pitchers, didn't arrive until 2010, 2 years after Holt was taken.
(This post was last modified: 09-15-2017 12:37 PM by Seahawk Nation 08.)
09-15-2017 12:36 PM
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