Women's 2017-18 Preseason: Some Brief Thoughts
Once again the SoCon divides neatly into 3 divisions
Mercer (25-7, 12-2)
Chattanooga (21-11, 12-2)
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UNCG (20-15, 7-7)
Furman (14-17, 7-7)
ETSU (16-14, 8-6)
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Samford (12-19, 4-10)
Wofford (13-17, 3-11).
Western Carolina (8-22, 3-11)
MERCER (25-7, 12-2)
Mercer tied Chattanooga for the regular season conference championship at 12-2 and lost by 2 points in the SoCon tourney final, the second year in a row that they reached the SoCon finals. The Mocs beat them 3 times, twice in the regular season and once in the tournament. Mercer is 1-6 against Chattanooga over the last 2 years. Mercer did not lose a game to any other SoCon team last season. The Bears return their top 9 players and all of them are Seniors (5) or Juniors (4) including POY Sr. Kahlia Lawrence and all-conference Sr. Sydney Means, while the Mocs lose 3 of their top 4 players.
Mercer's big weakness is pitiful 3 point shooting: 47 makes on .280 in conference. Their big strength, an awesome +5.80 turnover margin.
If this isn’t the year for Suzy Gardner and the Mercer gals to finally get by Chattanooga, they ought to give up and go back to the ASun. Oh wait… FGCU.
CHATTANOOGA (21-11, 12-2)
Pretty much everything about the Chattanooga Women’s basketball program is on a different level than the rest of the SoCon: the 5 SoCon Tourney wins in a row and 5 trips to the NCAA’s, the ambitious schedule and the recruiting. So while the loss of 3 of their top 4 players is cause for concern – it is not cause for panic. They do return all-conference Keiana Gilbert and all-freshman Lakelyn Bouldin. The last time they suffered this kind of attrition (2014-2015 losing top 2 players and 4 of top 6), they simply reloaded and won again anyway, admittedly having to go to overtime to beat ETSU in the SoCon Tourney. But then they did not face the kind of experienced rival that they have this year in Mercer with a team of Seniors and Juniors that has twice taken the Bears to the SoCon Tourney finals, last year losing only by a single basket. You have to favor Mercer this year.
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UNCG (20-15, 7-7)
Long time cellar dweller vaulted all the way from the bottom at 0-14 into the middle led by first year coach and SoCon Coach of the Year Trina Patterson, formerly the number 1 assistant and recruiting coordinator for ODU. This was UNCG’s 1st .500 conference record in 7 years. 3 of their 5 best players were freshmen including all-conference Nadine Soliman. Were 1-1 versus the Bucs. They are especially strong inside with second in conference +4.5 rebounding margin and 4.8 blocks.
ETSU (16-14, 8-6)
Ended the year on a 2-5 skid topped by a first game SoCon tourney loss to a 4-10 Samford team that they had beaten twice in the regular season. The Bucs came out woefully unready to play and at half it was 37 to 18 in favor of Samford. Tianna Tarter led a second half comeback to tie it in the last seconds, but they weren’t able to salvage it. The last link with Karen Kemp, athletic guard Shamauria Bridges, graduated taking 15.3 points per game and half of the Bucs made 3’s (90 makes on .346).
Last year’s recruiting class looked promising, but the Marosites twins are already gone down to DII, Micah Norris and Morgan Martin are also gone and remaining class members have shown little so far.
The last 2 years the Bucs have been middle of the pack SoCon – capable of looking good in stretches and bad in stretches. These losses leave them with the smallest roster in the SoCon with only 10 eligible players for this season. UAB transfer Micah Sheetz must sit out a year. Everybody will be needed to contribute. [EDIT: the last second addition of 5-11 F 5th yr Sr. Shy Copney from Tennesse Martin, former high school teammate of Tiana Tarter, brings it to 11.] By comparison Mercer has 14 on the roster, Chattanooga 13, Furman 12, UNCG 14, Samford 13, Wofford 12, and Western Carolina 13.
Last year’s strong points were decent, but not spectacular, rebounding (4th in conference play +1.7), turnover margin (2nd in conference but only +0.43, FAR behind Mercer’s stellar 5.83) and 3 point percentage ( 2nd in conference with a rather modest .333 – much of which graduated with Shamauria). Rebounding should continue to be solid with Dean, Tarter, Malloree Schurr and Sadasia Tipps. But although Schurr and Tipps scrap, rebound and defend well, they don’t score effectively. The Bucs do not have anyone returning who shot over .289 from 3 on the season. That is a major need.
The biggest plus for the Bucs is Tianna Tarter (35.7 minutes, 19.8 points on .451 FG%, .289 from 3 with 35 makes, 6.2 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 3.7 turnovers, 2.2 steals) who probably had a better season than Mercer’s SoCon POY Kahlia Lawrence (34.7 minutes, 18.0 points on .426 FG%, .292 from 3 with 21 makes, 4.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.7 turnovers, 1.5 steals, with more support from her teammates). Conversely, the Bucs biggest danger is degenerating into the Tianna Tarter show. That would not raise them above middle of the road and would leave them an uneven and frustrating team to watch, rising and falling on Tianna’s hot streaks. They need to let Tianna shine AND build a more effective team.
Once again ETSU’s recruiting looks pretty good on paper, with 3 recruits with great promise: Nashville freshman guard Erica Haynes-Overton, 2 time Tennessee AA All-State looks like a real potential star despite the biggest case of ‘shrinkage’ since A.J. Merriweather. Announced at signing as 5’9” she is on the roster as 5’5”. Oh well, ‘shrinking’ from 6’5” to 6’2” certainly didn’t hurt A.J.’s value to the Bucs. She should have enough speed and athleticism to make the transition to D1. 5’11” Freshman Alayjah Sherer was rated the 12th best player in Mississippi. And 6’0” JUCO Jr. Brittany Snowden from Northwest Florida State had a stellar All-Panhandle Conference freshman year averaging 12.5 points and 10.3 rebounds, but appeared to have some problems last year (injury???), appearing in only 19 of 34 games. If she can repeat her freshman year she might give us what we have been missing since the graduation of Destiny Mitchell, Serena Clark and Maria Bonds – another inside player who can not only rebound but score. We really need these gals to live up to their promise.
An improving star is All-SoCon Junior 6-1 Raven Dean, daughter of former all-pro wide receiver Muhsin Muhammed, who has basketball skills that are catching up to her remarkably powerful physique. In conference she averaged 11.4 points on .477 with 8.7 rebounds, 2nd in the SoCon. She can put the ball on the floor effectively but does not (yet) have 3 point range – 2-12 last year. If she keeps improving, she could be really stunning.
FURMAN (14-17, 7-7)
ETSU beat them twice last year, even when the Bucs were stumbling down the stretch. They lose best player all-conference Whitney Bunn (14.7 ppg on .375 from 3 with 63 makes), but return their next 5 best players including all conference Sr. Cierra Carter (13.0 ppg and 8.2 rebounds), and So. guard Le'Jzae Davidson (10.9 ppg on .330 from 3 with 73 makes), a 2016-17 SoCon All-Freshman Team selection; Sr. forward DeAnneisha Jackson (7.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg), So. forward Tierra Hodges (5.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg), and Jr. forward Kaitlyn Duncan (4.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg). They add 7 freshmen to the mix.
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SAMFORD (12-19, 4-10)
They tumbled from the top three (11-3) into the bottom three (4-10) last season after significant losses to graduation and may have trouble getting out this year. They did embarrass ETSU in the first round of the SoCon Tourney. But the only other SoCon wins that they had were over 4-10 Wofford and 4-10 Western Carolina. They return all-conference Hannah Nichols and all-freshman Katie Allen
WOFFORD (13-17, 3-11)
Wofford and Western are long term cellar dwellers. So was UNCG until a new coach turned it around.
WESTERN CAROLINA (8-22, 3-11)
(This post was last modified: 10-27-2017 10:21 AM by swvabucsfan.)
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