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Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
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200yrs2late Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
**** Irma. We've had bad luck with "I" storms (particularly female, and yes I just assumed the storm's gender) lately with Isabelle and Irene in eastern NC. All of the houses on my farm going back to 1907 have never had water on the floor, but both of those storms put water in the garages and under the foundations. It's rained so much lately the corn is still in the fields, and the beans are just putting on blossoms so wind driven salt spray will kill them for the next few weeks. I've got boats in the water, the greentail shrimp are just starting to run, and I've got 4 foundations to get in the ground for homes that need to be under construction by October. So pretty much **** this storm. I don't have time for it.
09-01-2017 08:24 AM
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Fo Shizzle Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(09-01-2017 08:24 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  **** Irma. We've had bad luck with "I" storms (particularly female, and yes I just assumed the storm's gender) lately with Isabelle and Irene in eastern NC. All of the houses on my farm going back to 1907 have never had water on the floor, but both of those storms put water in the garages and under the foundations. It's rained so much lately the corn is still in the fields, and the beans are just putting on blossoms so wind driven salt spray will kill them for the next few weeks. I've got boats in the water, the greentail shrimp are just starting to run, and I've got 4 foundations to get in the ground for homes that need to be under construction by October. So pretty much **** this storm. I don't have time for it.

Im in the middle of major remodel of my home. Ive spent 2 months tearing out sheet rock and moving walls for the reno. I was going to start putting up new sheetrock next week. Im putting that on hold until this is over. Lots of folks here have just gotten back on track since the Mathew flooding. I hope Irma goes the F away. We dont need another year of this BS.
09-01-2017 08:43 AM
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JMUDunk Offline
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Post: #33
Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
Hope Toleris is correct on his dismissing this worst case scenario. We're right in the middle of an electric and full deck/stairs etc Reno on our place in kitty hawk, don't need this mess there or here in central Va either.

Go awaaaaaay!!!!


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09-01-2017 09:00 AM
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VA49er Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(09-01-2017 09:00 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  Hope Toleris is correct on his dismissing this worst case scenario. We're right in the middle of an electric and full deck/stairs etc Reno on our place in kitty hawk, don't need this mess there or here in central Va either.

Go awaaaaaay!!!!


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I moved into the area right a little before Isabelle struck. I keep telling myself I'm going to buy a generator after each hurricane but I never do. I'll learn someday I guess.
09-01-2017 09:02 AM
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JMUDunk Offline
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Post: #35
Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(09-01-2017 09:02 AM)VA49er Wrote:  
(09-01-2017 09:00 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  Hope Toleris is correct on his dismissing this worst case scenario. We're right in the middle of an electric and full deck/stairs etc Reno on our place in kitty hawk, don't need this mess there or here in central Va either.

Go awaaaaaay!!!!


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I moved into the area right a little before Isabelle struck. I keep telling myself I'm going to buy a generator after each hurricane but I never do. I'll learn someday I guess.


We had just moved into our new place about 3 yrs before Isabel. Beautiful wooded lot with a nice stand of old growth oaks, probably 10 feet or more in circumference, 100 ft tall or more.

Isabel took them All out. 3500 in freaking labor/haul away expenses and a wrecked back yard, fencing, little bridge, swing set etc.

No power for nearly a week, no ice, cooked 2 freezers worth of food on the grill and did the best we could.

Finally bought a generator this past spring, haven't needed to unpack the box yet. Got it at Northern Tool for a steal, under 400 bucks I think.

Hope I never have to use it...


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(This post was last modified: 09-01-2017 02:57 PM by JMUDunk.)
09-01-2017 09:37 AM
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Kaplony Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(09-01-2017 07:36 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  From Wxrisk on FB

***ALERT *** 0z FRIDAY Operational GFS Model takes IRMA to Category 5 status --909 mb for you weather weenies out there - on morning of SEPT 9 passing ne of the Bahamas. The GFS keeps IRMA as an extreme hurricane crashing it into Cape Hatteras on Sept 10 at 925mb which would easily be the strongest Hurricane to EVER impact any portion of of the east North of Jacksonville FL since it was settled by any Europeans ( since 1600).

From there the 0z FRI GFS takes IRMA northwest into Noroflk into the chessy bay much like Isabel. ... into Baltimore . But in thsi case the 0z FRIDAY GFS shows a hurricane at least 20 times more massive and powerful than Isabel (2003). From there 0z GFS takes IRMA northwest into / through central PA then near Syracuse NY.

SEE IMAGES

Taken verbatim ...that is to say if you were to accept this particular model solution of the GFS early Friday morning SEPT 1 model run as fact... you see the strongest hurricane to ever hit the East coast since 1600. No hurricane has ever had a pressure below 940 mb when does reach Cape Hatteras or any point north of Hatteras into New England. It has NEVER ever happened before and the reason for that is because the atmosphere and the ocean water temperatures north of Cape Hatteras cannot support a hurricane of that intensity.

Taken verbatim this would be a disastrous hit for all of eastern NC eastern Virginia ..Maryland Delaware New Jersey New York City Long Island/. Whole areas would be devastated with massive flooding ...enormous tidal surge ... severe infrastructure damage lasting weeks... well you get the idea.

*** KEY POINT Now all that being said.. let me say that this solution from the operational 0z Friday GFS is complete and total absolute 100% stinking bull****. ***

As I stated above the ocean water temperatures north of Cape Hatteras cannot support a hurricane of this intensity. Not even the great New England hurricane of 1938 had a pressure lower than 946 mb at the time a landfall in eastern Long Island and eastern Connecticut. Hurricane Gloria which passed just to the east of Cape Hatteras in September 1985 had a MSLP depression 942 mb. There are several other examples but the point here is that the operational GFS showing a intense category 4 or 5 hurricane hitting Cape Hatteras and moving into Southeast Virginia and the Chesapeake Bay is an absolute fantasy.

Now it IS possible that IRMA could take a track that brings it into the East Coast-- ...say eastern North Carolina / Southeast Virginia or the Delmarva or perhaps a glancing track ...as I discussed on the website... from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod in southeastern Massachusetts.

BUT we are NOT going to see a extreme historic record shattering mind boggling category 4 or 5 hurricane in eastern North Carolina or Southeast Virginia.

Let me put it this way ... There is a better chance of monkeys flying out of my ass on September 10 or 11th then the operational GFS a category 4 or 5 hurricane hitting Eastern North Carolina and Southeast Virginia.

Two other points I wish to make. First.. and this is for the really stupid people out there ( and you know who you are) ... what I am doing here is DOWNPLAYING the hype. Talking about why something is NOT going to happen is not the same thing as to why something might happen . Again this is obvious to most people with an education over 8 grade but there are a lot of stupid people out there and sometimes we have to go over the basics.

SECOND.... Undoubtedly given the nature of social media today and how unrestricted it is ,...the extreme GFS hurricane model projections are going to show up on other people's facebook pages... twitter accounts ...and other social media. And since most people don't have any background in meteorology ....this is going to cause a reaction. So by making my statement here and now I am hoping that this common sense and basic meteorology which I have just shown is going to help counter the hysteria and overreaction which may occur when these maps get sent out on the overnight social media outlets.

Please keep in mind that this is Just one model projection of the GFS which is not a very good model when it comes to hurricane forecasting beyond four days.

LAST point.. the GFS ensemble which is a MEAN / average of 21 versions of f the GFS model all run this early Friday morning ... takes RMA waay to the east of Cape Hatteras and recurve IRMA f out into the open Atlantic Ocean passing just the south and east of Massachusetts.


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Texted with my guy at SCEMD last night. Still way too early to know where this storm is headed. He said that the "spaghetti" models have everywhere between hitting the Keys and passing by Bermuda and missing the US. His advice was to just keep updated a couple times a day until the first of next week, then start paying closer attention.
09-01-2017 10:25 AM
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Kaplony Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
And as I was typing the previous reply Brad Panovich, Chief Meteorologist for WCNC in Charlotte and one of the best WX personalities on social media in this region, made a post on Facebook that contained this:

Quote:We don't know where #Irma will go or how strong and won't know for 5-6 more days. Then we have 5-6 more days until it may or may not hit anyone. Stay weather aware but don't be alarmed right now. 85% of storms that form out this far don't hit the U.S.
09-01-2017 10:30 AM
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Fitbud Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(09-01-2017 10:30 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  And as I was typing the previous reply Brad Panovich, Chief Meteorologist for WCNC in Charlotte and one of the best WX personalities on social media in this region, made a post on Facebook that contained this:

Quote:We don't know where #Irma will go or how strong and won't know for 5-6 more days. Then we have 5-6 more days until it may or may not hit anyone. Stay weather aware but don't be alarmed right now. 85% of storms that form out this far don't hit the U.S.

Have you left your area yet?
09-01-2017 10:34 AM
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VA49er Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(09-01-2017 10:34 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  
(09-01-2017 10:30 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  And as I was typing the previous reply Brad Panovich, Chief Meteorologist for WCNC in Charlotte and one of the best WX personalities on social media in this region, made a post on Facebook that contained this:

Quote:We don't know where #Irma will go or how strong and won't know for 5-6 more days. Then we have 5-6 more days until it may or may not hit anyone. Stay weather aware but don't be alarmed right now. 85% of storms that form out this far don't hit the U.S.

Have you left your area yet?

Don't be obtuse.

Folks are obviously a little sensitive to any possible hurricane post Harvey. Folks will hopefully make the correct decisions if and when this storm approaches land.
09-01-2017 10:39 AM
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200yrs2late Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(09-01-2017 10:30 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  And as I was typing the previous reply Brad Panovich, Chief Meteorologist for WCNC in Charlotte and one of the best WX personalities on social media in this region, made a post on Facebook that contained this:

Quote:We don't know where #Irma will go or how strong and won't know for 5-6 more days. Then we have 5-6 more days until it may or may not hit anyone. Stay weather aware but don't be alarmed right now. 85% of storms that form out this far don't hit the U.S.

Just terrible timing for farmers and commercial fishermen. It seems to be on that track near the Lesser Antilles and PR that always puts it skirting the east coast unless a cold front pushes it off shore.
09-01-2017 10:40 AM
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