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Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
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fsquid Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
Quote:This list ranks tropical cyclones within the Atlantic that have accrued at least US$1 billion in damage, based on their uninflated damage totals.
08-31-2017 12:00 PM
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fsquid Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
If you use deadliest and not costliest, you'd see that the global warming in the 20s and 30s was a *****.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_de...hurricanes
08-31-2017 12:01 PM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
[Image: ?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.ama...-10-am.jpg]
08-31-2017 12:16 PM
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VA49er Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(08-31-2017 11:37 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  It's a good think climate change is a hoax.

FFS, not this nonsense.
08-31-2017 01:06 PM
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DownEastPirate Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(08-31-2017 12:16 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  [Image: ?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.ama...-10-am.jpg]

Well, they really strained themselves on that prediction.
08-31-2017 01:08 PM
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Kronke Online
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Post: #26
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
Still far out, but this model would be particularly devastating.


(This post was last modified: 09-01-2017 12:56 AM by Kronke.)
09-01-2017 12:55 AM
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BuffaloTN Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(08-31-2017 11:52 AM)fsquid Wrote:  
(08-31-2017 11:49 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  
(08-31-2017 11:40 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  
(08-31-2017 11:37 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  It's a good think climate change is a hoax.

Yeah record low level of hurricanes the last 12 years.

Perhaps but the most devastating once in history seem to have come in the last 10 years.

So while there may be fewer, they seem to be getting more damaging.

I'd love to see the backup on this one.

It's Fit. No back up needed.
09-01-2017 05:18 AM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
NWS saved countless lives during Harvey - their models and projections were spot on. Social media also was a major life saver (but also a source of countless untrue rumors as well). If Harvey happened in 2001, the death toll would probably have been hundreds - maybe thousands. I believe it's currently 40 or so although sadly it will still rise.
09-01-2017 06:56 AM
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BuffaloTN Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
40 is quite amazing.
09-01-2017 07:33 AM
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EverRespect Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
From Wxrisk on FB

***ALERT *** 0z FRIDAY Operational GFS Model takes IRMA to Category 5 status --909 mb for you weather weenies out there - on morning of SEPT 9 passing ne of the Bahamas. The GFS keeps IRMA as an extreme hurricane crashing it into Cape Hatteras on Sept 10 at 925mb which would easily be the strongest Hurricane to EVER impact any portion of of the east North of Jacksonville FL since it was settled by any Europeans ( since 1600).

From there the 0z FRI GFS takes IRMA northwest into Noroflk into the chessy bay much like Isabel. ... into Baltimore . But in thsi case the 0z FRIDAY GFS shows a hurricane at least 20 times more massive and powerful than Isabel (2003). From there 0z GFS takes IRMA northwest into / through central PA then near Syracuse NY.

SEE IMAGES

Taken verbatim ...that is to say if you were to accept this particular model solution of the GFS early Friday morning SEPT 1 model run as fact... you see the strongest hurricane to ever hit the East coast since 1600. No hurricane has ever had a pressure below 940 mb when does reach Cape Hatteras or any point north of Hatteras into New England. It has NEVER ever happened before and the reason for that is because the atmosphere and the ocean water temperatures north of Cape Hatteras cannot support a hurricane of that intensity.

Taken verbatim this would be a disastrous hit for all of eastern NC eastern Virginia ..Maryland Delaware New Jersey New York City Long Island/. Whole areas would be devastated with massive flooding ...enormous tidal surge ... severe infrastructure damage lasting weeks... well you get the idea.

*** KEY POINT Now all that being said.. let me say that this solution from the operational 0z Friday GFS is complete and total absolute 100% stinking bull****. ***

As I stated above the ocean water temperatures north of Cape Hatteras cannot support a hurricane of this intensity. Not even the great New England hurricane of 1938 had a pressure lower than 946 mb at the time a landfall in eastern Long Island and eastern Connecticut. Hurricane Gloria which passed just to the east of Cape Hatteras in September 1985 had a MSLP depression 942 mb. There are several other examples but the point here is that the operational GFS showing a intense category 4 or 5 hurricane hitting Cape Hatteras and moving into Southeast Virginia and the Chesapeake Bay is an absolute fantasy.

Now it IS possible that IRMA could take a track that brings it into the East Coast-- ...say eastern North Carolina / Southeast Virginia or the Delmarva or perhaps a glancing track ...as I discussed on the website... from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod in southeastern Massachusetts.

BUT we are NOT going to see a extreme historic record shattering mind boggling category 4 or 5 hurricane in eastern North Carolina or Southeast Virginia.

Let me put it this way ... There is a better chance of monkeys flying out of my ass on September 10 or 11th then the operational GFS a category 4 or 5 hurricane hitting Eastern North Carolina and Southeast Virginia.

Two other points I wish to make. First.. and this is for the really stupid people out there ( and you know who you are) ... what I am doing here is DOWNPLAYING the hype. Talking about why something is NOT going to happen is not the same thing as to why something might happen . Again this is obvious to most people with an education over 8 grade but there are a lot of stupid people out there and sometimes we have to go over the basics.

SECOND.... Undoubtedly given the nature of social media today and how unrestricted it is ,...the extreme GFS hurricane model projections are going to show up on other people's facebook pages... twitter accounts ...and other social media. And since most people don't have any background in meteorology ....this is going to cause a reaction. So by making my statement here and now I am hoping that this common sense and basic meteorology which I have just shown is going to help counter the hysteria and overreaction which may occur when these maps get sent out on the overnight social media outlets.

Please keep in mind that this is Just one model projection of the GFS which is not a very good model when it comes to hurricane forecasting beyond four days.

LAST point.. the GFS ensemble which is a MEAN / average of 21 versions of f the GFS model all run this early Friday morning ... takes RMA waay to the east of Cape Hatteras and recurve IRMA f out into the open Atlantic Ocean passing just the south and east of Massachusetts.


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09-01-2017 07:36 AM
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