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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #1
How large could these leagues get?
If you assume that G5 schools are on the table because they add unique audiences in a streaming world then how large could some of these leagues grow?

I've thought there's a good chance that the entire Big 12 could find a home in the next iteration of Power leagues and that possibly even a few G5s could make the cut as well.

I don't really see anyone going past 20, but I do think 20 is a legitimate possibility for some or all. I have to believe that Slive had not only good information but good perspective due to his associations when he told the world we would probably move to "very, very large conferences" in the next wave.

What shape does it take?

Well, if this all coincides with ESPN being in content acquisition mode then the SEC and ACC probably stand to bring down the biggest brands and perhaps the largest numbers. The PAC is not in a very strong position and the B1G can pay well, but might be limited by a few factors.

What about this?

SEC adds Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, South Florida, and BYU

ACC adds Notre Dame, Cincinnati, West Virginia, TCU, Baylor, and Tulane

B1G adds Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and UConn

PAC adds Colorado State, New Mexico, UNLV, and Houston


Predictions?
08-23-2017 11:02 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #2
RE: How large could these leagues get?
(08-23-2017 11:02 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  If you assume that G5 schools are on the table because they add unique audiences in a streaming world then how large could some of these leagues grow?

I've thought there's a good chance that the entire Big 12 could find a home in the next iteration of Power leagues and that possibly even a few G5s could make the cut as well.

I don't really see anyone going past 20, but I do think 20 is a legitimate possibility for some or all. I have to believe that Slive had not only good information but good perspective due to his associations when he told the world we would probably move to "very, very large conferences" in the next wave.

What shape does it take?

Well, if this all coincides with ESPN being in content acquisition mode then the SEC and ACC probably stand to bring down the biggest brands and perhaps the largest numbers. The PAC is not in a very strong position and the B1G can pay well, but might be limited by a few factors.

What about this?

SEC adds Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, South Florida, and BYU

ACC adds Notre Dame, Cincinnati, West Virginia, TCU, Baylor, and Tulane

B1G adds Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and UConn

PAC adds Colorado State, New Mexico, UNLV, and Houston


Predictions?

Okay let's play large shall we:

B1G East: Indiana, Maryland, Penn State, Purdue, Ohio State, Rutgers
B1G North: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin
B1G Midwest: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah
B1G West: California, Cal Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

SEC East: Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, South Carolina
SEC North: Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech
SEC South: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
SEC West: Arkansas, Louisiana State, Louisville, Miami, Missouri, Texas A&M

B12 North: Boston College, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
B12 Central: Cincinnati, Colorado State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, T.C.U.
B12 South: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Houston, Texas, Texas Tech
B12 West: Brigham Young, Boise State, U.N.L.V., San Diego St., Oregon State, Wash St.

Each conference plays 11 conference games and has 1 OOC rival. You play the 5 games from your division and an alternating division each year.

There are 4 division champs each of which gets a berth in the Conference Semis. The final four for the CFP are the three conference champs and the best at large to satisfy the networks.

Let's look at the potential divisional champs for each conference:

B1G Semis: East: Ohio State/ Penn State, North: Mich/MichSt/Wisc, Midwest: Nebraska/Colorado, West: USC/Wash

SEC: East:Clemson/FSU/Fla/Ga, North: UNC/VaTech, South: Alabama/Aub, West: L.S.U./A&M/Miami/Lousiville

B12: North: Notre Dame/WVU, Central: OU/OSU/TCU, South: UT/AZ/ASU, West: B.Y.U./Boise

I challenge you to find a truly dud for the ratings of those potential conference semi match ups. Heck, the pairings are far better than most bowls.
08-24-2017 01:36 AM
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vandiver49 Offline
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How large could these leagues get?
I think 18 will be the max. Finding the triple point of TV revenue, BMD and home game attendance is impossible beyond that number IMO. Whatever money the networks would give to grow leagues to 20 or more would be offset by the issue Texas is facing schedule wise. My standard is;

15: new market
16: one king included
18: one king, a prince and P4 CFP
08-24-2017 06:38 AM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #4
RE: How large could these leagues get?
We will max out at 15.
The dollars have gotten so large that anything beyond 15 will pull revenue down for three of the 4 conferences because of having to make a marginal decision or because of market overlap.
08-24-2017 07:29 AM
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Lenvillecards Offline
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Post: #5
How large could these leagues get?
(08-24-2017 01:36 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-23-2017 11:02 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  If you assume that G5 schools are on the table because they add unique audiences in a streaming world then how large could some of these leagues grow?

I've thought there's a good chance that the entire Big 12 could find a home in the next iteration of Power leagues and that possibly even a few G5s could make the cut as well.

I don't really see anyone going past 20, but I do think 20 is a legitimate possibility for some or all. I have to believe that Slive had not only good information but good perspective due to his associations when he told the world we would probably move to "very, very large conferences" in the next wave.

What shape does it take?

Well, if this all coincides with ESPN being in content acquisition mode then the SEC and ACC probably stand to bring down the biggest brands and perhaps the largest numbers. The PAC is not in a very strong position and the B1G can pay well, but might be limited by a few factors.

What about this?

SEC adds Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, South Florida, and BYU

ACC adds Notre Dame, Cincinnati, West Virginia, TCU, Baylor, and Tulane

B1G adds Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and UConn

PAC adds Colorado State, New Mexico, UNLV, and Houston


Predictions?

Okay let's play large shall we:

B1G East: Indiana, Maryland, Penn State, Purdue, Ohio State, Rutgers
B1G North: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin
B1G Midwest: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah
B1G West: California, Cal Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

SEC East: Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, South Carolina
SEC North: Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech
SEC South: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
SEC West: Arkansas, Louisiana State, Louisville, Miami, Missouri, Texas A&M

B12 North: Boston College, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
B12 Central: Cincinnati, Colorado State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, T.C.U.
B12 South: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Houston, Texas, Texas Tech
B12 West: Brigham Young, Boise State, U.N.L.V., San Diego St., Oregon State, Wash St.

Each conference plays 11 conference games and has 1 OOC rival. You play the 5 games from your division and an alternating division each year.

There are 4 division champs each of which gets a berth in the Conference Semis. The final four for the CFP are the three conference champs and the best at large to satisfy the networks.

Let's look at the potential divisional champs for each conference:

B1G Semis: East: Ohio State/ Penn State, North: Mich/MichSt/Wisc, Midwest: Nebraska/Colorado, West: USC/Wash

SEC: East:Clemson/FSU/Fla/Ga, North: UNC/VaTech, South: Alabama/Aub, West: L.S.U./A&M/Miami/Lousiville

B12: North: Notre Dame/WVU, Central: OU/OSU/TCU, South: UT/AZ/ASU, West: B.Y.U./Boise

I challenge you to find a truly dud for the ratings of those potential conference semi match ups. Heck, the pairings are far better than most bowls.


If you go that far then you might as well go to a P2. B1G plus PAC & northern ACC & with the SEC with the southern ACC & the B12 split between the 2.

B1G
West: UCLA, Stanford, Cal, USC, Oregon, Washington, Oregon State, Washington State

Southwest: Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Nebraska, TT, TCU, Purdue

North: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana

East: Ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Maryland, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, BC

SEC
West: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor

Central: Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, Miss State, A&M, Arkansas, Vanderbilt

South: Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, SC, Miami, Louisville, Kentucky, West Virginia

North: FSU, Clemson, North Carolina, Duke,,Virginia, VT, GT, NC State

4 team conference playoffs with the 2 winners squaring off for the title.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
(This post was last modified: 08-24-2017 07:48 AM by Lenvillecards.)
08-24-2017 07:39 AM
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Underdog Offline
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Post: #6
RE: How large could these leagues get?
(08-23-2017 11:02 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  If you assume that G5 schools are on the table because they add unique audiences in a streaming world then how large could some of these leagues grow?

I've thought there's a good chance that the entire Big 12 could find a home in the next iteration of Power leagues and that possibly even a few G5s could make the cut as well.

I don't really see anyone going past 20, but I do think 20 is a legitimate possibility for some or all. I have to believe that Slive had not only good information but good perspective due to his associations when he told the world we would probably move to "very, very large conferences" in the next wave.

I agree that 20 is the max.

What shape does it take?

The SEC will be the potter and the B12 clay....

The B12 will be on the auction block

Yes!

Well, if this all coincides with ESPN being in content acquisition mode then the SEC and ACC probably stand to bring down the biggest brands and perhaps the largest numbers.]The PAC is not in a very strong position and the B1G can pay well, but might be limited by a few factors.

Your PAC and B1G points are both true.

What about this?

SEC adds Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, South Florida, and BYU, TCU, and Baylor (the false football god$ will forgive its many sins like they did for Ped St...)

With 20 schools and 5 divisions of five, it's easy for the SEC to keep UT and A&M

This would be a huge issue for the SEC which is easily solved by putting both schools into separate divisions.

ACC adds Notre Dame, Cincinnati, West Virginia, TCU, Baylor, and Tulane

B1G adds Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and UConn

PAC adds Colorado State, New Mexico, UNLV, and Houston


Predictions?

If the PAC doesn't agree to sell ESPN a % of the PACN, I can see ESPN moving all the B12's Texas schools to the SEC; thus, the PACN continues to starve....
(This post was last modified: 08-24-2017 01:08 PM by Underdog.)
08-24-2017 09:30 AM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #7
RE: How large could these leagues get?
The nice thing about the P2 is that you could have the PAC/B1G merger move its CCG to the Rose Bowl and the ACC/SEC merge move its CCG to the Sugar Bowl (or Orange Bowl). Have PAC/B1G semi-finals in Indianapolis and Santa Clara (or new Vegas stadium) and ACC/SEC semi-finals in Atlanta and DFW.

Though, the same system could be in place with the P4 - with CCGs in the same locations and then the champs meet in the Rose and Sugar (or Orange) bowls - which I believe is the more likely scenario.
08-24-2017 09:33 AM
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vandiver49 Offline
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RE: How large could these leagues get?
(08-24-2017 07:29 AM)XLance Wrote:  We will max out at 15.
The dollars have gotten so large that anything beyond 15 will pull revenue down for three of the 4 conferences because of having to make a marginal decision or because of market overlap.

I tend to agree XLance. The only reason to go to 16 or 18 IMO is if the goal is to eliminate a conference. I think guaranteed spots in a 6 team CFP could provide enough money to cover those marginal additions or market overlap teams.

But if Texas and OU decide to help the B12 soldier on then 15 is all any conference needs. Either that or go divisionless.
08-24-2017 09:42 AM
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BePcr07 Online
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Post: #9
RE: How large could these leagues get?
(08-24-2017 07:39 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  
(08-24-2017 01:36 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-23-2017 11:02 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  If you assume that G5 schools are on the table because they add unique audiences in a streaming world then how large could some of these leagues grow?

I've thought there's a good chance that the entire Big 12 could find a home in the next iteration of Power leagues and that possibly even a few G5s could make the cut as well.

I don't really see anyone going past 20, but I do think 20 is a legitimate possibility for some or all. I have to believe that Slive had not only good information but good perspective due to his associations when he told the world we would probably move to "very, very large conferences" in the next wave.

What shape does it take?

Well, if this all coincides with ESPN being in content acquisition mode then the SEC and ACC probably stand to bring down the biggest brands and perhaps the largest numbers. The PAC is not in a very strong position and the B1G can pay well, but might be limited by a few factors.

What about this?

SEC adds Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, South Florida, and BYU

ACC adds Notre Dame, Cincinnati, West Virginia, TCU, Baylor, and Tulane

B1G adds Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and UConn

PAC adds Colorado State, New Mexico, UNLV, and Houston


Predictions?

Okay let's play large shall we:

B1G East: Indiana, Maryland, Penn State, Purdue, Ohio State, Rutgers
B1G North: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin
B1G Midwest: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah
B1G West: California, Cal Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

SEC East: Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, South Carolina
SEC North: Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech
SEC South: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
SEC West: Arkansas, Louisiana State, Louisville, Miami, Missouri, Texas A&M

B12 North: Boston College, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
B12 Central: Cincinnati, Colorado State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, T.C.U.
B12 South: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Houston, Texas, Texas Tech
B12 West: Brigham Young, Boise State, U.N.L.V., San Diego St., Oregon State, Wash St.

Each conference plays 11 conference games and has 1 OOC rival. You play the 5 games from your division and an alternating division each year.

There are 4 division champs each of which gets a berth in the Conference Semis. The final four for the CFP are the three conference champs and the best at large to satisfy the networks.

Let's look at the potential divisional champs for each conference:

B1G Semis: East: Ohio State/ Penn State, North: Mich/MichSt/Wisc, Midwest: Nebraska/Colorado, West: USC/Wash

SEC: East:Clemson/FSU/Fla/Ga, North: UNC/VaTech, South: Alabama/Aub, West: L.S.U./A&M/Miami/Lousiville

B12: North: Notre Dame/WVU, Central: OU/OSU/TCU, South: UT/AZ/ASU, West: B.Y.U./Boise

I challenge you to find a truly dud for the ratings of those potential conference semi match ups. Heck, the pairings are far better than most bowls.


If you go that far then you might as well go to a P2. B1G plus PAC & northern ACC & with the SEC with the southern ACC & the B12 split between the 2.

B1G
West: UCLA, Stanford, Cal, USC, Oregon, Washington, Oregon State, Washington State

Southwest: Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Nebraska, TT, TCU, Purdue

North: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana

East: Ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Maryland, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, BC

SEC
West: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor

Central: Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, Miss State, A&M, Arkansas, Vanderbilt

South: Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, SC, Miami, Louisville, Kentucky, West Virginia

North: FSU, Clemson, North Carolina, Duke,,Virginia, VT, GT, NC State

4 team conference playoffs with the 2 winners squaring off for the title.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don't think they'll go beyond 16 but I've been wrong before! Here's 32-team conferences.

B1G
Pacific: Washington, Washington St, Oregon, Oregon St, California, Stanford, USC, UCLA
Central: Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St
Midwest: Kansas, Kansas St, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern
East: Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Maryland, Rutgers

SEC
Southwest: Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt
Southeast: Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Florida, Florida St, Miami
Atlantic: South Carolina, Clemson, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia, Virginia Tech
North: Kentucky, Louisville, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Boston College

AAC
West: Hawaii, San Diego St, San Jose St, Fresno St, Nevada, UNLV, Boise St, BYU
Mountain: Utah St, Wyoming, Colorado St, Air Force, UTEP, New Mexico, Tulsa, TCU
South: Baylor, SMU, Houston, Rice, Tulane, Memphis, Southern Miss, UAB
Coastal: Central Florida, South Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, Temple, Connecticut, Army, Navy
(This post was last modified: 08-24-2017 09:44 AM by BePcr07.)
08-24-2017 09:43 AM
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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Post: #10
RE: How large could these leagues get?
At 15 that means 4 permanent rivals and rotate 5, at 16 that means 3 permanent rivals and rotate 6. At 18, it could be one permanent rival, and then 8 H-H.

At 20, you would either have to go to 10 conference games, or do something like 4 permanent rivals and then 5 rotate every H-H every six years.

At 24, something like 2 permanent rivals, rotate 7 H-H every six years.

At 30, its 2 permanent rivals + 9 rotating every six years for 11 conference games, or 4 permanent, rotate 5 in and out every 10 years.

At 32, one permanent rival plus 10 rotating every six years for 11 conference games/3 permanent-7 rotating every 8 years.

So, how often do teams have to play each other for the conference model to make sense?
And how many games against elite competition is actually unsafe? I am a big fan of going to 9 conference games, but if we go to 10-12 conference games, that is much more opportunity for injuries. In addition, I doubt the powers that be will allow a pure P5 season. For example, everyone wants at least one "tune up" game, and a homecoming game. So if we played 12 P5 teams, plus those 2 games, plus conference semi's, plus conference finals, plus national semi, plus national finals, thats 18 games.

Also at that number of games, you probably have to mandate a second bye week. Which means games either start in early August or don't finish in time for January 1 bowl games. Sure you can make one tune up a "spring game" exhibition matchup or something similar, but it does get tricky. Plus at that point, a 9-9 record means a bowl game? That's alot of wins to go .500, and would really make the record books seem odd.

I'm not totally against large conferences. It would be great to see OK, Kansas, Iowa State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, UNC, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, and one other school (Texas?) all eventually land in the SEC for a 24 team conference, but there is a line somewhere.
08-24-2017 10:55 AM
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