(08-25-2017 04:23 PM)murrdcu Wrote: Assume OU and OSU join the SEC. The B12 losses, per Thamel's fan and market numbers from his NY Times article written years ago, 1.92 Million fans ( OU = 1.2M & OSU = 719k). There is no two non P5 schools that could replace all those lost fans/viewers. The B12 would cave into Texas' demands and grant them partial membership, like Notre Dame in ACC, but access to the B12 ccg. The B12 could add three schools UConn (618k), BYU (709k), and Boise State (483k) to bring back 1.81M viewers/fans back into the conference. UCF and USF were 507k and 520k respectively.
Using Thamel's fan numbers and cable box subscription numbers, the SEC's next round of expansion candidates probably ranks as the following:
1. Texas--2.25M fans and great Teir I matches. Probably DQ'd by A&M.
2. Virginia Tech--1.3M fans, penetration into Virginia and D.C. markets. Solid football program, but wouldn't enhance T1 as much as a blue blood would.
3. Oklahoma--1.2M fans, new state, blue blood creates tons on T1 content. Might require adding OSU too.
4. North Carolina--958k fans, new state, AAU, basketball blue blood, football program average at best, blue blood basketball, might require Duke (536k) if they ever left ACC
5. West Virginia--959k fans, competitive in both money sports, rabid fan base, small state, but fans spread across the region
6. Oklahoma State--719k fans, same markets as OU, strong support and travel from fan base
Not considered: PAC-12 and Big Ten schools. FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech due to ESPN needing a strong base to support its new network. Maybe in 2030's FSU could be considered for a move.
The SEC would expand for any of the top 4 choices and then round out with the best available.
https://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/0...ent-chaos/
I have to wonder about the methodology on those stats. I think I've posted the article before too so I'm not saying it's wrong, but some of those numbers seem a little small...
Louisville...300K
I'm not sure UL could have built what they have now or gotten an ACC invite if that was all they had to work with. Kentucky seems a little small too with only about 900K.
With that said, Nate Silver is usually pretty good with stats.
If these numbers are roughly accurate then the SEC should have about 16.5 million fans give or take. That means our average is about 1.16M.
If we were to add these...
Oklahoma = 1.2M
Oklahoma State = 700K
West Virginia = 950K
South Florida = 520K
That wouldn't lower the average very much and has the potential to raise it over time as USF is still a growing brand in a large market. They also used to be a Big East member so they're one of the few old BCS schools out there that hasn't found a P5 home yet. UConn and UC are the only other ones. That and their academics are very good.
Whereas WVU and the OK schools expand our territory, USF tightens up our presence in a large market where we're competing with major programs from around the country for talent.
West: Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Arkansas, LSU
Central: Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
East: Florida, South Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, West Virginia