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JRsec Offline
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Post: #21
RE: 8-21 Fluge's BTM email
(08-25-2017 04:08 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(08-25-2017 03:23 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-25-2017 02:28 PM)XLance Wrote:  Here is what we know as of today re: B1G

Osborne mentions Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State
Does not mention Oklahoma or Oklahoma State

“And we have a lot of friends in the Big 12 [in] a lot of the regent schools like Kansas and Kansas State and Iowa State.

https://www.landof10.com/nebraska/expans...ng-big-ten

Kansas invests $300 million in their football program
(you don't do that to join the MWC or even stay in an unstable Big 12)
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...out-there/

Would the B1G stop at 15? They have played odd number before or invest in Kansas and Iowa State (two AAU schools that are contiguous) and make a nice pod for Nebraska to be successful (Nebraska, Iowa, Iowa State and Kansas). Very compact and regional and negates Missouri in most of their own market.

The ACC wants Notre Dame to join as a full member
Notre Dame likes the status quo

ESPN needs Texas to join the ACC
Texas wants a Notre Dame type deal
The ACC/ESPN know that if Texas gets a Notre Dame deal, it will be impossible to get Notre Dame to move to to full time.
If Notre Dame caves in first, Texas won't be a problem
If the ACC gives in they want to be paid "extra" for the next 20 years
The only way that Texas can bring a "friend" is if they consent to join as full members and Notre Dame can stay a partial

The SEC will have to take Oklahoma State to preserve Bedlam and placate Oklahoma.
Oklahoma, Texas and either Oklahoma State or Texas Tech to the PAC for 15? Not very likely with the politics and money issues.

And so we wait for somebody to blink...............

Yeah, that's about it. But remember the real issue with Notre Dame is how will the ACC find a way to incorporate them into their playoff structure? If the Big 12 takes the last roundup and we move to a P4 I assure you we will move to a champs only model.

So X what the folks in the ACC need to do is vote for the champs only model to guarantee an ACC entrant every year. The Big 10, SEC, and PAC will see the writing on the wall and do the same. That means the Irish have no port of special privileges in which to anchor. The ACC won't even have to ask them to join. Just set up your playoff structure for the conference take in Texas as a full member, and let the entry to Tech/TCU hang out there as a possibility and watch the Irish have a come to Touchdown Jesus moment.

So the issue here is getting Texas, and being prepared to move to 18 in the process. If Texas gets last minute ballsy over the full inclusion of the Irish and insists anyway that you take another Texas school then just be prepared to do it, rope in the Irish, and have a spot left either for yet another Texas buddy or West Virginia who the Horns could not openly object to after Luck's Eer's pulled the Big 12's TV contract out of the fire in 2012.

Texas might not object to West Virginia, but UVa, Wake Forest and Duke are singing a different tune. And Notre Dame has already said that they won't go back to Morgantown.

Then take T.C.U. and any other. The reality of the situation would still be the same.
08-25-2017 04:41 PM
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Post: #22
RE: 8-21 Fluge's BTM email
(08-25-2017 04:15 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-25-2017 04:08 PM)XLance Wrote:  Texas might not object to West Virginia, but UVa, Wake Forest and Duke are singing a different tune. And Notre Dame has already said that they won't go back to Morgantown.

Personally, I'm fine with the SEC taking West Virginia. There are certain metrics they don't meet, but that can be remedied in time and they're already working on some of them.

Actually, in the world of streaming, it might be nice to have more fans in that region of the country as their fans are spread throughout the Mid-Atlantic. Not like we're getting into NC or VA anytime soon anyway. That and WVU could play some neutral site games in DC or something and attract additional attention in that region of the country.

If I was the ACC though, I would hold a hard line on Notre Dame. There is ultimately no good reason they can't join your league unless you just decide to let them have special treatment. There's nowhere else for them to go once the Big 12 is done.

I attended my brother's orientation at WVU in the early 2000's. New Jersey was by far the second largest group of out of state kids followed by PA.
08-25-2017 05:42 PM
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AllTideUp Online
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Post: #23
RE: 8-21 Fluge's BTM email
(08-25-2017 05:42 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  
(08-25-2017 04:15 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-25-2017 04:08 PM)XLance Wrote:  Texas might not object to West Virginia, but UVa, Wake Forest and Duke are singing a different tune. And Notre Dame has already said that they won't go back to Morgantown.

Personally, I'm fine with the SEC taking West Virginia. There are certain metrics they don't meet, but that can be remedied in time and they're already working on some of them.

Actually, in the world of streaming, it might be nice to have more fans in that region of the country as their fans are spread throughout the Mid-Atlantic. Not like we're getting into NC or VA anytime soon anyway. That and WVU could play some neutral site games in DC or something and attract additional attention in that region of the country.

If I was the ACC though, I would hold a hard line on Notre Dame. There is ultimately no good reason they can't join your league unless you just decide to let them have special treatment. There's nowhere else for them to go once the Big 12 is done.

I attended my brother's orientation at WVU in the early 2000's. New Jersey was by far the second largest group of out of state kids followed by PA.

Yeah, I've heard they pull down a ton of kids from the NY metro area for some reason.

It's one of the reasons that I've never minded the idea of WVU in the SEC. The state of WV might have a small population, but their fans are everywhere.
08-25-2017 06:28 PM
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murrdcu Offline
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Post: #24
RE: 8-21 Fluge's BTM email
(08-25-2017 06:28 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-25-2017 05:42 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  
(08-25-2017 04:15 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-25-2017 04:08 PM)XLance Wrote:  Texas might not object to West Virginia, but UVa, Wake Forest and Duke are singing a different tune. And Notre Dame has already said that they won't go back to Morgantown.

Personally, I'm fine with the SEC taking West Virginia. There are certain metrics they don't meet, but that can be remedied in time and they're already working on some of them.

Actually, in the world of streaming, it might be nice to have more fans in that region of the country as their fans are spread throughout the Mid-Atlantic. Not like we're getting into NC or VA anytime soon anyway. That and WVU could play some neutral site games in DC or something and attract additional attention in that region of the country.

If I was the ACC though, I would hold a hard line on Notre Dame. There is ultimately no good reason they can't join your league unless you just decide to let them have special treatment. There's nowhere else for them to go once the Big 12 is done.

I attended my brother's orientation at WVU in the early 2000's. New Jersey was by far the second largest group of out of state kids followed by PA.

Yeah, I've heard they pull down a ton of kids from the NY metro area for some reason.

It's one of the reasons that I've never minded the idea of WVU in the SEC. The state of WV might have a small population, but their fans are everywhere.
Huge party school, days drive, relaxed admission standards, affordable out of state tuition, major college athletes
08-25-2017 07:33 PM
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Post: #25
RE: 8-21 Fluge's BTM email
(08-25-2017 04:23 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  Assume OU and OSU join the SEC. The B12 losses, per Thamel's fan and market numbers from his NY Times article written years ago, 1.92 Million fans ( OU = 1.2M & OSU = 719k). There is no two non P5 schools that could replace all those lost fans/viewers. The B12 would cave into Texas' demands and grant them partial membership, like Notre Dame in ACC, but access to the B12 ccg. The B12 could add three schools UConn (618k), BYU (709k), and Boise State (483k) to bring back 1.81M viewers/fans back into the conference. UCF and USF were 507k and 520k respectively.

Using Thamel's fan numbers and cable box subscription numbers, the SEC's next round of expansion candidates probably ranks as the following:
1. Texas--2.25M fans and great Teir I matches. Probably DQ'd by A&M.
2. Virginia Tech--1.3M fans, penetration into Virginia and D.C. markets. Solid football program, but wouldn't enhance T1 as much as a blue blood would.
3. Oklahoma--1.2M fans, new state, blue blood creates tons on T1 content. Might require adding OSU too.
4. North Carolina--958k fans, new state, AAU, basketball blue blood, football program average at best, blue blood basketball, might require Duke (536k) if they ever left ACC
5. West Virginia--959k fans, competitive in both money sports, rabid fan base, small state, but fans spread across the region
6. Oklahoma State--719k fans, same markets as OU, strong support and travel from fan base

Not considered: PAC-12 and Big Ten schools. FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech due to ESPN needing a strong base to support its new network. Maybe in 2030's FSU could be considered for a move.

The SEC would expand for any of the top 4 choices and then round out with the best available.

https://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/0...ent-chaos/

I have to wonder about the methodology on those stats. I think I've posted the article before too so I'm not saying it's wrong, but some of those numbers seem a little small...

Louisville...300K

I'm not sure UL could have built what they have now or gotten an ACC invite if that was all they had to work with. Kentucky seems a little small too with only about 900K.

With that said, Nate Silver is usually pretty good with stats.

If these numbers are roughly accurate then the SEC should have about 16.5 million fans give or take. That means our average is about 1.16M.

If we were to add these...

Oklahoma = 1.2M
Oklahoma State = 700K
West Virginia = 950K
South Florida = 520K

That wouldn't lower the average very much and has the potential to raise it over time as USF is still a growing brand in a large market. They also used to be a Big East member so they're one of the few old BCS schools out there that hasn't found a P5 home yet. UConn and UC are the only other ones. That and their academics are very good.

Whereas WVU and the OK schools expand our territory, USF tightens up our presence in a large market where we're competing with major programs from around the country for talent.

West: Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Arkansas, LSU
Central: Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
East: Florida, South Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, West Virginia
08-25-2017 07:48 PM
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AllTideUp Online
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Post: #26
RE: 8-21 Fluge's BTM email
(08-25-2017 07:48 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  If we were to add these...

Oklahoma = 1.2M
Oklahoma State = 700K
West Virginia = 950K
South Florida = 520K

That wouldn't lower the average very much and has the potential to raise it over time as USF is still a growing brand in a large market. They also used to be a Big East member so they're one of the few old BCS schools out there that hasn't found a P5 home yet. UConn and UC are the only other ones. That and their academics are very good.

Whereas WVU and the OK schools expand our territory, USF tightens up our presence in a large market where we're competing with major programs from around the country for talent.

West: Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Arkansas, LSU
Central: Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
East: Florida, South Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, West Virginia

Or if we went to 20, the same concept would work if we're talking about adding the TX schools.

Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, South Florida

West: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri
Central: Texas A&M, LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
South: Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
East: Florida, South Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia

Play 4 division games, 3 permanent rivals from each of the other 3, rotate 1 each from the other 3 every year = 10 games and you play everyone at least once every 4 years.
08-26-2017 12:08 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #27
RE: 8-21 Fluge's BTM email
(08-26-2017 12:08 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-25-2017 07:48 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  If we were to add these...

Oklahoma = 1.2M
Oklahoma State = 700K
West Virginia = 950K
South Florida = 520K

That wouldn't lower the average very much and has the potential to raise it over time as USF is still a growing brand in a large market. They also used to be a Big East member so they're one of the few old BCS schools out there that hasn't found a P5 home yet. UConn and UC are the only other ones. That and their academics are very good.

Whereas WVU and the OK schools expand our territory, USF tightens up our presence in a large market where we're competing with major programs from around the country for talent.

West: Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Arkansas, LSU
Central: Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
East: Florida, South Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, West Virginia

Or if we went to 20, the same concept would work if we're talking about adding the TX schools.

Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, South Florida

West: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri
Central: Texas A&M, LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
South: Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
East: Florida, South Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia

Play 4 division games, 3 permanent rivals from each of the other 3, rotate 1 each from the other 3 every year = 10 games and you play everyone at least once every 4 years.

That's not too bad at all really. I also think we would be wise to add another Florida school, especially one in the Southern half.
08-26-2017 12:36 AM
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XLance Online
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Post: #28
RE: 8-21 Fluge's BTM email
(08-25-2017 04:15 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-25-2017 04:08 PM)XLance Wrote:  Texas might not object to West Virginia, but UVa, Wake Forest and Duke are singing a different tune. And Notre Dame has already said that they won't go back to Morgantown.

Personally, I'm fine with the SEC taking West Virginia. There are certain metrics they don't meet, but that can be remedied in time and they're already working on some of them.

Actually, in the world of streaming, it might be nice to have more fans in that region of the country as their fans are spread throughout the Mid-Atlantic. Not like we're getting into NC or VA anytime soon anyway. That and WVU could play some neutral site games in DC or something and attract additional attention in that region of the country.

If I was the ACC though, I would hold a hard line on Notre Dame. There is ultimately no good reason they can't join your league unless you just decide to let them have special treatment. There's nowhere else for them to go once the Big 12 is done.

It's tough to "hold a hard line on Notre Dame" since agreements are in place to allow them to enjoy semi-independence for another 20 years.
It would have to be Notre Dame asking to join full time as we have no way to force them for quite a while.
08-26-2017 10:11 AM
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XLance Online
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Post: #29
RE: 8-21 Fluge's BTM email
(08-25-2017 04:23 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  
(08-25-2017 02:28 PM)XLance Wrote:  Here is what we know as of today re: B1G

Osborne mentions Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State
Does not mention Oklahoma or Oklahoma State

“And we have a lot of friends in the Big 12 [in] a lot of the regent schools like Kansas and Kansas State and Iowa State.

https://www.landof10.com/nebraska/expans...ng-big-ten

Kansas invests $300 million in their football program
(you don't do that to join the MWC or even stay in an unstable Big 12)
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...out-there/

Would the B1G stop at 15? They have played odd number before or invest in Kansas and Iowa State (two AAU schools that are contiguous) and make a nice pod for Nebraska to be successful (Nebraska, Iowa, Iowa State and Kansas). Very compact and regional and negates Missouri in most of their own market.

The ACC wants Notre Dame to join as a full member
Notre Dame likes the status quo

ESPN needs Texas to join the ACC
Texas wants a Notre Dame type deal
The ACC/ESPN know that if Texas gets a Notre Dame deal, it will be impossible to get Notre Dame to move to to full time.
If Notre Dame caves in first, Texas won't be a problem
If the ACC gives in they want to be paid "extra" for the next 20 years
The only way that Texas can bring a "friend" is if they consent to join as full members and Notre Dame can stay a partial

The SEC will have to take Oklahoma State to preserve Bedlam and placate Oklahoma.
Oklahoma, Texas and either Oklahoma State or Texas Tech to the PAC for 15? Not very likely with the politics and money issues.

And so we wait for somebody to blink...............

Assume OU and OSU join the SEC. The B12 losses, per Thamel's fan and market numbers from his NY Times article written years ago, 1.92 Million fans ( OU = 1.2M & OSU = 719k). There is no two non P5 schools that could replace all those lost fans/viewers. The B12 would cave into Texas' demands and grant them partial membership, like Notre Dame in ACC, but access to the B12 ccg. The B12 could add three schools UConn (618k), BYU (709k), and Boise State (483k) to bring back 1.81M viewers/fans back into the conference. UCF and USF were 507k and 520k respectively.

Using Thamel's fan numbers and cable box subscription numbers, the SEC's next round of expansion candidates probably ranks as the following:
1. Texas--2.25M fans and great Teir I matches. Probably DQ'd by A&M.
2. Virginia Tech--1.3M fans, penetration into Virginia and D.C. markets. Solid football program, but wouldn't enhance T1 as much as a blue blood would.
3. Oklahoma--1.2M fans, new state, blue blood creates tons on T1 content. Might require adding OSU too.
4. North Carolina--958k fans, new state, AAU, basketball blue blood, football program average at best, blue blood basketball, might require Duke (536k) if they ever left ACC
5. West Virginia--959k fans, competitive in both money sports, rabid fan base, small state, but fans spread across the region
6. Oklahoma State--719k fans, same markets as OU, strong support and travel from fan base

Not considered: PAC-12 and Big Ten schools. FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech due to ESPN needing a strong base to support its new network. Maybe in 2030's FSU could be considered for a move.

The SEC would expand for any of the top 4 choices and then round out with the best available.

https://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/0...ent-chaos/

You can forget fan numbers. If a team gets "hot" like Boise State they can attract a lot of eyeballs event though they have a small fanbase. All they really need is enough fans to fill up their stadium that will look and act excited for TV.
Or the team needs a great sticht. Clemson is a great example. Busing the players around to the other end of the stadium so they can touch a rock and run down a hill. That is great TV. Brent Musburger eats that stuff up and sells it to the public like it's sliced bread.
A team with a marketing angle in a streaming world can be just as valuable as one with a large fan base. But a conference can't afford to make a bad choice; Florida State became a darling by taking on everybody and winning over a long period of time, Boise State won for a while but has proven to be a flash in the pan, or the blue field hurts people's eyes so badly that they can't stand to watch.
08-26-2017 10:41 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #30
RE: 8-21 Fluge's BTM email
(08-26-2017 10:11 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(08-25-2017 04:15 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-25-2017 04:08 PM)XLance Wrote:  Texas might not object to West Virginia, but UVa, Wake Forest and Duke are singing a different tune. And Notre Dame has already said that they won't go back to Morgantown.

Personally, I'm fine with the SEC taking West Virginia. There are certain metrics they don't meet, but that can be remedied in time and they're already working on some of them.

Actually, in the world of streaming, it might be nice to have more fans in that region of the country as their fans are spread throughout the Mid-Atlantic. Not like we're getting into NC or VA anytime soon anyway. That and WVU could play some neutral site games in DC or something and attract additional attention in that region of the country.

If I was the ACC though, I would hold a hard line on Notre Dame. There is ultimately no good reason they can't join your league unless you just decide to let them have special treatment. There's nowhere else for them to go once the Big 12 is done.

It's tough to "hold a hard line on Notre Dame" since agreements are in place to allow them to enjoy semi-independence for another 20 years.
It would have to be Notre Dame asking to join full time as we have no way to force them for quite a while.

When the structure and therefore the access fundamentally change from what they are now, they'll ask.
08-26-2017 11:45 AM
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