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8-21 Fluge's BTM email
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #11
RE: 8-21 Fluge's BTM email
(08-22-2017 06:08 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-22-2017 03:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-22-2017 01:08 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-22-2017 11:46 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-22-2017 11:25 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I bring attention to the bolded part because that's one of the reasons I could see Texas ending up in the ACC. ESPN probably fears on some level an SEC with the top brands in TX including the Oklahomas, Arkansas, and LSU.

It's not going to make a lot of sense on many fronts for UT to head there, but if pride gets in the way I could see them taking ESPN's carrot.

I agree, and it's all the more reason that Sankey needs to be tough about who we will and won't take this go around.

Since '91 we've made our list quite clear. I think ESPN has screwed around with it way too much already and it's time we draw a line in the sand. With the CBS contract up in 2034 we do have some leverage.

I think there's a few other things we could do as well to disrupt their operation.

The negotiation for the T1 is a big one, but I think we could also refuse to schedule as many ACC opponents out of conference. The in-state rivalries should remain, of course, but all these extra games should be played with other leagues. That's an immediate dip in content for ESPN...

I would offer as well that a meeting of the minds with B1G officials on a way to carve up the ACC in the future should be undertaken at that point. If we can't trust ESPN to look out for our best interests then we need to look out for our own.

Again I agree to an extent. I'm still weighing the division of the ACC. It might be more profitable to leave them intact, but that's a thought in process.

But tangentially, why do you suppose ESPN wants those SEC/ACC match ups?
Yes there is the keeping the money in house angle, but they are also handicapping the ability of the SEC or ACC to get two in and propping up the PAC and Big 10 thereby hedging their risk that all 4 regions will not be involved in the CFP. When just 1 region is not represented the numbers sag.

It would not be inconceivable that Florida State and Clemson or Auburn and Alabama could make the playoffs with SOS and just 1 loss. So if you schedule Alabama against F.S.U. and Auburn against Clemson you cut that chance down to virtually nil that more than two of those schools emerge at the end of the season in position for make the CFP.

Those damned games are being scheduled to handicap the placement of the PAC and Big 10 champs.

Check out Wisconsin's schedule. They are a virtual shoe in for the Big 10 CCG. Nebraska has the much harder track and Penn State might as well be playing in the SEC West. But Nebraska isn't the national draw it once was and Penn State is somewhat more of a box office poison since the Sandusky scandal. So we have set up in the Big 10 the winner of Michigan / Ohio State to play Wisconsin in the finals. We have scheduled out the possibility that more than two of Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, and Clemson will be contending at the end. With an upset or two none of them might be in position even if they win their conference.

I lay all of that at the feet of ESPN which figures these potentialities out, and then dangles cash to get the conferences to agree to an arrangement that is designed to yield particular scenarios that ESPN intends to exploit.

So I am in complete agreement that we need those games against the Big 10 or PAC and not the ACC/SEC match ups. ESPN wanted to get away from the early season Big 10 vs Alabama games. It left a Big 10 front-runner in the dirt at the start of the season. When Ohio State beats Oklahoma it kills the Big 12 off early this year. OSU will have to be perfect to make it in. And none of this is by accident. They may not be able to control the outcomes, but they sure know how to set the table!

You make a valid point.

To the division of the ACC, I would argue if we're not getting Texas then the way to make our league stronger is to take some of our sister institutions in the ACC and then maybe add a school like Virginia Tech as well.

If ESPN's plan to enrich itself revolves around keeping the SEC in a weaker position then I'd argue our long term solvency could be threatened.

They want us in the CFP, they just don't want us to have two strong schools which might cause a fracas about who gets in. They want wiggle room for the PAC and for the Big 10 in a ho hum year.

They were fine when F.S.U. was the horse to ride in the ACC. Clemson has added a new threat to the top 4 playoff strategy. If F.S.U. or Clemson goes undefeated and the other has only the one loss to the undefeated school then they too have a strong case to get two schools in.

By pitting the top two ACC contenders against the last two SEC schools to appear in the finals (win or lose) they effectively scheme for two of those 4 to have at least 2 losses.

Where it could bite them is if there was a round robin loss and all 4 highly rated finished with just 1 loss each without a clear cut way to break the tie. Then one would have to think that on SOS alone those 4 should be more highly ranked than either of the PAC or B1G champs, especially if both of those also have 1 loss.

All of the sudden then the final four consists of South Carolina, Florida and Alabama as states and only the Southeast region is represented. That's what you call a nightmare scenario for ESPN and the ad rates they anticipate with the semis and finals of the CFP.

So they don't have to weaken the SEC or ACC, they only have to pit the top schools against one another and let attrition take its course.
08-22-2017 07:56 PM
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Hokie Mark Online
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Post: #12
Exclamation RE: 8-21 Fluge's BTM email
(08-22-2017 03:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-22-2017 01:08 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-22-2017 11:46 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-22-2017 11:25 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-21-2017 03:42 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I was interested in realignment because I saw the market model as a ploy to break up large states with influence and to divide states between conferences to keep conferences from fully being able to leverage a state's commercial value. It was a winning strategy for the networks only. You will note that ESPN managed to own all of the properties within the ACC & SEC states, but kept most of the states from being a monopoly for the conference. That's why UNC fights any thought that includes N.C. State or another Carolina school from heading to another conference and why Virginia now does the same. Virginia and North Carolina as a block is almost 3/4's as large as Texas in terms of population It is why ESPN permits the perpetuation of the "gentlemen's agreement myth", and why they worked behind the scenes in '91 to keep F.S.U. out of the SEC. They didn't want to negotiate with an SEC that owned the state of Florida.

I bring attention to the bolded part because that's one of the reasons I could see Texas ending up in the ACC. ESPN probably fears on some level an SEC with the top brands in TX including the Oklahomas, Arkansas, and LSU.

It's not going to make a lot of sense on many fronts for UT to head there, but if pride gets in the way I could see them taking ESPN's carrot.

I agree, and it's all the more reason that Sankey needs to be tough about who we will and won't take this go around.

Since '91 we've made our list quite clear. I think ESPN has screwed around with it way too much already and it's time we draw a line in the sand. With the CBS contract up in 2034 we do have some leverage.

I think there's a few other things we could do as well to disrupt their operation.

The negotiation for the T1 is a big one, but I think we could also refuse to schedule as many ACC opponents out of conference. The in-state rivalries should remain, of course, but all these extra games should be played with other leagues. That's an immediate dip in content for ESPN...

I would offer as well that a meeting of the minds with B1G officials on a way to carve up the ACC in the future should be undertaken at that point. If we can't trust ESPN to look out for our best interests then we need to look out for our own.

Again I agree to an extent. I'm still weighing the division of the ACC. It might be more profitable to leave them intact, but that's a thought in process.

But tangentially, why do you suppose ESPN wants those SEC/ACC match ups?
Yes there is the keeping the money in house angle, but they are also handicapping the ability of the SEC or ACC to get two in and propping up the PAC and Big 10 thereby hedging their risk that all 4 regions will not be involved in the CFP. When just 1 region is not represented the numbers sag.

It would not be inconceivable that Florida State and Clemson or Auburn and Alabama could make the playoffs with SOS and just 1 loss. So if you schedule Alabama against F.S.U. and Auburn against Clemson you cut that chance down to virtually nil that more than two of those schools emerge at the end of the season in position for make the CFP.

Those damned games are being scheduled to handicap the placement of the PAC and Big 10 champs.

Check out Wisconsin's schedule. They are a virtual shoe in for the Big 10 CCG. Nebraska has the much harder track and Penn State might as well be playing in the SEC West. But Nebraska isn't the national draw it once was and Penn State is somewhat more of a box office poison since the Sandusky scandal. So we have set up in the Big 10 the winner of Michigan / Ohio State to play Wisconsin in the finals. We have scheduled out the possibility that more than two of Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, and Clemson will be contending at the end. With an upset or two none of them might be in position even if they win their conference.

I lay all of that at the feet of ESPN which figures these potentialities out, and then dangles cash to get the conferences to agree to an arrangement that is designed to yield particular scenarios that ESPN intends to exploit.

So I am in complete agreement that we need those games against the Big 10 or PAC and not the ACC/SEC match ups. ESPN wanted to get away from the early season Big 10 vs Alabama games. It left a Big 10 front-runner in the dirt at the start of the season. When Ohio State beats Oklahoma it kills the Big 12 off early this year. OSU will have to be perfect to make it in. And none of this is by accident. They may not be able to control the outcomes, but they sure know how to set the table!

This is an nice take on an important angle. As much as us Southerners are proud of our college football, let's face it - it would be TV ratings poison to have 4 Southern teams in the playoffs.

That said, there is an obvious solution: champs-only. Guarantee one team from each region. You could even set it up as the winner of the Pac/B1G vs. the winner of the ACC/SEC to guarantee 2 regions in the finals as well. Do that and regular season games won't mess up the playoffs, no matter the outcome (but conference games would become even MORE important if the champ had an automatic bid).

Just my 2 cents...
08-24-2017 07:29 AM
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murrdcu Offline
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Post: #13
RE: 8-21 Fluge's BTM email
(08-21-2017 03:42 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-21-2017 02:35 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  
(08-21-2017 12:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-21-2017 10:48 AM)murrdcu Wrote:  Greg Flugaur @flugempire
·
10m
Obvious take on BTM's info this morning..

Joe Castiglione is the canary-in-coal mine internally at University of Oklahoma.




Greg Flugaur
Greg Flugaur @flugempire
·
29m
BTM
Active B10 advocates for OU receiving invite in 2022/23
WI President, Alvarez
Ohio State, Nebraska AD's Smith & Eichorst
MSU AD Hollis.

3


1

Greg Flugaur
Greg Flugaur @flugempire
·
29m
BTM
Joe Castiglione is Pro-Big Ten. OU Placing Castiglione as President is placing OU in Big Ten. OU has heavy B10 support.

Greg Flugaur @flugempire
·
30m
BTM
Big Ten perception:
Presidential Succession at University of Oklahoma resulting in Joe Castiglione as new President looking more likely

1


1

Greg Flugaur
Greg Flugaur @flugempire
·
48m
Woah...

BTM has just sent me current Big Ten perception on expansion landscape.

Stand by...




So an Athletic Director is going to take over the entire University by becoming President? Not sure that has ever happened. Might as well give Bob Stoops the University's President spot once Boren steps down as he's probably just as qualified.

If any tweet has ever proven that the Dude of Gopher knows nothing then this one is it. For once the other Dude may be more accurate in his predictions of who is on the B1G's wish list. But I think that list is dated by about 7 or 8 years.

The only way I see Oklahoma headed to the Big 10 is if they can land Texas and Texas wants the Sooners as their travel buddy. So I don't see much of a chance.

BTW: G. Poole is the progenitor of Leather Helmet blog but has been acquaintance of the Dude for about a decade.

Poole and the Dude of WV have done several podcasts together over the years as well as published realignment articles. I believe Poole sold that blog but might still work there. Seems unlikely a Georgia blogger would be the Dude's "B1G source". JR, why did you bring this up?

He probably did sell it, or a portion of it, and I knew he still operated part of it. His old format was fun. There would be a blog piece instead of a thread and then everyone could comment. I wrote a few blogs for him when it was under the old format. One of them got picked up nationally. I had a lot of fun there and they had some great posters. I was actually asked one time if I would like to be a part of one of those podcasts. That wasn't my cup of tea.

10 years ago Lambert had some connections and some credible information. But at the height of the pre Big 12 invitation in the 2010 pre realignment phase he picked up MHver3 got hooked up with Tuxedo Yoda and it all got to be a big circle jerk of conflated information and wild speculation. They started driving hits instead of simply passing on information. That's where he lost his credibility.

I was interested in realignment because I saw the market model as a ploy to break up large states with influence and to divide states between conferences to keep conferences from fully being able to leverage a state's commercial value. It was a winning strategy for the networks only. You will note that ESPN managed to own all of the properties within the ACC & SEC states, but kept most of the states from being a monopoly for the conference. That's why UNC fights any thought that includes N.C. State or another Carolina school from heading to another conference and why Virginia now does the same. Virginia and North Carolina as a block is almost 3/4's as large as Texas in terms of population It is why ESPN permits the perpetuation of the "gentlemen's agreement myth", and why they worked behind the scenes in '91 to keep F.S.U. out of the SEC. They didn't want to negotiate with an SEC that owned the state of Florida.

So I didn't agree with the concept of the market model because it was a ruse. Content is all that ever ultimately mattered because it is the # of eyes on an event that drives that events value. Holding all of the key schools in a state is another way to maximize ad revenue through leverage. If an advertiser wants to reach the markets in that state it has to go through one conference to do so. ESPN hated that. Poole and the Dude were sold on it. I didn't want to be in constant disagreement with them. But time has proven me to be correct, and moving forward even more so. I stated prior to 2010 that the networks would switch from the market model and do so to a pay model based solely on content value and that when that happened there would be many schools and conferences that would catch the short end of the stick. Well it's about to happen.

My information has always come from knowing who the players were, having family and friends literally in the know, and using reason. All I ever wanted to see the SEC do was to add the best possible brands. It was and is the safest way to expand.

Frank the Tank did a great piece back about that time on the priorities of the Big 10 as it pertained to realignment. Oklahoma didn't make that list. The Dude made a big deal about Frank's list without giving Frank much, if any credit. Frank's list then was worked around the market model.

Obviously Texas and Notre Dame would be massive content adds that also carried significant market presence. If Oklahoma has gained steam it is because of content value.

Personally I think that Delany is doing what he has always done, fake left when he wants to drive right. I think Kansas and Oklahoma is a misdirection.
The Big 10 would probably take Kansas to get to Texas. But the only way they take Oklahoma is if Texas insists upon it. That means Texas has to want to head to the Big 10. They don't. So,... no Oklahoma either.

I think the Big 10 might make another run at Virginia, Notre Dame, and North Carolina. I know the ACC GOR doesn't expire until 2036, but that will only be 10 years away after then next round of expansions. Who knows? They could make a pitch for the combination of any of these: Colorado, Missouri, Kansas, or Oklahoma. Remember the PAC rights expire at the same time. They would gain a lot from the additions of Colorado & one of the others.

In the end the Big 10 like the SEC will go for brands. Delany got hoodooed with the market additions of Rutgers & Maryland (which were a nod to Penn State). Next time around they will be going for content.

Could Delany throw a curve ball and add Kansas and McGill the next go round? I'm sure the Canadian school would have to play catch up on facilities, but their 40k student body might be too much to pass up including AAU status.
08-25-2017 10:17 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #14
RE: 8-21 Fluge's BTM email
(08-24-2017 07:29 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(08-22-2017 03:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-22-2017 01:08 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-22-2017 11:46 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-22-2017 11:25 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I bring attention to the bolded part because that's one of the reasons I could see Texas ending up in the ACC. ESPN probably fears on some level an SEC with the top brands in TX including the Oklahomas, Arkansas, and LSU.

It's not going to make a lot of sense on many fronts for UT to head there, but if pride gets in the way I could see them taking ESPN's carrot.

I agree, and it's all the more reason that Sankey needs to be tough about who we will and won't take this go around.

Since '91 we've made our list quite clear. I think ESPN has screwed around with it way too much already and it's time we draw a line in the sand. With the CBS contract up in 2034 we do have some leverage.

I think there's a few other things we could do as well to disrupt their operation.

The negotiation for the T1 is a big one, but I think we could also refuse to schedule as many ACC opponents out of conference. The in-state rivalries should remain, of course, but all these extra games should be played with other leagues. That's an immediate dip in content for ESPN...

I would offer as well that a meeting of the minds with B1G officials on a way to carve up the ACC in the future should be undertaken at that point. If we can't trust ESPN to look out for our best interests then we need to look out for our own.

Again I agree to an extent. I'm still weighing the division of the ACC. It might be more profitable to leave them intact, but that's a thought in process.

But tangentially, why do you suppose ESPN wants those SEC/ACC match ups?
Yes there is the keeping the money in house angle, but they are also handicapping the ability of the SEC or ACC to get two in and propping up the PAC and Big 10 thereby hedging their risk that all 4 regions will not be involved in the CFP. When just 1 region is not represented the numbers sag.

It would not be inconceivable that Florida State and Clemson or Auburn and Alabama could make the playoffs with SOS and just 1 loss. So if you schedule Alabama against F.S.U. and Auburn against Clemson you cut that chance down to virtually nil that more than two of those schools emerge at the end of the season in position for make the CFP.

Those damned games are being scheduled to handicap the placement of the PAC and Big 10 champs.

Check out Wisconsin's schedule. They are a virtual shoe in for the Big 10 CCG. Nebraska has the much harder track and Penn State might as well be playing in the SEC West. But Nebraska isn't the national draw it once was and Penn State is somewhat more of a box office poison since the Sandusky scandal. So we have set up in the Big 10 the winner of Michigan / Ohio State to play Wisconsin in the finals. We have scheduled out the possibility that more than two of Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, and Clemson will be contending at the end. With an upset or two none of them might be in position even if they win their conference.

I lay all of that at the feet of ESPN which figures these potentialities out, and then dangles cash to get the conferences to agree to an arrangement that is designed to yield particular scenarios that ESPN intends to exploit.

So I am in complete agreement that we need those games against the Big 10 or PAC and not the ACC/SEC match ups. ESPN wanted to get away from the early season Big 10 vs Alabama games. It left a Big 10 front-runner in the dirt at the start of the season. When Ohio State beats Oklahoma it kills the Big 12 off early this year. OSU will have to be perfect to make it in. And none of this is by accident. They may not be able to control the outcomes, but they sure know how to set the table!

This is an nice take on an important angle. As much as us Southerners are proud of our college football, let's face it - it would be TV ratings poison to have 4 Southern teams in the playoffs.

That said, there is an obvious solution: champs-only. Guarantee one team from each region. You could even set it up as the winner of the Pac/B1G vs. the winner of the ACC/SEC to guarantee 2 regions in the finals as well. Do that and regular season games won't mess up the playoffs, no matter the outcome (but conference games would become even MORE important if the champ had an automatic bid).

Just my 2 cents...

Mark I'm one of the few SEC posters which has been consistently for champs only. And I agree that just making the Sugar Bowl the ACC/SEC playoff and the Rose Bowl the PAC/B1G playoff would make a pile of sense.

However Bowl politics and network involvement isn't ready to relent on that.
08-25-2017 12:12 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #15
RE: 8-21 Fluge's BTM email
Here is what we know as of today re: B1G

Osborne mentions Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State
Does not mention Oklahoma or Oklahoma State

“And we have a lot of friends in the Big 12 [in] a lot of the regent schools like Kansas and Kansas State and Iowa State.

https://www.landof10.com/nebraska/expans...ng-big-ten

Kansas invests $300 million in their football program
(you don't do that to join the MWC or even stay in an unstable Big 12)
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...out-there/

Would the B1G stop at 15? They have played odd number before or invest in Kansas and Iowa State (two AAU schools that are contiguous) and make a nice pod for Nebraska to be successful (Nebraska, Iowa, Iowa State and Kansas). Very compact and regional and negates Missouri in most of their own market.

The ACC wants Notre Dame to join as a full member
Notre Dame likes the status quo

ESPN needs Texas to join the ACC
Texas wants a Notre Dame type deal
The ACC/ESPN know that if Texas gets a Notre Dame deal, it will be impossible to get Notre Dame to move to to full time.
If Notre Dame caves in first, Texas won't be a problem
If the ACC gives in they want to be paid "extra" for the next 20 years
The only way that Texas can bring a "friend" is if they consent to join as full members and Notre Dame can stay a partial

The SEC will have to take Oklahoma State to preserve Bedlam and placate Oklahoma.
Oklahoma, Texas and either Oklahoma State or Texas Tech to the PAC for 15? Not very likely with the politics and money issues.

And so we wait for somebody to blink...............
08-25-2017 02:28 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #16
RE: 8-21 Fluge's BTM email
(08-25-2017 10:17 AM)murrdcu Wrote:  
(08-21-2017 03:42 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-21-2017 02:35 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  
(08-21-2017 12:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-21-2017 10:48 AM)murrdcu Wrote:  Greg Flugaur @flugempire
·
10m
Obvious take on BTM's info this morning..

Joe Castiglione is the canary-in-coal mine internally at University of Oklahoma.




Greg Flugaur
Greg Flugaur @flugempire
·
29m
BTM
Active B10 advocates for OU receiving invite in 2022/23
WI President, Alvarez
Ohio State, Nebraska AD's Smith & Eichorst
MSU AD Hollis.

3


1

Greg Flugaur
Greg Flugaur @flugempire
·
29m
BTM
Joe Castiglione is Pro-Big Ten. OU Placing Castiglione as President is placing OU in Big Ten. OU has heavy B10 support.

Greg Flugaur @flugempire
·
30m
BTM
Big Ten perception:
Presidential Succession at University of Oklahoma resulting in Joe Castiglione as new President looking more likely

1


1

Greg Flugaur
Greg Flugaur @flugempire
·
48m
Woah...

BTM has just sent me current Big Ten perception on expansion landscape.

Stand by...




So an Athletic Director is going to take over the entire University by becoming President? Not sure that has ever happened. Might as well give Bob Stoops the University's President spot once Boren steps down as he's probably just as qualified.

If any tweet has ever proven that the Dude of Gopher knows nothing then this one is it. For once the other Dude may be more accurate in his predictions of who is on the B1G's wish list. But I think that list is dated by about 7 or 8 years.

The only way I see Oklahoma headed to the Big 10 is if they can land Texas and Texas wants the Sooners as their travel buddy. So I don't see much of a chance.

BTW: G. Poole is the progenitor of Leather Helmet blog but has been acquaintance of the Dude for about a decade.

Poole and the Dude of WV have done several podcasts together over the years as well as published realignment articles. I believe Poole sold that blog but might still work there. Seems unlikely a Georgia blogger would be the Dude's "B1G source". JR, why did you bring this up?

He probably did sell it, or a portion of it, and I knew he still operated part of it. His old format was fun. There would be a blog piece instead of a thread and then everyone could comment. I wrote a few blogs for him when it was under the old format. One of them got picked up nationally. I had a lot of fun there and they had some great posters. I was actually asked one time if I would like to be a part of one of those podcasts. That wasn't my cup of tea.

10 years ago Lambert had some connections and some credible information. But at the height of the pre Big 12 invitation in the 2010 pre realignment phase he picked up MHver3 got hooked up with Tuxedo Yoda and it all got to be a big circle jerk of conflated information and wild speculation. They started driving hits instead of simply passing on information. That's where he lost his credibility.

I was interested in realignment because I saw the market model as a ploy to break up large states with influence and to divide states between conferences to keep conferences from fully being able to leverage a state's commercial value. It was a winning strategy for the networks only. You will note that ESPN managed to own all of the properties within the ACC & SEC states, but kept most of the states from being a monopoly for the conference. That's why UNC fights any thought that includes N.C. State or another Carolina school from heading to another conference and why Virginia now does the same. Virginia and North Carolina as a block is almost 3/4's as large as Texas in terms of population It is why ESPN permits the perpetuation of the "gentlemen's agreement myth", and why they worked behind the scenes in '91 to keep F.S.U. out of the SEC. They didn't want to negotiate with an SEC that owned the state of Florida.

So I didn't agree with the concept of the market model because it was a ruse. Content is all that ever ultimately mattered because it is the # of eyes on an event that drives that events value. Holding all of the key schools in a state is another way to maximize ad revenue through leverage. If an advertiser wants to reach the markets in that state it has to go through one conference to do so. ESPN hated that. Poole and the Dude were sold on it. I didn't want to be in constant disagreement with them. But time has proven me to be correct, and moving forward even more so. I stated prior to 2010 that the networks would switch from the market model and do so to a pay model based solely on content value and that when that happened there would be many schools and conferences that would catch the short end of the stick. Well it's about to happen.

My information has always come from knowing who the players were, having family and friends literally in the know, and using reason. All I ever wanted to see the SEC do was to add the best possible brands. It was and is the safest way to expand.

Frank the Tank did a great piece back about that time on the priorities of the Big 10 as it pertained to realignment. Oklahoma didn't make that list. The Dude made a big deal about Frank's list without giving Frank much, if any credit. Frank's list then was worked around the market model.

Obviously Texas and Notre Dame would be massive content adds that also carried significant market presence. If Oklahoma has gained steam it is because of content value.

Personally I think that Delany is doing what he has always done, fake left when he wants to drive right. I think Kansas and Oklahoma is a misdirection.
The Big 10 would probably take Kansas to get to Texas. But the only way they take Oklahoma is if Texas insists upon it. That means Texas has to want to head to the Big 10. They don't. So,... no Oklahoma either.

I think the Big 10 might make another run at Virginia, Notre Dame, and North Carolina. I know the ACC GOR doesn't expire until 2036, but that will only be 10 years away after then next round of expansions. Who knows? They could make a pitch for the combination of any of these: Colorado, Missouri, Kansas, or Oklahoma. Remember the PAC rights expire at the same time. They would gain a lot from the additions of Colorado & one of the others.

In the end the Big 10 like the SEC will go for brands. Delany got hoodooed with the market additions of Rutgers & Maryland (which were a nod to Penn State). Next time around they will be going for content.

Could Delany throw a curve ball and add Kansas and McGill the next go round? I'm sure the Canadian school would have to play catch up on facilities, but their 40k student body might be too much to pass up including AAU status.

I would never rule out the inclusion of Canadian schools in one of our conferences, but there are some other hurdles to overcome. They simply don't contribute to football and campus sports like we do. They are massively behind in this regard. The catch up would not just be in facilities. Most of the Canadian schools would have a hard time competing in the Ivy League with regards to sports funding, except maybe hockey of course.
(This post was last modified: 08-25-2017 03:13 PM by JRsec.)
08-25-2017 03:12 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #17
RE: 8-21 Fluge's BTM email
(08-25-2017 02:28 PM)XLance Wrote:  Here is what we know as of today re: B1G

Osborne mentions Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State
Does not mention Oklahoma or Oklahoma State

“And we have a lot of friends in the Big 12 [in] a lot of the regent schools like Kansas and Kansas State and Iowa State.

https://www.landof10.com/nebraska/expans...ng-big-ten

Kansas invests $300 million in their football program
(you don't do that to join the MWC or even stay in an unstable Big 12)
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...out-there/

Would the B1G stop at 15? They have played odd number before or invest in Kansas and Iowa State (two AAU schools that are contiguous) and make a nice pod for Nebraska to be successful (Nebraska, Iowa, Iowa State and Kansas). Very compact and regional and negates Missouri in most of their own market.

The ACC wants Notre Dame to join as a full member
Notre Dame likes the status quo

ESPN needs Texas to join the ACC
Texas wants a Notre Dame type deal
The ACC/ESPN know that if Texas gets a Notre Dame deal, it will be impossible to get Notre Dame to move to to full time.
If Notre Dame caves in first, Texas won't be a problem
If the ACC gives in they want to be paid "extra" for the next 20 years
The only way that Texas can bring a "friend" is if they consent to join as full members and Notre Dame can stay a partial

The SEC will have to take Oklahoma State to preserve Bedlam and placate Oklahoma.
Oklahoma, Texas and either Oklahoma State or Texas Tech to the PAC for 15? Not very likely with the politics and money issues.

And so we wait for somebody to blink...............

Yeah, that's about it. But remember the real issue with Notre Dame is how will the ACC find a way to incorporate them into their playoff structure? If the Big 12 takes the last roundup and we move to a P4 I assure you we will move to a champs only model.

So X what the folks in the ACC need to do is vote for the champs only model to guarantee an ACC entrant every year. The Big 10, SEC, and PAC will see the writing on the wall and do the same. That means the Irish have no port of special privileges in which to anchor. The ACC won't even have to ask them to join. Just set up your playoff structure for the conference take in Texas as a full member, and let the entry to Tech/TCU hang out there as a possibility and watch the Irish have a come to Touchdown Jesus moment.

So the issue here is getting Texas, and being prepared to move to 18 in the process. If Texas gets last minute ballsy over the full inclusion of the Irish and insists anyway that you take another Texas school then just be prepared to do it, rope in the Irish, and have a spot left either for yet another Texas buddy or West Virginia who the Horns could not openly object to after Luck's Eer's pulled the Big 12's TV contract out of the fire in 2012.
08-25-2017 03:23 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #18
RE: 8-21 Fluge's BTM email
(08-25-2017 03:23 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-25-2017 02:28 PM)XLance Wrote:  Here is what we know as of today re: B1G

Osborne mentions Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State
Does not mention Oklahoma or Oklahoma State

“And we have a lot of friends in the Big 12 [in] a lot of the regent schools like Kansas and Kansas State and Iowa State.

https://www.landof10.com/nebraska/expans...ng-big-ten

Kansas invests $300 million in their football program
(you don't do that to join the MWC or even stay in an unstable Big 12)
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...out-there/

Would the B1G stop at 15? They have played odd number before or invest in Kansas and Iowa State (two AAU schools that are contiguous) and make a nice pod for Nebraska to be successful (Nebraska, Iowa, Iowa State and Kansas). Very compact and regional and negates Missouri in most of their own market.

The ACC wants Notre Dame to join as a full member
Notre Dame likes the status quo

ESPN needs Texas to join the ACC
Texas wants a Notre Dame type deal
The ACC/ESPN know that if Texas gets a Notre Dame deal, it will be impossible to get Notre Dame to move to to full time.
If Notre Dame caves in first, Texas won't be a problem
If the ACC gives in they want to be paid "extra" for the next 20 years
The only way that Texas can bring a "friend" is if they consent to join as full members and Notre Dame can stay a partial

The SEC will have to take Oklahoma State to preserve Bedlam and placate Oklahoma.
Oklahoma, Texas and either Oklahoma State or Texas Tech to the PAC for 15? Not very likely with the politics and money issues.

And so we wait for somebody to blink...............

Yeah, that's about it. But remember the real issue with Notre Dame is how will the ACC find a way to incorporate them into their playoff structure? If the Big 12 takes the last roundup and we move to a P4 I assure you we will move to a champs only model.

So X what the folks in the ACC need to do is vote for the champs only model to guarantee an ACC entrant every year. The Big 10, SEC, and PAC will see the writing on the wall and do the same. That means the Irish have no port of special privileges in which to anchor. The ACC won't even have to ask them to join. Just set up your playoff structure for the conference take in Texas as a full member, and let the entry to Tech/TCU hang out there as a possibility and watch the Irish have a come to Touchdown Jesus moment.

So the issue here is getting Texas, and being prepared to move to 18 in the process. If Texas gets last minute ballsy over the full inclusion of the Irish and insists anyway that you take another Texas school then just be prepared to do it, rope in the Irish, and have a spot left either for yet another Texas buddy or West Virginia who the Horns could not openly object to after Luck's Eer's pulled the Big 12's TV contract out of the fire in 2012.

Texas might not object to West Virginia, but UVa, Wake Forest and Duke are singing a different tune. And Notre Dame has already said that they won't go back to Morgantown.
(This post was last modified: 08-25-2017 04:10 PM by XLance.)
08-25-2017 04:08 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #19
RE: 8-21 Fluge's BTM email
(08-25-2017 04:08 PM)XLance Wrote:  Texas might not object to West Virginia, but UVa, Wake Forest and Duke are singing a different tune. And Notre Dame has already said that they won't go back to Morgantown.

Personally, I'm fine with the SEC taking West Virginia. There are certain metrics they don't meet, but that can be remedied in time and they're already working on some of them.

Actually, in the world of streaming, it might be nice to have more fans in that region of the country as their fans are spread throughout the Mid-Atlantic. Not like we're getting into NC or VA anytime soon anyway. That and WVU could play some neutral site games in DC or something and attract additional attention in that region of the country.

If I was the ACC though, I would hold a hard line on Notre Dame. There is ultimately no good reason they can't join your league unless you just decide to let them have special treatment. There's nowhere else for them to go once the Big 12 is done.
08-25-2017 04:15 PM
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murrdcu Offline
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Post: #20
RE: 8-21 Fluge's BTM email
(08-25-2017 02:28 PM)XLance Wrote:  Here is what we know as of today re: B1G

Osborne mentions Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State
Does not mention Oklahoma or Oklahoma State

“And we have a lot of friends in the Big 12 [in] a lot of the regent schools like Kansas and Kansas State and Iowa State.

https://www.landof10.com/nebraska/expans...ng-big-ten

Kansas invests $300 million in their football program
(you don't do that to join the MWC or even stay in an unstable Big 12)
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...out-there/

Would the B1G stop at 15? They have played odd number before or invest in Kansas and Iowa State (two AAU schools that are contiguous) and make a nice pod for Nebraska to be successful (Nebraska, Iowa, Iowa State and Kansas). Very compact and regional and negates Missouri in most of their own market.

The ACC wants Notre Dame to join as a full member
Notre Dame likes the status quo

ESPN needs Texas to join the ACC
Texas wants a Notre Dame type deal
The ACC/ESPN know that if Texas gets a Notre Dame deal, it will be impossible to get Notre Dame to move to to full time.
If Notre Dame caves in first, Texas won't be a problem
If the ACC gives in they want to be paid "extra" for the next 20 years
The only way that Texas can bring a "friend" is if they consent to join as full members and Notre Dame can stay a partial

The SEC will have to take Oklahoma State to preserve Bedlam and placate Oklahoma.
Oklahoma, Texas and either Oklahoma State or Texas Tech to the PAC for 15? Not very likely with the politics and money issues.

And so we wait for somebody to blink...............

Assume OU and OSU join the SEC. The B12 losses, per Thamel's fan and market numbers from his NY Times article written years ago, 1.92 Million fans ( OU = 1.2M & OSU = 719k). There is no two non P5 schools that could replace all those lost fans/viewers. The B12 would cave into Texas' demands and grant them partial membership, like Notre Dame in ACC, but access to the B12 ccg. The B12 could add three schools UConn (618k), BYU (709k), and Boise State (483k) to bring back 1.81M viewers/fans back into the conference. UCF and USF were 507k and 520k respectively.

Using Thamel's fan numbers and cable box subscription numbers, the SEC's next round of expansion candidates probably ranks as the following:
1. Texas--2.25M fans and great Teir I matches. Probably DQ'd by A&M.
2. Virginia Tech--1.3M fans, penetration into Virginia and D.C. markets. Solid football program, but wouldn't enhance T1 as much as a blue blood would.
3. Oklahoma--1.2M fans, new state, blue blood creates tons on T1 content. Might require adding OSU too.
4. North Carolina--958k fans, new state, AAU, basketball blue blood, football program average at best, blue blood basketball, might require Duke (536k) if they ever left ACC
5. West Virginia--959k fans, competitive in both money sports, rabid fan base, small state, but fans spread across the region
6. Oklahoma State--719k fans, same markets as OU, strong support and travel from fan base

Not considered: PAC-12 and Big Ten schools. FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech due to ESPN needing a strong base to support its new network. Maybe in 2030's FSU could be considered for a move.

The SEC would expand for any of the top 4 choices and then round out with the best available.

https://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/0...ent-chaos/
08-25-2017 04:23 PM
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