Personally very concerned about our kicking/punting on special teams, which were pretty darn bad toward the end of the season last year. And as great as Tommy McKee may be at punting, he's no Hunter Windmuller.

Our returning place kicker Kris Hooper boasted the lowest FG % in the league last season (62%), #12 of 12 -- connecting on 5 of 8 career kicks, and a long of 42. Now, I know how much a PK can improve from one season to the next (e.g. John Carpenter), but Hooper isn't instilling a lot of confidence out of the gate.

If we constantly give up 15+ yards to opposing teams on poor punts, and we can't consistently kick 35-40 yard FGs -- forget the questions about how good our offense and defense will be. That's not a winning formula for success.

Thoughts?

(08-21-2017 08:02 PM)WMSportsBlog Wrote:  Personally very concerned about our kicking/punting on special teams, which were pretty darn bad toward the end of the season last year. And as great as Tommy McKee may be at punting, he's no Hunter Windmuller.

Our returning place kicker Kris Hooper boasted the lowest FG % in the league last season (62%), #12 of 12 -- connecting on 5 of 8 career kicks, and a long of 42. Now, I know how much a PK can improve from one season to the next (e.g. John Carpenter), but Hooper isn't instilling a lot of confidence out of the gate.

If we constantly give up 15+ yards to opposing teams on poor punts, and we can't consistently kick 35-40 yard FGs -- forget the questions about how good our offense and defense will be. That's not a winning formula for success.

Thoughts?

To be fair to Hooper, his first game was against UNH in a rainy weather game and was 0-2 in that game. After that, he was 5 of 6 (42 yarder was blocked/ not sure if bad blocking or low kick)

Punting I agree with.

We'll just get first downs and put Tommy on ice.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

6-5, wins over Norfolk St., Bucknell, Stony Brook, Elon, New Hampshire, Towson.

Might be able to get to 7-4 if they can manage a road win against Delaware or Maine.

(08-21-2017 01:10 PM)WM Beancounter Wrote:  

(08-21-2017 10:21 AM)nj alum Wrote:  

(08-21-2017 09:08 AM)WM Beancounter Wrote:  3-8

Hush!

Now, start drinking your Kool-Aid!

Ha! Don't get me wrong, I'd much rather see 8-3, and I will attend all 5 home games plus @UVa & @UR no matter how good or bad our boys are. But I see us beating NSU, Bucknell, and 1 random CAA game (please be Richmond!), and that's it. This league is as tough as ever this year, and we're going to do battle armed with (potentially) a true freshman QB, no experience at RB, no punter, holes all over the defense and a veritable child at Offensive Coordinator. I just don't see how anyone not piss drunk on Kool Aid realistically thinks this is a playoff team, much less a .500 team.

But hey, I'll be there in Charlottesville next weekend, yelling my lungs out.

I am banking on a win @ Elon since this might be my only game this season. I saw the loss to Elon @ Cary last season, so we owe them one, big time.

Go Tribe!

The new OC being young and energetic will not only motivate the players but bring back some of the enthusiasm the teams he played on in 2009 and 2010 showed. Remember our 2010 team was ranked #1 late in the season plus had the #2 seed in the NCAA. A healthy Dedmon and creative play calling with lot of luck and from darkness comes light...........

(08-22-2017 07:14 AM)wmmii Wrote:  The new OC being young and energetic will not only motivate the players but bring back some of the enthusiasm the teams he played on in 2009 and 2010 showed. Remember our 2010 team was ranked #1 late in the season plus had the #2 seed in the NCAA. A healthy Dedmon and creative play calling with lot of luck and from darkness comes light...........

I echo the young OC being a positive. Mangas is a Tribe guy, knows the offense cold from his playing days/last few years as RB coach and was mentored by Kevin Rodgers. Young coaches are everywhere in the NFL right now...why couldnt that work here?

When our top players are receivers (i.e., Musinski), the results usually do not impress.

We need to be able to STOP people. If we can't, and I have seen little excitement here on our defense, then we will struggle to reach 5 wins.

(08-22-2017 11:29 AM)Sitting bull Wrote:  When our top players are receivers (i.e., Musinski), the results usually do not impress.

We need to be able to STOP people. If we can't, and I have seen little excitement here on our defense, then we will struggle to reach 5 wins.

Last year's defense was a bit of an oddity in that it was really good against the pass but couldn't stop the run at all. Even stranger was their success against the pass despite not having a functional pass rush. It's easy to say that teams just ran it every down and while that is true W&M still held opponents to 55% completion and 6 YPA. This is a big part of why W&M didn't give up an obscene number of points and were in just about every game they played- teams could move the ball, but they couldn't pick up big chunks of yards at a time so they had to either manufacture drives or take advantage of short fields from turnovers/special teams miscues (of which there were many). Opponents started drives on W&M's side of the field 20 times. 9 of those turned into TDs, 1 FG, 4 punts, 2 picks, a fumble, a turnover on downs, and 2 times the game ended with the opponent never giving the ball back. There were also a punt return and kickoff return for TDs. There were three games where the opponent never started a drive on W&M's side of the field- NSU, Delaware and Richmond. In a total coincidence the defense played pretty well in those games. I don't know how that compares to other teams because I have to go through game logs and do it manually but that feels like a lot of easy opportunities comparatively. This is my way of saying that the 2016 defense wasn't quite as bad as people think but it still had a glaring flaw that was exposed over and over. W&M was outscored by 28 points in the first quarter last season, so it looks like teams got out to quick leads and could pick at that scab even more while the W&M offense had to try to throw even though Cluley had a brain parasite rendering him unable to see colors (it's the only explanation for his regression last year).

Looking forward, they probably won't be as bad against the run but there may be some regression against the pass (that might be offset if W&M remembers how to rush the passer). If W&M's just 10% better against the run and only 10% worse against the pass that might be good enough if they can find a pass rush and get the offense to work.

I actually really like our defense this season. We return a ton of experience everywhere. There isn't a single slotted starter that lacks significant playing time in the program. The d-line has to be better, not just because of positive regression but also because Johnson, Murray, Suarez, Campbell, etc. are all a year older. It's a deep rotation and Andrews was just saying how he loves playing a lot of guys. If we can find a 2nd corner out of Smith/Dykes/Lewis (and I think we can), the defense will be a solid unit.

I think we have to be more concerned about the OL. Many players were hurt today and the replacement OL players got slaughtered by the defense today at practice.

It looks like this board is in mid-season form.

I'm just thankful football season is here! I hear the team has worked hard this off season and they've continued to work hard during camp.

Like the rest of you I want a successful season, everyone's definition is different. I would be absolutely thrilled if we finished 7-4, very happy with 6-5.

The personnel changes on the team and the coaching staff will take time to hit their stride.

Put together a chart of what W&M did relative to their opponents last year.



Just to explain a little about what you're looking at: the first 5 columns are what opposing offenses did, the last 5 are what their defenses did. The "W&M" row is W&M's stats cross-matched against the opposition, so basically the W&M defensive stats against the average offensive stats of their opponents and Tribe offensive stats against the defenses they faced. Green numbers are ones where W&M outperformed the opposing defenses, red numbers indicate underperformance relative to the opposition. (I thought about color-coding the individual numbers to indicate what W&M did in their games against that opponent but that's more work and I'm worried the chart would be too busy.)

W&M's pass defense still looks impressive but not quite as impressive. Other than the rush defense and passing yards allowed that stat profile looks like that of an average team. There's reason to be either optimistic or pessimistic about this coming season. I think the lesson here is "nothing matters if you can't keep your opponent under 5 yards/carry".

(08-22-2017 03:56 PM)tribefbfan Wrote:  It looks like this board is in mid-season form.

I'm just thankful football season is here! I hear the team has worked hard this off season and they've continued to work hard during camp.

Like the rest of you I want a successful season, everyone's definition is different. I would be absolutely thrilled if we finished 7-4, very happy with 6-5.

The personnel changes on the team and the coaching staff will take time to hit their stride.

I won't be happy with anything short of a playoff berth. Anything less is an awful season as far as I'm concerned.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Isn't tomorrow (Wednesday) the day Jimmye reveals the first string qb?

(08-22-2017 06:18 PM)BigTribe3 Wrote:  Isn't tomorrow (Wednesday) the day Jimmye reveals the first string qb?

Makes decision? Probably. Reveals? Possible, but unlikely. We all know Jimmye, he likes to build suspense.

(08-22-2017 06:02 PM)Tribal Wrote:  

(08-22-2017 03:56 PM)tribefbfan Wrote:  It looks like this board is in mid-season form.

I'm just thankful football season is here! I hear the team has worked hard this off season and they've continued to work hard during camp.

Like the rest of you I want a successful season, everyone's definition is different. I would be absolutely thrilled if we finished 7-4, very happy with 6-5.

The personnel changes on the team and the coaching staff will take time to hit their stride.

I won't be happy with anything short of a playoff berth. Anything less is an awful season as far as I'm concerned.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Man, you are a tough one to please! 7-4 could get us in the Playoffs, but 8-3 would be better. Upsets happen, injuries happen, stars come out of no where. That's why we play each Saturday.

(08-22-2017 06:18 PM)BigTribe3 Wrote:  Isn't tomorrow (Wednesday) the day Jimmye reveals the first string qb?

I doubt it.

I believe the exact quote was “I would hope by next Wednesday. And we might have to say, ‘This is where we’re going.’ Or we might say, ‘OK, we’re going to play two.’ It’s not necessarily what I would want, but I don’t know.”

(08-22-2017 05:25 PM)Rocco Wrote:  Put together a chart of what W&M did relative to their opponents last year.



Just to explain a little about what you're looking at: the first 5 columns are what opposing offenses did, the last 5 are what their defenses did. The "W&M" row is W&M's stats cross-matched against the opposition, so basically the W&M defensive stats against the average offensive stats of their opponents and Tribe offensive stats against the defenses they faced. Green numbers are ones where W&M outperformed the opposing defenses, red numbers indicate underperformance relative to the opposition. (I thought about color-coding the individual numbers to indicate what W&M did in their games against that opponent but that's more work and I'm worried the chart would be too busy.)

W&M's pass defense still looks impressive but not quite as impressive. Other than the rush defense and passing yards allowed that stat profile looks like that of an average team. There's reason to be either optimistic or pessimistic about this coming season. I think the lesson here is "nothing matters if you can't keep your opponent under 5 yards/carry".

Great look into the stats here. Thanks for compiling.

15-0 with a National Championship! (hey, if you can't think big and be optimistic in preseason then when can you do it?).

I do think 9-2, with EVERYTHING breaking our way. That includes a win over Madison at homecoming. (We do NOT, will NOT, lose to JMU at our own homecoming. (I hope they didn't buy too many of the tickets........)). It includes a win over Delaware because it is Rocco's first season there and hopefully he hasn't ironed out all the kinks yet. It includes a home win over UNH, who I think was extremely lucky to make the playoffs the last two years (is the UNH AD on the committee?). The losses would be to UVa (although I think we could win there with the kind of fortuitous bounces and turnover recoveries that an FCS always needs against an FBS) and to UR (although hopefully Huesman won't have our number the way Rocco did). Didn't Huesman coach at W&M in the 80's or 90's?

So, yes, WHY NOT DREAM BIG!!!!!