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The Great Chase for Texas
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BePcr07 Online
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Post: #11
RE: The Great Chase for Texas
(08-17-2017 09:19 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(08-17-2017 07:07 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  One option not mentioned so far: Texas as a true independent.

If their T1 and 2 games are worth $35-40 mil, then this is a legitimate option.

Would mean a very direct bidding war between ESPN/Fox for those rights. Would also still in some ways come down to if Texas wanted more ACC/SEC (ESPN) schools on it's schedule or Big 10 (Fox). Independence could be a way to play Big 10 schools, keep some local rivalries and appease a fan base that wouldn't care about games against Minnesota every year.

Then SEC if they really wanted to expand would be free to take OK/St, OK/Kansas, OK/TCU, or OK/WVU.

The ACC could grab say Cincy and ND all in. Or ND/WVU, or even Houston (a good fit with their basketball pedigree too).

The PAC would still have tough decisions to make about who is worthwhile to them, but would have options.

I'd love to see Texas as an independent. They could easily fill a schedule with big time P5 teams in the early part of the schedule, Texas teams in the middle, and Army/BYU/ND in November.

I think more independents is a good thing honestly.

I agree - I would love to see more independents.
08-17-2017 10:33 AM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #12
RE: The Great Chase for Texas
(08-17-2017 02:48 AM)JRsec Wrote:  As to the use of the LHN we have to acknowledge that it could be a moot issue. It depends a great deal upon what direction sports broadcasting moves as a result of technology.

I'd love to see us take the four you mentioned. Whatever happens I think the network's willingness to pay will be the deciding factor. I do think, have stated, and continue to believe that the most viable approach to landing Texas is to simply give them a Big 12 division. So moving to 18 and splitting into 3 divisions like this might just do the trick:

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

That's a whole division of their friends and old rivals and they don't have to go head to head with A&M but they will play them annually. The rest of the SEC essentially remains the same.

That makes it comfortable for Texas and comfortable for the rest of us. The Aggies don't have to be in their division and can compete for the conference championship series separately.

It won't involve the ACC and whatever they want to do won't be any of our affair. With Texas (the state) locked up we don't have to worry so much about Florida. Leaving them in a division of their favorite schools to play keeps them happy. We all keep 1 permanent rival and play 10 conference games. The five in our division, one permanent rival, and rotate 2 each from the other divisions.

But the question is how to land Texas? I think that is about as good of a set up as we can give them. Substitute Texas Tech for Kansas but only if we must.

The LHN may very well end up being a moot point. Part of ESPN's downsizing was actually moving their ESPNU production back to Bristol although I suspect to some degree that move had to do with making room for a coming ACC Network.

I suppose the question will be whether or not ESPN can get a decent ROI on what they've put into the LHN. If they can't then perhaps it's best to scuttle the whole thing as long as Texas has been secured.

I think to some degree, ESPN's ability and willingness to pay for Texas in the SEC or ACC could come down to whether or not they've got a solid plan to utilize the LHN. If they can find some way to monetize it within a new conference structure then that might go a long way to helping them find the funding to fuel the realignment.

When it comes to streaming, it all essentially melds into the same entity anyway although there's got to be some way to divide the revenue when it comes to a platform like the SECN in which ESPN is sharing the money. Can they find a way to do the same thing with the LHN? That is the question.
08-17-2017 11:13 AM
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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Post: #13
RE: The Great Chase for Texas
(08-17-2017 09:19 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(08-17-2017 07:07 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  One option not mentioned so far: Texas as a true independent.

If their T1 and 2 games are worth $35-40 mil, then this is a legitimate option.

Would mean a very direct bidding war between ESPN/Fox for those rights. Would also still in some ways come down to if Texas wanted more ACC/SEC (ESPN) schools on it's schedule or Big 10 (Fox). Independence could be a way to play Big 10 schools, keep some local rivalries and appease a fan base that wouldn't care about games against Minnesota every year.

Then SEC if they really wanted to expand would be free to take OK/St, OK/Kansas, OK/TCU, or OK/WVU.

The ACC could grab say Cincy and ND all in. Or ND/WVU, or even Houston (a good fit with their basketball pedigree too).

The PAC would still have tough decisions to make about who is worthwhile to them, but would have options.

I'd love to see Texas as an independent. They could easily fill a schedule with big time P5 teams in the early part of the schedule, Texas teams in the middle, and Army/BYU/ND in November.

I think more independents is a good thing honestly.

I know the Big 12 as a whole is overpaid, but I wonder if they could go in-mass to independence. No one would have trouble scheduling, as they could basically keep a conference schedule intact but function as independents. Would help teams like Texas, OK get more money, and would probably mean teams like Kansas State/Baylor get more than they would in the AAC/MWC.
08-17-2017 11:23 AM
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Post: #14
RE: The Great Chase for Texas
(08-17-2017 11:23 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(08-17-2017 09:19 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(08-17-2017 07:07 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  One option not mentioned so far: Texas as a true independent.

If their T1 and 2 games are worth $35-40 mil, then this is a legitimate option.

Would mean a very direct bidding war between ESPN/Fox for those rights. Would also still in some ways come down to if Texas wanted more ACC/SEC (ESPN) schools on it's schedule or Big 10 (Fox). Independence could be a way to play Big 10 schools, keep some local rivalries and appease a fan base that wouldn't care about games against Minnesota every year.

Then SEC if they really wanted to expand would be free to take OK/St, OK/Kansas, OK/TCU, or OK/WVU.

The ACC could grab say Cincy and ND all in. Or ND/WVU, or even Houston (a good fit with their basketball pedigree too).

The PAC would still have tough decisions to make about who is worthwhile to them, but would have options.

I'd love to see Texas as an independent. They could easily fill a schedule with big time P5 teams in the early part of the schedule, Texas teams in the middle, and Army/BYU/ND in November.

I think more independents is a good thing honestly.

I know the Big 12 as a whole is overpaid, but I wonder if they could go in-mass to independence. No one would have trouble scheduling, as they could basically keep a conference schedule intact but function as independents. Would help teams like Texas, OK get more money, and would probably mean teams like Kansas State/Baylor get more than they would in the AAC/MWC.

TV contact... gone, CFP spot... gone, NCAA auto-bid... gone, etc....
(This post was last modified: 08-21-2017 10:59 PM by Underdog.)
08-21-2017 10:53 PM
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Post: #15
RE: The Great Chase for Texas
Is there still a “Great Chase for Texas?” The program has hit rock bottom with that inept defensive performance against Maryland….
09-03-2017 08:36 AM
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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Post: #16
RE: The Great Chase for Texas
(08-21-2017 10:53 PM)Underdog Wrote:  
(08-17-2017 11:23 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(08-17-2017 09:19 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(08-17-2017 07:07 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  One option not mentioned so far: Texas as a true independent.

If their T1 and 2 games are worth $35-40 mil, then this is a legitimate option.

Would mean a very direct bidding war between ESPN/Fox for those rights. Would also still in some ways come down to if Texas wanted more ACC/SEC (ESPN) schools on it's schedule or Big 10 (Fox). Independence could be a way to play Big 10 schools, keep some local rivalries and appease a fan base that wouldn't care about games against Minnesota every year.

Then SEC if they really wanted to expand would be free to take OK/St, OK/Kansas, OK/TCU, or OK/WVU.

The ACC could grab say Cincy and ND all in. Or ND/WVU, or even Houston (a good fit with their basketball pedigree too).

The PAC would still have tough decisions to make about who is worthwhile to them, but would have options.

I'd love to see Texas as an independent. They could easily fill a schedule with big time P5 teams in the early part of the schedule, Texas teams in the middle, and Army/BYU/ND in November.

I think more independents is a good thing honestly.

I know the Big 12 as a whole is overpaid, but I wonder if they could go in-mass to independence. No one would have trouble scheduling, as they could basically keep a conference schedule intact but function as independents. Would help teams like Texas, OK get more money, and would probably mean teams like Kansas State/Baylor get more than they would in the AAC/MWC.

TV contact... gone, CFP spot... gone, NCAA auto-bid... gone, etc....

Ok, so how about the Big 12 simply stops sponsoring football. They keep the basketball league to keep the NCAA auto-bid.

As to TV contract, see ND and BYU. As to CFP spot, the only Big 12 team to make it so far has been OK, and with a decent schedule and 12-0 record, or a good schedule and an 11-1 they would at least be in the running.

I admit it is far fetched, though.
09-03-2017 08:58 AM
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Post: #17
RE: The Great Chase for Texas
(09-03-2017 08:58 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(08-21-2017 10:53 PM)Underdog Wrote:  
(08-17-2017 11:23 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(08-17-2017 09:19 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(08-17-2017 07:07 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  One option not mentioned so far: Texas as a true independent.

If their T1 and 2 games are worth $35-40 mil, then this is a legitimate option.

Would mean a very direct bidding war between ESPN/Fox for those rights. Would also still in some ways come down to if Texas wanted more ACC/SEC (ESPN) schools on it's schedule or Big 10 (Fox). Independence could be a way to play Big 10 schools, keep some local rivalries and appease a fan base that wouldn't care about games against Minnesota every year.

Then SEC if they really wanted to expand would be free to take OK/St, OK/Kansas, OK/TCU, or OK/WVU.

The ACC could grab say Cincy and ND all in. Or ND/WVU, or even Houston (a good fit with their basketball pedigree too).

The PAC would still have tough decisions to make about who is worthwhile to them, but would have options.

I'd love to see Texas as an independent. They could easily fill a schedule with big time P5 teams in the early part of the schedule, Texas teams in the middle, and Army/BYU/ND in November.

I think more independents is a good thing honestly.

I know the Big 12 as a whole is overpaid, but I wonder if they could go in-mass to independence. No one would have trouble scheduling, as they could basically keep a conference schedule intact but function as independents. Would help teams like Texas, OK get more money, and would probably mean teams like Kansas State/Baylor get more than they would in the AAC/MWC.

TV contact... gone, CFP spot... gone, NCAA auto-bid... gone, etc....

Ok, so how about the Big 12 simply stops sponsoring football. They keep the basketball league to keep the NCAA auto-bid.

As to TV contract, see ND and BYU. As to CFP spot, the only Big 12 team to make it so far has been OK, and with a decent schedule and 12-0 record, or a good schedule and an 11-1 they would at least be in the running.

I admit it is far fetched, though.

Here's the hypothetical for you. Let's assume by the end of next week that Virginia Tech manages a win over West Virginia tonight and that Ohio State beats Oklahoma by 10 or more points in Columbus. Neither of those outcomes is out of the realm of possibility. All of the sudden Texas, Oklahoma, and West Virginia have suffered significant losses. Baylor's loss to Liberty is a death blow. That leaves O.S.U. as the lone possibility for a CFP invite because I seriously doubt that Texas Tech, Kansas, Kansas State, or Iowa State are going to get a look and because T.C.U. has been passed over before. But let's say that Oklahoma or Arkansas manages to beat T.C.U. and that O.S.U. suffers only 1 loss. Neither of those are out of the realm of possibility either. With what the nation perceives as the 3 or the top 4 programs in the Big 12 losing does O.S.U. with 1 loss have the S.O.S. to make the CFP? No.

What Maryland did Saturday was to drive yet another nail in the coffin of the Big 12.

Right now your major contenders for the CFP are Stanford / Washington / Colorado from the PAC, Ohio State / Penn State / Wisconsin / Michigan from the B1G, and Alabama / L.S.U. and Georgia from the SEC, and Clemson from the ACC.

The ACC nearly suffered the same fate as the Big 12 on the opening weekend. Let's say that W.V.U. and Tennessee win tonight and tomorrow. All of the sudden the ACC has lost Florida State, N.C. State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech. That will leave Miami and Clemson. Should Auburn find a way to take down Clemson their season is virtually over with for the CFP. It will be especially true if Georgia wins in South Bend. All of the sudden their S.O.S. is gone.

Somebody will likely get two teams in for the first time and in that case all of the sudden there will be a push for a conversion to a champs only model and that will do two things: 1. Kill the Big 12 and 2. Force Notre Dame to abandon independence.

All of the possible losses I have speculated about are possible, if not likely in some cases, and only improbably with regard to Clemson playing Auburn at home.

What the opening weekend has done is to virtually level the Big 12's chances from the outset and to make vulnerable the ACC in a definitive way.
09-03-2017 12:27 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #18
RE: The Great Chase for Texas
(09-03-2017 12:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Here's the hypothetical for you. Let's assume by the end of next week that Virginia Tech manages a win over West Virginia tonight and that Ohio State beats Oklahoma by 10 or more points in Columbus. Neither of those outcomes is out of the realm of possibility. All of the sudden Texas, Oklahoma, and West Virginia have suffered significant losses. Baylor's loss to Liberty is a death blow. That leaves O.S.U. as the lone possibility for a CFP invite because I seriously doubt that Texas Tech, Kansas, Kansas State, or Iowa State are going to get a look and because T.C.U. has been passed over before. But let's say that Oklahoma or Arkansas manages to beat T.C.U. and that O.S.U. suffers only 1 loss. Neither of those are out of the realm of possibility either. With what the nation perceives as the 3 or the top 4 programs in the Big 12 losing does O.S.U. with 1 loss have the S.O.S. to make the CFP? No.

What Maryland did Saturday was to drive yet another nail in the coffin of the Big 12.

Right now your major contenders for the CFP are Stanford / Washington / Colorado from the PAC, Ohio State / Penn State / Wisconsin / Michigan from the B1G, and Alabama / L.S.U. and Georgia from the SEC, and Clemson from the ACC.

The ACC nearly suffered the same fate as the Big 12 on the opening weekend. Let's say that W.V.U. and Tennessee win tonight and tomorrow. All of the sudden the ACC has lost Florida State, N.C. State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech. That will leave Miami and Clemson. Should Auburn find a way to take down Clemson their season is virtually over with for the CFP. It will be especially true if Georgia wins in South Bend. All of the sudden their S.O.S. is gone.

Somebody will likely get two teams in for the first time and in that case all of the sudden there will be a push for a conversion to a champs only model and that will do two things: 1. Kill the Big 12 and 2. Force Notre Dame to abandon independence.

All of the possible losses I have speculated about are possible, if not likely in some cases, and only improbably with regard to Clemson playing Auburn at home.

What the opening weekend has done is to virtually level the Big 12's chances from the outset and to make vulnerable the ACC in a definitive way.


The conclusion to this is hypothetical is this:
The networks must have a champions only model to insure interest in all leagues through out the season and protect their investment in college football.

As a by product in the future you will see more conference games and less "battle of the titans" match-ups early in the season. Rules changes will be coming to allow for sub-divisions (pods) for 16 team leagues and more freedom for each of the four remaining conferences to select their own method of selecting a champion.
Maintaining interest in the regular season will become paramount.
09-03-2017 01:55 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #19
RE: The Great Chase for Texas
(09-03-2017 01:55 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(09-03-2017 12:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Here's the hypothetical for you. Let's assume by the end of next week that Virginia Tech manages a win over West Virginia tonight and that Ohio State beats Oklahoma by 10 or more points in Columbus. Neither of those outcomes is out of the realm of possibility. All of the sudden Texas, Oklahoma, and West Virginia have suffered significant losses. Baylor's loss to Liberty is a death blow. That leaves O.S.U. as the lone possibility for a CFP invite because I seriously doubt that Texas Tech, Kansas, Kansas State, or Iowa State are going to get a look and because T.C.U. has been passed over before. But let's say that Oklahoma or Arkansas manages to beat T.C.U. and that O.S.U. suffers only 1 loss. Neither of those are out of the realm of possibility either. With what the nation perceives as the 3 or the top 4 programs in the Big 12 losing does O.S.U. with 1 loss have the S.O.S. to make the CFP? No.

What Maryland did Saturday was to drive yet another nail in the coffin of the Big 12.

Right now your major contenders for the CFP are Stanford / Washington / Colorado from the PAC, Ohio State / Penn State / Wisconsin / Michigan from the B1G, and Alabama / L.S.U. and Georgia from the SEC, and Clemson from the ACC.

The ACC nearly suffered the same fate as the Big 12 on the opening weekend. Let's say that W.V.U. and Tennessee win tonight and tomorrow. All of the sudden the ACC has lost Florida State, N.C. State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech. That will leave Miami and Clemson. Should Auburn find a way to take down Clemson their season is virtually over with for the CFP. It will be especially true if Georgia wins in South Bend. All of the sudden their S.O.S. is gone.

Somebody will likely get two teams in for the first time and in that case all of the sudden there will be a push for a conversion to a champs only model and that will do two things: 1. Kill the Big 12 and 2. Force Notre Dame to abandon independence.

All of the possible losses I have speculated about are possible, if not likely in some cases, and only improbably with regard to Clemson playing Auburn at home.

What the opening weekend has done is to virtually level the Big 12's chances from the outset and to make vulnerable the ACC in a definitive way.


The conclusion to this is hypothetical is this:
The networks must have a champions only model to insure interest in all leagues through out the season and protect their investment in college football.

As a by product in the future you will see more conference games and less "battle of the titans" match-ups early in the season. Rules changes will be coming to allow for sub-divisions (pods) for 16 team leagues and more freedom for each of the four remaining conferences to select their own method of selecting a champion.
Maintaining interest in the regular season will become paramount.

You're preaching to the choir. I've been an advocate of the Champs only model since I've been on the board. I've also been a consistent proponent of 4 divisions (not rotating pods) and conference semis. I've even noted that should we move to larger than 16 conferences that the ultimate aim should be upon winning your conference because it keeps the more schools involved in the hunt for the semis and therefore keeps more interest upon the member schools.

ESPN will be the one who fights this however because those battle of the Titans drives ratings, ad dollars, and gives their blithering morons something to talk about all week long before the real season starts to provide the story lines.

But this year these titanic match ups may have hit their own self created iceberg and two conferences may be down at the bow by end of next week. What to talk about then? B1G / SEC? If so the public is tired of that story line and ratings will sag.
09-03-2017 02:31 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #20
RE: The Great Chase for Texas
The question changes from the chase for Texas to how does the Texas Market get divided? Which has been the question all along.
Three conferences have to be satisfied. I say three, because I think because of politics, the PAC schools have removed themselves from the expansion equation.

Delany did everybody in college football a favor by leaving the ESPN tent and starting the BTN. He allowed the market to seek the proper dollar level for P level football. Remember Delany said he would have never left ESPN if they had agreed to pay the Big Ten more.
How do we placate the B1G and Delany. ESPN gives them back what they took from them (Missouri), so they can pair the Tigers with Kansas.


So what about the ACC and the SEC where ESPN has vested interests?
With the SEC down to 13 teams it is necessary to add three to get to 16. Oklahoma is a no brainer, but to get them, yep!, it means Oklahoma State. But for #16? Tough call. West Virginia? Remember we are dividing the Texas market. So how do we add to the SEC's share of Texas (A&M with LSU handles the Houston area, Oklahoma would take case of DFW)and add the one other thing we are missing (a rival for Oklahoma State) you invite the second Texas school that you need, Texas Tech.
For the ACC?
For starters you allow Notre Dame to enter the league at their own pace (which may be several years down the road) but in addition to Texas add TCU.
DFW presence is not only good for the ACC but would also bode well for the Irish in that is gives a good "stage" for ACC product is Texas.

That's it, we're done. No need to celebrate, throw confetti or dance a jig. Everybody goes away with what they wanted or needed. Perfect? Perfect was never going to happen and keep everybody happy
ESPN gets what they need out of the B1G, the SEC and the ACC. Six regions (one stretched) that are pretty distinctive and pretty well balanced.

B1G west:
Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas, Iowa, Minn, Wisc, NW, Ill
B1G east:
Purdue, Indiana, Mich, Mich St, Ohio St,. Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State

SEC east:
Kentucky, Tenn, Ala, Auburn, Ga, so. carolina, Florida, Miss. State
SEC west:
Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, A&M, LSU

ACC west:
TCU, Texas, Miami, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Syracuse, BC
ACC east:
Florida St., Clemson, Ga. Tech, Carolina, State, Duke, Wake Forest, UVa
currently partial and future member: Notre Dame.
(This post was last modified: 09-04-2017 06:30 AM by XLance.)
09-03-2017 04:39 PM
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