The unofficial online home for fans of the Western Michigan University Broncos. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

So let me preface by saying that in no way do I feel we will run the table this year. But for the sake of discussion, what would it take for a mid major to sniff the college football playoff. Our SOS wasn't there last year, clearly. Did we reach the proverbial glass ceiling with the Cotton Bowl? Would wins @USC and @ MSU ( let's say they go 7-5 for discussion sake) as well as running the table the rest of the season put us in the discussion. Would we need help from the rest of the MAC in having a few other stronger than normal teams?

I don't see a MAC team ever getting a shot, no matter the OOC schedule. Too much money involved and household names are worth more.

Just thought I'd ask.

No G5 team is making it to a 4 team playoff.

Probably true. Houston had best shot last year being ranked top 15 pre season.

(08-08-2017 04:48 PM)bronconick Wrote:  No G5 team is making it to a 4 team playoff.

End of story. For even a remote, tiny shot, they'd have to have wins over 2 P5 conference champs.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

G5 team will make a 4 team playoff with sustained success, a little luck, and a dream schedule. I'm talking 3 or 4 11-1 seasons or better. The playoff season would have to have a lot of P5 schools losing 2 or 3 games, lots of upsets, with the G5 playoff team being undefeated with at least two impressive wins over 8-4 or better P5 teams. I'm not saying it will happen, but there is a chance of it happening. Never say never.

Ohio State didn't win Big Ten championship last year and got into playoffs.

What does that tell you about G5 chances?

If we went undefeated this year and the two P5 teams we beat, USC and MSU went undefeated the rest of the way, we would still not make it in. Unless we beat each of them about 44 - 7 and they both went undefeated and unchallenged the rest of the way, finishing 1 and 2 in the final polls. Then we'd surely.......
.......Well even then, we'd still not be considered for the playoffs, who am I kidding. We'd probably squeak into the top 10 though.
Maybe.

Quote:what would it take for a mid major to sniff the college football playoff

A lot. It's all about SoS + margin of victory, in an undefeated season (or Technically 1L if SoS is super high).

Quote:Our SOS wasn't there last year, clearly. Did we reach the proverbial glass ceiling with the Cotton Bowl?

Yes, with that SoS+Margin of Victory, yes. We could have been taken out from going, too -- so we needed a little luck to hit even that.

Quote:Would wins @USC and @ MSU ( let's say they go 7-5 for discussion sake) as well as running the table the rest of the season put us in the discussion.

Them each going 7-5? No, it wouldn't. It'd put us in the discussion to be the next Boise. And if winning the Peach Bowl in doing so, it'd put pressure on a 12-team Playoff -- which WOULD get a team like us in.

Quote:Would we need help from the rest of the MAC in having a few other stronger than normal teams?

Yes.

Quote:I don't see a MAC team ever getting a shot, no matter the OOC schedule.

Boise had a shot at what point to be in the Top 4. That's what it takes.

Basically, we would need to establish ourselves as a Boise for several years -- to become ranked kinda high to kick off a season, and to have a great SoS. Which means an OOC schedule like this + the MAC having a 2003-like year. That WOULD get us in. It COULD get us in this year, technically, but we'd need a lot of teams losing and kinda looking bad.

THIS WOULD GET US TO #4 IN THE COUNTRY:
*@USC (12-1): Wins the PAC12 -- loses to WMU by 17pts
*@MSU (12-1): Wins the B1G -- loses to WMU by 21pts
*Idaho (11-1): Wins the Sun Belt -- loses to @WMU by 31pts

Wagner (FCS): WMU Stomps Them Incredibly

Ball State (9-3): Beats @ILL + @WKU -- loses to @WMU by 21pts
@Buffalo (7-5): Beats @Minn + @Army -- loses to WMU by 27pts
@Akron (5-7): Beats @PSU + Iowa State + @Troy -- loses to WMU by 40pts
@EMU (6-6): Beats @Rutg + @Kentucky + @Army -- loses to WMU by 28pts
CMU (7-5): Beats @Kansas + @Syracuse + @BC -- loses to WMU by 24pts
Kent State (7-5): Beats @Clemson + @Marshall + @Louisville -- loses to WMU by 24pts
*@NIU (10-2): Beats BC + @Nebraska + @SDSU -- loses to WMU by 17pts
*@Toledo (11-1): Beats Tulsa + @Miami-FL -- loses to WMU by 20pts
*Miami-OH (12-1): Beats @Marshall + Cinci + @Notre Dame -- loses to WMU by 21pts
*=Ranked

Yeah, this would Definitely get us to #4 This Year -- as the MAC would wipe the floor OOC, too. We'd probably be ranked #2. Not going to expect anything close to that, of course. :)

But you're saying there's a chance...

Actually, with this:

*@USC (12-1): Wins the PAC12 -- loses to WMU by 17pts
*@MSU (12-1): Wins the B1G -- loses to WMU by 21pts
*Idaho (11-1): Wins the Sun Belt -- loses to @WMU by 31pts
*@NIU (10-2): Beats BC + @Nebraska + @SDSU -- loses to WMU by 17pts
*@Toledo (11-1): Beats Tulsa + @Miami-FL -- loses to WMU by 20pts
+ *Miami-OH (12-1): Beats @Marshall + Cinci + @Notre Dame -- loses to WMU by 21pts

Yeah, that would do it -- even without such a huge margin of victory (but still solid wins on each). Beating 3 Conf Champs, each with their only loss being to US + 3 other MAC teams ranked -- while beating 6 ranked teams in the season, 5 of whom have their only loss to US -- yeah, we'd surely be going.

Again, it's about SoS and who your opponents beat. It's fantasy land, though of course. :)

I wasn't limiting the discussion to wmu. Last year, before they crapped the bed, Houston was up to 6 (not sure if AP or coaches or both) with top 5 Louisville left on their schedule. Problem is, if they had ran the table I could see them being top 4 AP or coaches or both and the committee still leaving them out.

WMU could win every game by 100 points and they'd still find some excuse to leave us out.

That's the biggest thing with the committee. It isn't a poll of hundreds of votes. If it were, I could see it happening.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

Quote:Last year, before they crapped the bed, Houston was up to 6 (not sure if AP or coaches or both) with top 5 Louisville left on their schedule. Problem is, if they had ran the table I could see them being top 4 AP or coaches or both and the committee still leaving them out.

Houston could have made it without too much fiction (see my example above). But it depends how good are the teams you beat. If Louisville won the ACC and Oklahoma won the B12, and Houston went undefeated -- it'd be hard not to have them in there.

If you beat two teams who win a BCS conference, and you're in the top G5 conference and win that, undefeated -- and you're ranked in the Top 4 in the rankings out there -- yeah, you're going. They'd have pressure To put them in.

In last years situation, if WMU beats Wisconsin by say 10 points, then obviously in the playoff 3 teams lose, what is our final ranking in the polls? Fifth?

Do losses in the top 4 playoff count?, or do they just put the top 4 in order?

(08-08-2017 05:17 PM)MajorHoople Wrote:  Ohio State didn't win Big Ten championship last year and got into playoffs.

What does that tell you about G5 chances?

Tells me they are zip, zero, nada.

The only reason the Pig10 had teams in the playoff the last two years was because of brand and ratings. Clearly, NEITHER Michigan State or Ohio State deserved to be in the final four, and their results prove it.

Ohio State getting in last season, despite not even winning its division, let alone conference, is a reflection of the obviously fixed system.

A G5 team will never be in the current playoff system, regardless of how good it is on the field of play. Too many 3rd place teams out there with stronger followings and fan bases.

Sorry to be so cynical, but I despise P5 programs.

(08-08-2017 06:43 PM)ColinApocalypse Wrote:  WMU could win every game by 100 points and they'd still find some excuse to leave us out.

Bingo!

You are so right, unfortunately.

I disagree. If WMU won all its games I would bet everything we would get into the playoff. Beating USC, a top team, on the road, and then beating MSU on the road, as well as Toledo and whoever we played in the MACC, would have us in the top 4, and we would be likely the most talked about topic in sports. It would have followed the season we had last year, and we would have won like 26 of our last 27 games, with the only loss to Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl.

Trust me, I dont think we have a snowballs chance in hell of winning all our games, so i know it wont happen, but hypothetically, if we ran the table we would be in the playoff.

(08-08-2017 05:00 PM)SilentStryk09 Wrote:  

(08-08-2017 04:48 PM)bronconick Wrote:  No G5 team is making it to a 4 team playoff.

End of story. For even a remote, tiny shot, they'd have to have wins over 2 P5 conference champs.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

An undefeated AAC or MWC team might - might - someday get in the playoff if the stars align just right and if the OOC is a barn burner. Especially if that school is already a semi established name like Boise State. MAC, CUSA and SB, no way.

USF is this year's pre-season G5 darling. But their OOC is Illinois, San Jose State, Stony Brook, and UMass.

(08-09-2017 09:29 AM)brovol Wrote:  I disagree. If WMU won all its games I would bet everything we would get into the playoff. Beating USC, a top team, on the road, and then beating MSU on the road, as well as Toledo and whoever we played in the MACC, would have us in the top 4, and we would be likely the most talked about topic in sports. It would have followed the season we had last year, and we would have won like 26 of our last 27 games, with the only loss to Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl.

Trust me, I dont think we have a snowballs chance in hell of winning all our games, so i know it wont happen, but hypothetically, if we ran the table we would be in the playoff.

If USC, MSU and Toledo all finished in the Top-20 and Miami was ranked Top 25 when we beat them in the championship game, then yes I might agree with this scenario. Undefeated with essentially four Top-20 road wins and going 28-1 since 2015 would provide a very good resume.