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Nothing. All of them will maintain the status quo.
They are working behind the scenes to find new homes.
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The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
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JRsec Offline
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The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
Forget all of the speculation. Forget which conferences claim to want Oklahoma and Texas. Forget the big brother little brother talk. Just look at what we know to be true:

1. The Big 12 decided not to expand.
2. The Big 12 decided not to extend the GOR.
3. The Big 12 is a conference where 75% of it's population resides in one state.
4. The Big 12 is admittedly over payed by the networks but those contracts end in 2024-5.
5. West Virginia is an outlier.
6. T.C.U. and WVU were only invited to keep the TV contract enforced.
7. The Texas schools do not have a long history with the Big 8 schools with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State excepted.
8. The top programs of the Big 12 are the only schools that would add value to the other P conferences.
9. Texas and Oklahoma are those programs. Kansas might be a third. The rest might have some value to a conference, but not all conferences.
10. The clock is ticking on the current contract.

There are two schools of thought on their present situation:
1. Nothing is happening and Texas wants to stay and wants the rest of the programs subservient to them.
2. The reason nothing appears to be happening is because they are working out the details of dissolution and movement in private.

Personally I have a hard time believing that without a future contract in hand, with no extension of the GOR in place, and given their history of disunity, and the sprawl of their small conference that they are simply doing nothing. I expect an eventual ESPN crawler to tell us where they are all going sometime before 2024.

What are your thoughts?
08-07-2017 12:27 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #2
RE: The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
I do believe they are working behind the scenes to find homes.

Not sure I see a brokering happening before the contract is up though. So many of those pieces hold such little value that I don't see how things could be divided up between the other leagues with any real equity. That creates a huge disincentive to strike a deal in the short term.

Best I think most of those schools could hope for would be a guarantee from the networks to maintain a preferred status once the Big 12 breaks apart for good.
08-07-2017 01:42 PM
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murrdcu Offline
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RE: The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
It really depends on the value of that next conference contract. All Big 12 schools that have options will know how much they'll make elsewhere and what their schedule will look like. The question is will Fox and ESPN overpay again? I don't think so. ESPN didn't want to match Fox's bid for B1G content; probably won't do the same to the current Big 12 teams. Might be cheaper to add 2-4 Big 12 schools to the SEC and let Texas go independent.

Al we know is things will get interesting in a few years.
08-07-2017 03:13 PM
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hawghiggs Offline
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RE: The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
I don't think that the Big 12 is looking to break up. Texas nor Oklahoma wants any real competition, and the rest of the league is really just happy to have a home in the P5.
08-07-2017 03:27 PM
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murrdcu Offline
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RE: The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
(08-07-2017 03:27 PM)hawghiggs Wrote:  I don't think that the Big 12 is looking to break up. Texas nor Oklahoma wants any real competition, and the rest of the league is really just happy to have a home in the P5.

True, but conference and financial collapse is just one or two teams pulling out. Kansas would be a school that should probably take a B1G offer if they have one and hear some rumors about the B12 splitting up. The risk of losing $40M/yr in a power conference vs making a mil or two a year in the American Athletic Conference is not a mistake an AD or President wants on their tenure.
08-07-2017 03:45 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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RE: The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
Economically, the Big 12 cannot survive another contract negotiation. That's why they will ultimately break up. The money simply won't be there next time whether UT and OU want to keep the status quo or not.
08-07-2017 04:06 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
(08-07-2017 03:13 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  It really depends on the value of that next conference contract. All Big 12 schools that have options will know how much they'll make elsewhere and what their schedule will look like. The question is will Fox and ESPN overpay again? I don't think so. ESPN didn't want to match Fox's bid for B1G content; probably won't do the same to the current Big 12 teams. Might be cheaper to add 2-4 Big 12 schools to the SEC and let Texas go independent.

Al we know is things will get interesting in a few years.

I agree. And to make it simple if ESPN added 5 to the SEC and ACC it would be break even for them minus the LHN if they can get out of that. If they add only 3 and let Texas pursue independence it would still be less money. Let FOX buy the other 5 or 6 and move them somewhere they have to pay more.

So if Texas joined the ACC for football only then together with N.D. they equal a whole school since N.D. joined for everything but football. Then add WVU to give the ACC more gravitas in all sports (like Louisville) and add Oklahoma and another to the SEC and they get out for full cost in 3 and they can either fold the LHN or keep it.

I think something like that would be the most effective outside of the SEC taking Texa-homa.
08-07-2017 04:39 PM
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Lenvillecards Offline
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The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
Looking at the financial situation, the PAC is in worse shape. The PAC has more desirable brands for the B1G & geographically fit into the B12. A couple B12 teams could slip to the SEC & ACC to make more room in the B12 for PAC schools. BYU & possibly Boise can more easily be assembled into the B12 than the PAC. I can see the B12 outlasting the PAC & this could be why all is quite on the B12 front.


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(This post was last modified: 08-07-2017 05:09 PM by Lenvillecards.)
08-07-2017 05:04 PM
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murrdcu Offline
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RE: The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
(08-07-2017 04:39 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-07-2017 03:13 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  It really depends on the value of that next conference contract. All Big 12 schools that have options will know how much they'll make elsewhere and what their schedule will look like. The question is will Fox and ESPN overpay again? I don't think so. ESPN didn't want to match Fox's bid for B1G content; probably won't do the same to the current Big 12 teams. Might be cheaper to add 2-4 Big 12 schools to the SEC and let Texas go independent.

Al we know is things will get interesting in a few years.

I agree. And to make it simple if ESPN added 5 to the SEC and ACC it would be break even for them minus the LHN if they can get out of that. If they add only 3 and let Texas pursue independence it would still be less money. Let FOX buy the other 5 or 6 and move them somewhere they have to pay more.

So if Texas joined the ACC for football only then together with N.D. they equal a whole school since N.D. joined for everything but football. Then add WVU to give the ACC more gravitas in all sports (like Louisville) and add Oklahoma and another to the SEC and they get out for full cost in 3 and they can either fold the LHN or keep it.

I think something like that would be the most effective outside of the SEC taking Texa-homa.

So your scenario has the ACC adding Texas as a football only member and then grabbing WVU as a full member. Even if ESPN paid the conference for the 'eers,I'm not sure the votes would be there. Assuming they are, the ACC probably needs a 16th full time member.

I could see the SEC grabbing OU and OSU to secure OU, then maybe KU and WVU if the presidents are in favor for it. Then, ten years later, adding FSU and Virginia Tech. :D

Anyway, if Texas did abandon the remenants of the Big 12 for a partial ACC membership, I imagine the rest of the Big 12 finds homes in the American or the MWC.

The only way I see Texas and friends joining the PAC would be if their collection of networks made competitive money. That might be enough to save Texas plus three other Big 12 schools from losing P5 status and money.

The only other possibility I see is Texas does a Notr Dame type deal with the American--same conference that had Norte Dame as a partial. There are already several former SWC schools there. Add in the remaining B12 schools and that would probably be the most economical move for all parties involved. Assuming the LHN doesn't throw a wrench in there.
08-07-2017 05:37 PM
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DawgNBama Offline
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RE: The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
Win, lose, or draw, there's no denying that the Big 12 has been unstable.if presidents & chancellors aren't making moves behind the scenes, I'm pretty sure they will wind up losing their jobs should something happen to the Big 12.
08-07-2017 08:34 PM
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