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The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
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tcufrog86 Offline
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Post: #31
RE: The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
(08-09-2017 08:27 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(08-09-2017 05:15 AM)XLance Wrote:  Teams that could easily be justified at $20 million are a harder pill to swallow at $50 million, especially if you need to take a little brother. The risk in a no population area may be too great for the reward.
Texas is less valuable to the SEC than it is to the B1G/ACC/PAC, and Oklahoma really has limited appeal because they don't have huge alumni numbers and lack a national fan base.
ESPN may leave some money on the table, but their advances moving forward will be more cautious.

Whether or not this is true doesn't change their national appeal. Everyone knows Oklahoma. I'm sure they would be warmly welcomed in any conference (perhaps with a condition or two.)

Yeah I'd be interested in what defines a "national fan base" and how you determine whether or not a team has one.

Notre Dame I think we can safely say has a national fan base...but who else and what defines that?
08-09-2017 09:54 AM
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Underdog Online
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Post: #32
RE: The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
(08-07-2017 12:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Forget all of the speculation. Forget which conferences claim to want Oklahoma and Texas. Forget the big brother little brother talk. Just look at what we know to be true:

1. The Big 12 decided not to expand.
2. The Big 12 decided not to extend the GOR.
3. The Big 12 is a conference where 75% of it's population resides in one state.
4. The Big 12 is admittedly over payed by the networks but those contracts end in 2024-5.
5. West Virginia is an outlier.
6. T.C.U. and WVU were only invited to keep the TV contract enforced.
7. The Texas schools do not have a long history with the Big 8 schools with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State excepted.
8. The top programs of the Big 12 are the only schools that would add value to the other P conferences.
9. Texas and Oklahoma are those programs. Kansas might be a third. The rest might have some value to a conference, but not all conferences.
10. The clock is ticking on the current contract.

There are two schools of thought on their present situation:
1. Nothing is happening and Texas wants to stay and wants the rest of the programs subservient to them.
2. The reason nothing appears to be happening is because they are working out the details of dissolution and movement in private.

Personally I have a hard time believing that without a future contract in hand, with no extension of the GOR in place, and given their history of disunity, and the sprawl of their small conference that they are simply doing nothing. I expect an eventual ESPN crawler to tell us where they are all going sometime before 2024.

What are your thoughts?

Your first point made me consider that what you’ve posted has a lot of validity to it…. I originally thought that the B12’s expansion fiasco was just a tactic used to identify primary targets for rebuilding the B12 in the future. However, maybe the networks stepped in and presented a future plan that’s beneficial to most/if not all of the schools in the B12. The bribe money it took from the networks for not expanding was absolutely asinine unless a hidden agenda was proposed and agreed upon….
(This post was last modified: 08-09-2017 03:12 PM by Underdog.)
08-09-2017 02:56 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #33
RE: The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
(08-09-2017 02:56 PM)Underdog Wrote:  
(08-07-2017 12:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Forget all of the speculation. Forget which conferences claim to want Oklahoma and Texas. Forget the big brother little brother talk. Just look at what we know to be true:

1. The Big 12 decided not to expand.
2. The Big 12 decided not to extend the GOR.
3. The Big 12 is a conference where 75% of it's population resides in one state.
4. The Big 12 is admittedly over payed by the networks but those contracts end in 2024-5.
5. West Virginia is an outlier.
6. T.C.U. and WVU were only invited to keep the TV contract enforced.
7. The Texas schools do not have a long history with the Big 8 schools with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State excepted.
8. The top programs of the Big 12 are the only schools that would add value to the other P conferences.
9. Texas and Oklahoma are those programs. Kansas might be a third. The rest might have some value to a conference, but not all conferences.
10. The clock is ticking on the current contract.

There are two schools of thought on their present situation:
1. Nothing is happening and Texas wants to stay and wants the rest of the programs subservient to them.
2. The reason nothing appears to be happening is because they are working out the details of dissolution and movement in private.

Personally I have a hard time believing that without a future contract in hand, with no extension of the GOR in place, and given their history of disunity, and the sprawl of their small conference that they are simply doing nothing. I expect an eventual ESPN crawler to tell us where they are all going sometime before 2024.

What are your thoughts?

Your first point made me consider that what you’ve posted has a lot of validity to it…. I originally thought that the B12’s expansion fiasco was just a tactic used to identify primary targets for rebuilding the B12 in the future. However, maybe the networks stepped in and presented a future plan that’s beneficial to most/if not all of the schools in the B12. The bribe money it took from the networks not to expand was absolutely asinine unless a hidden agenda was proposed and agreed upon….

Iger said today that Disney will be investing in more original programming across all of their media networks. This included sports. So I expect ESPN to make some bold moves to lock up the product they want from the Big 12, and possibly the PAC. My take is that they will be buying raw materials (rights), producing product (manufacturing), brokering product (wholesaling) and monetizing select product through streaming and cable networks (retailing). It seems to me that their response to streaming is going to be in controlling their own product from rights through production and distribution. Netflix is the first victim.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Amazon, and FOX simply lease the product they want. Amazon is not set up to really produce product, and FOX might find a better lineup by buying what they need wholesale (meaning games which they can then supply their own announcers, analysts, and camera crews to work. It would permit FS1 and FS2 to cherry pick games that would actually draw for them. Currently ESPN has the locked out of the Atlantic Coast and Southeast. If the SEC and ACC expand even to 16 that's 24 more games to sell every week which would be an ample supply to furnish CBS, ESPN and FOX all the product they might want to broadcast.

So there is that sweetheart deal that might be hard for the current Big 12 to turn down.
08-09-2017 03:17 PM
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Lenvillecards Offline
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Post: #34
The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
(08-08-2017 12:36 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-07-2017 05:04 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  Looking at the financial situation, the PAC is in worse shape. The PAC has more desirable brands for the B1G & geographically fit into the B12. A couple B12 teams could slip to the SEC & ACC to make more room in the B12 for PAC schools. BYU & possibly Boise can more easily be assembled into the B12 than the PAC. I can see the B12 outlasting the PAC & this could be why all is quite on the B12 front.


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You have to factor in that the Big 12 is currently getting overpaid. The networks threw them a lifeline to get control of the situation when schools started bailing.

The PAC does take make less money currently, but their demographics are much, much better. They also have a network that they can use as a bargaining chip with the networks.

By contrast, the vast majority of value in the Big 12 is concentrated in 2-4 schools. The networks will have little motivation to pay everyone a competitive rate if the league insists on the status quo. The networks stand to make a lot more money by moving a piece or two to other leagues. Come 2025, if UT and OU want competitive P5 money they are going to have to move. That, of course, creates instability for everyone else.


It would certainly make more sense to move 4-6 B12 schools to the PAC but what if Texas &/or Oklahoma don't want to go? I think they would be foolish to turn down a 6 team eastern division of the PAC but they aren't known for making wise decisions. Oklahoma, Texas, TT, Oklahoma State, Kansas & Iowa State would be a solid division. The SEC could add TCU & the ACC could grab WV for 15 apiece, 3x5. UCONN would still be there for the B1G if they so desired. Texas & Oklahoma can throw a monkey wrench into this though & give the B1G a chance to pickup some PAC brands.

(Playing devils advocate.)


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(This post was last modified: 08-10-2017 08:43 AM by Lenvillecards.)
08-10-2017 08:35 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #35
RE: The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
(08-10-2017 08:35 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  
(08-08-2017 12:36 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-07-2017 05:04 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  Looking at the financial situation, the PAC is in worse shape. The PAC has more desirable brands for the B1G & geographically fit into the B12. A couple B12 teams could slip to the SEC & ACC to make more room in the B12 for PAC schools. BYU & possibly Boise can more easily be assembled into the B12 than the PAC. I can see the B12 outlasting the PAC & this could be why all is quite on the B12 front.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You have to factor in that the Big 12 is currently getting overpaid. The networks threw them a lifeline to get control of the situation when schools started bailing.

The PAC does take make less money currently, but their demographics are much, much better. They also have a network that they can use as a bargaining chip with the networks.

By contrast, the vast majority of value in the Big 12 is concentrated in 2-4 schools. The networks will have little motivation to pay everyone a competitive rate if the league insists on the status quo. The networks stand to make a lot more money by moving a piece or two to other leagues. Come 2025, if UT and OU want competitive P5 money they are going to have to move. That, of course, creates instability for everyone else.


It would certainly make more sense to move 4-6 B12 schools to the PAC but what if Texas &/or Oklahoma don't want to go? I think they would be foolish to turn down a 6 team eastern division of the PAC but they aren't known for making wise decisions. Oklahoma, Texas, TT, Oklahoma State, Kansas & Iowa State would be a solid division. The SEC could add TCU & the ACC could grab WV for 15 apiece, 3x5. UCONN would still be there for the B1G if they so desired. Texas & Oklahoma can throw a monkey wrench into this though & give the B1G a chance to pickup some PAC brands.

(Playing devils advocate.)


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Lenville it would still be more practical just to split 8 between the SEC and ACC. That's enough to kill the conference and end the GOR.
Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State / SEC
Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech, West Virginia / ACC

Add Florida State, Miami, and Georgia Tech to Texas, T.C.U. & Texas Tech and you have a very nice Gulf Division.

Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, and N.C. State form the Coastal

Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College, Louisville, West Virginia and Virginia Tech form the Atlantic

Notre Dame remains a partial.

The SEC would have:
Arkansas, Iowa State, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt.

ESPN gets their rights and it's all over.
08-10-2017 06:46 PM
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DukeFan Offline
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Post: #36
RE: The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
Texas could be more willing to join the ACC as a full member if three other Texas schools joined them for scheduling and travel reasons ..

Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor > ACC

Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, and West Virginia > SEC

ACC
Boston College, Louisville, NC State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech ATLANTIC

Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest COASTAL

Baylor, Florida State, Miami, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech GULF

SEC
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia EAST

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Ole Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt CENTRAL

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M WEST
08-10-2017 11:20 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #37
RE: The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
(08-10-2017 11:20 PM)DukeFan Wrote:  Texas could be more willing to join the ACC as a full member if three other Texas schools joined them for scheduling and travel reasons ..

Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor > ACC

Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, and West Virginia > SEC

ACC
Boston College, Louisville, NC State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech ATLANTIC

Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest COASTAL

Baylor, Florida State, Miami, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech GULF

SEC
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia EAST

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Ole Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt CENTRAL

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M WEST

That works nicely as well. West Virginia brings better overall sports / Iowa State brings 2 million more viewers and AAU. I call that a tough decision.

What do you think about taking Baylor?
08-10-2017 11:43 PM
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DukeFan Offline
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Post: #38
RE: The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
(08-10-2017 11:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-10-2017 11:20 PM)DukeFan Wrote:  Texas could be more willing to join the ACC as a full member if three other Texas schools joined them for scheduling and travel reasons ..

Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor > ACC

Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, and West Virginia > SEC

ACC
Boston College, Louisville, NC State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech ATLANTIC

Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest COASTAL

Baylor, Florida State, Miami, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech GULF

SEC
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia EAST

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Ole Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt CENTRAL

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M WEST

That works nicely as well. West Virginia brings better overall sports / Iowa State brings 2 million more viewers and AAU. I call that a tough decision.

What do you think about taking Baylor?

If Texas wants to bring Baylor along, then you add Baylor without hesitation. Would prefer West Virginia and their solid athletic programs to that school that's been marred by sexual assault scandals..
08-11-2017 01:15 AM
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Lenvillecards Offline
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Post: #39
The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
(08-10-2017 06:46 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-10-2017 08:35 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  
(08-08-2017 12:36 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-07-2017 05:04 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  Looking at the financial situation, the PAC is in worse shape. The PAC has more desirable brands for the B1G & geographically fit into the B12. A couple B12 teams could slip to the SEC & ACC to make more room in the B12 for PAC schools. BYU & possibly Boise can more easily be assembled into the B12 than the PAC. I can see the B12 outlasting the PAC & this could be why all is quite on the B12 front.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You have to factor in that the Big 12 is currently getting overpaid. The networks threw them a lifeline to get control of the situation when schools started bailing.

The PAC does take make less money currently, but their demographics are much, much better. They also have a network that they can use as a bargaining chip with the networks.

By contrast, the vast majority of value in the Big 12 is concentrated in 2-4 schools. The networks will have little motivation to pay everyone a competitive rate if the league insists on the status quo. The networks stand to make a lot more money by moving a piece or two to other leagues. Come 2025, if UT and OU want competitive P5 money they are going to have to move. That, of course, creates instability for everyone else.


It would certainly make more sense to move 4-6 B12 schools to the PAC but what if Texas &/or Oklahoma don't want to go? I think they would be foolish to turn down a 6 team eastern division of the PAC but they aren't known for making wise decisions. Oklahoma, Texas, TT, Oklahoma State, Kansas & Iowa State would be a solid division. The SEC could add TCU & the ACC could grab WV for 15 apiece, 3x5. UCONN would still be there for the B1G if they so desired. Texas & Oklahoma can throw a monkey wrench into this though & give the B1G a chance to pickup some PAC brands.

(Playing devils advocate.)


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Lenville it would still be more practical just to split 8 between the SEC and ACC. That's enough to kill the conference and end the GOR.
Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State / SEC
Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech, West Virginia / ACC

Add Florida State, Miami, and Georgia Tech to Texas, T.C.U. & Texas Tech and you have a very nice Gulf Division.

Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, and N.C. State form the Coastal

Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College, Louisville, West Virginia and Virginia Tech form the Atlantic

Notre Dame remains a partial.

The SEC would have:
Arkansas, Iowa State, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt.

ESPN gets their rights and it's all over.


By ESPN merging the B12 & PAC they would be coast to coast & not restricted to just the southeast & east coast. They would take over the PACN & expand it into the Midwest.

Divvying the B12 up between the SEC & ACC creates some issues. ND for example, with ND remaining as a partial you can't have a champs only CFP. Do the SEC & ACC want to go to 18 or more? The more you have the more you have to split the CFP $ with. The more members you have the harder it is to maintain old rivalries.

By controlling 3 power conferences you control autonomy, ESPN would get whatever they want.

The SEC could still get into DFW by adding TCU & stopping at 15. Go to conference SF's in a 3x5, autonomy majority would make this easy. SF's creates additional revenue that isn't shared.

ACC adds ND for 15 & adds SF's as well. Perhaps WV for 16.

Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, TT, Kansas & Iowa State to the PAC combined with TCU to the SEC & WV to the ACC is 8 & enough to dissolve the B12. Kansas State, Baylor, BYU & Boise to the AAC would give ESPN a strong tweener conference for marketing. They would also make a great streaming test subject.


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(This post was last modified: 08-11-2017 09:05 AM by Lenvillecards.)
08-11-2017 09:02 AM
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XLance Online
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Post: #40
RE: The Big 12: The Nuts and Bolts of Their Present Situation
(08-09-2017 09:54 AM)tcufrog86 Wrote:  
(08-09-2017 08:27 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(08-09-2017 05:15 AM)XLance Wrote:  Teams that could easily be justified at $20 million are a harder pill to swallow at $50 million, especially if you need to take a little brother. The risk in a no population area may be too great for the reward.
Texas is less valuable to the SEC than it is to the B1G/ACC/PAC, and Oklahoma really has limited appeal because they don't have huge alumni numbers and lack a national fan base.
ESPN may leave some money on the table, but their advances moving forward will be more cautious.

Whether or not this is true doesn't change their national appeal. Everyone knows Oklahoma. I'm sure they would be warmly welcomed in any conference (perhaps with a condition or two.)

Yeah I'd be interested in what defines a "national fan base" and how you determine whether or not a team has one.

Notre Dame I think we can safely say has a national fan base...but who else and what defines that?

This is what a national fan base looks like:

Carolina fans vs. the rest of the field (NCAA Tournament).

[Image: 18i2d3n3kss5kpng.png]
(This post was last modified: 08-11-2017 10:28 AM by XLance.)
08-11-2017 10:27 AM
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