This thread lol

(08-07-2017 05:11 PM)M1T4 Wrote:  This thread lol

Excellent analysis.

(08-07-2017 01:15 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(08-07-2017 12:39 PM)450bench Wrote:  

(08-07-2017 12:23 PM)snowtiger Wrote:  The insurance analogy was mainly for the JUCO recruits we are bringing in.
The stats of how JUCOs perform in a D1 venue gives us a strong idea of what we can expect.

When Vegas analyzes our team this year, you can bet they take those numbers into consideration.

I'm sorry but they are an unknown regardless of whether they are high schoolers or juco players. At the end of the day, they have no D1 history.

Vegas will soft pedal anything Memphis until there is some evidence of how the team plays. Ask your bookie, lol.

The only known entity with any form of history is Tubby and his value in the insurance analogy, would be based on his history, which is strong.

In football, if a team has highly skilled skill position guys but not much of an offensive line, where do coaches turn to get recruits who can come in and contribute immediately? They go the juco route.
Sure basketball is different, but it may be advantageous to fill gaps with those guys. Clearly we'll find out in a few months.

And that is where you are just stubbornly wrong.

Derrick Rose was a D1 "unknown" but it was certainly expected for him to be one of the best players in the nation before he ever set foot on campus. Based on high school and AAU play and rankings.

Guys ranked in the 50's in recruiting rankings, over several year's samples, produce a consistent amount to give one an idea of what to expect.

Same of kids in the 120's.

Same for JUCO's.

Of course it is only logical speculation, but fact based nonetheless.

You can keep putting your hands over your ears and say "lalalalalalalalalalala" and fall back on "just wait tip they play" to avoid reasonable discussions about expectations, but some of us recognize that part of message-boarding is speculation.

It's just whether you want to be evidenced based or hope based.

And in the insurance analogy that you, actually, brought up, Derrick Rose would be given as much weight in an actuarial equation as Joe Blow. How about Paris London? How about Deuce Ford? How'd they work out? There are no sure things, although some times guys truly do pan out. And Rodney Carney? He was on NO radar and turned into a stud.
All would be treated the same in an underwriting situation.

My points are reasonable, although apparently not to you of which I would expect nothing less. I have merely taken your insurance analogy and applied it accurately in actuarial terms, Tubby included.

Yes, I do prefer the wait and see approach and it makes more logical sense to me. But hey, that's just me.

You are obviously free to bash or blast or shout from the hill tops how shiiiiity the coaching staff is and how bad the new players are or whatever. Makes no difference to me.

When the season starts we'll get a better glimpse of reality. But, man, if the team turns out to be good, some of the more opinionated people on this board are gonna have some serious back-tracking to do.

(08-07-2017 05:59 PM)450bench Wrote:  

(08-07-2017 01:15 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(08-07-2017 12:39 PM)450bench Wrote:  

(08-07-2017 12:23 PM)snowtiger Wrote:  The insurance analogy was mainly for the JUCO recruits we are bringing in.
The stats of how JUCOs perform in a D1 venue gives us a strong idea of what we can expect.

When Vegas analyzes our team this year, you can bet they take those numbers into consideration.

I'm sorry but they are an unknown regardless of whether they are high schoolers or juco players. At the end of the day, they have no D1 history.

Vegas will soft pedal anything Memphis until there is some evidence of how the team plays. Ask your bookie, lol.

The only known entity with any form of history is Tubby and his value in the insurance analogy, would be based on his history, which is strong.

In football, if a team has highly skilled skill position guys but not much of an offensive line, where do coaches turn to get recruits who can come in and contribute immediately? They go the juco route.
Sure basketball is different, but it may be advantageous to fill gaps with those guys. Clearly we'll find out in a few months.

And that is where you are just stubbornly wrong.

Derrick Rose was a D1 "unknown" but it was certainly expected for him to be one of the best players in the nation before he ever set foot on campus. Based on high school and AAU play and rankings.

Guys ranked in the 50's in recruiting rankings, over several year's samples, produce a consistent amount to give one an idea of what to expect.

Same of kids in the 120's.

Same for JUCO's.

Of course it is only logical speculation, but fact based nonetheless.

You can keep putting your hands over your ears and say "lalalalalalalalalalala" and fall back on "just wait tip they play" to avoid reasonable discussions about expectations, but some of us recognize that part of message-boarding is speculation.

It's just whether you want to be evidenced based or hope based.

And in the insurance analogy that you, actually, brought up, Derrick Rose would be given as much weight in an actuarial equation as Joe Blow. How about Paris London? How about Deuce Ford? How'd they work out? There are no sure things, although some times guys truly do pan out. And Rodney Carney? He was on NO radar and turned into a stud.
All would be treated the same in an underwriting situation.

My points are reasonable, although apparently not to you of which I would expect nothing less. I have merely taken your insurance analogy and applied it accurately in actuarial terms, Tubby included.

Yes, I do prefer the wait and see approach and it makes more logical sense to me. But hey, that's just me.

You are obviously free to bash or blast or shout from the hill tops how shiiiiity the coaching staff is and how bad the new players are or whatever. Makes no difference to me.

When the season starts we'll get a better glimpse of reality. But, man, if the team turns out to be good, some of the more opinionated people on this board are gonna have some serious back-tracking to do.

You get so discombobulated with your arguments--you are trying to put up anecdotal guys to prove the more basic premise that, given a particular ranking, one know what to expect.

Just like insurance. 40 year old married women have lower rates than 25 year old single men. Does that mean NO ONE women will ever have an accident or ticket? Or that if you compare one 40 year old woman to one 25 year old guy and the guy has a clean record and the woman has an accident that the table should be blown up because it was just "proved" that 25 year olds are better than the 40 year old?

Of course not.

And I won't "backtrack" anything.

If these guys come out and win the conference or make it to the S16 or Tubby ends up pulling off an incredible 2018 class I will recognize it and be much more considerate in my analysis of him as a coach.

(08-07-2017 06:47 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(08-07-2017 05:59 PM)450bench Wrote:  

(08-07-2017 01:15 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(08-07-2017 12:39 PM)450bench Wrote:  

(08-07-2017 12:23 PM)snowtiger Wrote:  The insurance analogy was mainly for the JUCO recruits we are bringing in.
The stats of how JUCOs perform in a D1 venue gives us a strong idea of what we can expect.

When Vegas analyzes our team this year, you can bet they take those numbers into consideration.

I'm sorry but they are an unknown regardless of whether they are high schoolers or juco players. At the end of the day, they have no D1 history.

Vegas will soft pedal anything Memphis until there is some evidence of how the team plays. Ask your bookie, lol.

The only known entity with any form of history is Tubby and his value in the insurance analogy, would be based on his history, which is strong.

In football, if a team has highly skilled skill position guys but not much of an offensive line, where do coaches turn to get recruits who can come in and contribute immediately? They go the juco route.
Sure basketball is different, but it may be advantageous to fill gaps with those guys. Clearly we'll find out in a few months.

And that is where you are just stubbornly wrong.

Derrick Rose was a D1 "unknown" but it was certainly expected for him to be one of the best players in the nation before he ever set foot on campus. Based on high school and AAU play and rankings.

Guys ranked in the 50's in recruiting rankings, over several year's samples, produce a consistent amount to give one an idea of what to expect.

Same of kids in the 120's.

Same for JUCO's.

Of course it is only logical speculation, but fact based nonetheless.

You can keep putting your hands over your ears and say "lalalalalalalalalalala" and fall back on "just wait tip they play" to avoid reasonable discussions about expectations, but some of us recognize that part of message-boarding is speculation.

It's just whether you want to be evidenced based or hope based.

And in the insurance analogy that you, actually, brought up, Derrick Rose would be given as much weight in an actuarial equation as Joe Blow. How about Paris London? How about Deuce Ford? How'd they work out? There are no sure things, although some times guys truly do pan out. And Rodney Carney? He was on NO radar and turned into a stud.
All would be treated the same in an underwriting situation.

My points are reasonable, although apparently not to you of which I would expect nothing less. I have merely taken your insurance analogy and applied it accurately in actuarial terms, Tubby included.

Yes, I do prefer the wait and see approach and it makes more logical sense to me. But hey, that's just me.

You are obviously free to bash or blast or shout from the hill tops how shiiiiity the coaching staff is and how bad the new players are or whatever. Makes no difference to me.

When the season starts we'll get a better glimpse of reality. But, man, if the team turns out to be good, some of the more opinionated people on this board are gonna have some serious back-tracking to do.

You get so discombobulated with your arguments--you are trying to put up anecdotal guys to prove the more basic premise that, given a particular ranking, one know what to expect.

Just like insurance. 40 year old married women have lower rates than 25 year old single men. Does that mean NO ONE women will ever have an accident or ticket? Or that if you compare one 40 year old woman to one 25 year old guy and the guy has a clean record and the woman has an accident that the table should be blown up because it was just "proved" that 25 year olds are better than the 40 year old?

Of course not.

And I won't "backtrack" anything.

If these guys come out and win the conference or make it to the S16 or Tubby ends up pulling off an incredible 2018 class I will recognize it and be much more considerate in my analysis of him as a coach.

Lol, I never compared those categories because they don't compare in this analogy. Why are 16 year olds higher rated than any other age bracket? Because they have no credibility or track record. They are all assumed to be high risk drivers. Once they get some experience behind them, their rating can change. That's just how it works and it's also common sense.
That's my basis of comparison to new D1 kids coming into a program. We don't know what kind of players they'll be until they get some games under their belt. It's also why a seasoned and successful coach would be so favorable in the analogy when compared to a young unseasoned guy.

Argue all you want, makes no difference to me. I wouldn't expect a guy like you to back track on anything, actually. And that's fine too.

I personally am optimistic and, to me, the unknowns surrounding the team are kind of exciting. Could be good or could suck. If the team is good, we'll all be happy. If they suck we'll all be head hunting and it will be deserved.
It's freaking August so there's time before the stressful stuff begins.

(08-07-2017 05:15 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(08-07-2017 05:11 PM)M1T4 Wrote:  This thread lol

Excellent analysis.

It's what this thread deserves lol

Does the Tubby whining ever stop. It's almost football and the same group still whining about Tubby.

450 killed in this thread.

I'm just glad to have been able to witness it.

(08-07-2017 07:46 AM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-07-2017 03:19 AM)EricSigEpTNBeta183 Wrote:  I know it's not about CJP but if you are going to use Tubbys COY award why can't I bring up CJP award to show that it means little. Or at least to me. Figured it would mean a lot to you since you brought it up. I also agree that he should have done more with the players he had but lets be honest, how many coaches his age (when he was here) with their first head coaching job ever, even has done what he did (all the years of making the tournament)? Not many. Also by your logic, he shouldn't have won many games last year (since he has not much talent), he took a team that was projected to win single digits and beat some of the best teams in the country, did he not? Don't misread what I am saying, although CJP is an amazing human being, it was time to move on. My view is that we just moved onto the wrong coach.

To counter your point, it would be like buying a stock that flourished in 1990's and early 2000's but hasn't done well since. if you'd like to buy that stock I'd love to know why you are optimistic of something that hasn't been good in over 10 years? Esp when there is NOTHING in recent history to get excited about. I HIGHLY doubt that you would actually buy that stock.

Btw this is EXACTLY what messages boards are for. If everyone is patting each other on the back and saying how things are rainbows and butterflies, it's just lying and setting yourself up for disappointment. I hope more than anything that the ones who feel like this was the wrong hire are wrong themselves (and I bet they would tell you that too) it means that our school/program is doing well. There is just no evidence to point in that direction, none.

Not sure why we continue to have comparisons with Pastner. Like you, I thought Pastner was a great person, recruiter, but not a great coach. He could sign them, but couldn't do much with them or keep them on the team. The transfer rate at Memphis has been ridiculous.

Tubby's conference records were from low end teams at some of the best conferences. We were great in C-USA, but have struggled since. And we certainly aren't playing near the quality of teams that are in the Big 12 or Big 10. Making the tourney at TT or Minnesota isn't easy. People say Bobby Knight did it, which is true, but he is a HOF'er. Little Pitino made the tourney this year at Minn. He's certainly got pedigree and may become an excellent coach in time.

But if you look back, Minnesota has one NCAA tourney win in the last 20 years, and that was Tubby. He took 3 years to get an awful TT team to the tourney. I think it's fair to expect the same here. We all thought he overachieved last year until the end. Did the Lawson's quit? Was it fatigue? My guess is probably both, but when your best two players quit, it just didn't leave us anything to fall back on. I agree Tubby should have worked harder when first hired to shore up the lineup. He signed 3 players, and none of them helped much. If he would have worked as hard as he did when our team imploded this year, we might have had some depth. That criticism is warranted and I agree with it.

But, if you look at things rationally, you'll see that things changed during Pastner's last few years. His recruiting, which was his forte here, started to slip. When he had to hire Keelon to get local players, you knew it was getting bad. With all of the local transfers, word got out to local kids to avoid Memphis. Nationally, we've lost much of the brand that Cal built. Recruits don't remember the last time we made a splash. Attendance is suffering. Things have changed. That's not to say that they can't and won't turn around, but that's where we are now. Tubby inherited a volatile situation and is now in full rebuild, which to be honest, I think is a good thing. Time will tell...

So when Pastner was here it was EASY to win, anyone could win at Memphis and Pastner was the worst coach on the planet. Now all of a sudden poor old Tubby has been dealt an almost impossible hand. We have no brand, local kids hate us, and poor old Tubby inherited a volatile situation.

The truth is that it is easy to win at Memphis and any decent coach who could recruit, who cared about putting a solid staff in place could turn things around very quickly.

Quote:I agree Tubby should have worked harder when first hired to shore up the lineup.

I don't remember all the details, but I do remember Tubby going on vacation not long after he took the job. I had seen enough to get a handle on Tubby when we embarrassed them when he was at Kentucky, but I figured I would give him a chance. That vacation cemented feelings I have had for him for the last 10 years.

(08-13-2017 10:58 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(08-07-2017 07:46 AM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-07-2017 03:19 AM)EricSigEpTNBeta183 Wrote:  I know it's not about CJP but if you are going to use Tubbys COY award why can't I bring up CJP award to show that it means little. Or at least to me. Figured it would mean a lot to you since you brought it up. I also agree that he should have done more with the players he had but lets be honest, how many coaches his age (when he was here) with their first head coaching job ever, even has done what he did (all the years of making the tournament)? Not many. Also by your logic, he shouldn't have won many games last year (since he has not much talent), he took a team that was projected to win single digits and beat some of the best teams in the country, did he not? Don't misread what I am saying, although CJP is an amazing human being, it was time to move on. My view is that we just moved onto the wrong coach.

To counter your point, it would be like buying a stock that flourished in 1990's and early 2000's but hasn't done well since. if you'd like to buy that stock I'd love to know why you are optimistic of something that hasn't been good in over 10 years? Esp when there is NOTHING in recent history to get excited about. I HIGHLY doubt that you would actually buy that stock.

Btw this is EXACTLY what messages boards are for. If everyone is patting each other on the back and saying how things are rainbows and butterflies, it's just lying and setting yourself up for disappointment. I hope more than anything that the ones who feel like this was the wrong hire are wrong themselves (and I bet they would tell you that too) it means that our school/program is doing well. There is just no evidence to point in that direction, none.

Not sure why we continue to have comparisons with Pastner. Like you, I thought Pastner was a great person, recruiter, but not a great coach. He could sign them, but couldn't do much with them or keep them on the team. The transfer rate at Memphis has been ridiculous.

Tubby's conference records were from low end teams at some of the best conferences. We were great in C-USA, but have struggled since. And we certainly aren't playing near the quality of teams that are in the Big 12 or Big 10. Making the tourney at TT or Minnesota isn't easy. People say Bobby Knight did it, which is true, but he is a HOF'er. Little Pitino made the tourney this year at Minn. He's certainly got pedigree and may become an excellent coach in time.

But if you look back, Minnesota has one NCAA tourney win in the last 20 years, and that was Tubby. He took 3 years to get an awful TT team to the tourney. I think it's fair to expect the same here. We all thought he overachieved last year until the end. Did the Lawson's quit? Was it fatigue? My guess is probably both, but when your best two players quit, it just didn't leave us anything to fall back on. I agree Tubby should have worked harder when first hired to shore up the lineup. He signed 3 players, and none of them helped much. If he would have worked as hard as he did when our team imploded this year, we might have had some depth. That criticism is warranted and I agree with it.

But, if you look at things rationally, you'll see that things changed during Pastner's last few years. His recruiting, which was his forte here, started to slip. When he had to hire Keelon to get local players, you knew it was getting bad. With all of the local transfers, word got out to local kids to avoid Memphis. Nationally, we've lost much of the brand that Cal built. Recruits don't remember the last time we made a splash. Attendance is suffering. Things have changed. That's not to say that they can't and won't turn around, but that's where we are now. Tubby inherited a volatile situation and is now in full rebuild, which to be honest, I think is a good thing. Time will tell...

So when Pastner was here it was EASY to win, anyone could win at Memphis and Pastner was the worst coach on the planet. Now all of a sudden poor old Tubby has been dealt an almost impossible hand. We have no brand, local kids hate us, and poor old Tubby inherited a volatile situation.

The truth is that it is easy to win at Memphis and any decent coach who could recruit, who cared about putting a solid staff in place could turn things around very quickly.

Quote:I agree Tubby should have worked harder when first hired to shore up the lineup.

I don't remember all the details, but I do remember Tubby going on vacation not long after he took the job. I had seen enough to get a handle on Tubby when we embarrassed them when he was at Kentucky, but I figured I would give him a chance. That vacation cemented feelings I have had for him for the last 10 years.

Whaaaa!!!

Tubby was late in developing the S&C program and experienced dismal results in his first recruiting class. Both may have been addressed more adequately with Tubby's full attention after his hire at Memphis. A vacation is inappropriate and unproductive for a newly hired coach.

(08-14-2017 07:07 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Tubby was late in developing the S&C program and experienced dismal results in his first recruiting class. Both may have been addressed more adequately with Tubby's full attention after his hire at Memphis. A vacation is inappropriate and unproductive for a newly hired coach.

Any new material?

(08-14-2017 07:13 AM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-14-2017 07:07 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Tubby was late in developing the S&C program and experienced dismal results in his first recruiting class. Both may have been addressed more adequately with Tubby's full attention after his hire at Memphis. A vacation is inappropriate and unproductive for a newly hired coach.

Any new material?

Facts never change. Like history--can't change the facts --just hope the future will be different.

(08-14-2017 08:51 AM)pwman Wrote:  

(08-14-2017 07:13 AM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-14-2017 07:07 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Tubby was late in developing the S&C program and experienced dismal results in his first recruiting class. Both may have been addressed more adequately with Tubby's full attention after his hire at Memphis. A vacation is inappropriate and unproductive for a newly hired coach.

Any new material?

Facts never change. Like history--can't change the facts --just hope the future will be different.

And if history keeps repeating itself...welp...there just ain't no new material.

Bravo you guys. Never seen a group so dedicated and fixated on 1 man. Tubby should give you all some of his signature ice cream lol

You new here ? Fixation on our BB program isn't new. I'm not down with the slow plan when there is no evidence to prove it will work.

(08-14-2017 05:51 PM)snowtiger Wrote:  You new here ? Fixation on our BB program isn't new. I'm not down with the slow plan when there is no evidence to prove it will work.

So what are you "down with"? And exactly what are you gonna do about it but whine profusely?

(08-14-2017 05:51 PM)snowtiger Wrote:  You new here ? Fixation on our BB program isn't new. I'm not down with the slow plan when there is no evidence to prove it will work.

tbh, no one really cares


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The intense interest in Tiger basketball is an asset to the program. It only turns to a liability to a coach failing to meet minimum performance standards or failing to adequately acheive factors leading to success.

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