ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM). Has projected 34.6 wins for the Griz and a 12th place finish in the West.

Good thing Memphis is now a football town.

People have been picking the Grizzlies to miss the playoffs for years

(08-05-2017 02:38 PM)Dynamos Wrote:  People have been picking the Grizzlies to miss the playoffs for years

Uh, really?

2016:

ESPN has Memphis the #11 team.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/17873...on-edition

Vegas had them 7th in predicted win in the west
http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/2016-...ons-092016

2015:
Grizz were 10th in vegas odds
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/25759...l-30-teams

2014:
Grizz were 14th according to Vegas and 7th in the west


Not sure how far one needs to go back, but it seems the "for years" statement is off base.

35 wins was kind of shocking. But RPM is a weird metric.

For instance, I like Nikola Jokic from the Nuggets, but his RPM puts him 6th in the league last year. KD, for instance, was 11th. Does anyone really think Jokic is near the player that Durant is?

ZaZa Pachulia was 30th in the league, and Marc Gasol was 36th. Yet ZaZa played 18.1 minutes per game and averaged 6.1 ppg last year.

Like I said, RPM is weird.

LMAO

Stick to the Cheetos and race cars

(08-05-2017 02:45 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  2016:

ESPN has Memphis the #11 team.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/17873...on-edition

Vegas had them 7th in predicted win in the west
http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/2016-...ons-092016

2015:
Grizz were 10th in vegas odds
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/25759...l-30-teams

2014:
Grizz were 14th according to Vegas and 7th in the west


Not sure how far one needs to go back, but it seems the "for years" statement is off base.

The projection had them at 39 wins last year and they won an extra FOUR GAMES in order to make it as others under performed. They are predicting almost 10 fewer wins this season. Which would have them below 500 and out of playoffs. The heart and soul of the team is gone this year.

The West got a whole lot better and we've remained the same or slightly worse. I will not be surprised if we miss the playoffs. If that's the case then we need to unload Gasol and Conley's contract for some mid to late round draft picks.

(08-05-2017 05:52 PM)Crazier Wrote:  The West got a whole lot better and we've remained the same or slightly worse. I will not be surprised if we miss the playoffs. If that's the case then we need to unload Gasol and Conley's contract for some mid to late round draft picks.

Blazers didn't get better
Clippers got worse
Jazz got worse

Some of the top teams got better along with the Timberwolves. Grizz still has one of the top 5 PGs in the West and a top 2-3 Center. Barring any major injuries they will be in the POs as a low seed (6-8 seed).

(08-05-2017 05:02 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(08-05-2017 02:45 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  2016:

ESPN has Memphis the #11 team.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/17873...on-edition

Vegas had them 7th in predicted win in the west
http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/2016-...ons-092016

2015:
Grizz were 10th in vegas odds
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/25759...l-30-teams

2014:
Grizz were 14th according to Vegas and 7th in the west


Not sure how far one needs to go back, but it seems the "for years" statement is off base.

The projection had them at 39 wins last year and they won an extra FOUR GAMES in order to make it as others under performed. They are predicting almost 10 fewer wins this season. Which would have them below 500 and out of playoffs. The heart and soul of the team is gone this year.

I don't care about that.

I'm merely rebutting the idea that "people have been predicting the Grizzlies to miss the playoffs for years."

A lot lower than I expected.

(08-05-2017 02:38 PM)Dynamos Wrote:  People have been picking the Grizzlies to miss the playoffs for years

Don't know the answer re the playoffs, but there is no doubt that the models have consistently projected fewer wins for the Grizz than they eventually have.

We can go to the horses mouth on this. Pelton did an hour podcast with Tim Bontemps yesterday. About 20 minutes in, they talk about Hollinger for a minute, and then talk for several minutes about the Grizz and their historical projections.

Bontemps: People in Memphis are " . . . fit to be tied about being picked to finish 11th with only 34 wins. It's become a running joke that every year Memphis is projected to finish several less wins than they do. They always seem to outperform differentials."

Pelton generally agrees, though less so in recent years, especially the injury year of '15-'16. Get this quote: " . . . from 2010-2014, Memphis outperformed from 7 and 1/2 to 8 wins per year . . ." Pretty huge number.

Bontemps & Pelton talk more about this, agree that main reason Memphis consistently outperforms is that the Grizz win more than its share of close games.

(08-05-2017 05:02 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(08-05-2017 02:45 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  2016:

ESPN has Memphis the #11 team.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/17873...on-edition

Vegas had them 7th in predicted win in the west
http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/2016-...ons-092016

2015:
Grizz were 10th in vegas odds
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/25759...l-30-teams

2014:
Grizz were 14th according to Vegas and 7th in the west


Not sure how far one needs to go back, but it seems the "for years" statement is off base.

The projection had them at 39 wins last year and they won an extra FOUR GAMES in order to make it as others under performed. They are predicting almost 10 fewer wins this season. Which would have them below 500 and out of playoffs. The heart and soul of the team is gone this year.

IDGAF about ESPN metrics.

Vegas had the Grizz o/u at 43.5 last year. The Grizz lost their last two games of the season and finished with 43 wins.

If Mark and Mike stay healthy, we make the playoffs. IF.

Top 3 will be GS, SAS, and Houston.

Wolves and OKC probably 4 and 5 in some order.

After that, you have a tier with NOLA, MEM, Nuggets, Portland, and the Clips with the Lakers, Kings and Jazz right behind. So basically 3 spots being fought for by 8 teams. If we stay healthy(big IF) then we should be able to get 1 of those 3.

Now, if Marc or Mike get hurt then we are looking at a loooooooong season

(08-08-2017 08:29 AM)Tigx Wrote:  

(08-05-2017 02:38 PM)Dynamos Wrote:  People have been picking the Grizzlies to miss the playoffs for years

Don't know the answer re the playoffs, but there is no doubt that the models have consistently projected fewer wins for the Grizz than they eventually have.

We can go to the horses mouth on this. Pelton did an hour podcast with Tim Bontemps yesterday. About 20 minutes in, they talk about Hollinger for a minute, and then talk for several minutes about the Grizz and their historical projections.

Bontemps: People in Memphis are " . . . fit to be tied about being picked to finish 11th with only 34 wins. It's become a running joke that every year Memphis is projected to finish several less wins than they do. They always seem to outperform differentials."

Pelton generally agrees, though less so in recent years, especially the injury year of '15-'16. Get this quote: " . . . from 2010-2014, Memphis outperformed from 7 and 1/2 to 8 wins per year . . ." Pretty huge number.

Bontemps & Pelton talk more about this, agree that main reason Memphis consistently outperforms is that the Grizz win more than its share of close games.

If people spout BS long enough those who don't care to independently look it up are foolish.

A simple "google" of Grizzlies over-unders for all playoff year shows the Grizz have outperformed three seasons, under performed one, and essentially pushed three times.

2010: o/u: 39.5 actual: 46
2012: o/u: 39.5 actual: 41 (short season)
2013: o/u: 48.5 actual: 56
2014: o/u: 50.5 actual: 50
2014: o/u: 49.0 actual: 55
2016: o/u: 50.5 actual: 42
2017: o/u: 43.5 actual: 43

So, "technically" the Grizz have not met their o/u three of the last four years.

I certainly recognize when Vegas misses, they generally underestimate the Grizz. However, this narrative that they "always" seem to outperform differentials or they have been picking Memphis to miss the playoffs "for years." And actually, the average o/u is 45.9 with the actual win total at 47.6. Over seven years, the o/u prediction averages less than 2 wins away from the actual total.

Saluki, first of all, take it up with Pelton, you know, the guy who does the projections, who admits the Grizz have outperformed. Sorry the author agrees with us, not you.

Second, where do you get your numbers? I don't think they are RPM. You have this habit of picking and choosing data to back up your narrative.

For instance, Pelton said on the Posting Up pod that Memphis' RPM for 15-16, our injury year, was 47, not the 50.5 you say. I don't care about Vegas over/unders, Vegas sets lines to generate bets.

And you use a full year stat for '12, when the league only played 66 games that year. If you pro-rata'd that, it would be another approx. +7 differential, as Pelton correctly pointed out.

(08-08-2017 09:29 AM)Tigx Wrote:  Saluki, first of all, take it up with Pelton, you know, the guy who does the projections, who admits the Grizz have outperformed. Sorry the author agrees with us, not you.

Second, where do you get your numbers? I don't think they are RPM. You have this habit of picking and choosing data to back up your narrative.

For instance, Pelton said on the Posting Up pod that Memphis' RPM for 15-16, our injury year, was 47, not the 50.5 you say. I don't care about Vegas over/unders, Vegas sets lines to generate bets.

And you use a full year stat for '12, when the league only played 66 games that year. If you pro-rata'd that, it would be another approx. +7 differential, as Pelton correctly pointed out.

Vegas didn't set o/u based upon a full season. That's just silly. And if Pelton doesn't know that, wel...

Again, RPM formula is just some bs number. BUT, if folks want to complain about how the "RPM formula" then go ahead.

Vegas is by far and away the most accurate source of "predictions" out there. Because it is their job to hit the number that makes the most sense.

As much as folks try to tap dance with the idea that the job is to "get action" the by-product of that is being eerily close more often than not concerning a final outcome.

"Vegas" is not one number, it's many numbers. Hence, you or I could pick whatever "Vegas" projection we want, if it supports our narrative.

I said in the beginning that RPM is a weird metric, but it makes no sense to intersperse RPM and a "Vegas" number to try to make a point.

I don't know of anyone, and I read all the blogs and listen to a lot of NBA pods, who doesn't acknowledge that the Grizz have outperformed the metrics since the beginning of the Big 4 era.

(08-08-2017 09:29 AM)Tigx Wrote:  And you use a full year stat for '12, when the league only played 66 games that year. If you pro-rata'd that, it would be another approx. +7 differential, as Pelton correctly pointed out.

False.

Here, even recognizes the shortened year. And, oh, Pelton's dumb azz predicted Memphis winning 32 games that year--nine games off.

http://thepaintedarea.blogspot.com/2011/...tions.html

(08-08-2017 09:52 AM)Tigx Wrote:  "Vegas" is not one number, it's many numbers. Hence, you or I could pick whatever "Vegas" projection we want, if it supports our narrative.

I said in the beginning that RPM is a weird metric, but it makes no sense to intersperse RPM and a "Vegas" number to try to make a point.

I don't know of anyone, and I read all the blogs and listen to a lot of NBA pods, who doesn't acknowledge that the Grizz have outperformed the metrics since the beginning of the Big 4 era.

One can say certain humans keep under estimating, but vegas hasn't--especially in recent years.

They have consistently had the Grizz as odds-on playoff teams.

As for the "bpm" again, it's just some made up number that they can pimp on their shows--like the NCAA BPI they use.

Depending on the book, Memphis' o/u this year is either 40.5 or 41.5. That number has Memphis 8th in most playoff standings based upon other team's o/u.