(08-08-2017 08:29 AM)Tigx Wrote: (08-05-2017 02:38 PM)Dynamos Wrote: People have been picking the Grizzlies to miss the playoffs for years
Don't know the answer re the playoffs, but there is no doubt that the models have consistently projected fewer wins for the Grizz than they eventually have.
We can go to the horses mouth on this. Pelton did an hour podcast with Tim Bontemps yesterday. About 20 minutes in, they talk about Hollinger for a minute, and then talk for several minutes about the Grizz and their historical projections.
Bontemps: People in Memphis are " . . . fit to be tied about being picked to finish 11th with only 34 wins. It's become a running joke that every year Memphis is projected to finish several less wins than they do. They always seem to outperform differentials."
Pelton generally agrees, though less so in recent years, especially the injury year of '15-'16. Get this quote: " . . . from 2010-2014, Memphis outperformed from 7 and 1/2 to 8 wins per year . . ." Pretty huge number.
Bontemps & Pelton talk more about this, agree that main reason Memphis consistently outperforms is that the Grizz win more than its share of close games.
If people spout BS long enough those who don't care to independently look it up are foolish.
A simple "google" of Grizzlies over-unders for all playoff year shows the Grizz have outperformed three seasons, under performed one, and essentially pushed three times.
2010: o/u: 39.5 actual: 46
2012: o/u: 39.5 actual: 41 (short season)
2013: o/u: 48.5 actual: 56
2014: o/u: 50.5 actual: 50
2014: o/u: 49.0 actual: 55
2016: o/u: 50.5 actual: 42
2017: o/u: 43.5 actual: 43
So, "technically" the Grizz have not met their o/u three of the last four years.
I certainly recognize when Vegas misses, they generally underestimate the Grizz. However, this narrative that they "always" seem to outperform differentials or they have been picking Memphis to miss the playoffs "for years." And actually, the average o/u is 45.9 with the actual win total at 47.6. Over seven years, the o/u prediction averages less than 2 wins away from the actual total.