Great question that was posed in the other thread. Who is in the so called P5 that doesn't really belong there. And don't give me they all do, because they happened to join some conference 100 years ago, which happened to morph into a power conference with little to no input from them. Ready, go!

Wake Forest

How about Baylor? Politics got them in the B12. Did they really belong there, though. They were terrible for years before Briles got there. Why should they have gotten in instead of Houston, SMU, etc.

Depends on how you define power school. Arguably, any school that couldnt carry a P5 conference on its own isnt really a power school. Since, by definition, they effectively derive thier "power" status by virtue of being in a power conference. Where as---a true power school is a power school regardless of what conference they are in because what ever conference they are a part of becomes a power conference. Put UT in the AAC and its a power conference. Take Texas and Oklahoma out of the Big12, and it not a power conference.

In today's "market" world, would a "from scratch" SEC invite both Miss and Miss State? Auburn and Alabama? Vandy and Tennessee?

When you look at the Deep South states:

Arkansas - one P5
Louisiana - one P5
Mississippi - two P5
Alabama - two P5
Kentucky - two P5 (one newcomer in a separate conference)
Tennessee - two P5 (only one Public)
Georgia - two P5, in separate conferences
Florida - three P5 (two public, each in separate conferences)
South Carolina - two P5, in separate conferences
North Carolina - 4 P5 (two public)

(08-03-2017 05:07 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Arguably, any school that couldnt carry a P5 conference on its own isnt really a power school. Since, by definition, they effectively derive thier "power" status by virtue of being in a power conference. Where as, some schools, wherever they are becomes a power conference. Put UT in the AAC and its a power conference. Take Texas and Oklahoma out of the Big12, and it not a power conference.

So by your estimation, which schools would you consider capable of carrying a league?

(08-03-2017 05:10 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(08-03-2017 05:07 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Arguably, any school that couldnt carry a P5 conference on its own isnt really a power school. Since, by definition, they effectively derive thier "power" status by virtue of being in a power conference. Where as, some schools, wherever they are becomes a power conference. Put UT in the AAC and its a power conference. Take Texas and Oklahoma out of the Big12, and it not a power conference.

So by your estimation, which schools would you consider capable of carrying a league?

Not many. Ohio St, Michigan St, UT, Alabama, Penn St, USC----schools like that. I'd say there's probably only about a dozen---maybe less. I think its worth noting that there MAY be another tier of schools that cant carry a P5 conference on their own---but if grouped with other schools in the same tier--the networks MIGHT would consider that a power conference as well. The ACC was kinda like that before the emergence of the Florida schools. Hard to say today because there isnt really a good example of that in the current conference landscape. Every P5 conference today has a a "true" power schools that CAN carry a conference. In fact, thats the main reason I dont think the AAC can ever be a real power conference.

While I respect what they do over there and belive they will have a good team this season, Wake Forest doesn't make a lot of sense. School and fanbase is just to small to justify as P5 in comparison to G5 programs like Houston Boise Cincy UConn BYU.

They all belong because they're grandfathered in. If any don't belong, they'll be left behind or pushed out. I think we'll see many of the original ACC schools break off after a generation. Maybe Syracuse and Pitt won't survive if so. BC for certain wouldn't and Notre Dame would go to the Big East or A-10. If the Big 12 breaks up, all of the refugees should be fine except maybe Baylor, Texas Tech and TCU.

(08-03-2017 05:28 PM)ULdave Wrote:  While I respect what they do over there and belive they will have a good team this season, Wake Forest doesn't make a lot of sense. School and fanbase is just to small to justify as P5 in comparison to G5 programs like Houston Boise Cincy UConn BYU.

But they're grandfathered in and have been in for generations. Lucky for them and Duke they're on the inside because if leagues were drafted today they may not make the cut, even with Duke's amazing basketball program. Davidson just as easily could have been in the original ACC.

I would kick NC State out before Wake Forest. Wake has won titles in both major sports since NC State has and as a private school brings more to the table for the conference administratively.

Oh really, Wake has won a basketball national title since ? You must mean conference title.

Well, first we have to understand that football drives the buss. The whole P5 designation was created with football in mind.

So the way I look at it is I look at the teams that have done jack #$%* with the decades playing football. I am talking about not even winning an elite bowl within the past 3 decades. Previous national champions greater than 3 decades ago get a waiver.

Using my method........ you basically eliminate 33 percent or greater of the P5 doormat teams and add 4 or so G5 teams.

(08-03-2017 05:09 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  In today's "market" world, would a "from scratch" SEC invite both Miss and Miss State? Auburn and Alabama? Vandy and Tennessee?

When you look at the Deep South states:

Arkansas - one P5
Louisiana - one P5
Mississippi - two P5
Alabama - two P5
Kentucky - two P5 (one newcomer in a separate conference)
Tennessee - two P5 (only one Public)
Georgia - two P5, in separate conferences
Florida - three P5 (two public, each in separate conferences)
South Carolina - two P5, in separate conferences
North Carolina - 4 P5 (two public)

This is an interesting thought exercise. AR and LA are easy, as they've only one school each. In TN, certainly not Vanderbilt, and of the two in MS, they'd probably only take Ole Miss. In FL, you could make an argument for all 3 schools basely on population alone, and two for GA and NC (presumably UNC and Duke for the latter, although NCSU is still much better than WF). The others are trickier. Based on their current success, both Alabama and Auburn would be great adds for a conference despite sharing a mid-sized state. South Carolina has more fans across the state, but Clemson is definitely better on the field. Similar situation with Kentucky and Louisville, although UK has elite basketball status going for it.

It's not about merit, it just is what it is. How many of you inherited a fortune? If you did, give it or some of it to me. You clearly didn't earn your money and wealth. See how ignorant that sounds?

That said, I am open to millions of dollars if you have it.

I always thought it would be cool to have two southern elite conferences by splitting the schools in each state up.

Example:
SEC
Maryland
Navy
Virginia
North Carolina
Duke
Wake Forest
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Alabama
Mississippi
Tennessee
Kentucky
Tulane
Arkansas
Texas
Rice
SMU
Baylor
Oklahoma

SOCON
West Virginia
Louisville
Virginia Tech
NC State
ECU
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Miami
Auburn
Mississippi State
LSU
Vanderbilt
Memphis
Texas A&M
Houston
Texas Tech
TCU
Oklahoma State
Tulsa

The answer is obvious. There are 5 P5 schools that don't belong:

Wash St
Baylor
Northwestern
Vandy
Wake Forest

I doubt either Mississippi school gets an invite to "from scratch SEC" unless that scratch starts at 18-20 schools.

Southern State populations divided by P-5 numbers:

MD + DC 7 million / 1 = 7 million
Florida 20.6 / 3 = 6.8 million
Texas 28 million / 5 = 5.6 million
Georgia 10 million / 5 = 5 million
Louisiana 4.6 million / 5 = 5 million
Va + DC 9 million / 2 = 4.5 million
Tennessee 6.6 million / 2 = 3.3 million
Arkansas 3 million/ 3 = 3 million
NC 10 million/ 4 = 2.5 million
SC 4.9 million/2 = 2.5 million
Alabama 4.6 million/2 = 2.3 million
Kentucky 4.4 million/2 = 2.2 million
Oklahoma 3.9 million/2 = 1.9 million
Mississippi 3 million/2 = 1.5 million

If you are going by population of a State and it's market, neither Mississippi school would make a "from scratch" 12 team SEC. Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, and Tennessee more than penetrate those small markets, making both redundant.

Here are your first 12 - solely on the market they can deliver and football:

Texas
TAMU
Oklahoma
LSU
Alabama
Tennessee
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
North Carolina
Virginia Tech
Maryland

The next four would be

Clemson - adds State of SC
Kentucky - adds State of KY
Auburn - second school in Alabama, AND, Georgia due to location
and Miami, NC State, Duke, Arkansas, or UVa

If you start from scratch, you would fill the openings almost like the way an atom fills orbital shells in the electron cloud. The first shells fill based on football and market. The market of the first big state school is the entire state. As you see only Texas and Florida merit a second school off the bat. The next two fills add the state of SC and KY. Then the third of Florida, second of NC, or Va, or first of Arkansas, a small population state. In a football world, Duke basketball and a 30K seat stadium that can't be filled, is not likely to be the second North Carolina team for a population of 10 million.

From scratch without political entanglements you probably start with at least 20 - 24 just like the old Southern Conference. Large state pairs are Texas/TAMU, Florida/FSU, GA/GT, UNC/NCSU, VA/VT, The only small state pair would be Bama/Auburn. Single state and small state schools would be Oklahoma, LSU, Arkansas, MD, Kentucky, Tennessee, Clemson, and then Ole Miss.

Duke, Miami, Vandy, and TCU, would be 4 privates fighting Louisville, SC, Texas Tech, and MSU for the last four spots in a 24 school conference. Duke and Miami make powerful thirds from large states. I have no idea how you would fill the last two likely spots.

There is no starting from scratch. The SoCon could not start from scratch in 1921.

Clemson, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and the two Texas schools would face intense pressure from SC, MSU, Louisville, and TT.

Bottom line is that in the "orbital shell" filling theory, Wake Forest is screwed until the size gets to 32. Only at 32 does WF, Oklahoma State, and WVa have a chance.

Why is it insufficient for Wake Forest to be in the P-5 if UNC, NC State, Duke, UVa, VT, and GT like WF in the P-5 and like it enough to split money with them?

(08-03-2017 06:11 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  They all belong because they're grandfathered in. If any don't belong, they'll be left behind or pushed out. I think we'll see many of the original ACC schools break off after a generation. Maybe Syracuse and Pitt won't survive if so. BC for certain wouldn't and Notre Dame would go to the Big East or A-10. If the Big 12 breaks up, all of the refugees should be fine except maybe Baylor, Texas Tech and TCU.

You mean like that time when SU, Pitt, and BC founded an AQ football conference?

The ACC isn't carrying any of those schools. All 3 were added in the last 15 years, so all 3 brought something to the table above the ACC's average. Also, those schools were the heart of an original AQ conference, all of those schools have very long traditions, and none of them have ever played in anything but the highest level of football.