The pre season coaches poll has 4 Big 10 schools in the Top 10: Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn State. Meanwhile in the first two weeks of the Season Alabama will play Florida State and Auburn will play Clemson. So out of the supposed leaders of the SEC and ACC half of them will face the remainder of the season with 1 loss pretty much from the start. Meanwhile Ohio State catches Oklahoma in a coaching transition and Michigan catches Florida. Florida is ranked 16th and Oklahoma ranked 8th. While the distance between rankings for those are relatively similar the circumstances are different. They are different because Michigan isn't playing an SEC front runner and because Ohio State caught a break in the transition of coaches. That said I'm willing to say that this was a wash to some extent.

What's not a wash are the OOC schedules of Penn State and Wisconsin. I challenge you to look them up as it is a tale of two directions. Penn State clearly will have a difficult schedule to navigate. The toughest OOC game they have is in week 3 against Pitt. The rest of the their Big 10 schedule features harder Big 10 games than most of the rest of the Big 10 will face. Wisconsin on the other hand will face B.Y.U. as their toughest pre conference game and will only face two Big 10 schools likely to challenge the Badgers the rest of the way.

So I'm going to submit that since the SEC and ACC are internally deeper through the mid tier and have fewer perennial lower tier schools than the tremendous number of lower tier Big 10 schools that playing our early OOC games against each other is actually going to hurt both conferences coming down the stretch.

Now this isn't some vast conspiracy, but I think the Big 10 having the larger bottom actually padded their own schedules by playing the additional conference game. The SEC has traditionally had Vanderbilt at the bottom and Kentucky and Miss State vied for the other spot. In the ACC many years it's Wake Forest and B.C.. But the Big 10 has had Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern, Illinois, and now Rutgers and Maryland and frequently Minnesota in those slots. Iowa and sometimes Minnesota are their middle.

It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out, and I haven't really looked at the PAC, but I found the schedules (particularly OOC games to be an interesting point of comparison).

If any of Alabama, Auburn, FL St, or Clemson win their respective conference with 1-loss, they're in the CFP no questions asked.

The more interesting question will be an SEC or ACC winner with 2-losses, and all other P5 winners with 1 or 0 losses, which could easily include both Ohio St and Oklahoma ... one of which having incurred a loss to the other. Meaning those four have no room to slip up to a NC State or a Texas A&M type program.

Have to factor in that the ACC and SEC only play 8 conference games each.

Can't blame ESPN either way for any of the Pac-12 schedules -- well, of course you can blame ESPN for the game times -- because IIRC no Pac-12 teams are playing in any of those made-for-ESPN games this season.

Michigan is playing an SEC East front-runner, but obviously there's a big difference between being an SEC East front-runner and being an SEC front-runner.

Agreed that Wisconsin has the softest schedule of any team in the top 15 at least. They don't play Ohio State or Penn State, they play Michigan (who is not as good as their preseason ranking) at home, and their other east division opponents are Maryland and Indiana. That schedule is an express ticket to the Big Ten title game and probably an 11-1 or 12-0 record when that game kicks off.

Yes, Wisconsin is this year's version of 2015 Iowa.

That team only had 8 Big Ten games, with Maryland at home and at Indiana, though they did play at Iowa St and home vs Pitt for "defacto" 9th and 10th "Big Ten West type" games.

(08-03-2017 02:59 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  If any of Alabama, Auburn, FL St, or Clemson win their respective conference with 1-loss, they're in the CFP no questions asked.

The more interesting question will be an SEC or ACC winner with 2-losses, and all other P5 winners with 1 or 0 losses, which could easily include both Ohio St and Oklahoma ... one of which having incurred a loss to the other. Meaning those four have no room to slip up to a NC State or a Texas A&M type program.

Well the problem for the four mentioned ACC/SEC schools is that Auburn will play Alabama and Florida will play Florida State and Florida State will play Clemson, and Clemson will play South Carolina and that doesn't even include the rest of their conference games.

Ohio State and Michigan will face comparable situations, but Wisconsin does not, and it's not even close. Poor Penn State on the other hand might have a softer opening three than the ACC/SEC grouping, but they face a daunting conference lineup.

It's going to be interesting to see how this set up plays out. It just seemed to me in looking at the Big 10 schedule the softer bottom tier and the larger than normal competitive tier, without much in the middle makes for an interesting question about their 9th conference game. But the inequity in scheduling within the Big 10 seems to another issue. Wisconsin walks and Penn State faces a gauntlet.

It reminded me of some of the Alabama schedules that Bear faced in the 70's, but the SEC has been much better about that since the 80's and certainly since we went to divisions. I just found the Wisconsin advantage to be enormous in the age of divisions.

You're right about Wisc. See post #4

I think the two ACC-SEC match ups you mention JR and high/risk high reward games. The teams that walk away from those games with wins will position themselves well for a playoff run. The losers are going to have a very small margin of error and are probably going to have to win out or get help from elsewhere.

If one of those 4 schools (or one form each conference) wins their marquee OOC game and their in-conference rivalry game that's an excellent resume. Where things get tricky is if all 4 of those teams walk away from those games with 1-1 records.

(08-03-2017 03:10 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Yes, Wisconsin is this year's version of 2015 Iowa.

That team only had 8 Big Ten games, with Maryland at home and at Indiana, though they did play at Iowa St and home vs Pitt for "defacto" 9th and 10th "Big Ten West type" games.

Yes, but everyrhing worked out.

Iowa did beat ranked Wisconsin and NW teams to start 12-0 and win the division, but in the end still needed to win the CCG to make the playoffs, which Iowa failed to do. And nobody complained. Even though Iowa finished 12-1, nobody, not even Iowa fans, thought Iowa deserved a playoff bid. Iowa had its chance, and came close, but didn't win the last game it needed to.

The same will be true for Wisc in 2017. Even if they start 12-0, they still won't make the playoffs unless they win the CCG, which is fair.

Honestly I would rather be battle tested by a tough schedule come playoff time than get drilled by a combined 69-0 like the Big Slow has in the opening round the past two years.

Fun fact to consider before these big-name non-conference games:

2014 Ohio State is the only playoff team, out of the 12 so far, that lost a regular-season non-conference game.

I'd say this might be evidence that ESPN is not as omnipotent and omniscient as some think, but perhaps ESPN moves in mysterious ways....

You know, not everything has to be about the playoffs.

What's wrong with just playing a tough opponent because you want to see a good competative game?

(08-03-2017 05:33 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think the two ACC-SEC match ups you mention JR and high/risk high reward games. The teams that walk away from those games with wins will position themselves well for a playoff run. The losers are going to have a very small margin of error and are probably going to have to win out or get help from elsewhere.

If one of those 4 schools (or one form each conference) wins their marquee OOC game and their in-conference rivalry game that's an excellent resume. Where things get tricky is if all 4 of those teams walk away from those games with 1-1 records.

Looking at it from the ACC side, not only does FSU have Alabama and Clemson have Auburn, but FSU and Clemson also have each other, guaranteeing one loss. And, FSU also has Miami and Florida as well. They could each have 2 losses before the postseason.

(08-03-2017 06:44 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Fun fact to consider before these big-name non-conference games:

2014 Ohio State is the only playoff team, out of the 12 so far, that lost a regular-season non-conference game.

And 2014 Ohio St. won the national championship...

All other CFP teams but one (2016 Washington) played in and won marquee OOC games:

2014 Oregon beat Michigan St.
2014 FSU beat Oklahoma St. and Notre Dame
2014 Alabama beat West Virginia

2015 Alabama beat Wisconsin
2015 Clemson beat Notre Dame and South Carolina
2015 Michigan St. beat Oregon
2015 Oklahoma beat Tennessee

2016 Clemson beat Auburn and South Carolina
2016 Alabama beat USC
2016 Ohio St. beat Oklahoma

2016 Washington was the only CFP team that didn't play a marquee OOC game (Rutgers doesn't count)

Compare to the #5 and #6 teams in the CFP rankings and their OOC resumes:

2014 Baylor (SMU, Buffalo, FCS)
2014 TCU (Minnesota, SMU, FCS)

2015 Iowa (Pitt, Iowa St., N. Texas, FCS)[lost B1G CCG]
2015 Stanford (lost to Northwestern; beat Notre Dame, UCF)

2016 Penn St. (lost to Pitt; beat Kent St., Temple)
2016 Michigan (Colorado, UCF, Hawaii)[2 B1G losses]

(08-04-2017 11:07 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(08-03-2017 05:33 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think the two ACC-SEC match ups you mention JR and high/risk high reward games. The teams that walk away from those games with wins will position themselves well for a playoff run. The losers are going to have a very small margin of error and are probably going to have to win out or get help from elsewhere.

If one of those 4 schools (or one form each conference) wins their marquee OOC game and their in-conference rivalry game that's an excellent resume. Where things get tricky is if all 4 of those teams walk away from those games with 1-1 records.

Looking at it from the ACC side, not only does FSU have Alabama and Clemson have Auburn, but FSU and Clemson also have each other, guaranteeing one loss. And, FSU also has Miami and Florida as well. They could each have 2 losses before the postseason.

Given what has happened in the playoffs the last two years, it would be hard to keep out either the SEC or ACC champ - even with two losses.

Also, not sure if this is what the other poster meant, but every CFP national champion so far has lost a game in the regular season - no undefeated champs yet!

(08-04-2017 09:46 AM)goofus Wrote:  You know, not everything has to be about the playoffs.

What's wrong with just playing a tough opponent because you want to see a good competative game?

If you are in a P5 conference and your goal isn't the playoffs then your just taking up space that could go to a more deserving program.

(08-04-2017 11:26 AM)YNot Wrote:  

(08-03-2017 06:44 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Fun fact to consider before these big-name non-conference games:

2014 Ohio State is the only playoff team, out of the 12 so far, that lost a regular-season non-conference game.

And 2014 Ohio St. won the national championship...

All other CFP teams but one (2016 Washington) played in and won marquee OOC games:

2014 Oregon beat Michigan St.
2014 FSU beat Oklahoma St. and Notre Dame
2014 Alabama beat West Virginia

2015 Alabama beat Wisconsin
2015 Clemson beat Notre Dame and South Carolina
2015 Michigan St. beat Oregon
2015 Oklahoma beat Tennessee

2016 Clemson beat Auburn and South Carolina
2016 Alabama beat USC
2016 Ohio St. beat Oklahoma

2016 Washington was the only CFP team that didn't play a marquee OOC game (Rutgers doesn't count)

Compare to the #5 and #6 teams in the CFP rankings and their OOC resumes:

2014 Baylor (SMU, Buffalo, FCS)
2014 TCU (Minnesota, SMU, FCS)

2015 Iowa (Pitt, Iowa St., N. Texas, FCS)[lost B1G CCG]
2015 Stanford (lost to Northwestern; beat Notre Dame, UCF)

2016 Penn St. (lost to Pitt; beat Kent St., Temple)
2016 Michigan (Colorado, UCF, Hawaii)[2 B1G losses]

It's a huge stretch to call some of those games "marquee" when they're really just games vs. a P5 opponent -- for example, check the W-L records of 2014 West Virginia, 2014 Oklahoma State, and 2015-2016 South Carolina.

But ... if you're a 12-0 or 13-0 P5 conference champ, you're in no matter who you played, and if you're a one-loss P5 champ, you're in for sure unless there are more than 4 champs that year with fewer than 2 losses.

The (brief) history shows that regardless of kvetching about scheduling, when the final vote is taken, having fewer losses with any schedule is better than having more losses with a tough schedule. Penn State was the Big Ten champ with a win over Ohio State and would probably have been in the playoff last season if they had played an FCS team instead of Pittsburgh. Stanford would have had a good chance of being chosen the year before that if they had played an FCS opponent instead of Northwestern - especially given that Stanford played Notre Dame and thus already had a P5 opponent on the schedule.

It's very possible that Ohio State is the only exception to the overall pattern and to the preference for conference champs, and got the benefit of the doubt in both 2014 and 2016, just because they're Ohio State.

Don't want to go round and round again on this same debate that was had last year ... but Penn St should've been in the CFP instead of Ohio St. Would've done better than the pathetic egg OSU laid, too.

(08-04-2017 03:00 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Don't want to go round and round again on this same debate that was had last year ... but Penn St should've been in the CFP instead of Ohio St. Would've done better than the pathetic egg OSU laid, too.

No they wouldn't have. They might have scored but Clemson would have drug that defense of theirs up and down the field. Clemson's slot receivers and Jordan Leggett at TE would have beat Penn State's sub-par safeties like they were small children. 56-10 isn't better than 31-0 no matter how much you try to spin it.

Clemson might've won, but score would've been 28-24 or the like.