Yep. In my purple shaded opinion I think JMU has a 50/50 chance of being back in Frisco (combining the odds of #1 and #2 below). But looking at playoff history, history says:
1. Both schools make it- extremely remote chance
2. One school makes it- better chance (I could go with an arguement that that is the highest chance).
3. Neither school makes it- greatest chance.

If neither JMU or NDSU make it then the people who purchase early should plan on eating it..(the entire cost or a large portion of it). Just like my insurance analogy. You pay for insurance premiums. You don't get it back (in this case $$ from Frisco Aug ticket purchases) if you don't use it (JMU (or NDSU) making the NC game)...

NDSU fans were extremely lucky last year with the construction limiting capacity to around 16k. If it had been the closer to 22k that it was the year prior for NDSU/JSU then there would have have been a lot of NDSU fans eating those ticket or having to unload them at fraction cost last Dec..

(08-02-2017 08:36 AM)Potomac Wrote:  I kind of look at it this way. $150 today for two tickets and worst case scenario is I don't sell them and eat that money. If it sells out, I'm not high enough up JMU's priority list and I don't get the 4k given and we face NDSU or UM, I'm easily spending at least $400 for two tickets now on the secondary market, maybe more.

You can forget about UM. Last year 6-5/3-5. This year picked to finish 6th in the Big Sky. Maybe they could make the playoffs, but they are no NC contender. Don't know what the heck happened to their program.
http://pressboxsports.net/2017-big-sky-f...l-preview/

(08-02-2017 08:08 AM)HyperDuke Wrote:  

(08-01-2017 10:49 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(08-01-2017 10:21 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(08-01-2017 09:43 PM)HyperDuke Wrote:  If you can buy 8 instead of 4, you should (or more). I would think odds heavily favor either JMU or NDSU getting to Frisco, so seems like a small risk.

I know about NDSU's 5 year run but personally I think the chances are greater neither will make the championship game.

Yep. I said it earlier this year. 39 I-AA playoff seasons 1978-2016. Never before have 2 teams that faced it other in the semis one season both faced each other in the NC game the following season. Could happen, but chance is very slim.

I understand people wanting to buy in Aug though (esp those not high enough up in Duke Club ranking to get through JMU). If in 39 years you've never totaled your vehicle or had your house burn down, you still buy home and auto insurance...

I'm not saying it's likely that BOTH will make the game. Just that I think it's highly likely that ONE of the two will make it. That should be enough demand to sell any extras.

BDK's comment is different than mine. I do think it is more likely neither make the championship than one or both do. For both - "highly" unlikely/longshot

Right. I understood that.

(08-02-2017 12:50 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(08-02-2017 08:08 AM)HyperDuke Wrote:  

(08-01-2017 10:49 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(08-01-2017 10:21 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(08-01-2017 09:43 PM)HyperDuke Wrote:  If you can buy 8 instead of 4, you should (or more). I would think odds heavily favor either JMU or NDSU getting to Frisco, so seems like a small risk.

I know about NDSU's 5 year run but personally I think the chances are greater neither will make the championship game.

Yep. I said it earlier this year. 39 I-AA playoff seasons 1978-2016. Never before have 2 teams that faced it other in the semis one season both faced each other in the NC game the following season. Could happen, but chance is very slim.

I understand people wanting to buy in Aug though (esp those not high enough up in Duke Club ranking to get through JMU). If in 39 years you've never totaled your vehicle or had your house burn down, you still buy home and auto insurance...

I'm not saying it's likely that BOTH will make the game. Just that I think it's highly likely that ONE of the two will make it. That should be enough demand to sell any extras.

BDK's comment is different than mine. I do think it is more likely neither make the championship than one or both do. For both - "highly" unlikely/longshot

I'd bet you on that one. I think it would be a surprise for neither to make it to the final. I do agree that for both to make it, everything would have to break perfectly, or for things to play out the way we project them to.