(08-02-2017 10:11 AM)Attackcoog Wrote: (08-02-2017 09:21 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (08-02-2017 09:14 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote: Conference strength needs to be a big factor - but I thought it already was?
I have believed for some time now that losses should be irrelevant... what should matter are wins (i.e. who did you really beat)
Losses are and always will be the most important factor in determining who gets what. Was that way in the historical poll and bowl system, was during the BCS era, and is now. You can beat Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson, and USC, but if you finish 7-5 you aren't going to be ranked ahead of a team that went 12-0 against a much softer schedule.
And for good reason - hard to explain away those losses.
Guess that's why a 4 loss team appeared in front of an undefeated team in the CFP poll. Truth is--I actually agree with you---I just thought is was interesting to point out just how rigged the beauty contest is.
There's a reason i picked 5 losses in my example, not 4. :)
But that said, surely there is a limit here, and it's basically categorical: Losses matter within a category, not outside of it. E.g., an FBS team that is 4-8 would hypothetically surely be ranked ahead of a Division II team that went 12-0, because FBS is considered categorically superior to Division II.
The problem the G5 have in making the CFP playoffs is that to a significant extent, the P5/G5 division is regarded by many, arguably most, decision makers as essentially categorical. Not to the extreme of the FBS/II example above, but it's probably worth at least 2 losses, minimum.
E.g., if AAC champ Memphis is 12-0, how many losses does SEC champ Alabama have to have to be ranked below them? I'd say 2 minimum, probably 3. Maybe even 4. And the AAC is generally the most highly-regarded G5, it would be worse for the Sun Belt champ.
The only G5 that can overcome that is a G5 that has wins over HIGHLY ranked P5. Not just any P5. That's what made Houston last year so tragic. Houston's schedule put them in a unique position, had they run the table they probably make the playoffs. But no G5 is likely to have that kind of schedule, with not one but two top-ranked P5 teams, again.