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How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
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_C2_ Offline
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Post: #31
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-29-2017 01:32 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  There are two ways I look at a team's market: base and incremental support. Base is the number of fans you'd have if the team turned into cellar dwellers, had no star players or coaches, removed promotional and marketing activity, etc. and were basically left with die-hards, parents, the band, and people who show up just to get drunk. Incremental is what happens when you win and do all those things, draw abnormally good home opponents (e.g. P5 teams for the G5), get alumni and students who don't like sports a ton to show up because it's 'the event' to go to, and so on. Yet incremental isn't equal across schools due to size, history, and competition, someone like Rice couldn't fill their stadium even if they won ten games a year for example.

Usually when people say a team has a good market they're saying their base is high and they're taking advantage of their incremental potential. It's interesting since most schools that struggle with support had a 'golden age' at some point where they took advantage of both to some extent by winning a bunch and it resulted in a bit of a local following for a while. Take Miami, we averaged over 25K butts in the seats in 2003 and were 'the team' of the Miami Valley (far north Cincy suburbs through Dayton) outside of OSU's general pull of course. Fast forward over a decade later and we're basically at our base with only devoted alumni and Oxford townies showing up, though it looks like that's turning around.

Rice couldn't fill their stadium's former capacity. If they start winning more and make some noise nationally, they could draw 45k in Houston.
07-29-2017 06:28 PM
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nzmorange Offline
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Post: #32
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-29-2017 06:20 PM)malenko2 Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 06:06 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 05:23 PM)Huskies12 Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 04:12 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 02:36 PM)malenko2 Wrote:  You are incorrect about Temple as usual. Just an FYI, we are no longer in the 90s/early 00s and the Temple you continually post about bears no resemblance to the Temple of today.

They havent been televised for decades and weren't during their time as a football only member in the Big East (and that is probably a good thing as we all know how they performed then).

They were on TV some of the time in the MAC and have only started to be televised regularly in football and basketball when they moved back to the Big East in 2012 and the current AAC.

1. I don't post about Temple enough to have a usual.
2. I said "most schools."
3. Temple absolutely was televised when they were in the BIG EAST contract. Pretending that Temple's first televised games were in 2012 is ludicrous. See below for proof to the contrary.
4. Nothing in your post actually disputes my comment that:
"A large population of indifferent people who happen to live near a school doesn't add any value."

Here's a Temple game from 1982:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ3LasQ7fHY

Here's a Temple game from 1987:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vygAiJOeuSA

Here's a Temple game from 1988:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6chpd-SUGP0

Here's a Temple game from 1991:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2z0JbQYxNCY

Here's a Temple game from 1992:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IgSmu18c_w

Here's a Temple game from 1994:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VOPQhIUz14

Here's a Temple game from 1995:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5oYFOpyp3I

Here's a Temple game from 1996:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBxhWd6B7V4

Here's a Temple game from 1997:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XY7PJWy3oQY

Here's a Temple game from 1999:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKmJIw_8FAI

Here's a Temple game from 1999:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kO0VgGatEY

Here's a Temple game from 2000:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzDEE2Kh8To

That took all of 2 minutes on Youtube, and I'd keep going, but I think I made my point.

Well it also isn't 2000. I know you don't like to admit that. Today's recruits were born in 2000

I stopped at 2000 because I figured nobody would be dumb enough to argue that Temple wasn't on TV in the 00's.

But since you're that guy, here ya go:

Here's a Temple game from 2001:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pKSpSHb7ho

Here's a Temple game from 2001:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLb1R5i8O-Q

Here's a Temple game from 2002:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tg0sfySD9vc

Here's a Temple game from 2002:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7blkxyDqdI0

Here's a Temple game from 2003:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcMOTBP57HM

Here's a Temple game from 2003:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1YLZog9jS8

Here's a Temple game from 2003:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5nRWQKzRQY

Here's a Temple game from 2004:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2vl3fxgNn4

Here's a Temple game from 2006:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UV0bzsLjMvo

Here's a Temple game from 2006:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zMTs2mLDqg

Here's a Temple game from 2007:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Bulmfi_Wfo

Here's a Temple game from 2008:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCHVY18AwHQ

Here's a Temple game from 2009:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=390OtJtik7w

Here's a Temple game from 2010:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYf-M3HcuJ0

Here's a Temple game from 2010:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTcsSa6mwGk

I assume that we can agree that today's recruits don't only remember the years between 2010 and when Temple rejoined the BIG EAST. Btw, these games are shockingly easy to find. This search literally took less than 45 seconds.

Whether I am dumb or not, you have a reading comprehension problem. Half the games you linked followed a similar pattern as the late 90s and does not mean it was shown regionally in Philadelphia. The other half were games at Penn State (with one year at the Linc) which I addressed. The last game is highlights against Nova in 2010 that was on ESPN3.

You're mistaking an understanding of statistics for having a reading comprehension problem. I said that TV companies have decades of information w/ most schools playing in FBS, and that Temple would be worth just as much money if it was located in Altoona vs. Philly.

You randomly responded by saying that I was wrong, and that Temple FB and BB was only regularly on TV from 2012 on (as if pointing out one specific school has any bearing on whether or not most schools act a certain way).

I spent roughly 3 minutes on Youtube.com and found about 30 televised football games. And, although I didn't include any basketball games, there are multiple basketball games for every football game.

Now you're randomly babbling about game locations, and complaining that my list is too diverse. Neither comment has any relevance as to whether or not TV execs have decades of data on most FBS teams, and neither comment even has any real bearing on whether or not TV execs have decades of data on Temple. The 30 games that I listed, which occurred during various years, on various channels, against various opponents, at various time of the year do.

****And FWIW, I don't know why you're so bent on fighting me on this point. I'm not saying Temple is worthless. I'm just saying that Temple earned it's worth by attracting viewers vs. being born lucky. Wants and desires are irrelevant to what's true in this debate, but I'd still rather say that my school earned what it has vs. was given something that it didn't deserve.****
(This post was last modified: 07-29-2017 06:32 PM by nzmorange.)
07-29-2017 06:29 PM
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Big Frog II Offline
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Post: #33
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-29-2017 04:00 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 03:22 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  I would say that while Dallas is still very much a no man's land, TCU has done a great job of capitalizing on the Big 12 and selling itself as Fort Worth's hometown team. There's just a different level of presence here now that wasn't there even 5-6 years ago when I first moved back to the area here with things like Go Purple Fridays program with the City of Fort Worth. TCU's strategy of trying to be Fort Worth's team rather than all of DFWs team (for now) is doing a great job of brand building which is often hard for small private schools.

Focusing on Fort Worth has helped TCU, but they're still limited in how many fans they can attract. I worked in Fort Worth for 10 years, and knew many people that wouldn't spend money to watch a university they couldn't afford to attend. I still believe most would agree, much of their attendance is driven by their Big 12 affiliation.

Our TV ratings are very good. If not the TV networks would have never signed off on us replacing A&M. We even do well in baseball. During last month's CWS we outdrew the Rangers one night and they outdrew us by 1/10 of point the next, and they were playing Boston. We have done a great job of raising the profile of our athletic department, because of this the networks take notice.
(This post was last modified: 07-29-2017 06:32 PM by Big Frog II.)
07-29-2017 06:31 PM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #34
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-29-2017 01:32 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  There are two ways I look at a team's market: base and incremental support. Base is the number of fans you'd have if the team turned into cellar dwellers, had no star players or coaches, removed promotional and marketing activity, etc. and were basically left with die-hards, parents, the band, and people who show up just to get drunk. Incremental is what happens when you win and do all those things, draw abnormally good home opponents (e.g. P5 teams for the G5), get alumni and students who don't like sports a ton to show up because it's 'the event' to go to, and so on. Yet incremental isn't equal across schools due to size, history, and competition, someone like Rice couldn't fill their stadium even if they won ten games a year for example.

Usually when people say a team has a good market they're saying their base is high and they're taking advantage of their incremental potential. It's interesting since most schools that struggle with support had a 'golden age' at some point where they took advantage of both to some extent by winning a bunch and it resulted in a bit of a local following for a while. Take Miami, we averaged over 25K butts in the seats in 2003 and were 'the team' of the Miami Valley (far north Cincy suburbs through Dayton) outside of OSU's general pull of course. Fast forward over a decade later and we're basically at our base with only devoted alumni and Oxford townies showing up, though it looks like that's turning around.

This makes sense. I think "market size" is a proxy for the team's ceiling. In other words, how big can the bandwagon get?

If Rutgers and West Virginia both go 7-5, West Virginia will sell more bowl tickets and bring more TV viewers. That's the base.

But if Rutgers and West Virginia both go 12-0, Rutgers will sell more bowl tickets and bring more TV viewers. That's the bandwagoners. Rutgers has more potential for bandwagon fans due to their bigger market.
07-29-2017 07:15 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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Post: #35
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-29-2017 05:40 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 04:00 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 03:22 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  I would say that while Dallas is still very much a no man's land, TCU has done a great job of capitalizing on the Big 12 and selling itself as Fort Worth's hometown team. There's just a different level of presence here now that wasn't there even 5-6 years ago when I first moved back to the area here with things like Go Purple Fridays program with the City of Fort Worth. TCU's strategy of trying to be Fort Worth's team rather than all of DFWs team (for now) is doing a great job of brand building which is often hard for small private schools.

Focusing on Fort Worth has helped TCU, but they're still limited in how many fans they can attract. I worked in Fort Worth for 10 years, and knew many people that wouldn't spend money to watch a university they couldn't afford to attend. I still believe most would agree, much of their attendance is driven by their Big 12 affiliation.

You can give credit to the new conference but the old perception is changing. I know so many folks here in FW who have adopted TCU as their team even with no affiliation. TCU gear is everywhere now and interest is growing.

I agree that there is definitely a ceiling with a small school but I also truly believe that TCU has the potential to be Texas' equivalent of Miami in terms of the private school people root for even with no affiliation. That will depend on continued FB success but Gary Patterson has already proven he can win the B12 and be in the playoff conversation

Although I no longer work in Fort Worth, I do pass thru there regularly. I never see much TCU gear. I'll see a billboard here and there, but not too many stickers on cars, or people in t-shirts.

I will say, Gary Patterson is a great coach. I don't particularly like him, but I can't deny his coaching ability. TCU has written the book on how to elevate your program out of the G5, and I truly respect that. I hope the North Texas AD has studied TCU's rise and can formulate a similar plan to elevate the Mean Green program. Not saying we have any kind of chance at the Big12, but I'd certainly like North Texas to grow in stature.
07-29-2017 08:31 PM
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_C2_ Offline
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Post: #36
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-29-2017 02:10 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  It's not like almost all of these schools haven't been televised for decades.

Temple's value would be the same if they were located in Altoona. A large population of indifferent people who happen to live near a school doesn't add any value.

Wrong, it only need be kept in perspective. If a team starts winning big, it activates a legion of casual fans, who in time could become die-hards to some extent if they win enough. Look at Miami.

If Temple, wins enough, they could carve a niche in Philadelphia. They'll never fill the Linc, perhaps not even if the Eagles move away but they could draw 50-60k fans if they stay in the polls yearly.
07-29-2017 09:06 PM
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nzmorange Offline
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Post: #37
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-29-2017 09:06 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 02:10 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  It's not like almost all of these schools haven't been televised for decades.

Temple's value would be the same if they were located in Altoona. A large population of indifferent people who happen to live near a school doesn't add any value.

Wrong, it only need be kept in perspective. If a team starts winning big, it activates a legion of casual fans, who in time could become die-hards to some extent if they win enough. Look at Miami.

If Temple, wins enough, they could carve a niche in Philadelphia. They'll never fill the Linc, perhaps not even if the Eagles move away but they could draw 50-60k fans if they stay in the polls yearly.

And if Temple won a lot and was located in the middle of a cow field, they'd be Penn State and have a football program that makes $100 million a year.

If's and but's are nice, but they aren't reality. Fans matter, not markets.
07-29-2017 10:03 PM
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_C2_ Offline
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Post: #38
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-29-2017 05:40 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  You can give credit to the new conference but the old perception is changing. I know so many folks here in FW who have adopted TCU as their team even with no affiliation. TCU gear is everywhere now and interest is growing.

I agree that there is definitely a ceiling with a small school but I also truly believe that TCU has the potential to be Texas' equivalent of Miami in terms of the private school people root for even with no affiliation. That will depend on continued FB success but Gary Patterson has already proven he can win the B12 and be in the playoff conversation

Fat chance...Miami's appeal is their location, the perception of that location (beaches and pretty women) and their teams came off as renegade outlaws. Plus, they won big almost every year for two decades and their name doesn't necessarily sound private except to really studious outsiders.

TCU doesn't have any of that and their name could actually draw backlash from anti-religious types, though that's a minor issue. Rice could do well from an underdog standpoint but no private school except Notre Dame, Miami, BYU or USC is gonna build a sizeable fanbase, at least in football.
07-29-2017 10:52 PM
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_C2_ Offline
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Post: #39
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
That's because Penn State is a state flagship. As we saw with Miami, who nearly dropped football before selling out the Orange Bowl regularly shortly thereafter, if you win in a major metro, you can attract fans at the snap of a finger. Temple plays in a big stadium, there's no reason they can't draw big crowds if they win every season.
07-29-2017 11:26 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #40
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-29-2017 07:15 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 01:32 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  There are two ways I look at a team's market: base and incremental support. Base is the number of fans you'd have if the team turned into cellar dwellers, had no star players or coaches, removed promotional and marketing activity, etc. and were basically left with die-hards, parents, the band, and people who show up just to get drunk. Incremental is what happens when you win and do all those things, draw abnormally good home opponents (e.g. P5 teams for the G5), get alumni and students who don't like sports a ton to show up because it's 'the event' to go to, and so on. Yet incremental isn't equal across schools due to size, history, and competition, someone like Rice couldn't fill their stadium even if they won ten games a year for example.

Usually when people say a team has a good market they're saying their base is high and they're taking advantage of their incremental potential. It's interesting since most schools that struggle with support had a 'golden age' at some point where they took advantage of both to some extent by winning a bunch and it resulted in a bit of a local following for a while. Take Miami, we averaged over 25K butts in the seats in 2003 and were 'the team' of the Miami Valley (far north Cincy suburbs through Dayton) outside of OSU's general pull of course. Fast forward over a decade later and we're basically at our base with only devoted alumni and Oxford townies showing up, though it looks like that's turning around.

This makes sense. I think "market size" is a proxy for the team's ceiling. In other words, how big can the bandwagon get?

If Rutgers and West Virginia both go 7-5, West Virginia will sell more bowl tickets and bring more TV viewers. That's the base.

But if Rutgers and West Virginia both go 12-0, Rutgers will sell more bowl tickets and bring more TV viewers. That's the bandwagoners. Rutgers has more potential for bandwagon fans due to their bigger market.

My knee-jerk reaction was "wait a minute, no ...", then I thought about it and it changed to "in this case, he could be right, good point".

But then I thought about a blue blood like Alabama. Rutgers is in a bigger market than Alabama, but no way on earth will a 12-0 Rutgers ever bring more fans, or draw more TV viewers, than a 12-0 Alabama.

That tells us that the sheer population of the city a school is in doesn't define their ceiling. Alabama has over the years established itself as a brand name that draws attention nationally, it transcends the limits of the population of Tuscaloosa, or even of the state of Alabama.

So while I think you are partially correct, there's also more at work here.
07-30-2017 12:08 AM
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